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Val
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PostPosted: 20:30 - 02 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
When we do go to war with the Castillians, I trust that we'll draft our non-citizen residents to the front line as bullet-sponges. Praying


Guys giving the fact that the war with Spain is almost inevitable, how exactly I can become an oficial government minister?

Surely that can't be so hard.

First the Downing 10 declined that mentioning 50 times security in the Article 50 notice has anything to do with blackmailing the EU to get a trade deal against security co-operation.

Now the same government one day later (Fallon) is saying actually that they want to have a trade deal against security co-operation.

Bear with me here because security co-operation will affect mostly the UK security anyway.

These people must be the stupidiest blackmailers ever, because this threat sounds to me like: give is a trade deal or the UK will get it.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brexit-trade-deal-security-terrorism-eu-michael-fallon-must-be-linked-warnings-a7662766.html

Based on all of the above I would like to fill some forms and become an oficial government minister. I mean the entry criteria are obviously not very high Laughing
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 09:27 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
Does the war with Spain has finished yet?

Just checking... Laughing

I have to admit May negotiation tactic so far is very smooth.

3 days after the oficial UK notice May has managed to threaten the EU with stopping all security co-operation (which sounds to me like give us a deal or we will shoot ouself in the head), and also threatens Spain with war. Which is just an empty threat. However Spain replied that does not mind Scotland to join the EU. Which is a real thing.

Well done...not.


Soo much for the EU being the bringer of peace eh?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 09:32 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:


Jesus H Christ!

Our major exports and major imports are different markets Trigger and subject to different deals!

It's not rocket science. Think before posting.



What does that even mean?

Tell me the difference between the customs union and the single market, before trying to act asif you know anything but the usual tory boy twaddlle

in the grand scheme of things, we export very little, we create very little, yet you somehow want to restart industries, no one wants to do, by slapping tarrifs on all imports, and this is somehow a FREE TRADE DEAL, I'm sure the Indians will bend over backwards for tarrif free exports to their market while we keep WTO tarrifs on their goods, i'm sure they will lap it up Laughing
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 10:53 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a summary of a report by Civitas:

Summary

Our analysis shows that if the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal UK exporters could face the potential impact of £5.2 billion in tariffs on goods being sold to the EU. However, EU exporters will also face £12.9 billion in tariffs on goods coming to the UK.

Exporters to the UK in 22 of the 27 remaining EU member states face higher tariffs costs when selling their goods than UK exporters face when selling goods to those countries.

German exporters would have to deal with the impact of £3.4 billion of tariffs on goods they export to the UK. UK exporters in return would face £0.9 billion of tariffs on goods going to Germany.

French exporters could face £1.4 billion in tariffs on their products compared to UK exporters facing £0.7 billion. A similar pattern exists for all the UK’s major EU trading partners.

The biggest impact will be on exports of goods relating to vehicles, with tariffs in the region of £1.3 billion being applied to UK car-related exports going to the EU. This compares to £3.9 billion for the EU, including £1.8 billion in tariffs being applied to German car-related exports.[/url]
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Baggyman
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PostPosted: 11:05 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sload wrote:


Wtf is a horizontal collective? Is that anarchist speak for an orgy?
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Baggyman
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PostPosted: 11:11 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:


Guys giving the fact that the war with Spain is almost inevitable, how exactly I can become an oficial government minister?

Surely that can't be so hard.

First the Downing 10 declined that mentioning 50 times security in the Article 50 notice has anything to do with blackmailing the EU to get a trade deal against security co-operation.

Now the same government one day later (Fallon) is saying actually that they want to have a trade deal against security co-operation.

Bear with me here because security co-operation will affect mostly the UK security anyway.

These people must be the stupidiest blackmailers ever, because this threat sounds to me like: give is a trade deal or the UK will get it.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brexit-trade-deal-security-terrorism-eu-michael-fallon-must-be-linked-warnings-a7662766.html

Based on all of the above I would like to fill some forms and become an oficial government minister. I mean the entry criteria are obviously not very high Laughing


Spain might actually welcome a war - probably the only option they have for addressing their massive youth unemployment problem

Wrong also about UK security being dependent on that bunch. They are not talking about the EU armed forces that they are quietly trying to establish (military vehicles with EU insignia on maneuvers on Salisbury Plain last year).
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:04 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

panrider_uk wrote:
This is a summary of a report by Civitas:

Summary

Our analysis shows that if the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal UK exporters could face the potential impact of £5.2 billion in tariffs on goods being sold to the EU. However, EU exporters will also face £12.9 billion in tariffs on goods coming to the UK.

