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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 15:35 - 12 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
retire, move to or even visit Europe in extreme moron circumstances.


Extreme circumstances? I see people chucking this nonsense around all the time. They 100% believe their lives (or the lives of their imaginary Euro-hopping friends) have been ruined by Brexit because of this weird idea that the continent is now impossibly shut off to them.

The borderless free-roaming spiel of pro-EU people... it's like a donkey chasing a carrot on the stick.

"Stay in the EU... you'll be able to go there on holiday, or to live, to work or retire! ... but most of you never will anyway."

I bet 95% of remainers can't even say more than 'give me a beer please' in Spanish, French or German... yet they seem to think a whole continent of opportunity has been shut off by putting the open borders into question.
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Sload
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PostPosted: 22:32 - 12 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baggyman wrote:
Its normal nowadays for big companies to do proper identity checks when they hire someone - known in the trade as BC but used to be called BPSS once upon a time. If they are only doing it now, it would seem strange but they should really give some sort of explanation


The thing is, I assumed this was par for the course? Apart from my youngers agency years, I have always had to verify my identity fully. Is this not the case in some companies?
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Mawsley
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PostPosted: 16:42 - 13 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

"That’s not our Jolly Fisherman"

The New European upsets people who are easily upset.

Quote:
A staff member at the Lincolnshire Co-op Food Store said: “To be honest we rarely sell any and usually send them all back.” 


https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/A322/production/_95626714_capture.jpg
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 20:59 - 13 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Loving the Gothic font. Look, we're not saying that Leavers are Nazis, but...
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Baggyman
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PostPosted: 23:20 - 13 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

dodsi wrote:
wrote:
It's pretty obvious the Remainers actually believe we're going to be rounding up foreigners into cattle trucks and shipping them back to The Continent on pain of death. That's what the idiots think Brexit means. Still, they're dutifully preparing the passenger list.

Probably only "following orders" - heard that before somewhere.



Godwins law wins again.


He won already cos someone mentioned cattle trucks.

I plead Ironicalist - is ma religion innit.

Laughing
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doggone
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PostPosted: 17:10 - 20 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

More Brexit race Hate
https://www.independent.ie/videos/irish-news/video-fk-off-back-to-india-irish-womans-racist-abuse-caught-on-camera-on-limerick-train-35631991.html

...oh wait... Laughing
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gorillaonabik...
Nearly there...



Joined: 31 Jul 2011
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PostPosted: 10:19 - 21 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Percy wrote:
mpd72 wrote:
retire, move to or even visit Europe in extreme moron circumstances.


Extreme circumstances? I see people chucking this nonsense around all the time. They 100% believe their lives (or the lives of their imaginary Euro-hopping friends) have been ruined by Brexit because of this weird idea that the continent is now impossibly shut off to them.

The borderless free-roaming spiel of pro-EU people... it's like a donkey chasing a carrot on the stick.

"Stay in the EU... you'll be able to go there on holiday, or to live, to work or retire! ... but most of you never will anyway."

I bet 95% of remainers can't even say more than 'give me a beer please' in Spanish, French or German... yet they seem to think a whole continent of opportunity has been shut off by putting the open borders into question.


As a Remainer who has lived in these countries, I couldn't care less about free movement. To me, it's about business and hitting the money in my pocket.

Take a couple of my friends who are exporters. Slapping tariff barriers on and stopping goods going across the EU costs them money. Margins are tight, they become uncompetitive and can't sell. Simple.

Selling outside the EU is difficult logistically. I used to try to sell stuff to the US but West Coast time differences meant I didn't have a life and if you can't see your wife / friends / cat because you're always working until midnight or beyond, that becomes hard. Didn't help that my office was over a pub and I remember seeing all the people enjoying themselves (but also coughing at the smoke being wafter upwards). The only way to really export to countries outside the EU is to employ people out there which is expensive and difficult to manage remotely. And incidentally, will not help British jobs.

