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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Nexus Icon
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PostPosted: 13:38 - 20 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
Unemployment at it's lowest since 1975, wages up by an average of 2%, productivity up - this Brexit thing is proving to be disastrous! Sad


To be fair, it hasn't yet happened.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 18:53 - 20 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

T Hickmott via Val wrote:
IMPORTANT NOTES ON METHODOLOGY.

Job losses are attributed to Brexit if they meet one or all of the following conditions:

Anything really.


Quote:
I am campaigning to stop Brexit, not to furnish a debate.

I can tell you the GSK one had nothing to do with Brexit.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 20:55 - 20 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

"I'm just curious as to what any remainers / Brexiters think will happen if / when we Brexit. My guess is: "

My guess is that after the posturing and willy-waving, in the next few months that there will be a trading arrangement on leaving, it won't be a bad one for the UK or the EU, and that things will sort themselves out after a year or so.
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Nexus Icon
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PostPosted: 13:22 - 21 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've had no really strong feelings either way (certainly not strong enough to protest or usually to even dive headfirst into a BCF debate) but I will say this;

I'm yet to meet someone who voted "Leave" that can actually tell me what is going to happen when we do, what plans are in place or can even be put into place to mitigate any downsides of leaving, and how we are ever likely to be better off. The rationale has always been about the things they don't like about being in the EU (often not actually a consequence of being a member state), rather than the things that will be better once outside.

I'm happy to suck it and see but, being fully aware that the devil you know is often, indeed, better, I don't expect great things.

I am now actually leaning towards being pro a "People's Vote", whatever that entails.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 13:57 - 21 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nexus Icon wrote:
I am now actually leaning towards being pro a "People's Vote", whatever that entails.


That entails an undoing of the original democratic vote.

Options proposed seem to be:

1) Leave with deal.
2) Leave with no deal.
3) Stay in EU.

It can't really happen. We've already had opotion 3; That nice Davey Boy and his mob said before the referendum that there would not be a second vote, a position reflected by this government.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 13:58 - 21 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nexus Icon wrote:
I've had no really strong feelings either way (certainly not strong enough to protest or usually to even dive headfirst into a BCF debate) but I will say this;

I'm yet to meet someone who voted "Leave" that can actually tell me what is going to happen when we do, what plans are in place or can even be put into place to mitigate any downsides of leaving, and how we are ever likely to be better off. The rationale has always been about the things they don't like about being in the EU (often not actually a consequence of being a member state), rather than the things that will be better once outside.

I'm happy to suck it and see but, being fully aware that the devil you know is often, indeed, better, I don't expect great things.

I am now actually leaning towards being pro a "People's Vote", whatever that entails.


Yes, looks good in principle but it has been biased for the remainers.

The choices are......

1. Remain. Obviously all remainers will vote this.

2. Agree with the Checkers deal. Some Brexit people will go with it because they think it's the best deal going.

3. No Deal. The rest of the Brexit will vote for that.

So, using random figures - say 10000 vote remain, 8000 vote no deal and 3000 vote checkers deal, remain win, even though 11000 actually voted to leave.

It's a total con designed for remain to win by splitting the leave vote.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 14:25 - 21 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nexus Icon wrote:
I'm yet to meet someone who voted "Leave" that can actually tell me what is going to happen when we do, what plans are in place or can even be put into place to mitigate any downsides of leaving, and how we are ever likely to be better off.


I have this morning had a nice long letter from my MP, in reply to a question I asked him.

He is a Leave voter, along the "WTO rules exit" line, but has interesting points to make about the Checquers' agreement[1] (which shows what we want to hapen), and says that:

o - It allows us to negotiate, sign and enact independent trade arrangements, which we cannot currently do;
o - We will join the (new) CTTPP group's free-trade zone.
o - We will share a free trade zone with the EU, in which common standards for goods sold within that area would adhere to (NOT meaning that goods for internal or non-EU trade are subject to EU regulations).
o - We would not stay in the current customs union/single market.
o - It keeps the UK intact.
o - It is far more likely that this agreement will successfully transit parliament than a "no deal" Brexit paper, and this gives us the vast majority of what we want from Brexit.

The paper goes to the EU in October. He says it's possible that they will try to change it and ask for concessions, but that will not be acceptable, and so it is good that the UK is further planning for a No Deal outcome which is unlikely but possible if the EU remains intransigent.

Letter received yesterday.




[1] You can read the Chequers' agreement here:

THE FUTURE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE EUROPEAN UNION:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/725288/The_future_relationship_between_the_United_Kingdom_and_the_European_Union.pdf
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 15:03 - 21 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the UK will need to buy a bigger toilet as the EU will tear us a new asshole and it won't be certain where it will come out when we take a shit
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Val
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PostPosted: 14:17 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
Hot off the back of "we're all going to starve to death", today's Project Fear anti Brexit propaganda, on the radio news is....

