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'Twas but Project Fear, one year later

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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 16:17 - 22 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
My my, overtaken by Italy... Surely we need even more even harder Brexit to address that. BUILD THE WALL!

https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12D07/production/_100136077_ukgdpvseu-nc-5.png

But... we're still in the EU. Morally, ethically; spiritually, physically; positively, absolutely; undeniably and reliably, in.

We haven't taken a single substantive step towards Brexit.

Surely while we're enjoying all the benefits that come from being a fully paid up member of the European Union, we should be enjoying bumper growth and prosperity?

Are you saying that's not the case? Thinking
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 17:46 - 22 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

The thing is we will get a shit Brexit deal. End of.
The reason is quite simply that if we got a reasonable deal, then other EU countries would think "hmm well if the UK got that, so can we", countries will leave and the EU will collapse.
I'm assuming they don't want that to happen.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 18:05 - 22 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's nice, now bring on the hardest Brexit possible.

I agree that the EU will collapse but other countries should be able to get out before that happens.

Maybe they could join The British Empire, that would really wind up Juncker and all the other EU bureaucrats. Twisted Evil
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 18:45 - 22 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
My my, overtaken by Italy... Surely we need even more even harder Brexit to address that. BUILD THE WALL!

https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12D07/production/_100136077_ukgdpvseu-nc-5.png


Let's just take a moment to talk about that bar chart.

So. It's is reporting a percentage change in a percentage change. (% change in % growth of GDP).

That is a dirty statistical trick used to make an infitesimal difference between numbersets look like a big one. Even then they've had to stretch the axis (presumably why it's horizontal rather than vertical) to make the differences look even larger and add in something that isn't even a country to make it look like the bottom item is lower down.

They have also picked one specific quarter to compare.

I move it be stricken from the record.
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kippyzona
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PostPosted: 19:25 - 22 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

No trade deal means the goods that I sell will go up by 30%.
That means me and 5 other people out of a job.
25 years years we have grown our business.
That's what Brexit is all about. Putting hard working British people out of a job.
I assume a lot of you on here are used to being on the dole, I shall be back asking for tips on being a sponger.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 19:46 - 22 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

kippyzona wrote:
That's what Brexit is all about. Putting hard working British people out of a job.

Darn, you got one of the secret ballot papers with that on it? I thought we'd got the distribution list correct. Pale
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 20:40 - 22 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:

Let's just take a moment to talk about that bar chart.


Sure! Thumbs Up

Quote:

So. It's is reporting a percentage change in a percentage change. (% change in % growth of GDP).


No, it's just % growth.

Quote:

They have also picked one specific quarter to compare.

No, it's annual growth.

Quote:

I move it be stricken from the record.


And after the corrections?
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Val
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PostPosted: 21:45 - 22 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
My my, overtaken by Italy... Surely we need even more even harder Brexit to address that. BUILD THE WALL!

https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12D07/production/_100136077_ukgdpvseu-nc-5.png


Here I have created a new bus for you:

https://i.imgur.com/MJtxUb2.jpg
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 22:07 - 22 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

The sub-heading is confused. "Q4 on Q4" is a comparison of one year's final quarter (we have to assume it's 2017) with the previous year's final quarter. Appending "annual" to it adds nothing. I see what Stinkwheel means about % change in % growth too. Simply "Q4 on Q4 GDP" would make more sense, assuming it's trying to show that UK GDP was 1.4% down in 4Q 2017 compared to Q4 2016. Looks like a clueless BBC reporter using European Commission publications to knock up a graph. Neutral
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:58 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
assuming it's trying to show that UK GDP was 1.4% down in 4Q 2017 compared to Q4 2016. Looks like a clueless BBC reporter using European Commission publications to knock up a graph. Neutral

Yes, the scary red line might be inferred by the easily startled to mean "down", but it's not. It's 1.5% up, Q4 2017 vs Q4 2016. See below.


cdlxxvi wrote:
stinkwheel wrote:
They have also picked one specific quarter to compare.

No, it's annual growth.

I'm afraid (not in the sense that you're terrified) that it's not. It's comparing Q4 2017 to Q4 2016, which is not the same as annual growth over the whole year.

Don't take my word for it though, read the real fake news here from the source:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/8662991/2-14022018-BP-EN.pdf/ccf970c0-bb55-4a22-b8ea-d50d5a92586d


cdlxxvi wrote:
stinkwheel wrote:
I move it be stricken from the record.

And after the corrections?