And transporting stuff further costs tons more money and when stuff goes wrong, it is much harder and more expensive to rectify a mistake 8,000 miles away than 800. Incidentally, all carriage is conventionally paid in USD irrespective of country of origin / destination so with a lower currency, my friends' export costs have gone up 20% as well as the cost of importing any kit they need ranging from a computer to, well, everything.

Then there's the multitude of export rules my friends have to deal with rather than just the EU. It's all just a pain in the pisser and costs them and every other small / medium exporter I know, money.

Exiting the common market simply damages my business and the businesses of my friends. Leaving the EU but staying in the Common market is absolutely fine by me but the EU gives little old me the power to do business freely. That's a freedom that puts money in my pocket and I like that.
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Baggyman
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PostPosted: 10:50 - 21 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:


As a Remainer who has lived in these countries, I couldn't care less about free movement. To me, it's about business and hitting the money in my pocket.

Take a couple of my friends who are exporters. Slapping tariff barriers on and stopping goods going across the EU costs them money. Margins are tight, they become uncompetitive and can't sell. Simple.

Selling outside the EU is difficult logistically. I used to try to sell stuff to the US but West Coast time differences meant I didn't have a life and if you can't see your wife / friends / cat because you're always working until midnight or beyond, that becomes hard. Didn't help that my office was over a pub and I remember seeing all the people enjoying themselves (but also coughing at the smoke being wafter upwards). The only way to really export to countries outside the EU is to employ people out there which is expensive and difficult to manage remotely. And incidentally, will not help British jobs.

And transporting stuff further costs tons more money and when stuff goes wrong, it is much harder and more expensive to rectify a mistake 8,000 miles away than 800. Incidentally, all carriage is conventionally paid in USD irrespective of country of origin / destination so with a lower currency, my friends' export costs have gone up 20% as well as the cost of importing any kit they need ranging from a computer to, well, everything.

Then there's the multitude of export rules my friends have to deal with rather than just the EU. It's all just a pain in the pisser and costs them and every other small / medium exporter I know, money.

Exiting the common market simply damages my business and the businesses of my friends. Leaving the EU but staying in the Common market is absolutely fine by me but the EU gives little old me the power to do business freely. That's a freedom that puts money in my pocket and I like that.




Two way street - if all the europrenuers that sell to the UK are faced with the same barriers, you/your friends could sell more stuff in the UK so that would be better.

It totally depends on the individual business and market sector and because it will hit Europe as well, there is a mutual incentive to not do something stupid anyway.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 11:27 - 21 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
Take a couple of my friends who are exporters.

What do they export, out of interest?


gorillaonabike wrote:
with a lower currency, my friends' export costs have gone up 20%

The cost of their goods has gone down 20%. Does shipping cost more than their products?


gorillaonabike wrote:
as well as the cost of importing any kit they need ranging from a computer to, well, everything.

If the value of what they import exceeds what they export, then they're not really net exporters are they?


allah forbid they consider UK sources for their needs. Yes, I know, there aren't any at the moment, but that situation may change itself (and can only change) if Sterling stays low and we're not trying to compete on a level playing field with screw-the-environment sweatshop freely dumping disposable goods on us.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 14:17 - 21 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:

What do they export, out of interest?

....

The cost of their goods has gone down 20%. Does shipping cost more than their products?


One is clothing. He manufactures and sells womens clothes with a specific USP and sells through most major UK retailers and is expanding into the EU. The second is more interesting - he's a Brexiter with a seriously big, speciality foods business (margin sensitive) and owns a brand. The currency is hitting his margins.

He's interesting because he wants better trade agreements in countries outside the EU. For example, a chunk of his market is the Gulf states. However, his UK commercial structure means the lower currency has taken out his margins.

Does shipping cost more than their products? Well, carriage, tooling, travel, manufacturing (i.e. buying machines from overseas), buying in packaging and marketing in the UK and from the UK to other countries to attempt to sell products all costs 20% more. This requires travel so everything from a hotel room to a flight to food is now more expensive hence his margins are hurting.

He's a multi-millionaire so I'm not crying about it.

