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Sload
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PostPosted: 18:02 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Housing probabilities Reply with quote

Currently, in the market for buying, cash sum available and will require a mortgage but it seems the market has had another shot of Helium Surprised . Anyone else making predictions?

Also for the BTL landlords, I'm reading stirrings that might indicate a glut of properties being dumped onto the market, what's your take?

And as an anecdotal check this one out:

2.1 miliion purchase
Rent PA at 55.4k
Shocked Shocked
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47068038.html?utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=smspropertydetails&utm_source=url
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M.C
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PostPosted: 18:09 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stop it you're making me depressed Smile
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Sload
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PostPosted: 18:37 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
Stop it you're making me depressed Smile


Buying, selling?
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Copycat73
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PostPosted: 18:43 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Re: Housing probabilities Reply with quote

Sload wrote:

Also for the BTL landlords, I'm reading stirrings that might indicate a glut of properties being dumped onto the market, what's your take?


there has been an increase in red tape and tax for buy to let..

so you maybe correct.. Thinking
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andyscooter
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PostPosted: 18:46 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mate of mines just bought a couple of two bedroom flats for not a lot of money to rent out

he also has just bought an apartment in spain to use for holidays and the extra rent on the flats will pay for it

he can pay if flats are empty anyway as well as the two mortgages for the flats but the flats have never been empty for more then a month so far
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M.C
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PostPosted: 18:54 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sload wrote:
M.C wrote:
Stop it you're making me depressed Smile


Buying, selling?

Neither Smile Just another reminder I have no future in London and/or the South East. If I was selling that house I'd be looking forward to my retirement at 30.
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angryjonny
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PostPosted: 18:59 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's not one house, it's a portfolio of 6, unless I've misunderstood.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 19:07 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Offers in excess of £2,100,000 and yeah, it's for six properties so that's £350k each. Look at similar properties that have recently sold and they sell for about £450k.
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Sload
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PostPosted: 19:54 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Correct, I worked out the yield at 2.64%. All things equal that's £769 rental per month per property. I'm not a landlord but the deal looks crazy to me Shocked

It's premised on hpi gains I guess.

I'm also reading Carney has managed to pry open the credit taps a bit more again.
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Tracey Suntan-King
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PostPosted: 21:09 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sload wrote:
Correct, I worked out the yield at 2.64%. All things equal that's £769 rental per month per property. I'm not a landlord but the deal looks crazy to me Shocked

It's premised on hpi gains I guess.


It's because, in that case, the 6 tenancies pre-date today's Assured Shorthold Tenancies. The tenants of those 6 houses are long-standing, paying below market rent, and protected by the rent act. The landlord can't set the rents (only the LA rent officer can) and he/she can't evict them without good reason. So, the tenants are there forever unless they default on the rent.

The properties are unlikely to be BTL or residential mortgageable with such low yields.

They are being marketed at below vacant possession value, in the hope of attracting a very patient cash buyer. Someone who will wait for the tenants to die or leave of their own accord. Which of course they won't because their rents are so low. It's a brilliant incentive not to leave.......or die.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 21:30 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Re: Housing probabilities Reply with quote

Sload wrote:


Also for the BTL landlords, I'm reading stirrings that might indicate a glut of properties being dumped onto the market, what's your take?
l



The dumping is already happening.


In a nutshell the following happened:

SDLP of 3% on any body who buys a 2nd property with finance outstanding on another property.


Section 24 (This is pretty much a nuclear bomb).

This did multiple things.

On April 6th 2016. Wear and tear allowance of 10% on the gross rental of residential property is no longer allowed. So rent out for £10,000 you could take off £1000 as an expense based on wear and tear on furnished properties.


On April 6th 2017 the taper kicks in.

Before this date mortgage interest was given at relief at the marginal rate of tax the person paid. Also income is considered AFTER expenses.