"We're going to run out of medicine and all die of nasty diseases if we leave the EU"...

Yeah, we were all born yesterday and can't see the clear propaganda there... Rolling Eyes


What propaganda? The people are literally dying because of Brexit already:

Quote:
“We have had to close one third of our in-patient NHS beds through Brexit.” Palliative care doctor, Rachel Clarke, wants to remain in the EU, and would like another referendum.


https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1031466841976139776

According to NHS Digital more then 10 000 EU NHS doctors and nurses left the NHS because of Brexit racism and xenophobia.
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Val
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PostPosted: 14:25 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:


So, using random figures - say 10000 vote remain, 8000 vote no deal and 3000 vote checkers deal, remain win, even though 11000 actually voted to leave.

It's a total con designed for remain to win by splitting the leave vote.


You are making a very good point which shows why the 2016 EU referendum was not fair. The Leave vote was split already. Different leave voters voted leave assuming WRONGLY what will be the outcome.

For example 65% of leave voters expected to stay in the Single market which is an option completely denied to them now.

https://i.imgur.com/a9fb26F.jpg

Your point shows exactly why 2016 EU referndum was not fair and misleading and why we need peoples vote where people will vote for the actual outcomes.

If you don't have a majority for no deal option - well tough luck, that is exactly how democracy works. The option that have biggest support wins.
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Last edited by Val on 16:49 - 22 Aug 2018; edited 1 time in total
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DrSnoosnoo
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PostPosted: 14:27 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
What propaganda? The people are literally dying because of Brexit already:

Quote:
“We have had to close one third of our in-patient NHS beds through Brexit.” Palliative care doctor, Rachel Clarke, wants to remain in the EU, and would like another referendum.


https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1031466841976139776

According to NHS Digital more then 10 000 EU NHS doctors and nurses left the NHS because of Brexit racism and xenophobia.


did she provide a source to bolster her claim of a third of the beds closed due to brexit?

Regarding people leaving because of racism and xenophobia,


Quote:
Around 9,800 staff recorded as being from the EU left NHS England between June 2016 and June 2017. That’s around 7% of all staff leaving in that year.

These figures are at record levels in recent years, as are the levels of staff from the UK leaving the NHS. But these levels were also increasing before the referendum.

None of these figures tell us whether the staff left the country or not, or whether their reason for leaving was in any way connected to the EU referendum result.


https://fullfact.org/health/nhs-staff-eu-one-year-referendum/

I think we should more worry about why the other 93% are leaving the NHS, they seem to be the biggest chunk we should worry about retaining rather than basing our efforts purely on the where the individual states they are from, or identify themselves as.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 14:53 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

But the way you want it Val, you'd fragment the Leave vote with multiple options, inevitably making Remain the majority. It's a fix!
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Val
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PostPosted: 16:49 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
But the way you want it Val, you'd fragment the Leave vote with multiple options, inevitably making Remain the majority. It's a fix!


What you just said here because the option that you don't like will most likely have a majority it's a fix. I'd say it is what it is, it's the reality of what people want.

Are you saying that if there are 4 options for something and you ask people to chose 1 that is not democractic?

But it is democractic to lie to people that they may have options 1,2 and 3 together, and after the vote you say to them sorry option 1 and 2 are out of the question you will have option 3 anyway.

That does not make any sense mate. It is not democratic or fair in any shape or form.

And again you are making a very good point which shows why the 2016 EU referendum was not fair. The Leave vote was split already. Different leave voters voted leave assuming WRONGLY what will be the outcome.
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DrSnoosnoo
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PostPosted: 16:55 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
What you just said here because the option that you don't like will most likely have a majority it's a fix. I'd say it is what it is, it's the reality of what people want.

Are you saying that if there are 4 options for something and you ask people to chose 1 that is not democractic?

But it is democractic to lie to people that they may have options 1,2 and 3 together, and after the vote you say to them sorry option 1 and 2 are out of the question you will have option 3 anyway.

That does not make any sense mate. It is not democratic or fair in any shape or form.

And again you are making a very good point which shows why the 2016 EU referendum was not fair. The Leave vote was split already. Different leave voters voted leave assuming WRONGLY what will be the outcome.


You're a fool. Options 1-3 are only on the table if leave is voted for.

Remain could well be sub divided. Remain exactly how we are. Remain but progress towards ever closer union. Remain, but let's just go the whole hog and adopt the Euro and be a vassal state now.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 18:46 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
Something you will not find on Brexit Broadcast Corporation news.

Brexit job losses 169895 from 259 companies and organisations.

Despite UK still in the EU. And Corbyn saying there will not a single job lost.