To put it into context, he's a Brexiter and doesn't believe it is good for business but he wants more sovereignty. Mr EU clothing manufacturer will just have to scale back and put prices up if we hard Brexit.

I'm just setting up another business which will be unaffected by Brexit and could benefit from the lower £. My target market is the UK and US so we'll see. However, 80%+ of small businesses fail in their first year so I'm not going to hold my breath.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 14:25 - 21 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baggyman wrote:
Two way street - if all the europrenuers that sell to the UK are faced with the same barriers, you/your friends could sell more stuff in the UK so that would be better.

It totally depends on the individual business and market sector and because it will hit Europe as well, there is a mutual incentive to not do something stupid anyway.


May I challenge this? Let's imagine big tariffs, say 50%, were slapped on all imports and cars could be an example.

If I wanted to set up a company in the UK manufacturing cars, I'd need to import all the parts so all the parts would cost 50% more. With a lower £, the carriage would cost more. In addition, buying machines to manufacture the cars would cost more as they would need to be imported. In the UK, we will not have more money so consumers will simply be unable to buy the cars which cost more. Therefore, slapping on tariffs makes it uneconomical not only to buy cars but to manufacture them as well because they cost more to build in a market where we will not have the money to buy them.

Ditto for clothes, food, petrol etc... The higher the tariffs, the more money it costs for us to manufacture the products but the higher prices mean consumers cannot afford the products.

If we print more money and distribute it to our population, the value of our currency drops further so the price of imports increases further and there is a self-fulfilling cycle.

Examples are the Great Depression in the US, The Empire Act in the UK (worth reading all the books around the death of British manufacturing), China etc...

What are your thoughts around that?
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kippyzona
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PostPosted: 14:34 - 21 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

.
Quote:

What are your thoughts around that?

As long as Nigel gets his blue passport and Murdoch gets to do exactly what he wants surely we're all prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice?
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 14:55 - 21 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
Does shipping cost more than their products? Well, carriage, tooling, travel, manufacturing (i.e. buying machines from overseas), buying in packaging and marketing in the UK and from the UK to other countries to attempt to sell products all costs 20% more. This requires travel so everything from a hotel room to a flight to food is now more expensive hence his margins are hurting.

I'm still not seeing how a 20% increase in his spending can be more than a 20% increase in his earnings unless he's already running at a loss.

Anyway, Sterling is up on the election announcement, so presumably he's happy now (about running at a loss?)
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Baggyman
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PostPosted: 16:43 - 21 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
Baggyman wrote:
Two way street - if all the europrenuers that sell to the UK are faced with the same barriers, you/your friends could sell more stuff in the UK so that would be better.

It totally depends on the individual business and market sector and because it will hit Europe as well, there is a mutual incentive to not do something stupid anyway.


May I challenge this? Let's imagine big tariffs, say 50%, were slapped on all imports and cars could be an example.

If I wanted to set up a company in the UK manufacturing cars, I'd need to import all the parts so all the parts would cost 50% more. With a lower £, the carriage would cost more. In addition, buying machines to manufacture the cars would cost more as they would need to be imported. In the UK, we will not have more money so consumers will simply be unable to buy the cars which cost more. Therefore, slapping on tariffs makes it uneconomical not only to buy cars but to manufacture them as well because they cost more to build in a market where we will not have the money to buy them.

Ditto for clothes, food, petrol etc... The higher the tariffs, the more money it costs for us to manufacture the products but the higher prices mean consumers cannot afford the products.

If we print more money and distribute it to our population, the value of our currency drops further so the price of imports increases further and there is a self-fulfilling cycle.

Examples are the Great Depression in the US, The Empire Act in the UK (worth reading all the books around the death of British manufacturing), China etc...

What are your thoughts around that?


If...that happened in isolation for us? If...we make an assumption that even our politicians are not stupid enough to take a one sided deal then the same scenario would happen to a company in Europe.

People would then make rational choices on which markets they import from and export to, what business they ran and what they shut down.

There will always be winners and losers. That would be the case if we stay or if we go. It sucks to be a loser but that is the case now.

