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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 13:43 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:

It looks like Remain was an option in the poll, so what happened to the 48%? (I can't see that detail.)


Unhelpfully, this option was not in the ICM poll.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 13:44 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:

It just means people had different reasons for Leave, and if you break it down into multiple options you split the vote. That doesn't mean there wasn't/isn't a majority for Leave and that we should stay in.

It looks like Remain was an option in the poll, so what happened to the 48%? (I can't see that detail.)


I think actually Remain and Leave have a similar approach in some ways. Each option is just one thing at this point - if like me, you believe that leave means leave; out, free and clear of all institutions, regulations and law-making. When we have settled on one or the other, then folks will decide and work towards what kind of their preferred option they wish to see. Remain - well, do you want a super state? Do you just want easy trade? Do you want the EU to set our social policy? Will you have any say in these things if we stay? Does that matter to you? To pretend there are no questions over the Remain option is just ludicrous, because these questions are being debated by the EU themselves.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 13:52 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:

It just means people had different reasons for Leave, and if you break it down into multiple options you split the vote. That doesn't mean there wasn't/isn't a majority for Leave and that we should stay in.

It looks like Remain was an option in the poll, so what happened to the 48%? (I can't see that detail.)


I think actually Remain and Leave have a similar approach in some ways. Each option is just one thing at this point - if like me, you believe that leave means leave; out, free and clear of all institutions, regulations and law-making. When we have settled on one or the other, then folks will decide and work towards what kind of their preferred option they wish to see. Remain - well, do you want a super state? Do you just want easy trade? Do you want the EU to set our social policy? Will you have any say in these things if we stay? Does that matter to you? To pretend there are no questions over the Remain option is just ludicrous, because these questions are being debated by the EU themselves.


I agree but the way the politicians et all think is that everything other than full membership is a form of leave whereas you, I and a lot of Breiteers think anything short of full exit is a form of remain.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 13:59 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:


I agree but the way the politicians et all think is that everything other than full membership is a form of leave whereas you, I and a lot of Breiteers think anything short of full exit is a form of remain.


That's because our politicians are vastly on the Remain side, and have been from the off.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 14:00 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:

I think actually Remain and Leave have a similar approach in some ways. Each option is just one thing at this point - if like me, you believe that leave means leave; out, free and clear of all institutions, regulations and law-making. When we have settled on one or the other, then folks will decide and work towards what kind of their preferred option they wish to see. Remain - well, do you want a super state? Do you just want easy trade? Do you want the EU to set our social policy? Will you have any say in these things if we stay? Does that matter to you? To pretend there are no questions over the Remain option is just ludicrous, because these questions are being debated by the EU themselves.


Sir, there is no symmetry in this case, because Remain is a status quo, with revolutionary changes being very hypothetical, with more than even chance of minor, evolutionary steps (based on evidence over decades of experience so far).

To use an analogy, we live in a flat and decide whether to move house. If we stay, we can of course redecorate and be participate in all kinds of hypothetical decisions of the residents' association of which we are a member. But if we move, we can do everything from choosing a different flat in the same building to sitting in a tent in a brownfield outside of town, believing that one day we will build a very beautiful palace.

What happened to the Leave vote is one fringe group claiming that the tent + promised palace option was what everyone who voted to move wanted, elsewhere we will be still tied to the old house.
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Sload
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PostPosted: 14:51 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
Sir, there is no symmetry in this case, because Remain is a status quo, with revolutionary changes being very hypothetical, with more than even chance of minor, evolutionary steps

I cannot believe you had to state that.
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 15:00 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:


Sir, there is no symmetry in this case, because Remain is a status quo, with revolutionary changes being very hypothetical, with more than even chance of minor, evolutionary steps (based on evidence over decades of experience so far).
.

Tut Tut
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 15:40 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sload wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:
Sir, there is no symmetry in this case, because Remain is a status quo, with revolutionary changes being very hypothetical, with more than even chance of minor, evolutionary steps

I cannot believe you had to state that.


I cannot believe that you two believe that.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 16:39 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:


Sir, there is no symmetry in this case, because Remain is a status quo,


Here lies a common myth. Do you expect the EU and it's control over it's member states to remain the same, without forced entry to it's currency, an EU army, central taxation


Would you care to dispel that myth using data? Can you name the examples of member states being forced to adopt the shared currency, army, and taxation since, say, the referendum?

I am asking for that because I am sure that you would never use scaremongering similar to "Turkey is joining the EU" which, when the facts are examined, turns out to be unlikely in the next couple of thousand years.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 16:58 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

In other news May has addressed Parliament... nothing has changed in her mind Neutral She still seems to thinking she can renegotiate, get her deal through, by the end of March.