SCENARIO

Scenario BEFORE April 5th 2016

Rental income: £300,000 per annum

Mortgage interest: £200,000

Other legitimate expenses: £100,000 (e.g. insurance, letting, management, maintenance etc.)

Taxable income = zero.

Scenario After April 5th 2017 (taper starts in April 2017 and ends at 20% in 2020)

Rental income: £300,000 per annum

Legitimate expenses excluding interest: £100,000

Net taxable income = £200,000

Net cashflow is still zero but tax is payable on £200,000 less a tax credit of £40,000 due to the 20% relief on the £200,000 of mortgage interest.

Cash flow is zero but there is still tax payable. Of £36,100.00.


It gets worse!!!


Arrow I'll just put the rents up. Except rents are already as high as they can go. With London being 65%+ of take home pay. AND the tax just increases if they put their rents up. Interest only is being phased out. The huge amounts of interest were a business decision to reduce the taxable amounts.

Arrow I'll just sell up. Except selling up crystallises the gain on the property. This means they must pay capital gains tax on the sale. Problem is many BTL landlords took out loans on the increasing value of their properties and therefore have ALREADY SPENT THEIR CAPITAL GAINS.

Arrow Stick the landlords even with zero cash flow have to pay tax on it. Therefore this it's a lose lose situation.

Arrow I'll sell it to a ltd company. Except this is classed as a disposal and realises tax payable too. Banks are unlikely to give good lending rates as Ltd companies can easily welch by dissolving.


So


There are multiple ways out:

Arrow They could have invested the gains into EIS-qualifying investments. This takes 5 years though. It's 2017 and there are only 3 years before now and 2020.

Arrow They can sell at a loss ~ This means 2003-2004 prices.

Arrow They can go bankrupt.

Arrow They can emigrate and change domicile which costs an enormous amount of money and effort.
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 22:08 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Locally prices seem to be dipping at the moment, or at least standing relatively still.

Stamp duty on primary residence is a bit of a pain though.

Speaking personally, I'd prefer CGT on principal residence because I doubt I'd want to live in a starter home for more than a couple of years.

I think stamp duty is another instance where UK-wide rules just don't really work. Anywhere in London hits the 125K threshold, virtually anywhere hits the 5% band (250K) and most are well into that so you're looking at 2-3% stamp duty regardless of how long you stay there.

As an aside, how does 'principal residence' work if you buy a home with a few months left to go on a tenancy? Presumably that's quite a common thing, do you just claim the new place is principal even if you're doing it up first?


Last edited by Derivative on 22:13 - 01 Mar 2017; edited 1 time in total
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Ste
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PostPosted: 22:11 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Re: Housing probabilities Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Stuff

The question is, what will be the next way of propping up the housing market?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 22:21 - 01 Mar 2017    Post subject: Re: Housing probabilities Reply with quote

Ste wrote:

The question is, what will be the next way of propping up the housing market?


My guesses?

The government / BoE (same thing tbh) could cut rates to 0%. Or keep them at the low rate they are now.

SMI - Support for mortgage interest - lose your job government will pay mortgage interest stopping repos this will continue indefinitely.

Help to Buy ISAs will be changed to allow them to be used for deposits.

Bank of Mum and Dad still isn't tapped out yet.

Help to buy will be extended for a 4th iteration.

LAMS ~ Local Authority Mortgage Scheme will be extended with central government funds.

Equity loans will be extended. The BoE is literally giving money away via various schemes.

There is also foreign money laundering. My guess is that the UK government will do what many governments around the world do. Whereby if you buy an asset, start a company in the UK with X amount of turnover and or staff then the UK government will fast track you citizenship.


Pension contributions will be capped at 30,000 a year creating lots of hot money.

