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General Election: 8th June 2017

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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 21:25 - 28 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
ScaredyCat wrote:
I know you believe that, but you're wrong.

259 days to declare Article 50.

Two hundred and fifty nine.


ScaredyCat wrote:
It will happen, she will get a massive majority and they will continue to sell off the country to their chums.

Did your post get cut off before you contradicted my point in any way?
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Val
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PostPosted: 23:30 - 28 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
What if lib-dems win or get 100 seats or 50 seats and May does not have a majority? Can happen Laughing

Political volatility can be exploited in Britain too.

It happened in US. Happens now in France too with Macron.

Do not believe tainted YouGov polls where they do not select the participants randomly.

Here is a poll from 19400 real people that shows completely different story.

Granted Business Insiders readers are not exactly UKIP flock, nevertheless that shows there are a lot of people that are completely fed up with both Corbyn and May.

Lib-dems have a real chance to do very well.

What if they win the GE 2017?

https://i.imgur.com/pEJbpZB.jpg

They do have won against major tory candidate in Richmond. What will stop them to remove Theresa May and Corbyn from their remain majority seats?

https://i.imgur.com/xqdx7Ar.jpg

Tim Faron is aiming exactly for that:

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/tim-farron-liberal-democrats-bidding-become-main-opposition/

Pass the popcorn
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M.C
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PostPosted: 00:09 - 29 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
The people who take part in polls are the people who take part in polls. The reason they got the EU referendum and US elections so wrong's well...

M.C wrote:
The people who take part in polls are the people who take part in polls.
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ScaredyCat
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PostPosted: 00:11 - 29 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
M.C wrote:
The people who take part in polls are the people who take part in polls.

M.C wrote:
The people who take part in polls are the people who take part in polls.

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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 07:17 - 29 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
https://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/

The only survey worth a damn is the BSA, because of their methodology of picking 3000 representative people and doggedly seeking their opinions. They called the 2015 election correctly when every other poll was showing it as being a close race, or a Labour win.

That's because all (AFAICT) other polls use the cheap, lazy methods of: 'random' sampling the first 1000 dole spongers and Mumsneteers who actually pick up the phone or answer the door; or soliciting opinions and getting flooded by activists or scripts, as clearly happened in that Business Insider one.

Unfortunately, the BSA methodology also precludes quick re-sampling when events change, and they haven't done their 2017 survey yet.

I suspect that Sharia's majority won't increase by much, if anything. But it's not about that, it's about giving her a full 5 year mandate to derail Brexit.
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Suntan Sid
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PostPosted: 09:47 - 29 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:
I suspect that Sharia's majority won't increase by much, if anything. But it's not about that, it's about giving her a full 5 year mandate to derail Brexit.


In my 'umble opinion, this GE has a lot more to do with the Tories using a, highly likely, increased majority to steamroller through a lot of extremely unpopular legislation, the Brexit fiasco is a done deal, but merely secondary.
They'll be looking at more privatisations, massive tax cuts for those that don't need 'em, even more draconian snooping powers and as many ways as they can think of for diverting public money into the grubby, grasping, hands of their party donors.
Brexit is the diversion, as long as the electorate are transfixed by that, they won't even know or care about what's about to hit 'em!
It's a trap and the country's sleepwalking into it!
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Ste
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PostPosted: 09:55 - 29 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Suntan Sid wrote:
the Brexit fiasco is a done deal

Laughing

It's not going to be a done deal for years and even then, parts of it will be dragged out over decades.

Suntan Sid wrote:
They'll be looking at more privatisations

Privatisation like Nu Labour did?
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 11:53 - 29 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Suntan Sid wrote:


In my 'umble opinion, this GE has a lot more to do with the Tories using a, highly likely, increased majority to steamroller through a lot of extremely unpopular legislation, the Brexit fiasco is a done deal, but merely secondary.


I know facebook etc is now set up so that users are all put in little ideological bubbles, but I'm really getting the impression the Tories don't necessarily have this in the bag. Okay they might win, but given the diehard anti-Tory groups, along with Remainers who don't want a 'hard Brexit', I really don't think there'll be an increased majority at all.

There are claims that the election was called because of this - CPS considering charges against over 30 people including Tory MPs over expenses - which would apparently render the current government untenable so power would be handed to the opposition. An election apparently gets around all that. Given that she continually said there would be no general election, I suspect the reasoning is a little more insidious than a simple (and stupid) gamble for May to increase her majority.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 14:55 - 29 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Lord Percy wrote:
Given that she continually said there would be no general election, I suspect the reasoning is a little more insidious than a simple (and stupid) gamble for May to increase her majority.

