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PostPosted: 23:59 - 23 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

ThoughtControl wrote:
The compact city model will likely become a reality. Your everyday necessity will be provided within it, and travel will not be needed, except by those doing essential work and authorised to travel outside the city zone. Itchy has hinted at this "city utopia" and the UN mandarins have postulated on this ideal model for nearly 3 decades.

But who will populate these cities? Cities have historically catered for the peasant folk (kinda why they existed in the first place), sure there have been affluent areas within, but I don't think there has been the widespread gentrification we're seeing now. Unless robots replace every menial job I can see a problem.
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PostPosted: 02:44 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe not tomorrow but within a few hundred years it will all turn to ratshit.

I can't see a future beyond social collapse unless there is a breakthrough for basically free power for all. Energy will be priced out of reach of all but the wealthy.

No one will be able to buy their own home, it will be well out of the price of 90% of the population. Look at some of the 6 foot cages people live in in Hong Kong now and see the future.

The peasants in the cities will live in a concrete shit hole (they do now in my view but a worse one). The very lucky few will have reasonable jobs, the ones in service industries will be scrimping to survive. The ones out of work probably won't survive.

It won't be long before the country can't support 20/30/40 years of people living on state pensions, let alone the huge pension amounts they pay for the politicians/police/fire/teachers/civil servants etc. etc. It won't be able to support the NHS or good schooling because there won't be that many people in tax paying jobs. Work will either be done by machines or people on zero hour contracts.

It will be a modern form of slavery in everything but name. The rich will be able to hire/buy people to do whatever they want. When the choice is starvation or subservience, it's pretty obvious what will be chosen. Your posh apartment will come with 'furniture'. If you have seen a certain film, you will know what that is. Laughing

Doomsday scenario, possibly but I can't see life getting better for the masses from now on.

The sad thing is, like ThoughtControl, I was brought up in the unlimited nuclear energy, flying cars, not having to work, luxury future promised in the 60's. I actually believed it for a while when they were building all the nuclear plants at Hinkley, Sizewell etc.

I hope for the sake of my grandchildren and their offspring I am wrong.
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Sun Wukong
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PostPosted: 12:04 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
Maybe not tomorrow but within a few hundred years it will all turn to ratshit.


I think that is optimistic.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SDVzstFaU24/Tp-4qZKSoRI/AAAAAAAAAEo/dQjOy2iFZZs/s1600/Limits+to+Growth+Standard+Model.jpg

Note that is from 40 years ago, and the updated graph from their model from 2004, and further checking recently shows no real deviation from it.

Growth in consumption and standard of living until around 2015, and then ratshit. Doubling all natural resources barely buys an extra 30 years due to exponential capital growth.

We all fucked. Signs are starting to appear everywhere.

Happy Christmas fuckers Thumbs Up
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 12:47 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's a school of thought that the USA de facto stopped the global use of DDT, which they knew to be quite safe, in order to keep the African population down.

Discuss-ting.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:00 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
No one will be able to buy their own home, it will be well out of the price of 90% of the population.


Um no, there is a big demographic problem you see. The boomer generation may well be sitting pretty on their 500K houses. But if nobody can buy them and there are not as many people to buy them due to the boomer bulge then prices can only go one way.

Even Japan has had falling house prices for 3 decades.

Polarbear wrote:
Look at some of the 6 foot cages people live in in Hong Kong now and see the future.


Yes some, but HK has the paradox of capitalism. The more capitalist they are the more socialist they become.

40-45% of the population live in rent controlled government housing.

This goes on to my next point.

Polarbear wrote:
It won't be long before the country can't support 20/30/40 years of people living on state pensions


All of the above is a case of moral hazard. If you don't work if you don't save up if you don't make the right decisions this is where you will end up.

OTOH UK? Save for a pension? Then you get means tested benefits cut so you are in exactly the same position as somebody who didn't save and peed it up the wall each week.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:02 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
There's a school of thought that the USA de facto stopped the global use of DDT, which they knew to be quite safe, in order to keep the African population down.

Discuss-ting.