MIRAS re-introduced
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Sload
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PostPosted: 09:52 - 02 Mar 2017    Post subject: Re: Housing probabilities Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
The question is, what will be the next way of propping up the housing market?


https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-4263602/Bank-England-make-EASIER-borrow-mortgage.html
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DrDonnyBrago
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PostPosted: 13:20 - 02 Mar 2017    Post subject: Re: Housing probabilities Reply with quote

Sload wrote:


That £2.1m is for 6 houses.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 15:06 - 02 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't understand why you would bother. You could dip into that taking £42,000 a year and it would last you 50 years, or generate 55k minus all your costs. Is it just me?

It's like on property programs such as escape to the country, the obscene sums of money that I could quite happily retire on. I realise people are not (generally) buying houses with cash, but when it's 700k for a cottage in some dead village, you wonder what people are smoking.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 18:11 - 02 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
I don't understand why you would bother. You could dip into that taking £42,000 a year and it would last you 50 years, or generate 55k minus all your costs.



It's to guard against inflation.

Holding vast qualities of cash is a huge risk inflation wise. Your cash will lose 3-6% purchasing power each year. Go look at food tins. I'm pretty sure they used to be 450grams now 400g.

Thus if there is a serious burst of inflation either push or pull or the government goes a bit funny with the printing press you've protected your wealth.

Secondly it is cake and eating it. With your £42,000 being scooped out of your pot each year your capital diminishes. Plus remember the above £42,000 may not be able to maintain your life style and increasing amounts have to be scooped out of your pot. Taxes may increase considerably for instance.

Buying such an asset and spending your pot allows you to generate income, then at some point in the future you sell your asset and get your pot + inflation back AND the income generated while you were renting it out.

A very similar effect happens with footballers and sports stars. They amass a gigantic pot of money in their prime years as athletes. They then retire... except their spending doesn't decrease and sometimes increases because they have so much free time. They dip into the pot and exhaust it way before they die. They are then in serious trouble. Alex Higgins went this way. While the Gary Linekers of the athlete world ? They do adverts and commentate for the BBC continue to generate income.

Looper has a similar take on it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jyf5TTLBpMc

He starts off with a massive stash and in the end his nest egg is all but depleted towards the end and he is forced to work again.



I can see similar things happen with my peers. Many of my cousins retired at 31 (yes 31) having made £100K a year slogging 15 years of hot food business. They put £6-700,000 in the bank and sat pretty with interest income of £30000 a year. Then bank interest rates went through the floor and they had to dig into that pile of money. Except they'd also been out of work for nearly a decade and had no limited means of replenishing the money they took out.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 18:32 - 02 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Derivative wrote:

As an aside, how does 'principal residence' work if you buy a home with a few months left to go on a tenancy? Presumably that's quite a common thing, do you just claim the new place is principal even if you're doing it up first?


You get rental relief as part of your principle private residence. Plus IIRC you get a minimum amount of principle private residence relief.

Looked it up (because I'm boring like that).

Principle private residence you get :

Arrow the last 18 months before you sold your home
Arrow the first 12 months you owned the home if it was being built, renovated or you couldn’t sell your old home
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M.C
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PostPosted: 19:09 - 02 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
M.C wrote:
I don't understand why you would bother. You could dip into that taking £42,000 a year and it would last you 50 years, or generate 55k minus all your costs.



It's to guard against inflation.

Holding vast qualities of cash is a huge risk inflation wise. Your cash will lose 3-6% purchasing power each year. Go look at food tins. I'm pretty sure they used to be 450grams now 400g.

Thus if there is a serious burst of inflation either push or pull or the government goes a bit funny with the printing press you've protected your wealth.

Secondly it is cake and eating it. With your £42,000 being scooped out of your pot each year your capital diminishes. Plus remember the above £42,000 may not be able to maintain your life style and increasing amounts have to be scooped out of your pot. Taxes may increase considerably for instance.

Buying such an asset and spending your pot allows you to generate income, then at some point in the future you sell your asset and get your pot + inflation back AND the income generated while you were renting it out.

