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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 15:38 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
French farmers and ALL the other industries in the EU have 26 other nations they can sell to + all the nations the EU has agreements with.

Oh, that's nice for them. Will they all be able to find new buyers in the days and weeks of the blockade scenario that we're currently discussing?

Or has your crystal ball produced yet another new truth for us to be afeared of? Honestly, it's hard to keep track of the many ways that we're going to be exterminated.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 15:43 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
Who's denying we have to build infrastructure, surely the whole part of becoming an independent country is to have it's own checks and trade deals, eea interim migrates alot of the crap until this infrastructure is in place and we can leave properly.


So why is my idea a bad one?

So you either build it now or you build it in 2021.

Either way you build it so why not build it now thus eliminating the risk if not getting EEA?

Your solution of wait and see then use the EEA period to build relies on the EEA period being agreed. This assumes that it will both be agreed and sufficient time will be given to build it.
Wait and see on what?

We should be in EFTA/EEA now, whilst putting in planning for the infrastructure, ready in time mostly for after the transition is over with a few fudges along the way.

You're the one whinging about any sort of deal, and then rowing back to say it has to be built, whilst not saying what sort of trading relationship you want.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 15:44 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:


This denial is why the brexiteers are getting walked all over by the remainers in parliament and the longer it goes, the softer the brexit becomes because you are allergic to detail.


Who is doing the denial though?

A lot of brexiteers are still thinking about magical solutions and had waiving any problems that are raised.

Oh yes super hard brexit no trucks no flights. So what are you going to do about the 40-45% food deficit? Almost always responded by a handwave or some other magical solution like US food (which has a 3 week lead time just to load the ships).

You're going to eat sovereignty right?

People tend to change their minds when the have empty stomachs.


You're pushing an open door...
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 15:51 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
Oh, that's nice for them. Will they all be able to find new buyers in the days and weeks of the blockade scenario



EU put sanctions on Russia they managed it.

Also blockades work against choke points. France -> Uk lots of choke points (the ports).

There are these things vehicles run on called roads. There are many of these things from France going into Germany, Italy, Span, Andorra and Swtizerland. Therefore there are viable alternatives that exist today and now.

UK? Port blockade are there viable existing alternatives?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 15:55 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
Wait and see on what?

We should be in EFTA/EEA now, whilst putting in planning for the infrastructure, ready in time mostly for after the transition is over with a few fudges along the way.

You're the one whinging about any sort of deal, and then rowing back to say it has to be built, whilst not saying what sort of trading relationship you want.



I never said anything about a deal as above.

I just said plan it and build it NOW. Not in 2 years time. My stance is build regardless of any deal or transition period.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 16:22 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
EU put sanctions on Russia they managed it.

You mean the Russian embargo on select European goods, of course.

Yes, they did muddle through that 1 year embargo of which they had prior warning.

Curiously, Russia managed somehow to survive as well, and farming is thriving there now because of it.

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM.
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Val
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PostPosted: 16:45 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Today is the day, the UK government finally has produced the white paper on NI backstop.

It proposes new kind of time-limitation that does not have an actual date and something will happen sometimes after negotiations maybe.

tldr; It expect things. Don't hold your breath. It's not something legally binding.

The only danger here is EU negotiation team will die laughing when reading it.

You have been warned:

https://i.imgur.com/YGW0Sik.jpg
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 16:53 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:


DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM.



Russia is 100% self sufficient in energy and it is almost self sufficient in food as well. They have land to spare too.


You also might want to note Russia went through 2 terrible collapses a hyperinflation event and a great crash in 2008.

So yes Russia muddled through but not unscathed.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 17:32 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

A good dose of spirit of the blitz will toughen us up a bit.

Fast forward your crystal ball. After the EU blockades us out of petty spite and a few billion people die in the cannibal uprising, we'll love them for it, right? There won't be any political repercussions?
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 17:58 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Rogerborg wrote:
Oh, that's nice for them. Will they all be able to find new buyers in the days and weeks of the blockade scenario



EU put sanctions on Russia they managed it.

Also blockades work against choke points. France -> Uk lots of choke points (the ports).

There are these things vehicles run on called roads. There are many of these things from France going into Germany, Italy, Span, Andorra and Swtizerland. Therefore there are viable alternatives that exist today and now.

UK? Port blockade are there viable existing alternatives?


I hope they do blockade us, but I don't think we will be that fortunate. A blockade will set Brexit in firm concrete, show the true colours of the EU for all to see, and add even more validity to the pro-Brexit case!

We already have proof of this too. What was done to Greece was a massive bonus for the leave campaign!

The strongest armed forces in the EU are the UKs, and by a decent margin too, so any forceful blockade would be impossible. Indeed Britain can hurt the EU countries massively simply by stating it will only offer them "non-lethal" support through NATO. Poor old Poland would probably get borrowed by Russia 2 days later. Many of these countries have lots of "stuff", but the effectiveness of them just doesn't come close.
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Kris
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PostPosted: 18:12 - 07 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im-a-Ridah wrote:


I hope they do blockade us, but I don't think we will be that fortunate. A blockade will set Brexit in firm concrete, show the true colours of the EU for all to see, and add even more validity to the pro-Brexit case!


