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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Val
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PostPosted: 10:23 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:



So do you think they must have voted Leave because they're all just a bunch of half-wits bent on self-destruction? That's an irrational assumption. Isn't it more likely to be an understandable rejection of globalisation by a community hit hard by its effects?



Let me make that clear. I agree with you 100% that one of the main reasons for Brexit vote was anti-globalisation feelings. Absolutely agree with that:

https://i.imgur.com/Eu4YrNy.png

What I don't agree is to say that we can reverse globalisation and go back to the good old times. No offence but that is just ignorance, in 21st century everything is global now.

UK cannot grow it's own food, make it's own furniture, or cars, or motorcycles, or planes. In 21st century we have global supply chain. I mean even North Korea the ultimate "let's make or own stuff" country failed at that.

Because of that fact there is no better deal for the UK then current EU membership. And the main reason why Brexit is failing. Brexit is imaginary bright future which conflicts with the reality of the world the way it is.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 10:27 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

tl;dr you're an idiot.
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Val
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PostPosted: 10:46 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
tl;dr you're an idiot.

Another scientific proof quitlings are geniuses. Laughing

To blame are all of the Brexit leaders that lied and organised Brexit like Gove with his anti-expert lies and Johnson.

Brexit is national stupidity, modern version of ludites enabled by the leaders of Vote Leave.

https://i.imgur.com/8ZwxQUA.png
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 12:35 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok, I think I get the level of debate Val is looking for.
Here you go;

https://rightside2016.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/geldof-566500.jpg
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 12:57 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Ok, I think I get the level of debate Val is looking for.
Here you go;

https://rightside2016.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/geldof-566500.jpg


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Sload
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PostPosted: 13:02 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/13/tory-brexiteers-plan-2019-britain-conservative?CMP=share_btn_fb
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Val
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PostPosted: 14:12 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

What the EU thinks about no deal Brexit.?

tldr; UK can't have EU rights with no obligations.

Quote:
Flexibility and creativity, yes – but on the condition of a fair balance between rights and obligations for everyone.

My country Denmark will be relatively hard hit by a “no-deal”. Already a year ago the cost of a no-deal scenario was estimated to a loss over medium-term of around 1% of GDP corresponding to the IMFs newly published estimate. Not a welcome contribution, but manageable. Not very different to the loss already suffered by the sanctions towards Russia and their counter sanctions. A global recession created by a fully fleshed trade war with the US would be more costly to Denmark than any form of Brexit.


https://esharp.eu/debates/the-uk-and-europe/flexibility-and-creativity--but-for-everyone
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Ste
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PostPosted: 14:14 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
tldr; UK can't have EU rights with no obligations.

That's been obvious since the beginning.
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Val
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PostPosted: 18:47 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
Val wrote:
tldr; UK can't have EU rights with no obligations.

That's been obvious since the beginning.


Not to Leave camp. EU will give us all we want cause of German car manufactirers and "they need us more" are still peddled in full scale all over the UK, from UK government and here from the BCF folk. The Chequers BS is based on that. UK government, Theresa May, Liam Fox and David Davis threaten EU on daily basis to have no deal if EU doesn't accept cake and eat it approach.

The whole article is written in response to such threats.

So it may be obvious to you and me, but not to most.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 19:15 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Continuing to trade because it's mutually beneficial isn't a right, it's just common sense.
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Johnnythefox
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PostPosted: 20:26 - 09 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="Val"]
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:


Let me make that clear. I agree with you 100% that one of the main reasons for Brexit vote was anti-globalisation feelings. Absolutely agree with that:

https://i.imgur.com/Eu4YrNy.png

What I don't agree is to say that we can reverse globalisation and go back to the good old times. No offence but that is just ignorance, in 21st century everything is global now.

UK cannot grow it's own food, make it's own furniture, or cars, or motorcycles, or planes. In 21st century we have global supply chain. I mean even North Korea the ultimate "let's make or own stuff" country failed at that.

Because of that fact there is no better deal for the UK then current EU membership. And the main reason why Brexit is failing. Brexit is imaginary bright future which conflicts with the reality of the world the way it is.



Someone needs to tell JC
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Val
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PostPosted: 12:34 - 11 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile the pound is down again.

Devaluation of the pound has always failed to help UK industry and it will fail again. Customers buy primarily on quality.

Despite the falling pound UK trade ballance is getting worst. UK may spend less abroad, but over the last two years of a falling £ balance of trade has worsened.

Bad news for already declining manufacturing. The collapsing £ pushes up the price of raw materials and components that are part of manufacturing and which are not/cannot be produced here.