It's not just the US.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/frances-colonial-tax-still-enforced-for-africa-bleeding-africa-and-feeding-france/5547512

TL:DR Some Ex-French colonies still had to pay Danegeld to the French for decades after the French left.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 13:04 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun Wukong wrote:
Polarbear wrote:
Maybe not tomorrow but within a few hundred years it will all turn to ratshit.


I think that is optimistic.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SDVzstFaU24/Tp-4qZKSoRI/AAAAAAAAAEo/dQjOy2iFZZs/s1600/Limits+to+Growth+Standard+Model.jpg

Note that is from 40 years ago, and the updated graph from their model from 2004, and further checking recently shows no real deviation from it.

Growth in consumption and standard of living until around 2015, and then ratshit. Doubling all natural resources barely buys an extra 30 years due to exponential capital growth.

We all fucked. Signs are starting to appear everywhere.

Happy Christmas fuckers Thumbs Up


Universe is essentially unlimited and so growth is essentially unbounded Wink

The capitalist model doesn't work very well though for really impressive stuff.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 13:17 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun Wukong wrote:
Polarbear wrote:
Maybe not tomorrow but within a few hundred years it will all turn to ratshit.


I think that is optimistic.


That graph is pure pessimistic guesswork. Are we meant to take it seriously?
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Sun Wukong
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PostPosted: 13:21 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im-a-Ridah wrote:


Universe is essentially unlimited and so growth is essentially unbounded Wink

The capitalist model doesn't work very well though for really impressive stuff.


Indeed, the invisible hand assume infinite resources.

Pigou ftw!
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 14:25 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun Wukong wrote:
Im-a-Ridah wrote:


Universe is essentially unlimited and so growth is essentially unbounded Wink

The capitalist model doesn't work very well though for really impressive stuff.


Indeed, the invisible hand assume infinite resources.

Pigou ftw!


It also assumes no other new materials or renewable methods of production will be invented.
If they fathom synthesising carbon fibre without the need for fossil fuel, then those sort of resources are fairly abundant.
Tide, wind and solar energy will always be present.
Farming and agriculture can be modernised and production increased.

Quote:
At the time of the 1972 model development, the authors did not claim that the model was either predictive or quantitative. Instead, the focus was simply to construct the model and observe the behavior of the simulation. After the "standard run" base case was created, the model was perturbed in various ways, and the variation between runs was considered. Model inputs matched historical data from 1900 to 1970, and matched the exponential rates of growth observed through most of the 20th century. The number of parameters was very small: Population, Food Supply, Arable Land, Non-renewable Natural Resources, Industrial Production, Pollution, etc.


In 1972 we thought we'd all be on hoverboards by the year 2000 and the planet would have died under a flood of acid rain and burnt by a massive hole in the ozone layer.

Apparently, cutting down on aerosol CFC's cured all that and we still have no hoverboards.
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Sun Wukong
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PostPosted: 17:20 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:




It also assumes no other new materials or renewable methods of production will be invented.
If they fathom synthesising carbon fibre without the need for fossil fuel, then those sort of resources are fairly abundant.
Tide, wind and solar energy will always be present.
Farming and agriculture can be modernised and production increased.

Quote:
At the time of the 1972 model development, the authors did not claim that the model was either predictive or quantitative. Instead, the focus was simply to construct the model and observe the behavior of the simulation. After the "standard run" base case was created, the model was perturbed in various ways, and the variation between runs was considered. Model inputs matched historical data from 1900 to 1970, and matched the exponential rates of growth observed through most of the 20th century. The number of parameters was very small: Population, Food Supply, Arable Land, Non-renewable Natural Resources, Industrial Production, Pollution, etc.




The "technology will save us" falacy. If we invent something that will double the yield of agricultural lands, it just buys time.

Also, we are at peak food already, with shrinking agricultural lands, shrinking yields from those lands and another 4 billion mewling mouths to add to the fun.

Oh aye, the hoverboards will save us.