For all the bollox being talked on both sides of the channel, it will eventually be in everyone's interests to make it work.

I think my main point is that nothing can be considered in isolation so for your example, why would you think setting up a UK company to manufacture cars would be a good idea in those circumstances? If you think it is a bad idea, you would do something different that you thought would work better.
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gorillaonabik...
Nearly there...



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PostPosted: 18:29 - 21 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baggyman wrote:
If...that happened in isolation for us? If...we make an assumption that even our politicians are not stupid enough to take a one sided deal then the same scenario would happen to a company in Europe.

...

I think my main point is that nothing can be considered in isolation so for your example, why would you think setting up a UK company to manufacture cars would be a good idea in those circumstances? If you think it is a bad idea, you would do something different that you thought would work better.


The main point is that it doesn't matter if it is car, clothes or condoms. If we slap tariffs on and apply trade restrictions and tariffs on imports, those imported products become expensive and customers buy less.

If we try to make stuff ourselves, it also becomes expensive. Importing raw materials and machinery start to get expensive due to tariffs / trade barriers and that pushes up the price of finished goods. This means customers buy less because prices go up. Sellers lose because we can't sell and buyers lose because it's too expensive to buy.

That's the economic argument for not putting up tariff or trade barriers. As evidenced by The Great Depression (worth reading about), China etc...

Just my $0.02 and bearing in mind I have no idea what will happen. Back to looking at pics of Kawasakis...
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 11:11 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Saw this earlier: Commonwealth Development Corporation Act 2017 - CDC funding going up from £1B to £5B per year.

Sounds very Brexitty to me.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 12:10 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Every penny of the £12 billion or so that DfID bungs to nuclear armed regressive despots should be diverted to civilised Commonwealth countries with a shared culture.
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Sload
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PostPosted: 16:07 - 01 May 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bit of twatter for you sir? https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858810953353367552
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 16:41 - 01 May 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sload wrote:

Or read it on one page rather than in psuedo-live-reporting fashion.

If true, tl;dr version -

Arrow Sharia reckons she can pull off a faux-Brexit, laughs it off as no biggie to fool the proles. Have another bucket of wine, Drunkers.
Arrow Junker and Merkel are humourless belligerent backstabbing Europeans (apologies for all the redundancy) who intend to publicly stonewall and leak like string vests until we fold and beg to be let back in at any cost.

This all seems perfectly plausible, and it confirms my suspicions, which is why I'm treating it with scepticism. Bear in mind that this "story" is being "leaked" though a Europhile press that are desperate to scupper Brexit by any means necessary.

However, I do still believe based on her actions (lack of) that Sharia has no intention of delivering a real Brexit. I'll change my mind on that when the revocation of the 1972 ECA is done and dusted and not one second before.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 16:56 - 01 May 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sload wrote:

Juncker being a tw@t as usual.
Quote:
3)It is thought [in the Commission] that May wants to frustrate the daily business of the EU27, to improve her own negotiating position.
and,
Quote:
4)May seemed pissed off at Davis for regaling her dinner guests of his ECJ case against her data retention measures - three times.
Both pure tittle-tattle.
Quote:
5) EU side were astonished at May's suggestion that EU/UK expats issue could be sorted at EU Council meeting at the end of June.
Anyone having that status retains all current rights. Not hard is it?
Quote:
11) Juncker countered that Britain will now be a third state, not even (like Turkey) in the customs union: "Brexit cannot be a success".
He hopes. Nasty man.
Quote:
12) May seemed surprised by this and seemed to the EU side not to have been fully briefed.
Someone should have told her what a dick Juncker is.
Quote:
17) May then insisted to Juncker et al that UK owes EU no money because there is nothing to that effect in the treaties.
Good point!
Quote:
18) Her guests then informed her that the EU is not a golf club
Eh?
Quote:
19) Davis then objected that EU could not force a post-Brexit, post-ECJ UK to pay the bill. OK, said Juncker, then no trade deal.
Blackmail.

I also liked all the, "UK MSM won't report this!" paranoia. Incorrect.
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