Would be interesting just to see how long they manage to blockade the ports whilst slowly drowning in violent Somalis and Syrians. I give them two days before the Frogs are practically driving the trains to the UK themselves..
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Val
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PostPosted: 18:37 - 11 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK people quiz time, take a wild guess Leave or Remain?

https://i.imgur.com/pME7p6k.jpg
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Johnnythefox
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PostPosted: 19:03 - 11 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

remain? looks the sort
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 19:37 - 11 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Johnnythefox wrote:
remain? looks the sort


I agree, he looks like he's taking the piss out of Brexiteers.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 19:58 - 11 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like urmum. Shocked
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 20:23 - 11 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
Looks like urmum. Shocked


He's much prettier.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 21:28 - 11 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://i.imgur.com/zPaJ6Hw.png
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Nexus Icon
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PostPosted: 13:59 - 12 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
OK people quiz time, take a wild guess Leave or Remain?

https://i.imgur.com/pME7p6k.jpg


He looks like he either needs a shit or has just involuntarily had one.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:21 - 15 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Call me a dumbski (politically, I am), but exactly why would a "no deal" exit from the EU be such a disaster, as so many say it would? What would actually happen/not happen in that scenario?
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kippyzona
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PostPosted: 12:31 - 15 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Everything that is related to flight would need to be inspected by the yanks to see if it's safe enough.
We are talking the planes, the trolleys for the food the airports.
Everything.
We would have to pay for them to do it.
That's just one thing but it is a pretty big thing.
No doubt someone will be along ro say that Trump would just say don't worry about it.
That's not how it works.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:39 - 15 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another thing. if the EU kicks us out of the Galileo sat nav system, they'd have to compensate us (to the tune of something like £1bn) because of the investment the UK has put into it, wouldn't they? Not heard anything about this.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:28 - 15 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
Another thing. if the EU kicks us out of the Galileo sat nav system, they'd have to compensate us (to the tune of something like £1bn) because of the investment the UK has put into it, wouldn't they? Not heard anything about this.


Oh plenty going on about it:

The fun thing is the UK in 2005 said that 3rd parties should be blocked from accessing the system.

Citation

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200607/ldselect/ldeucom/187/18770.htm
Quote:

NEGOTIATIONS WITH THIRD COUNTRIES

The Austrian Presidency expected to bring forward Council Conclusions on co-operation with third countries in the PPP phase. These have been delayed pending further discussion in the Commission on the legal position, and whether it is desirable that third countries become members of the Galileo Supervisory Authority. Under existing agreements, China and Israel are members of the Galileo Joint Undertaking. They, Norway, and Switzerland have requested membership of the GSA.

In the preliminary discussions, we have stressed that membership, if granted, should mean sharing liabilities as well as costs. We would oppose giving access to the PRS governmental service to third countries. A lunchtime discussion may take place at the March Transport Council.

Several other countries have expressed interest in some form of co-operation, including Saudi Arabia, Australia and New Zealand. It is agreed that the Commission will not seek new negotiating mandates until agreement has been reached on the principles.




Even stranger is that Germany and France wanted it to be an ESA project, not an EU project. The UK demanded it be an EU project. Had it been an ESA project then this discussion wouldn't be happening.
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Mart_er6
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PostPosted: 18:21 - 15 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:

Galileo stuff


The development of the galileo system/satellites was typical of the EU: a bureacratic mess with contractors awarded work not on technical capability but on a 'geo-return' basis. This meant that work was dished out to a country's companies on a basis of how much each government put in rather than true technical capability. No surprise too then that the project overspend is measured in billions of euros. No surprise either that there are technical problems in orbit (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38664225).

Then there's the pointlessness of it all: it provides little more functionality than the existing GPS & Glonass systems (nevermind the Chinese system going up rapidly now)

Then there's the military argument which is a bit tenuous as GPS & Galileo signals are very weak and can be jammed relatively easily; first thing to be useless in a war. Furthermore, cruise missiles and similar can navigate perfectly well without GPS using dead reckoning and terrain maps. (because otherwise they'd be susceptible to the jamming and get lost!)

Anyway TL:DR: Galileo is at least a beige elephant and should not be a blocker to any Brexit deal/negotiation (and we shouldn't consider building our own)
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 09:25 - 16 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also: why would any device manufacturer choose to use Galileo instead of GPS? Unless they were... ah, right, unless they were required to by the EUSSR.

I am with this prediction: [Crystal ball owner] believes a transition deal will be agreed and implemented, but once the UK comes to the end of the transition period, Britain will stay in the bloc.

All signs point to Remoan.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:21 - 16 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:
Another thing. if the EU kicks us out of the Galileo sat nav system, they'd have to compensate us (to the tune of something like £1bn) because of the investment the UK has put into it, wouldn't they? Not heard anything about this.


Oh plenty going on about it etc...:


You didn't answer my question. Why you posted what you did instead is beyond me.
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