Company Jobs lost:
The Big Bloomer Co 9
Missguided 49
Citibank 250
Survey of 200+ travel companies 25000
Jupiter Asset Management 5
Navfor (EU piracy task force) 40
MPac 6
Gaucho (remainder of group) 800
Crantock Bakery 109
Alan Nutall Partnership 245
The Original Factory Shop 190
Barclays 50
Heartland Interiors 42
Homebase 303
Ashurst 20
Young's Seafood 1650
Prescott & Conran 100
Henri Lloyd 128
Wrightbus 95
All Leisure 20
Rolls Royce 4000
Poundworld 3500
Morgan Stanley 400
Lloyd's of London 40
Carluccio's 500
Carphone Warehouse 1750
GSK 200
McBride 117
Bradford College 75
Saints Osmund and Andrew's RC Primary School 11
Discovery Channel 100
Homebase 2640
Thomson Reuters 20
Fruit of the Loom 70
Bet365 1000
The Pencil Case Co 1
Cau (Gaucho) 700
Yaskawa 250
Wickes 100
Aim Hire 100
Spendlers 97
Delisserie 25
WuXi construction jobs 700
WuXi 400
PCI Pharma 130
Toyella 1
Calvatron Brands 1000
Bank of America 125
Aptiv 250
Bench 176
Staffordshire children's services 37
Glen Dimplex 300
Poundworld 1500
Warren Evans 289
Cloggs 18
Lawrence Automotive Interiors 470
Lana Bambini 1
Jaguar Land Rover 1000
2 Sisters 450
EU Commission and Council 426
Five Star Fish 400
Tulip Foods 170
EU Parliament 90
Carpetright 300
Linwoods 90
Northwood Hygiene Products 65
Johnson Tiles 50
Ultimo lingerie 11
Barclays 150
Pinneys 450
Princes (offsets Pinneys) 200
Coca Cola 220
Coca Cola 54

Carillion 239
Carillion 95
EU Youth Orchestra 200
Vauxhall dealerships 3800
Aesica 45
Unilever 50
Deutsche Bank 4000
JP Morgan 1000
UBS 180
Severfield 70
Standard Chartered 20
New Look 980
Goldman Sachs 13
Peter's Pies 90
Prezzo 1500
East (fashion retail) 314
Maplin 2335
Ryanair / Glasgow Airport 300
Credit Suisse 250
Carillion 230
Sensata 125
Landis+Gyr 288
Byron Burger 420
Jamie's Italian 250
Sockmonkey Studio 5
Carillion 152
Wrightbus 95
Carillion 59
Jamie's Italian 200
Salford Council 100
Carillion 101
Morrisons 1500
Lloyds Bank 465
Carillion 452
Carillion 377
Brush 270
B&Q 200
Hampshire Police 160
Salford Council 9
Coca Cola 500
Jaguar Land Rover 24800
Tesco 800
Jaguar Land Rover 150
Galileo Security Surveillance Centre 100
General Electric 120
Vauxhall 250
Colman's Mustard 73
Goldman Sachs 20
Wolseley 800
GSK 99
Palmer & Harvey 1100
Palmer & Harvey 400
Vivergo Fuels 150
Multiyork 547
Feather & Black 123
Palmer & Harvey 2500
Interserve 200
Swindon Council 420
Newcastle Council 40
Northampton County Council 16
Transport for London 1400
Arcadia Group 300
Lloyds Pharmacies 1000
New Look 260
Once The App 30
Norfolk Police 53
Misco 300
Sainsbury's 2000
Vauxhall 400
Lush 80
BAE Shipyards 1000
Cummins Generator Technologies 500
Britvic 242
John Sisk & Sons 200
Gurit 70
Monarch Airlines 1858
Credit Agricole 50
Mitie 480
Redring Xpelair 150
Salford Council 14
Asda 300
Grain D'Or 250
Witter Towbars 94
DWP 800
Southern Salads 260
Wilko 4000
Sainsbury's 1000
Delphi Diesel Systems 520
Ace Winches 65
Greencore Group 400
European Banking Authority 160
Coventry Council 100
Mondi Excelsior 80
SNC-Lavalin Atkins 90
Bristow Helicopters 15
Tesco 1200
West London College 14
Birmingham City Council 120
Brintons 60
Credit Suisse 1500
Morgan Tucker 65
Telford College 70
Aberystwyth University 150
Grundfos 50
University of Manchester 171
Price & Company 50
Centrica 1500
Bath College 40
Viking Kids 4
Travelex 75
Western Union 50
Ruddocks of Lincoln 20
British Steel Special Profiles 70
Nestle (Blue Riband) 300
Foster & Partners 100
Diageo 105
Pulse Flexible Packaging 197
BPI Protec 70
Store Twenty One 1000
Jaeger 680
GE Power Conversion 243
Great Plains 100
2 Sisters 200
Matalan 50
Tesco 3000
European Medicines Agency 900
Scottish Police 200
Brantano 1086
Marshall Aviation 126
Lloyd's of London 100
Jones Bootmaker 260
M&F Distribution 90
Ordinance Survey 70
Plumstead Manor School 34
Lloyds Bank 981
Coty (Rimmel London) 450
Restaurant Group 1080
Johnson Tiles 90
Budgens 815
Crieff Hydro 1200
Heriot Watt University 100
Sainsbury's 400
Welcome Foods 300
WNG Group 72
Riverside Bakery (Addo Foods) 44
Walker's Crisps 380
Ford 1160
John Lewis 773
Tulip Foods 110
Archant 23
Archant 7
Liverpool Council 300
Tesco 207
Honeywell 66
Post Office 12
Formal Affair 5
Waitrose 200
Bernard Matthews 150
RBS 259
NHS 10000
Newcastle Council 100
Wakefield Council 100
Walsall Council 420
CSC 1599
Greggs 100
Jobcentre 750
Greggs 140
Clydesdale Bank 400
HSBC 1000
Prosecutions Service 30
Quickfit 521
Sefton Council 450
Muller 400
Elanco 140
Post Office 300
Tesco 1015
Jamie's Italian 120
BBC 100
Hewden 251
Rivington Biscuits 123
DHL 520
Doosan Babcock 470
Airbus 54
Pfizer 270
Pfizer 100
ITV 120