Exporters to the UK in 22 of the 27 remaining EU member states face higher tariffs costs when selling their goods than UK exporters face when selling goods to those countries.

German exporters would have to deal with the impact of £3.4 billion of tariffs on goods they export to the UK. UK exporters in return would face £0.9 billion of tariffs on goods going to Germany.

French exporters could face £1.4 billion in tariffs on their products compared to UK exporters facing £0.7 billion. A similar pattern exists for all the UK’s major EU trading partners.

The biggest impact will be on exports of goods relating to vehicles, with tariffs in the region of £1.3 billion being applied to UK car-related exports going to the EU. This compares to £3.9 billion for the EU, including £1.8 billion in tariffs being applied to German car-related exports.[/url]


https://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/sorry-civitas-its-not-ok-to-walk-away.html

If one were so inclined I could spend some considerable hours dismantling the Civitas report from Michael Burrage. There isn't much point though because when you are dealing with people who believe we can walk away from the EU without agreement you are entering a dialogue of the deaf.

There is much that is factually wrong in the report as already outlined, but then people are entitled to be wrong about technical processes and procedures. God knows I have been on more than one occasion. My tolerance ends though when it crosses the line into wilful distortion. Burrage makes a number of falsely framed assertions with regard to The Leave Alliance's Brexit plan.
Flexcit looked to secure a smooth, reasonably quick and economically neutral Brexit, and thought that this might best be done by the UK re-joining EFTA and thereby retaining membership of the EEA and the Single Market. For some unexplained reason, it assumed that the referendum could only be won on the grounds that the UK would remain a member of the Single Market, and therefore decided that the UK should accept free movement, subjection to EU rules and continued UK contributions to the EU budget. Since the referendum was not won on these grounds, and virtually all leaders of the Leave campaign made perfectly clear they wanted and expected the UK to leave the Single Market, its argument has naturally lost momentum.
Far from being "for some unexplained reason", we made it very clear early on that we could not win the referendum without winning the economic argument and we could not do that without a viable plan. That is the lesson we observed from the Scottish referendum. As it happens, that assumption was wrong - but only by a very slender margin.

Burrage asserts that we said we could only win by making a case for staying in the single market. This is a lie. What we said, with some validity, was that swing voters would not make the leap without some reassurances. That much became obvious fairly early on in the referendum campaign.

We anticipated the usual remainer lie that three million jobs would be lost should we leave the EU. Our argument was that these jobs depended on trade, not political union. It was therefore necessary to show that we could end political union while maintaining favourable trading conditions.

In the end, though we won the referendum, largely by an accident of events, the absence of a plan cost us considerably. I know of a number of people who voted to remain because it would have emboldened the hard right and we would see them pushing us over the cliff. Though we were able to say that there was at least a plan, it was pointed out that it was only a plan, not the plan. Vote Leave failed to reassure voters and consequently we lost votes. I take the view that we could and should have won by a considerably larger margin.

There was, though, a second strategic reason for having a plan. We were thinking in terms of how we could carry over the referendum win into influencing government afterwards. Ultimately the absence of a plan is why the Brexiteers were swept from the board in the immediate aftermath. The Brexiteers, save for David Davies, are all in token jobs and limited in the damage they can do.

The absence of a plan and the insistence on the most economically disruptive exit possible is why leavers will struggle to influence the end game. Once the penny drops that the WTO option is a non starter, the Brexiteers will find their cupboard is bare. As soon as Article 50 is done and dusted, they are history.

One other factor we considered was that lying was not necessary. The egregiously stupid £350m claim was not believed by anyone serious and no opinion former could lend it credibility. Similarly the leaver arguments in regard to regulation were equally slender. We took the view that we would not be taken seriously if we presented the kind of panglossian nonsense classic eurosceptics have a penchant for.

