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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 02:44 - 19 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:
Look at this fellow, good sir.
https://www.foundshit.com/pictures/funny/mini-bike-jump.jpg

He'd succeed so splendidly if only the sore gravitarians controlled their egos and had more pride instead of moaning that it was always going to end in tears.
After all, he made the final decision to leave the ground and soar in the air; what a bizarre attitude they have not to stand united with him!


The thing is, he'd have made it successfully if the one obstacle was there and the crowd got behind him, rather than parking the other 4 or 5 extra obstacles which Remoaning snowflakes have put in the way, just to make him fail, so they can feel like they were right and everyone else was wrong and it couldn't be done.

That's exactly what people like you are doing, with the support of the EU, Nick Clegg and Tony Blair.


I haven't been able to quite follow all the political wranglings from this side of the pond but hadn't thought I was in the minority as a remainer AND someone who wanted to see the country push on regardless of the result, is that not the case?

How have those exercising a democratic right to their point of view added to the clusterfuck? (Serious question). In my limited experience of politicians most of them have two goals, re-election and greasing their wallets, and they couldn't give two fucks about anything else outside those two goals.
I assumed it was fairly obvious to anyone who keeps a loose eye on politics that the second Cameron went 'thanks, but no thanks, no supermajority, here's the token female to take the fall, cheerio' that this was going to be a rough ride.

Dumping an open ended referendum on a poorly informed electorate was not the cleverest of moves. From what I can gather there are so many camps within the Brexiteers that they can't decide whether it's just about immigration but with free trade and freedom of travel for Brits, just a free trade issue, or an anti-EU legislation movement, or any possible combo of the aforementioned to varying degrees.

This remainer doesn't like the restrictiveness of EU legislation, or the way MEP's were more interested in drawing their salaries than representing the interests of their constituents, or the unchecked flow of Eastern European crims into the land (allegedly, coming from the South Hams I didn't see too many furriners and even fewer poor people). I do however believe that trying to influence the EU juggernaut from the outside is going to be a mammouth task, heck we couldn't manage it from within, us the Colonial overlords.

Changing tack slightly. Trade with the US, fine but bear in mind that America counts it's friends as those it can make the most money off. Sure, a huge proportion of white America will coo over your accents and bore you shitless with stories of tenuous paternal family links from Scotland (but it could be Ireland, or maybe Wales???), whilst all you can think is that Himmler is the least Celtic surname you've come across but be under no illusions that they will only buy your shit if they believe they are getting it cheaper than it's worth.



EDIT: Steve Coogan has just been spamming my inbox, I think he wants a vote on something Brexit related. Laughing
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 11:59 - 19 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mentalboy wrote:

How have those exercising a democratic right to their point of view added to the clusterfuck? (Serious question).


A serious answer then!

We all know (apart from two, maximum three people who don't love learning history) that the concept is nothing new. In fact it's at least a century old.

About a hundred years ago a party emerged victorious from a bloody and chaotic civil war in a large European country. They were fans of a couple of 19th century German philosophers and were keen to apply their ideas to their newly possessed lands. They promised riches and empowerment, a brave new world in which the people unshackled from the drag of their unaccountable overlords would thrive in comfort and happiness. No more rules dictated from far away, no more evil globalists sucking out the fruits of the honest man's labour.

Sadly, it didn't go exactly as advertised. In the chaos typically accompanying a country hastily changing of course the prices were up, the supplies were down, the services suffered (trains wouldn't run reliably and so on).
Some people (we could call them project fear scaremongers) were maybe predicting that kicking out the perceived evil elites can have some adverse impact: the newly nationalised industries weren't very effective and the rich fleeing abroad would support other countries' economies with their consumption. The new officials had no administrative or diplomatic experience, contributing to the domestic chaos and international isolation.

Would the victorious revolutionaries correct the course in the face of undisputable problems? Not really. Instead, an ever-increasing propaganda campaign would blame the opposition for the problems. It was all ancien régime and foreign agents, the cosmopolites and residual capitalists who were responsible for throwing sand into the revolution's gears. Train cancelled? It was the foreigners. Inefficient office? It was the pre-revolution staff. Food expensive and scarce? The capitalists took it.
The riches were still promised, but to get them, the revolution needed to weed out its remaining (or remoaning) opponents. Everyone should unite behind the revolution and work for its ultimate success - no deviation, no individual snowflakes, everyone together in the direction of the bright future.

It could not be admitted that by and large the revolution was a failure; after all, the people have acted and the revolution won. If there was a shortcoming, it was always caused by insufficient revolutionary spirit and it should be corrected by more revolutionary effort. As the Glorious Leader would later put it: "not a step back!"

