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| Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg
nimbA
Joined: 26 Oct 2010
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 Posted: 09:05 - 03 Nov 2017  Post subject: |
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Yes, yes, kill the humans, end their culture, I'm onboard with that part.
Obama's NASA.
It'll be your turn to scoff at the truths that Trump's NASA and EPA will unearth soon.
| Lord Percy wrote: | | Quote: | Here, the models [...] the model projections. [...] models [...] models [...] models |
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Oh, look, a field of cows.
Hey, that cow is pointing north.
Therefore, all cows can be used as compasses.
| chickenstrip wrote: | a) not like Rogerborg will have any effect on the issue. |
Inertia is my religion. 
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| Lord Percy |
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Lord Percy
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| Sun Wukong |
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Sun Wukong
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Posted: 09:32 - 03 Nov 2017  Post subject: |
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I like to see what we're up against 
It's not going to be fixed easily, clearly.
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"Hard times lead to hard people. Hard people lead to good times. Good times lead to weak people. Weak people lead to hard times." Smegballs
"Oh and STE balloons would be one of the nicer things we would receive at the office, the amount of dog turd in jiffy bags is not funny." Jsmith86 |
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| Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg
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| Sun Wukong |
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Sun Wukong
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| Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg
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| Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg
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| Posted: 16:36 - 06 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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https://i.imgur.com/ZrotNe9.png?1
Shrieks Al Beeb, with a little help from Tense Adams, given that they backtrack to 'very likely' will be.
Death, doom, panic, worst ever, extinction, inexorable rising trend, hotter and hotter and hotter, woe, woe unto us.
| Al Beeb wrote: | The analysis suggests that 2017 is likely to come in 0.47C warmer than the 1981-2010 average.
This is slightly down on 2016 when the El Niño weather phenomenon saw temperatures that were 0.56C above the average. |
That, right there, is why this whole 'debate' is mirthsome, as the language has already been decided, and the playing field tilted, polished and oiled.
When the planet warms, that's down to climate change.
When the planet cools, it's just weather.
The headline should be "Planet cools an unprecedented 0.09 degrees in just one year, climate alarmists perform desperate damage control".
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Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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| Lord Percy |
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Lord Percy
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| Sun Wukong |
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Sun Wukong
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| Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg
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| Posted: 11:42 - 07 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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| Lord Percy wrote: | Clearly still using hysterical news sources |
Al Beeb? Sure, they're True Believer alarmists, which can be seen by them producing an article that shriekingly asserts the opposite of the one fact contained in it, which is that the planet cooled his year.
I miss your point. Are you in favour of hysterical alarmism, or in favour of challenging it? 
| Lord Percy wrote: | A colder year does not mean the trend stops. Indeed it really hasn't stopped at all. |
If this the same definition of reality that depends on "correcting" recent temperature measurements up while "correcting" historic ones down in order to produce the "correct" trend?
Do you honestly not see the problem with making a firm, absolute statement about reality that appears to be based on nothing more than belief that there must, there must, be some model out there that can predict the future?
OK, you've failed the two decades prediction challenge, that's clear enough.
So here's an easier one. Can you find a model that correctly predicted the amount of this year's drop? Should be easy enough, right? I mean, if we can really predict reality a hundred years ahead, it's first necessary to predict one year.
So, astonish and enlighten me: where will I find a record of that prediction? One must exist, there are enough climaticians out there that one of them must have got it right just through sheer dumb luck accurate modelling.
Then for bonus wokeness: what does that model predict the global temperature will be in 2018?
We can come back to this in a year or so and see how reality played out.
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GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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| asta1 |
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asta1
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Posted: 16:16 - 07 Nov 2017  Post subject: |
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| Rogerborg wrote: |
So here's an easier one. Can you find a model that correctly predicted the amount of this year's drop? Should be easy enough, right? I mean, if we can really predict reality a hundred years ahead, it's first necessary to predict one year.
So, astonish and enlighten me: where will I find a record of that prediction? One must exist, there are enough climaticians out there that one of them must have got it right just through sheer dumb luck accurate modelling.
Then for bonus wokeness: what does that model predict the global temperature will be in 2018?
We can come back to this in a year or so and see how reality played out. |
In Fairness Rog, the effects of the El Nino/ El Nina cycle are fairly well documented:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-much-el-nino-affect-global-temperature
Look at the graph, general trend is NASA data 1951-2010, so a fair bit more than just 'Obama's NASA'.
Shows a general upwards variation of approx. 0.8 degrees centigrade over the period. Variation for El Nino: +/- 0.15 degrees for the complete cycle in extreme instances and maybe +/-0.1 degrees on average. It does appear to support the results seen for the 2016-2017 El Nino variations of 0.09 degrees centigrade right?