This turned out to be a correct assumption. Vote Leave likes to take credit for winning the referendum but in fact the vote was won on Facebook. The debate online was of far greater depth and breadth than the one presented in the legacy media. For several months, social media was alight with far reaching debate. In that, Vote Leave was next to useless, providing seasoned campaigners with no useful material and in fact, Vote Leave was a liability on more than one occasion.

With no help from any official sources, The Leave Alliance was able to bring the Norway Option into the public sphere which allowed us to make the distinction between economic integration and political union. That was probably our most useful contribution to the debate.

As to the single market, we took the view that how we leave was as important as question of why. It's all very well having a grand vision of a buccaneering free trade global Britain but that says nothing of how you get there.

We took the view that we most definitely will need a comprehensive trade relationship with the EU. Having been a member for four decades our central premise was that leaving is a process, not an event. We would need a sophisticated mechanism to do it because a basic free trade agreement does not even begin to cover the depth and complexity of the issues. In this, you can either spend years stuck in the EU negotiating one from scratch or you can take one off the shelf with a view to getting out as fast as possible without the inherent risk of failure.

Of itself we are not sold on the EEA per se, only that it is the only mechanism available to us that adequately cushions the blow of leaving. And this is really the difference of opinion between us Flexciteers and the Tory right.

The hard Brexit cult believes that there is no need to cushion the blow because there is in fact no blow to cushion. We are only a skip and a jump away from a trade miracle through unilateral liberalisation - and there are no adverse consequences. Consequently it has been impossible to sell them on the merits of even having an interim solution. It has been an uphill battle just to get David Davies to hint at the possibility.

And that is why the Civitas report is pure garbage. As much as the author wilfully misrepresents our position, the study is an evaluation on the merits of the single market as a destination. We only ever viewed it as a temporary solution and then in the post-Brexit stage we could evolve the EEA agreement into something more suitable.

Whether the single market is good or bad is neither here nor there. The fact is that we are in it and it will take some considerable effort to disentangle ourselves from it. Further to this, there are elements we would wish to keep, not least frictionless customs and the enhanced rights we enjoy for our aviation industry. There is nothing in the WTO option that covers these such EU policy areas.

In this the zombie Brexiteers have fixated mainly on tariffs and trade in goods neglecting to consider that the EU is far more than a trade framework. It is an extensive government with a number of systems we depend on having shut down much of our domestic administrative capability. A point entirely lost on the likes of Burrage.

In essence, the Civitas report is an attack piece aimed directly at Flexcit. Were it an honestly framed report it would not take such a sneering tone. Rather than advocating the single market "for some unexplained reason" we went to considerable lengths to explain the thinking - and in response all we have seen from the likes of Civitas is deflection and denial.

That tells us that we are dealing with a belief system and the very existence of this report indicates that they find our arguments threatening. They should. When you look at the two approaches side by side there is nothing at all to be said for the WTO option.

In any case, if reports are correct, Article 50 will soon be upon us. The waiting will be over and the complexities of Brexit will soon become apparent to the Brexit zombies. I do not expect them to acknowledge the issues even then. We will see more of the same insistence that walking away is viable. To everyone else though the penny will start to drop that a free trade agreement doesn't come close and we will need a more sophisticated departure programme. When the realities are known, the merits of Flexcit will present themselves.

Ultimately Flexcit was an exercise in facing up to uncomfortable truths and finding ways to manage them. It was our attempt to take an unvarnished look at Brexit and examine the difficulties as well as the opportunities. That is why it is still the subject of debate. Ultimately the resistance to Flexcit is because it says things that Brexiteers do not want to hear; that Brexit is complex, we won't get it all our own way and regulation is here to stay. This goes against three decades of eurosceptic thinking on which they have built their identities. They won't give up the ghost without a fight.