The model is not meant to give exact dates, but is meant to demonstrate trends. So far the trends over the last 45 years have fit this model closely…
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PostPosted: 20:28 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Um no, there is a big demographic problem you see. The boomer generation may well be sitting pretty on their 500K houses. But if nobody can buy them and there are not as many people to buy them due to the boomer bulge then prices can only go one way.

Do people need to buy them? I think property will become a family heirloom, although with people typically having more than one child, and no de facto heir (the eldest for example) this wealth will be split, but then that's still two 250k houses.

Itchy wrote:
Yes some, but HK has the paradox of capitalism. The more capitalist they are the more socialist they become.

40-45% of the population live in rent controlled government housing.

It's a good job we've kept our housing stock and continued adding to it over the last 20-30 years then isn't it Neutral
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 20:43 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun Wukong wrote:
So far the trends over the last 45 years have fit this model closely…

Wow, 45? That's pretty conclusive.

How's the trend for the last 7,000 years looking?
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Sun Wukong
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PostPosted: 20:50 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
Sun Wukong wrote:
So far the trends over the last 45 years have fit this model closely…

Wow, 45? That's pretty conclusive.

How's the trend for the last 7,000 years looking?


Come on man, you're smarter than this…
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 21:01 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
How's the trend for the last 7,000 years looking?


Worse.

7000 years ago the Middle East had an area called the Fertile crescent. Where the land was arable. It's now not particularly arable.

Similarly the Nile basin was a lot bigger 7000 years ago than now.

Hell even in a short time frame of around 50 years places can change. The Aral Sea for instance. Lots of green bits around it in the 1950s. It too is now barren.

In fact it's playing out almost exactly like I predicted a year or so back:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/21/devastating-climate-change-could-see-one-million-migrants-a-year-entering-eu-by-2100
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PostPosted: 21:11 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Devastating climate change could lead to 1m migrants a year entering EU by 2100

So no change then Smile
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 22:05 - 24 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I seem to remember predicting a similar thing in a previous thread and being poo-poo'd for it by the wise and not so wise here. As I said previously, we will return to a form of feudalism where market towns become the centre of our diminishing universes...
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PostPosted: 01:03 - 25 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
I seem to remember predicting a similar thing in a previous thread and being poo-poo'd for it by the wise and not so wise here.

Your baww was to do with Brexit. I suppose you think this will only happen in the UK (I was talking about cities around the world)?
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 01:52 - 25 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun Wukong wrote:
mpd72 wrote:




It also assumes no other new materials or renewable methods of production will be invented.
If they fathom synthesising carbon fibre without the need for fossil fuel, then those sort of resources are fairly abundant.
Tide, wind and solar energy will always be present.
Farming and agriculture can be modernised and production increased.

Quote:
At the time of the 1972 model development, the authors did not claim that the model was either predictive or quantitative. Instead, the focus was simply to construct the model and observe the behavior of the simulation. After the "standard run" base case was created, the model was perturbed in various ways, and the variation between runs was considered. Model inputs matched historical data from 1900 to 1970, and matched the exponential rates of growth observed through most of the 20th century. The number of parameters was very small: Population, Food Supply, Arable Land, Non-renewable Natural Resources, Industrial Production, Pollution, etc.




The "technology will save us" falacy. If we invent something that will double the yield of agricultural lands, it just buys time.

Also, we are at peak food already, with shrinking agricultural lands, shrinking yields from those lands and another 4 billion mewling mouths to add to the fun.

Oh aye, the hoverboards will save us.

The model is not meant to give exact dates, but is meant to demonstrate trends. So far the trends over the last 45 years have fit this model closely…


“Vertical farming” man. Have you kids never heard of Chris Morris?

Allah, help us.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 01:55 - 25 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
Devastating climate change could lead to 1m migrants a year entering EU by 2100

So no change then Smile


Oh sure. We’ve just stopped inviting them in now the flood is pouring in naturally.
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Sun Wukong
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PostPosted: 10:00 - 25 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:

“Vertical farming” man. Have you kids never heard of Chris Morris?

Allah, help us.


A very interesting concept, and useful for low calorie easily spoiled leafy goods... not actual food.

The sign of true ignorance is over confidently asserting points you clearly do not understand.

