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M.C |
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M.C Super Spammer
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Polarbear |
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Polarbear Super Spammer
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Posted: 02:44 - 24 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Maybe not tomorrow but within a few hundred years it will all turn to ratshit.
I can't see a future beyond social collapse unless there is a breakthrough for basically free power for all. Energy will be priced out of reach of all but the wealthy.
No one will be able to buy their own home, it will be well out of the price of 90% of the population. Look at some of the 6 foot cages people live in in Hong Kong now and see the future.
The peasants in the cities will live in a concrete shit hole (they do now in my view but a worse one). The very lucky few will have reasonable jobs, the ones in service industries will be scrimping to survive. The ones out of work probably won't survive.
It won't be long before the country can't support 20/30/40 years of people living on state pensions, let alone the huge pension amounts they pay for the politicians/police/fire/teachers/civil servants etc. etc. It won't be able to support the NHS or good schooling because there won't be that many people in tax paying jobs. Work will either be done by machines or people on zero hour contracts.
It will be a modern form of slavery in everything but name. The rich will be able to hire/buy people to do whatever they want. When the choice is starvation or subservience, it's pretty obvious what will be chosen. Your posh apartment will come with 'furniture'. If you have seen a certain film, you will know what that is.
Doomsday scenario, possibly but I can't see life getting better for the masses from now on.
The sad thing is, like ThoughtControl, I was brought up in the unlimited nuclear energy, flying cars, not having to work, luxury future promised in the 60's. I actually believed it for a while when they were building all the nuclear plants at Hinkley, Sizewell etc.
I hope for the sake of my grandchildren and their offspring I am wrong. ____________________ Triumph Trophy Launch Edition |
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Sun Wukong |
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Sun Wukong World Chat Champion
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
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Posted: 12:47 - 24 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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There's a school of thought that the USA de facto stopped the global use of DDT, which they knew to be quite safe, in order to keep the African population down.
Discuss-ting. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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Itchy |
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Itchy Super Spammer
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Itchy |
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Im-a-Ridah |
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Im-a-Ridah World Chat Champion
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- Super Spammer
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Sun Wukong |
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Sun Wukong World Chat Champion
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- Super Spammer
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Posted: 14:25 - 24 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Sun Wukong wrote: | Im-a-Ridah wrote: |
Universe is essentially unlimited and so growth is essentially unbounded
The capitalist model doesn't work very well though for really impressive stuff. |
Indeed, the invisible hand assume infinite resources.
Pigou ftw! |
It also assumes no other new materials or renewable methods of production will be invented.
If they fathom synthesising carbon fibre without the need for fossil fuel, then those sort of resources are fairly abundant.
Tide, wind and solar energy will always be present.
Farming and agriculture can be modernised and production increased.
Quote: | At the time of the 1972 model development, the authors did not claim that the model was either predictive or quantitative. Instead, the focus was simply to construct the model and observe the behavior of the simulation. After the "standard run" base case was created, the model was perturbed in various ways, and the variation between runs was considered. Model inputs matched historical data from 1900 to 1970, and matched the exponential rates of growth observed through most of the 20th century. The number of parameters was very small: Population, Food Supply, Arable Land, Non-renewable Natural Resources, Industrial Production, Pollution, etc. |
In 1972 we thought we'd all be on hoverboards by the year 2000 and the planet would have died under a flood of acid rain and burnt by a massive hole in the ozone layer.
Apparently, cutting down on aerosol CFC's cured all that and we still have no hoverboards. ____________________ TZR250 2MA road, TZR250 1KT road, TZR250 2MA race, TDR250, YZF-750R Boost colours.
Jaguar S Type 3.0 V6 Sport R, VW Transporter T5 GP LWB Shuttle 140ps DSG. |
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Sun Wukong |
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Sun Wukong World Chat Champion
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Posted: 17:20 - 24 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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mpd72 wrote: |
It also assumes no other new materials or renewable methods of production will be invented.
If they fathom synthesising carbon fibre without the need for fossil fuel, then those sort of resources are fairly abundant.
Tide, wind and solar energy will always be present.
Farming and agriculture can be modernised and production increased.
Quote: | At the time of the 1972 model development, the authors did not claim that the model was either predictive or quantitative. Instead, the focus was simply to construct the model and observe the behavior of the simulation. After the "standard run" base case was created, the model was perturbed in various ways, and the variation between runs was considered. Model inputs matched historical data from 1900 to 1970, and matched the exponential rates of growth observed through most of the 20th century. The number of parameters was very small: Population, Food Supply, Arable Land, Non-renewable Natural Resources, Industrial Production, Pollution, etc. |
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The "technology will save us" falacy. If we invent something that will double the yield of agricultural lands, it just buys time.
Also, we are at peak food already, with shrinking agricultural lands, shrinking yields from those lands and another 4 billion mewling mouths to add to the fun.
Oh aye, the hoverboards will save us.