Last edited by M.C on 17:05 - 21 Jan 2019; edited 2 times in total
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 17:02 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:

Here lies a common myth. Do you expect the EU and it's control over it's member states to remain the same, without forced entry to it's currency, an EU army, central taxation


Quote:
No, as usual, you're right. All of those things are just in my imagination and not regularly in the news. Rolling Eyes


While you offer a wondrously plausible explanation, it is just worth noting that a thing being in the news doesn't mean that it's actually happening. News is full of ends of existence, vile vaccines, almighty aliens, and EU excesses, all with very little evidence of actually being real.

Quote:

Here, have some fictional non truth...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_convergence_criteria


These are the criteria a country should meet to adopt euro as its currency. Your original point was that EU forces member states to adopt it; where is the evidence of that?
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Sload
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PostPosted: 17:30 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

panrider_uk wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:


Sir, there is no symmetry in this case, because Remain is a status quo, with revolutionary changes being very hypothetical, with more than even chance of minor, evolutionary steps (based on evidence over decades of experience so far).
.

Tut Tut

There is some truth to this in effect that even if we were to remain at this point, there is verifiable damage done already (project fear no doubt - how bout you f**k off with your tin foil hattery and deal in reality) as well as we have pissed off near everyone and lost favour and confidence beyond the EU so it will not be true status quo.

Here is one nugget which makes me smile, some argue we crash out on a no deal and stiff the EU of our legal and agreed obligations and that.... we will be able to quickly establish economic deals to our benefit with the EU and other countries..... despite the fact that we will have shown we are absolute con artists and cannot be trusted to uphold any sort of agreement or deal. This is actual reta***tion levels of st00pid and yet I have seen worse.

Another nugget is that we currently have a border enforced from both sides and quite effectively too despite what the BS some might feed into their brains. Even so, if you think it is too permeable at this point just wait......

Still I have a theory. I think some small segment of the brexiteer camp actually wants to economically ruin the country. It is in their mind in our interest to make everyone poorer as if we reduce the living conditions of everyone, nobody will want to come over anyway.... Laughing
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Sload
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PostPosted: 17:42 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Closet goosestepping flatearther wrote:
As a massive NET contributor, surely we've already funded infrastructure and subsidies way over our own takings and future pensions obligations?
Are the EU refunding us our share of all the infrastructure we've paid for in Brussels and beyond?

What obligations do we have as someone who always paid in way more than we ever took out?

It still thinks I take anything it says with any seriousness.... Laughing

Neg away, or just block, whatever.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 18:03 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:

Quote:
All EU members which have joined the bloc since the signing of the Maastricht treaty in 1992 are legally obliged to adopt the euro



Treaty? So they agreed to adopt it, right? How's that "forced"?
Also, 7 countries that joined after 1992 still haven't adopted euro. This "forcing" doesn't look very forceful, does it?

mpd72 CPT wrote:

As for taxation, they're already telling us what we can and can't do, such as setting minimum VAT rates. How long before they set everything Europe wide?

How long? Maybe a few thousand years, once Turkey joins?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 19:04 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

This thing about what the Lisbon treaty says is fundamentally wrong , it's been debunked numerous times and if you're gonna make a argument for leave, actually use official documents, rather than horseshit concocted by Leave means Leave and the other knuckle dragging hard brexit groups
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 19:35 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
This thing about what the Lisbon treaty says is fundamentally wrong , it's been debunked numerous times and if you're gonna make a argument for leave, actually use official documents, rather than horseshit concocted by Leave means Leave and the other knuckle dragging hard brexit groups


Actually, we don't have to make an argument for leave. In case you didn't notice a majority have already voted for it.

We should leave, end of.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 20:11 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
Remain is a status quo, with revolutionary changes being very hypothetical, with more than even chance of minor, evolutionary steps (based on evidence over decades of experience so far).

Deliberate, incremental change is what brought us to Brexit.

The EU is gradually moving away from unanimity to qualified majority voting (QMV)*, so nations (sorry, "states") could be outvoted and obliged to accept policies they don't like. Westminster uses QMV of course, but there's a difference between applying a single set of rules to a nation compared to a whole continent of diverse economies and cultures. I don't think it can work, and it's already created a resistance movement usually labelled nationalist, populist, right-wing, which threatens peace. The EU did this.

*Junker's last "state of the union' speech went further and called for QMV in taxation and foreign affairs. He also urged increased cooperation in defence.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 21:03 - 21 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, Mogg's beginning to come around to "the deal", which is a help.

Perhaps there will be some sort of change from the EU. We'll have to wait and see what transpires in the next few days or weeks.

Mrs May's said again that a "no-deal" must remain a possibility; that Article 50 won't be extended; the referendum result must be respected, we will leave; the Good Friday Agreement will not be reopened; workers' rights won't be eroded; EU people can stay, without paying application fees; and that there won't be a hard UK/Ireland border. So that's all good, too.
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