Finally UK companies and assets become more vulnerable to foreign asset strippers. Good news for Trump are suppose.

Pound falling makes shop prices go higher. The Brexit currency depreciation makes people poorer, both when overseas and via imported inflation.

The summer holiday will not be ever the same.

Falling pound is not all bad news. There may be a house bubble crash coming your way. No deal crash will mean 30% house price crash.

That is the good news. UK house prices are way overvalued.

Other then that all will be fine. In 50 years according to the optimist Mogg, or in 100 years according to certified idiot Lord Digby Jones.

It's worth it according to Rogeborg. Because of the kids. I see some point here. Starving people is a neat way to fight obesity and reduce pressure on NHS.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 12:44 - 11 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trade deficit got wider:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkOgbUJU0AYDK2n.jpg


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkOhOrpW4AEM65B.jpg


Source ONS : Reason? - Exports fell


Also

Jim Ratcliffe pro-brexiterer has shown his confidence in BREXIT and the UK by leaving to Monaco.

And moving one of his businesses to the Netherlands and Germany.
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Last edited by Itchy on 12:47 - 11 Aug 2018; edited 1 time in total
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 12:46 - 11 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

It appears the Daily Mail has just realised that if we don't want freedom of movement then it'll apply to us as well and we'd have to apply to get visas every time we want to visit the mainland.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 12:57 - 11 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Source ONS : Reason? - Exports fell.


?

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-kingdom-exports@2x.png?s=uktbttex&v=201808100953v&d1=20080101&d2=20181231
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:07 - 11 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
?


You can read it here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/june2018

They say:

Quote:


#1The total UK trade deficit widened £4.7 billion to £8.6 billion in the three months to June 2018, due mainly to falling goods exports and rising goods imports.

#2 Removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit widened £4.1 billion in the three months to June 2018; falling goods export volumes were the main factor as prices generally increased.


We import the things needed to make our exports. That makes the currency drop much less helpful for them. Some back of the envelope maths means 10% currency drop increases exports by 4%.

So while initially exports increased. The stuff used to make the exports also increased.

So to maintain profit margins prices had to go up, except prices going up erases the advantage of the currency falling.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 13:25 - 11 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Exports fell (in the 2nd quarter).


True, but June was up.

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/historical@2x.png?s=UKTBTTEX&v=20180810095300&d1=20170101&d2=20181231&type=column
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 17:48 - 11 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
Nobby the Bastard wrote:
It appears the Daily Mail has just realised that if we don't want freedom of movement then it'll apply to us as well and we'd have to apply to get visas every time we want to visit the mainland.


Sorry, but that's nonsense. Prior to 1992, before the EU was born, you just needed a passport, not a Visa to visit mainland Europe.


Pretty sure its a relic of the common market. Which became the single market. Which we are leaving
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Val
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PostPosted: 00:26 - 12 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

UK manufacturing in recession now according to the latest data from ONS:

https://i.imgur.com/KYcoh7D.png

Anything you'll ever need to know about UK and EU:

https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-twitter-thread-political-analyst-european-union-united-kingdom-united-states-america-7834846
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 01:46 - 12 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
UK manufacturing in recession now according to the latest data from ONS.

?
Perspective again -

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-kingdom-gdp-from-manufacturing@2x.png?s=unitedkingdpfroman&v=201808100903v&d1=20130101&d2=20181231&type=column
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kawakid
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PostPosted: 20:47 - 12 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is it me or why is it that Val and Itchy care so much.

They are both foreign, the vote nothing to do with them really.

My wifes Irish, if Ireland voted leave and left the EU, I wouldn't give a f.k nor would I keep going on about it and postiing on it.

I've followed this thread for a while and wondered, why people care.

I voted to leave and I except there will be an economic hit, I 100% predicted there to be one. I just struggle to understand why people care and go on about it so much.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 20:54 - 12 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

kawakid wrote:
Is it me or why is it that Val and Itchy care so much.

They are both foreign, the vote nothing to do with them really.

My wifes Irish, if Ireland voted leave and left the EU, I wouldn't give a f.k nor would I keep going on about it and postiing on it.

I've followed this thread for a while and wondered, why people care.

I voted to leave and I except there will be an economic hit, I 100% predicted there to be one. I just struggle to understand why people care and go on about it so much.


Because they live here? Rolling Eyes
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:12 - 12 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

kawakid wrote:
Why is it that Val and Itchy care so much.

I think there's a degree of this;
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iMdS_C247bU
Because Leavers are all ignorant and racist, right?

kawakid wrote:
I voted to leave and I except there will be an economic hit.

Agreed. It's not all about the economy, and that's what they don't understand.
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