To repeat myself (Folded arms) look at what happened with Brown, he went from popular in the polls to being voted out. CBA checking how un-elected PM's have faired in the past but of the two I can remember they both went at the next election.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 14:57 - 29 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
M.C wrote:
Lord Percy wrote:
Given that she continually said there would be no general election, I suspect the reasoning is a little more insidious than a simple (and stupid) gamble for May to increase her majority.

To repeat myself (Folded arms) look at what happened with Brown, he went from popular in the polls to being voted out. CBA checking how un-elected PM's have faired in the past but of the two I can remember they both went at the next election.


Brown had the opportunity to do a Teresa and call an early election. He didn't, and his popularity took a dive due to recession and Gillian Duffy, among other things. Laughing
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Val
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PostPosted: 00:06 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Suntan Sid wrote:
the Brexit fiasco is a done deal


Hold your horses here. There may be second referndum coming up.

Cause the government does not know the UK law apparently Laughing

Section 2 of the European Union Act 2011 wrote:

"or the removal of any limitation on any such power of an EU institution or body"


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-court-challenge-second-referendum-dr-andrew-watt-a7709136.html

This is an UK law that requires referndum in case EU power has been removed. Which is exactly the Brexit case. Brace yourself for another lost court case and a new referendum. HTH
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Last edited by Val on 00:18 - 30 Apr 2017; edited 1 time in total
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 00:14 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Val wrote:
Suntan Sid wrote:
the Brexit fiasco is a done deal


Hold your horses here. There may be second referndum coming up.

Cause the government does not know the UK law apparently Laughing

Section 2 of the European Union Act 2011 wrote:

"or the removal of any limitation on any such power of an EU institution or body"


This is an UK law that requires referndum in case EU power has been removed. Which is exactly the Brexit case. Brace yourself for another lost court case and a new referendum. HTH


Link please, I cannot see that anywhere in Section 2?
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Val
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PostPosted: 00:17 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Jewlio Rides Again wrote:


Link please, I cannot see that anywhere in Section 2?



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-court-challenge-second-referendum-dr-andrew-watt-a7709136.html

Quote:
Treaties amending or replacing TEU or TFEU

(1)A treaty which amends or replaces TEU or TFEU is not to be ratified unless—

(a)a statement relating to the treaty was laid before Parliament in accordance with section 5,

(b)the treaty is approved by Act of Parliament, and

(c)the referendum condition or the exemption condition is met.

(2)The referendum condition is that—

(a)the Act providing for the approval of the treaty provides that the provision approving the treaty is not to come into force until a referendum about whether the treaty should be ratified has been held throughout the United Kingdom or, where the treaty also affects Gibraltar, throughout the United Kingdom and Gibraltar,

(b)the referendum has been held, and

(c)the majority of those voting in the referendum are in favour of the ratification of the treaty.

(3)The exemption condition is that the Act providing for the approval of the treaty states that the treaty does not fall within section 4.


Bold parts mean that first there must be agreed treaty for the withdrawal and afterwards this same treaty must be approved by act of the Parliament and a referendum.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 00:26 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
This is section 2:

Quote:
2 Treaties amending or replacing TEU or TFEU

(1)A treaty which amends or replaces TEU or TFEU is not to be ratified unless—
(a)a statement relating to the treaty was laid before Parliament in accordance with section 5,
(b)the treaty is approved by Act of Parliament, and
(c)the referendum condition or the exemption condition is met.
(2)The referendum condition is that—
(a)the Act providing for the approval of the treaty provides that the provision approving the treaty is not to come into force until a referendum about whether the treaty should be ratified has been held throughout the United Kingdom or, where the treaty also affects Gibraltar, throughout the United Kingdom and Gibraltar,
(b)the referendum has been held, and
(c)the majority of those voting in the referendum are in favour of the ratification of the treaty.
(3)The exemption condition is that the Act providing for the approval of the treaty states that the treaty does not fall within section 4.


I would say he's thinking about this bit:

(1)A treaty which amends or replaces TEU or TFEU is not to be ratified unless—
(a)a statement relating to the treaty was laid before Parliament in accordance with section 5,
(b)the treaty is approved by Act of Parliament, and
(c)the referendum condition or the exemption condition is met.