A very similar effect happens with footballers and sports stars. They amass a gigantic pot of money in their prime years as athletes. They then retire... except their spending doesn't decrease and sometimes increases because they have so much free time. They dip into the pot and exhaust it way before they die. They are then in serious trouble. Alex Higgins went this way. While the Gary Linekers of the athlete world ? They do adverts and commentate for the BBC continue to generate income.

Looper has a similar take on it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jyf5TTLBpMc

He starts off with a massive stash and in the end his nest egg is all but depleted towards the end and he is forced to work again.



I can see similar things happen with my peers. Many of my cousins retired at 31 (yes 31) having made £100K a year slogging 15 years of hot food business. They put £6-700,000 in the bank and sat pretty with interest income of £30000 a year. Then bank interest rates went through the floor and they had to dig into that pile of money. Except they'd also been out of work for nearly a decade and had no limited means of replenishing the money they took out.

I realise interest rates are low but that's still a large pot of money to do something with. I would have thought the housing market's riskier, unless there's never going to be another crash?
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Sload
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PostPosted: 19:19 - 02 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Getting a mixed bag of feedback from the agents but the consensus is we will continue to rise as opposed to stagnate.

I know from looking and tracking it's regional but this could also be from the currency devaluation and they are stagnant and are not shifting in real terms.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 19:49 - 02 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
I realise interest rates are low but that's still a large pot of money to do something with. I would have thought the housing market's riskier, unless there's never going to be another crash?



You're correct it is riskier, but only in a free market.

It's not a free market though.

The difference is all the moral hazard of losing your shirt has been removed and the UK government acts as an absolute guarantor for the housing market... which is actually a proxy for the banks.

The government will do anything no matter to cost or consequences to rig the housing market and protect the banks no matter what.

The government printed money an incredible no no in economics to protect the housing market.

The government reduced living standards to protect the housing market.

The government actively turns a blind eye to money laundering from foreigners to prop up the housing market.

Living costs and thus viability of factories and production increased because of the above.

Loads of things.

At extremis look at what Japan did. The Japanese government burned their children for 3 generations in order to attempt (and fail) to protect the Japanese housing market.



The main point you should take away from this is that markets, governments and people can be irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.




The problem is the government are approaching a point where there are only bad and very bad outcomes left.
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Last edited by Itchy on 19:51 - 02 Mar 2017; edited 1 time in total
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iooi
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PostPosted: 19:49 - 02 Mar 2017    Post subject: Re: Housing probabilities Reply with quote

Sload wrote:
Ste wrote:
The question is, what will be the next way of propping up the housing market?


https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-4263602/Bank-England-make-EASIER-borrow-mortgage.html


That is going to be fun.... Looking at the % people are already paying for a mortgage, up the limit they can borrow and any increase in interest rates will cripple many people.

When you think back to the last crash. One reason cited was people were being lent to much money....
Now WTF are the BofE telling banks etc to do.... Rolling Eyes

I would not be surprised to see many lenders to not alter their lending criteria.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 19:57 - 02 Mar 2017    Post subject: Re: Housing probabilities Reply with quote

iooi wrote:

That is going to be fun.... Looking at the % people are already paying for a mortgage, up the limit they can borrow and any increase in interest rates will cripple many people.



This is one of the big binds.

A lose lose situation.

If the government doesn't increase interest rates like the 80s and 90s to defend the £. Then the £ gets trashed and living standards fall. Living standards fall because people can buy less stuff even home grown (UK) and home made (UK) stuff. As much of the stuff is exported instead as was the Irish famine paradox. Whereby food exports increased during shortages and famines.


Yet if they increase interest rates people who stretched themselves to the limit can no longer keep their heads above water and therefore start claiming SMI (hammering government budgets) get repo'd (costing the government more). Or they simply go bankrupt causing a reversal of bank balance sheet expansion.


It's quite a pickle.
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Sload
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PostPosted: 15:12 - 04 Mar 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blinkin eck! https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08g2tvy
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