Collect your Dunning-Kruger card on the way out the door, and please be sure to take an extra one for Borgy Laughing
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PostPosted: 11:07 - 25 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun Wukong wrote:
Collect your Dunning-Kruger card on the way out the door, and please be sure to take an extra one for Borgy Laughing

My duct-tape wallet is already full of them, thanks.


Itchy wrote:
Rogerborg wrote:
How's the trend for the last 7,000 years looking?

Worse.

Would you prefer to live then, or now?

Factor into your answer whether the you that exists now would likely be dead if you lived then.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 11:19 - 25 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun Wukong wrote:
mpd72 wrote:

“Vertical farming” man. Have you kids never heard of Chris Morris?

Allah, help us.


A very interesting concept, and useful for low calorie easily spoiled leafy goods... not actual food.

The sign of true ignorance is over confidently asserting points you clearly do not understand.

Collect your Dunning-Kruger card on the way out the door, and please be sure to take an extra one for Borgy Laughing


Yep, you've never heard of Chris Morris. Thought so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DchpBk6rfoc
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 12:45 - 25 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
Maybe not tomorrow but within a few hundred years it will all turn to ratshit.

I can't see a future beyond social collapse unless there is a breakthrough for basically free power for all. Energy will be priced out of reach of all but the wealthy.

No one will be able to buy their own home, it will be well out of the price of 90% of the population. Look at some of the 6 foot cages people live in in Hong Kong now and see the future.

The peasants in the cities will live in a concrete shit hole (they do now in my view but a worse one). The very lucky few will have reasonable jobs, the ones in service industries will be scrimping to survive. The ones out of work probably won't survive.

It won't be long before the country can't support 20/30/40 years of people living on state pensions, let alone the huge pension amounts they pay for the politicians/police/fire/teachers/civil servants etc. etc. It won't be able to support the NHS or good schooling because there won't be that many people in tax paying jobs. Work will either be done by machines or people on zero hour contracts.

It will be a modern form of slavery in everything but name. The rich will be able to hire/buy people to do whatever they want. When the choice is starvation or subservience, it's pretty obvious what will be chosen. Your posh apartment will come with 'furniture'. If you have seen a certain film, you will know what that is. Laughing

Doomsday scenario, possibly but I can't see life getting better for the masses from now on.

The sad thing is, like ThoughtControl, I was brought up in the unlimited nuclear energy, flying cars, not having to work, luxury future promised in the 60's. I actually believed it for a while when they were building all the nuclear plants at Hinkley, Sizewell etc.

I hope for the sake of my grandchildren and their offspring I am wrong.


Part of the problem is a lost generation due to the economic crash and mass immigration [even though many of them claim to support mass immigration]. This means there isn't enough economic power to pull the country through those problems. If you are playing a board game and you start at say -50k in student debt, -300k in house prices, it's hardly worth bothering to play the game. "paying off your huge debts and then die" is hardly a great aspiration you'll get young people to sign up to, and that is basically the one the Lib/Lab/Con have been offering. The "sweet spot" is get a job on 40k a year and work 20 hrs/week, i.e earn 20k/yr, and that's for your most qualified people.
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PostPosted: 17:25 - 25 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im-a-Ridah wrote:
Part of the problem is a lost generation due to the economic crash and mass immigration [even though many of them claim to support mass immigration]. This means there isn't enough economic power to pull the country through those problems. If you are playing a board game and you start at say -50k in student debt, -300k in house prices, it's hardly worth bothering to play the game. "paying off your huge debts and then die" is hardly a great aspiration you'll get young people to sign up to, and that is basically the one the Lib/Lab/Con have been offering. The "sweet spot" is get a job on 40k a year and work 20 hrs/week, i.e earn 20k/yr, and that's for your most qualified people.

I agree although speaking to people it does seem to be (somewhat) down to luck when you come of age, if it's in the middle of the worst recession since 19-dickety-two, or under Thatcher, or any of the other (totally deliberate) economic oopsies. It's another reason why you shouldn't let people behind computers gamble with the economy Rolling Eyes
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