(a) Done
(b) Done
(c) Done

Unless it's going to be argued that it was done arse about face? [/url]
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:46 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
2 Treaties amending or replacing TEU or TFEU

(2)The referendum condition is that—
(a) the Act providing for the approval of the treaty provides that the provision approving the treaty is not to come into force until a referendum about whether the treaty should be ratified has been held throughout the United Kingdom or, where the treaty also affects Gibraltar, throughout the United Kingdom and Gibraltar,

Would seem to apply. We haven't seen any such Act yet, because Sharia has been in full delay mode.

Quote:
(3)The exemption condition is that the Act providing for the approval of the treaty states that the treaty does not fall within section 4.

Section 4 does appear to contain clauses that should apply.

I reckon we're up for a 2nd referendum, should Sharia ever produce a divorce Act.

However, I can't see how it could apply to an Act that revokes the 1972 ECA, since that only deals with UK law, and doesn't give any powers to the EU. The Remoaners will inevitably launch a challenge anyway, and it's a moot point unless Sharia does try to revoke it.

That's all we need to do to actually achieve Brexit, since we could then just ignore Berlin Brussels, de facto and de jure, without further meddling by Miller and her cabal.

The sooner we do it, the stronger our negotiating position, so one might ask why it's not Sharia's #1 priority and already in progress.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 14:26 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Jewlio Rides Again wrote:
M.C wrote:

To repeat myself (Folded arms) look at what happened with Brown, he went from popular in the polls to being voted out. CBA checking how un-elected PM's have faired in the past but of the two I can remember they both went at the next election.


Brown had the opportunity to do a Teresa and call an early election. He didn't, and his popularity took a dive due to recession and Gillian Duffy, among other things. Laughing


M.C as he said earlier wrote:
I think she's learnt the lesson from Gordan Brown, he went from responsibly popular to GTFO during his time in charge, and decided against calling a snap election when the polls were in his favour.


Fair point about the recession, even though it wasn't actually his fault, Mexicans and criminals were to blame right? Very Happy The Gillian Duffy thing's interesting, because it shows how even not that long ago immigration was still a taboo subject, well among mainstream politics anyway. Ultimately it lead to UKIP's rise in popularity > Cameron's gamble > Brexit (not that it was the only issue).
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 14:49 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
The thing is, GB got ruined by a smear about him selling off the countries gold, as if he somehow did it because he was stupid.

If you look into the reasons why he did it, I think it was a terrible position he was put in, by the banks, and had to make a judgement call that protected the people who were at risk due to banks greed. /Capitalistscvm
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 18:03 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Jewlio Rides Again wrote:
If you look into the reasons why he did it

Stealth bail-out of (((Goldman Sachs))).

Surely you got that memo.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 18:58 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Jewlio Rides Again wrote:
The thing is, GB got ruined by a smear about him selling off the countries gold, as if he somehow did it because he was stupid.

If you look into the reasons why he did it, I think it was a terrible position he was put in, by the banks, and had to make a judgement call that protected the people who were at risk due to banks greed. /Capitalistscvm

I thought he sold the gold off way before and people were lambasting him for not having a crystal ball?
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 19:28 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
I did get the memo Borg, which is why I think a little more of him than I used to (oo-er).
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 19:52 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
I know polls aren't to be trust, but here's some polling news: Tory lead against Labour loses 50% in a week
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 19:54 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Lord Percy wrote:
I know polls aren't to be trust, but here's some polling news: Tory lead against Labour loses 50% in a week


What reasons have been given for the swing?
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 20:07 - 30 Apr 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote
Jewlio Rides Again wrote:
Lord Percy wrote:
I know polls aren't to be trust, but here's some polling news: Tory lead against Labour loses 50% in a week


What reasons have been given for the swing?


https://i.imgflip.com/1o6ckg.jpg

I suspect if opinions really have slipped, it's likely because the Tories have done naff all to show what people are voting for if they vote Tory, other than that they'd be voting 'Not Labour'.

Has anyone actually seen anything to do with Tory policy or pledges?

Here's an interesting clip from a recent Question Time event - https://www.facebook.com/RedLabour2016/videos/452903495046434/?pnref=story

I saw another clip too where a Tory candidate on QT pretty much said, "Oh our policies will be published next week." Screams of 'rabbits in headlights' to me. The election was clearly called for other reasons, and now the Tory's lack of substance is showing fantastically.
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