https://www.facebook.com/BrexitWrecksIt


Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

So uhh, how many coca cola jobs?

MEP job losses, really? Laughing
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 19:05 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
But the way you want it Val, you'd fragment the Leave vote with multiple options, inevitably making Remain the majority. It's a fix!


What you just said here because the option that you don't like will most likely have a majority it's a fix. I'd say it is what it is, it's the reality of what people want.

Are you saying that if there are 4 options for something and you ask people to chose 1 that is not democractic?

DrSnoosnoo wrote:
Val wrote:
Options 1-3 are only on the table if leave is voted for.

Thumbs Up

Val wrote:
But is it democractic to lie to people that they may have options 1,2 and 3 together, and after the vote you say to them sorry


You've just unwittingly agreed that it is not democratic to give people 2 options, and after the vote you say to them sorry, option 1 is out of the question, choose again. Yet that's what you're hoping for.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 19:11 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:

Your point shows exactly why 2016 EU referndum was not fair and misleading and why we need peoples vote where people will vote for the actual outcomes.


We can't have a second referendum. Why?

All households in the UK got a referendum leaflet, from the government, which was very heavilt pro-EU, despite the fact that Mr Cameron got nothing worthwhile in his "renegotiation".

The referendum leaflet spelt out what the intention was, and contained the phrase: "This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide".

Prior to the referendum, Mr Cameron had explicitly stated "There will be no second vote", a statement with which the then Cabinet agreed.

We have had the referendum, and made the decision. Since then, we have been constantly bombarded with half-truths, outright lies, threats, and misinformation to spread FUD. We could not have an honest and "straight" referendum now.

Antidemocratic sources have given a great deal of cash and other resource to overturn the original decision. In a democratic society, that should not be allowed. Everyone's vote should carry equal weight.

We're already committed to leaving, by virtue of the legal changes and projects that have been made and are in progress right now, both in the EU and here in the UK.

Another "People's vote" would be acceptable though, to decide whether we should accept any leaving arrengement made, or leave on global WTO rules. I am not sure, however, that this would give any positive outcome, and quite frankly I would rather have a trading arrangement than none.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 19:14 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
For example 65% of leave voters expected to stay in the Single market


Not unless they didn't bother to read the rather simple "referendum leaflet" they were all sent, and which you can still read online, here:

Why the Government believes that voting to remain in the European Union is the best decision for the UK.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 19:19 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:

Quote:
“We have had to close one third of our in-patient NHS beds through Brexit.” Palliative care doctor, Rachel Clarke, wants to remain in the EU, and would like another referendum.


https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1031466841976139776

According to NHS Digital more then 10 000 EU NHS doctors and nurses left the NHS because of Brexit racism and xenophobia.


Dr Clarke is misguided and mistaken at the very best, and I cannot find any reputable and detailed evidence saying "10 000 EU NHS doctors and nurses left the NHS because of Brexit racism and xenophobia".

It is true that nurses from the EU have left in larger numbers than they have joined, however, there are several reasons for this, including the new language testing initiative, and the economic situation in their own and other countries improving, to say nothing of currency fluctuations (source: Nursing Times and others).

That said, it is quite possible that a very small minority have left because they feel oppressed - although some of those will not have left the UK, but changed to different jobs.

I think it is true to say that far more people value the workers from EU countries than do not.
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