This is where the attitude comes from; it recurred several times in the 20th century and now we observe it again.
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 12:19 - 19 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
mentalboy wrote:
I haven't been able to quite follow all the political wranglings from this side of the pond but hadn't thought I was in the minority as a remainer


Many still dont. It's only when things go to the voting booth that the silent majority who don't get the media air time, finally get a say.

That's what happened. Nobody expected Remain to lose because the pro Remain media told you they were a sure fire win.


Except that wasn't what I meant, hence the use of the capitalised AND. I accept that remainers voted in the minority, anybody who chose not to vote has no right to whinge either way.
The minority I was talking about is those who engaged in the Democratic process, accept that they are in the minority and want to see a good outcome.
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Suntan Sid
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PostPosted: 11:59 - 21 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
They did, they lost. Now it's time to back the decision and start respecting the democratic right of the majority.

Democracy doesn't mean you fuck up the winning side because you didn't get your way. It doesn't work like that, no matter what school teachers have been telling the "everyone's a winner, nobody is a loser" generation of mentally and emotionally weak snowflakes.


And if the outcome of the current wrangling ends up producing a Corbyn government, you'll be backing the decision and respecting the democratic rights of the majority.

Of course you will, Rolling Eyes .

Remember, democracy doesn't mean you fuck up the winning side because you didn't get your way.
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 13:36 - 21 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:


Of course not, the minority will protest on Downing street to get a second chance and call it a "peoples vote". That's how snowflake democracy works apparently.


So besides the fact that another vote would be a waste of time and money and have come a little late in the proceedings you have nothing to worry about because presumably the Brexit majotiry will come out in force and win again.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 15:03 - 21 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm assuming you have evidence to back up your claims?

If so, you should hand it in to the police, because it seems there is a large amount of claiming, without any real evidence. And given each vote is registered to a person, it wouldn't be that difficult to weed it out.

And yet, they've only managed to convict one person of it. Rolling Eyes Mountains and molehill springs to mind, as per usual.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 15:15 - 21 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

The begin with the letter 'C' and are south of Sheffield?
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 15:22 - 21 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clegg and Salmond also lost their nailed on seats. Proves nothing.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 16:13 - 21 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Students make claims which may or may not be true. Shock horror. You do exactly the same Laughing
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Suntan Sid
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PostPosted: 21:34 - 22 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/canterbury/news/students-bragged-of-voting-twice-128843/

Quote:
Electoral officers in Canterbury admit they have no way of knowing whether city students voted twice in this year’s general election – and do not intend to find out.


That's OK then. Bound to stop it happening again. Rolling Eyes


Not to worry, karmic balance was restored at Keele!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-40260810

Mr Farrelly, the winning candidate, by a whole 30 votes:-

Quote:
described the issues on polling day as a "shambles".

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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 22:16 - 22 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Democracy as long as it's your type of democracy?
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 13:45 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

How much money do we think its going to cost to set up all these extra trade deals / border controls etc etc post brexit?

anyone got any educated guesses?
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 14:27 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:

About as much as it'll cost and as likely to ever happen as building a time machine.
Everything May is saying sounds like a proper Brexit, until you listen to the caveat, then you realise it's very little different to the status quo.

It wont stop Project Fear trotting out the nightmare scenarios every week though. We have plenty of capacity for freight clearance in Dover. The clearance industry there was decimated overnight in 1992 and is currently operating at 10% or what it was before we joined the EU. Most of the infrastructure is still there but unused. The Western docks has acres of unused car parks and buildings. Lord Warden House is where most of it was cleared, the building is almost empty now. I share an office with a firm who went from over 40 staff to 4 overnight and 3 of the 4 were directors.


Sorry - I should have been more specific.

Assuming a no-deal.... How much would it cost us as a country to start doing things for ourselves?

a billion? 2 billion? Or much less, a couple of hundred million?

Ive done my own analysis and we seem to be around 77mill per week better off.

caveat - I agree on most of what you said above regardless.
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 14:47 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

The positives aside....

What are the negative costs?
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 15:12 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
Assuming a no-deal.... How much would it cost us as a country to start doing things for ourselves?

a billion? 2 billion? Or much less, a couple of hundred million?

Ive done my own analysis and we seem to be around 77mill per week better off.

caveat - I agree on most of what you said above regardless.


A couple of observations. First, it'll cost a huge amount of money. However, it will be offset by the money we're not spending elsewhere, and benefits from our global trading ambitions. Next, I very much hope we get an exit agreement on leaving, and a UK-EU trade deal in a couple of years' time; this is most likely to be based on the Chequers' paper. Lastly, the benefit of leaving the EU is not purely financial, there's another aspect at least, which I suspect to be the one at the front of many people's minds when we voted to leave; "self determination".
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