The model is not meant to give exact dates, but is meant to demonstrate trends. So far the trends over the last 45 years have fit this model closely… ____________________ Top cat
"Hard times lead to hard people. Hard people lead to good times. Good times lead to weak people. Weak people lead to hard times." Smegballs
"Oh and STE balloons would be one of the nicer things we would receive at the office, the amount of dog turd in jiffy bags is not funny." Jsmith86 |
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M.C |
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M.C Super Spammer
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
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Sun Wukong |
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Sun Wukong World Chat Champion
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Itchy |
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M.C |
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M.C Super Spammer
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Posted: 21:11 - 24 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Devastating climate change could lead to 1m migrants a year entering EU by 2100
So no change then |
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Diggs |
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Diggs World Chat Champion
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Posted: 22:05 - 24 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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I seem to remember predicting a similar thing in a previous thread and being poo-poo'd for it by the wise and not so wise here. As I said previously, we will return to a form of feudalism where market towns become the centre of our diminishing universes... ____________________ Now - Speed Triple, old ratty GS550, GSXR750M
Gone (in order of ownership) - Raleigh Runabout, AP50, KH125, GP125, KH250, CBX550, Z400, CB750FII, 250LC, GS550, ZXR750H1, Guzzi Targa, GSX750F, KH250 x2, Bimota SB6R and counting... |
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M.C |
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M.C Super Spammer
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- Super Spammer
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Posted: 01:52 - 25 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Sun Wukong wrote: | mpd72 wrote: |
It also assumes no other new materials or renewable methods of production will be invented.
If they fathom synthesising carbon fibre without the need for fossil fuel, then those sort of resources are fairly abundant.
Tide, wind and solar energy will always be present.
Farming and agriculture can be modernised and production increased.
Quote: | At the time of the 1972 model development, the authors did not claim that the model was either predictive or quantitative. Instead, the focus was simply to construct the model and observe the behavior of the simulation. After the "standard run" base case was created, the model was perturbed in various ways, and the variation between runs was considered. Model inputs matched historical data from 1900 to 1970, and matched the exponential rates of growth observed through most of the 20th century. The number of parameters was very small: Population, Food Supply, Arable Land, Non-renewable Natural Resources, Industrial Production, Pollution, etc. |
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The "technology will save us" falacy. If we invent something that will double the yield of agricultural lands, it just buys time.
Also, we are at peak food already, with shrinking agricultural lands, shrinking yields from those lands and another 4 billion mewling mouths to add to the fun.
Oh aye, the hoverboards will save us.
The model is not meant to give exact dates, but is meant to demonstrate trends. So far the trends over the last 45 years have fit this model closely… |
“Vertical farming” man. Have you kids never heard of Chris Morris?
Allah, help us. ____________________ TZR250 2MA road, TZR250 1KT road, TZR250 2MA race, TDR250, YZF-750R Boost colours.
Jaguar S Type 3.0 V6 Sport R, VW Transporter T5 GP LWB Shuttle 140ps DSG. |
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- Super Spammer
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Sun Wukong |
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Sun Wukong World Chat Champion
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Karma :
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Posted: 11:07 - 25 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Sun Wukong wrote: | Collect your Dunning-Kruger card on the way out the door, and please be sure to take an extra one for Borgy |
My duct-tape wallet is already full of them, thanks.
Itchy wrote: | Rogerborg wrote: | How's the trend for the last 7,000 years looking? |
Worse. |
Would you prefer to live then, or now?
Factor into your answer whether the you that exists now would likely be dead if you lived then. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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Im-a-Ridah |
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Im-a-Ridah World Chat Champion
Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Karma :
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Posted: 12:45 - 25 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Polarbear wrote: | Maybe not tomorrow but within a few hundred years it will all turn to ratshit.
I can't see a future beyond social collapse unless there is a breakthrough for basically free power for all. Energy will be priced out of reach of all but the wealthy.
No one will be able to buy their own home, it will be well out of the price of 90% of the population. Look at some of the 6 foot cages people live in in Hong Kong now and see the future.
The peasants in the cities will live in a concrete shit hole (they do now in my view but a worse one). The very lucky few will have reasonable jobs, the ones in service industries will be scrimping to survive. The ones out of work probably won't survive.
It won't be long before the country can't support 20/30/40 years of people living on state pensions, let alone the huge pension amounts they pay for the politicians/police/fire/teachers/civil servants etc. etc. It won't be able to support the NHS or good schooling because there won't be that many people in tax paying jobs. Work will either be done by machines or people on zero hour contracts.
It will be a modern form of slavery in everything but name. The rich will be able to hire/buy people to do whatever they want. When the choice is starvation or subservience, it's pretty obvious what will be chosen. Your posh apartment will come with 'furniture'. If you have seen a certain film, you will know what that is.
Doomsday scenario, possibly but I can't see life getting better for the masses from now on.
The sad thing is, like ThoughtControl, I was brought up in the unlimited nuclear energy, flying cars, not having to work, luxury future promised in the 60's. I actually believed it for a while when they were building all the nuclear plants at Hinkley, Sizewell etc.
I hope for the sake of my grandchildren and their offspring I am wrong. |
Part of the problem is a lost generation due to the economic crash and mass immigration [even though many of them claim to support mass immigration]. This means there isn't enough economic power to pull the country through those problems. If you are playing a board game and you start at say -50k in student debt, -300k in house prices, it's hardly worth bothering to play the game. "paying off your huge debts and then die" is hardly a great aspiration you'll get young people to sign up to, and that is basically the one the Lib/Lab/Con have been offering. The "sweet spot" is get a job on 40k a year and work 20 hrs/week, i.e earn 20k/yr, and that's for your most qualified people. |
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M.C |
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M.C Super Spammer
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 6 years, 117 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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