I'm delighted to have your ignorance of economics on record.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 11:27 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:

No, it's just % growth.


No it's percentage change in GDP growth (which is also expressed as a percentage), says so in black and white right at the top. Percentage change and actual percentage are not the same thing.

If anyone ever shows tyou a chart or graph showing percentage change, they are trying to make a small difference look like a bigger one.

No reason to do it like that. They could have just shown percentage GDP growth.

Quote:

No, it's annual growth.

No, it's year on year percentage change for the fourth quarter. Again, right there at the top of the chart.

Quote:

And after the corrections?


Yes. Highly selective, bad stats.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 13:24 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

For reference, the actual GPD growth for the UK was 0.4% in Q4 of 2017.

For comparison, GDP growth for the Euro zone was 0.6% for Q4 of 2017.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 13:43 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
For reference, the actual GPD growth for the UK was 0.4% in Q4 of 2017.

If we're going by the source quoted for that chart - and I think we should, for consistency - UK GDP growth for Q4 2017 was cited as 0.5%.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 15:22 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
stinkwheel wrote:
For reference, the actual GPD growth for the UK was 0.4% in Q4 of 2017.

If we're going by the source quoted for that chart - and I think we should, for consistency - UK GDP growth for Q4 2017 was cited as 0.5%.


Ahh. But it was revised down by 0.1% earlier this week, which is presumably what triggered the outburst in the first place.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 16:05 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
Yes, the scary red line might be inferred by the easily startled to mean "down", but it's not. It's 1.5% up, Q4 2017 vs Q4 2016. See below.

But but but it would have been 2% without Brexit (according to the Guardian).

M.C wrote:
The narrative has shifted to the economy would have grown even faster had we not vote to leave yadayada Sleeping


What would it have been had we not spent the last 18 months arguing/trying to overturn/block the results of a democratic referendum?

There was a piece on the news the other day about productivity being up, and the newsreader discussing the matter through gritted teeth Laughing
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 17:22 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:

No, it's just % growth.


No it's percentage change in GDP growth (which is also expressed as a percentage), says so in black and white right at the top.

For that to be true, the difference between 0.7% (growth in Q4 2016) and 0.4% (growth in Q4 2017) would have to be 1.4%.

On the other hand, the difference between GDP in Q4 2016 and in Q4 2017 is 1.4%.
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cdlxxvi
Nearly there...



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PostPosted: 17:34 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:

cdlxxvi wrote:

No, it's annual growth.

It's comparing Q4 2017 to Q4 2016, which is not the same as annual growth over the whole year.

Yes, thank you for pointing that out.

Quote:

Don't take my word for it though, read the real fake news here from the source:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/8662991/2-14022018-BP-EN.pdf/ccf970c0-bb55-4a22-b8ea-d50d5a92586d

... which again confirms that Great Brexit is being overperformed by Italy. But not to worry, we still have a fighting chance against Greece.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 17:37 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:

On the other hand, the difference between GDP in Q4 2016 and in Q4 2017 is 1.4%.


So the difference between £485,897 (Q4 2016) and 492,674 (Q4 2017) is 1.4%? (figures from your link)

Interesting because while I'm no mathematical genius, I make it 1.01%.
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I did the 2010 Round Britain Rally on my 350 Bullet. 89 landmarks, 3 months, 9,500 miles.
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Monkeywrenche...
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PostPosted: 18:24 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

This IMF tool (should you choose to accept it) shows us out performing Italy up to 2022.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
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kippyzona
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PostPosted: 19:07 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I don't believe you. All your raw materials are from the EU and we're going to slap a 30% tariff just on your raw materials are we?

WTO tariff on chocolate is 30%.
Not making it up.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 19:25 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

kippyzona wrote:
WTO tariff on chocolate is 30%.
Not making it up.



EU has a trade pact/deal with Ghana and Ivory coast. They supply 50% of the world's cocoa beans. Add in Cameroon that also signed the agreement and it's 58%.

Of the beans that enter Europe 8% of them enter the UK for processing and grinding. 92% go to EU nations.

https://www.cbi.eu/sites/default/files/market_information/researches/trade-statistics-europe-cocoa-2016.pdf
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 19:27 - 23 Feb 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:

So the difference between £485,897 (Q4 2016) and 492,674 (Q4 2017) is 1.4%? (figures from your link)

Interesting because while I'm no mathematical genius, I make it 1.01%.


How?

492674 - 485897 = 6777
6777 / 485897 ≃ 0.0139 ≃ 1.4%
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