What we see from Burrage is a number of tortured contortions to present a rose tinted Brexit model pretending that forty years of economic, social and political integration is undone at the stroke of a pen. Anyone with a shred of integrity can see right through it. But then when it comes to Tory Brexiteers integrity is in short supply. It comes as no surprise that such dishonesty carries weight among their creed.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 13:23 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Did Adam (in our opinion mocking Ants) Aarons write that? I couldn't even fathom if he's fur it or agin it.
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 13:24 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laughing Laughing Laughing

Liberal media are now genuinely trying to claim it was all about getting Great British blue passports back.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/03/britons-blue-passports-brexit-david-cameron-brussels#comment-96010605
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Nexus Icon
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PostPosted: 13:27 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to say, that *name forgotten* politician who blathered on about bringing back pounds and ounces is exactly the type of bloke who shits all over the potential upsides to leaving the EU.

Rather like the blue passport nonsense, it gives the left-wing media plenty of opportunity to tar all Leave voters with the same brush.

Mind you, pounds and ounces are exactly the sort of bollocks my parents' generation would actually care about.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:32 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
Did Adam (in our opinion mocking Ants) Aarons write that? I couldn't even fathom if he's fur it or agin it.


For leaving, but for democratic reasons
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:33 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Percy wrote:
Laughing Laughing Laughing

Liberal media are now genuinely trying to claim it was all about getting Great British blue passports back.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/03/britons-blue-passports-brexit-david-cameron-brussels#comment-96010605


https://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/blue-passports-and-all-that.html

Although, £500 million to change the colour of a passport, wtf
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 13:57 - 03 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
Rogerborg wrote:
Did Adam (in our opinion mocking Ants) Aarons write that? I couldn't even fathom if he's fur it or agin it.

For leaving, but for democratic reasons

I'll take your word for it, I guess.


Rob Fzs wrote:
Although, £500 million to change the colour of a passport, wtf

Worth every penny to trigger the inevitable rage-rants about boycotting them, burning them, demanding we retain a pink alternative, you homoracists.


Percy's Grauniad piece wrote:
The passport colour isn’t important to me, but it clearly has been to a lot of people, and telling them their concerns are trivial isn’t a strategy that wins hearts or minds.

Finally, a dim glimmer of insight.

I'm sure it will be snuffed out in favour of the tried and tested persuasion technique of calling Brexiteers stupid old stupid heads who ought to be ashamed of being such stupid stupids. In a manner somewhat akin to French generals exhorting their troops to "Spread out! Spread out!" long after the Panzers had hammered through and taken Paris.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 08:52 - 04 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:

Talking of twaddle...

We export almost £50bn a month and import about £51bn.
We have a trade surplus with the rest of the world.

Don't let facts get in the way of a good Remoan though eh?


So what are people going to do, when you slap tarrifs on Indian services and clothing and everything goes dearer? alot of these things we don't make here

You have one fucked up version of free trade, i'm fairly sure you don't even want brexit, you want to make such a mess of it, we end up remaining.

But hey, 10 billion of tarrifs that goes in to the bottomless pit of government spending will surely make everyone better off Thumbs Up
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:26 - 04 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:


I really can't see why your struggling to understand our trade balance and the EU. I can't put it in simpler terms.

We export more to the rest of the world than the EU, we import more from the EU than the rest of the world.
We have no free trade deals with any of the larger rest of the world economies, due to EU = doesn't really want them. This means we are less competitive to our major export markets and can't negotiate free trade deals all the time were bound to the EU.
We have free trade deals with the EU, so can't charge tariffs on the majority of our imports, but only get tariff free exports to our minority exports = Trade deficit.

TLDR, You really want free trade deals with the markets you have a trade surplus with , not a growing trade deficit with (EU). We currently have it the wrong way around thanks to EU membership and deals designed to suit Germany, not us.
Once out, we can finally negotiate deals with the markets we have a healthy trade surplus with, making our majority exports even more competitive.
You make money as a country by selling, not buying, so want the trade deals on your sales, rather than purchases. Most of our sales go outside of the EU.


You're not making any sense at all

Why are you going on about free trade deals, and then going on about adding tarrifs? have you been paying no attention what so ever to the hard brexit side of the tory party, they want unilateral free trade

This trade surplus bollocks is the same route what Trump's going down, who is going to gain the most from tarrifs? the government, who s going to gain the least? the end buyer , the tarrif won't get removed for them, it will be swallowed up in something like the Nhs.

Your theory makes no sense at all, you either remove all tarrifs altogether, or you wont get a deal, hence why the Eu doesn't get the deals done.