A further point on 'corrections'. On the face of it, these do seem suspect, just 'correct' the results to get the expected trend right? However, they are sometimes valid for the data or model required.
For example, lots of the climate models of the 90s and 00s had corrections for sulfate aerosols. These are effectively 'smog' particles produced from SO2 and which absorb 1-2 W/m2 of radiant energy cause a cooling effect on Earth. Sounds fine right? Except the main causes of the particles are volcanic eruptions and human sources. They are short lived and crucially, decreasing globally due to clean air initiatives etc. Therefore, if you don't 'correct' for them, you get models which underestimate future warming and which are wildly out due to taking past volcanic events into consideration. This has been proven to effect global temps. For instance look again at the graph in my link above, specifically 1992. Effects of volcanic activity and El Nino can be seen very clearly and the net effect of both acting together (in this case cancelling each other out.
Oh, and bonus points for 2018: BASED EXCLUSIVELY ON EL NINO, 2018 should show similar or marginally lower temps than 2017, based on El Nino cycles generally acting over at least a few years and the current one increasing through 2014 and 2015 before peaking in 2016.
Bonus prediction for even more points, 2020 or 2021 will be the next hottest year on record, based on data not adjusted to mitigate El Nino effects.
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| chickenstrip |
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chickenstrip
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Posted: 16:47 - 07 Nov 2017  Post subject: |
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Y'all know what we need? We need a massive reduction in the human population. Funnily enough, one relatively quick and easy way to achieve this would be to increase global warming as much as we possibly can, with all the associated disasters that would bring - in short, we're not really trying hard enough to cause global warming if we really want to save the human species
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THERE'S MILLIONS OF CHICKENSTRIPS OUT THERE! |
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| Kawasaki Jimbo |
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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| Posted: 19:47 - 07 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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Climate oscillations (the ones we've detected). It's complicated.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_oscillation
We'd be quite right to combat pollution where possible, but it could be said that activities which return carbon back to the system are just life-forms doing what life-forms do; increasing the entropy of the system. Gaia wants it. |
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| Itchy |
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Itchy
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| Sun Wukong |
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Sun Wukong
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| Sun Wukong |
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Sun Wukong
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| Posted: 09:33 - 15 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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Yeh, can't argue with any of that, sadly.
https://wehaveconcerns.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/end-is-near.jpg
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"Hard times lead to hard people. Hard people lead to good times. Good times lead to weak people. Weak people lead to hard times." Smegballs
"Oh and STE balloons would be one of the nicer things we would receive at the office, the amount of dog turd in jiffy bags is not funny." Jsmith86 |
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Rogerborg
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| Falco |
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Falco
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| Posted: 16:17 - 15 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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  That isn't what it says at all. Tut tut Roger. 1 mark for memeing, 2 marks for actual technological solution. 3/10. No mention of tiny scale its currently on and the huge challenges to scaling and deployment.
We have a plethora of technology that could *if magically scaled and deployed globally* solve these problems. Add this one to the pile and call me when any actual political will develops to do much about it (outside of china I mean.....  )
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Itchy
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| Posted: 16:23 - 15 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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Can't detect sarcasm or not.
It's merely that some solutions actually make the problem worse.
It's like hybrid cars. Ah yes better for the environment says the headline. Except we don't consider the manufacturing of them and losses in transmitting electricity from the coal power plants. Then you're lugging around a ton of batteries that need replacement every 10,000 miles.
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Rogerborg
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Sun Wukong
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| Kawasaki Jimbo |
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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Falco
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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| asta1 |
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asta1
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| Posted: 04:36 - 16 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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| Kawasaki Jimbo wrote: | [
Not going to happen. 100 years of development, the most remarkable century of innovation and still no solution. It's a dead end. |
Really? I'm just thinking about the last 10 years and there's been massive improvements. We're not there yet, granted, but there is still huge progress.
Take phones as an example. '80's phone had a battery the size of a brick. They provided sufficient power for a couple of hours call time and to power a two line black and green screen.
Fast forwards to the 90's. A phone battery is the size of a pack of cards, same functionality or better. 00's, battery even smaller, offers 3x the call time and has enough juice to start thinking about colour screens, 3G, internet, music. 2010's, an iphone lasts all day and has more processing power than an early 00's laptop. Full internet use, touch screen, games, ipod etc.
It's the same with everything. I remember with model helicopters (yes, I'm a nerd) in the late 00's when electric started beating glow fuel and petrol for performance. Why? Partly brushless motors sure, but the newfangled LiPo batteries started costing reasonable money, giving you 10minute flight times and the ability to pull stuff off that no glow fuel bird could do.
Cars will be the same. It'll take more time, but if we can continue improving the tech as we are, we're only talking another 30 years before a £500 battery will do 500miles and charge in 30mins. At that point, you have to ask what petrol is really providing to the average commuter...
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 6 years, 156 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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