We sell in to these markets now, the only thing thats holding us back is the regulatory and customs divergence.

Which country is going to accept a trade deal where as you get to sell tarrif free in to their market and we charge tarrifs on theirs? that is what the EU does in the Customs union
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:29 - 04 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Uh no:

Top 15 UK exporting nations by value:

United States: US$60.4 billion (14.8% of total UK exports)
Germany: $43.6 billion (10.7%)
France: $25.9 billion (6.3%)
Netherlands: $25.6 billion (6.3%)
Ireland: $22.9 billion (5.6%)
Switzerland: $18.9 billion (4.6%)
China: $18 billion (4.4%)
Belgium: $15.8 billion (3.9%)
Italy: $13.1 billion (3.2%)
Spain: $12.7 billion (3.1%)
United Arab Emirates: $9 billion (2.2%)
Hong Kong: $8.8 billion (2.2%)
Japan: $6.4 billion (1.6%)
Canada: $6.2 billion (1.5%)
Sweden: $6.1 billion (1.5%)

EU nations are blue (Switzerland isn't included).

UK exports to non EU nations 108.8bn
UK exports to EU nations 165.7


Top 10 Trade deficits by value


Germany: -US$42.7 billion
China: -$40.9 billion
Netherlands: -$20.8 billion
Belgium: -$15.8 billion
Norway: -$13.2 billion
Italy: -$10.2 billion
Switzerland: -$9.7 billion
Spain: -$9 billion
Canada: -$7.4 billion
France: -$7.3 billion


EU = blue 105.8
Non EU = 71.2

Top ten UK trade surpluses:


United Arab Emirates: US$7.4 billion (country-specific trade surplus in 2016)
Ireland: $5.3 billion
Saudi Arabia: $4.2 billion
Singapore: $3.8 billion
United States: $1.3 billion
Hong Kong: $1.1 billion
Macedonia: $832.3 million
Egypt: $780.3 million
Qatar: $688.9 million
Oman: $539.3 million
20.639 bn total.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:37 - 04 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:

Which country is going to accept a trade deal where as you get to sell tariff free in to their market and we charge tariffs on theirs?



Oh you're wrong, many nations have accepted such treaties.

Not in recent history though. Japan, Korea, China, Mongolia and Russia signed unequal treaties. This had more to do with 100,000s of foreign troops occupying their soil.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:37 - 04 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Uh no:

Top 15 UK exporting nations by value:

United States: US$60.4 billion (14.8% of total UK exports)
Germany: $43.6 billion (10.7%)
France: $25.9 billion (6.3%)
Netherlands: $25.6 billion (6.3%)
Ireland: $22.9 billion (5.6%)
Switzerland: $18.9 billion (4.6%)
China: $18 billion (4.4%)
Belgium: $15.8 billion (3.9%)
Italy: $13.1 billion (3.2%)
Spain: $12.7 billion (3.1%)
United Arab Emirates: $9 billion (2.2%)
Hong Kong: $8.8 billion (2.2%)
Japan: $6.4 billion (1.6%)
Canada: $6.2 billion (1.5%)
Sweden: $6.1 billion (1.5%)

EU nations are blue (Switzerland isn't included).

UK exports to non EU nations 108.8bn
UK exports to EU nations 165.7


Top 10 Trade deficits by value


Germany: -US$42.7 billion
China: -$40.9 billion
Netherlands: -$20.8 billion
Belgium: -$15.8 billion
Norway: -$13.2 billion
Italy: -$10.2 billion
Switzerland: -$9.7 billion
Spain: -$9 billion
Canada: -$7.4 billion
France: -$7.3 billion


EU = blue 105.8
Non EU = 71.2

Top ten UK trade surpluses:


United Arab Emirates: US$7.4 billion (country-specific trade surplus in 2016)
Ireland: $5.3 billion
Saudi Arabia: $4.2 billion
Singapore: $3.8 billion
United States: $1.3 billion
Hong Kong: $1.1 billion
Macedonia: $832.3 million
Egypt: $780.3 million
Qatar: $688.9 million
Oman: $539.3 million
20.639 bn total.


Bloody facts, getting in the way of some fantasy of making a killing out of tarrifs
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