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adam277
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PostPosted: 15:08 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Autonomous cars Reply with quote

Dunno if this has been mentioned yet but do you think bikes will still be about in 30 years time with all these autonomous vehicles?

They are making a huge push for autonomous cars and trucks. The main problem at the moment and imo forever will be human error. As long as you have 1 human driving accidents will occur. The only way to resolve this seems to stop people driving.
If anyone has seen Irobot that I am imagining something like that.

How do you guys think this will hit us once this things become mainstream?
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tentativebike...
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PostPosted: 15:21 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think autonomous cars will actually become main stream. The government will change at some point and ban them, they're the hot thing now for economy reasons but as soon as people start dying they'll be "a mode of transport that should not be open to the public"
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Teflon-Mike
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PostPosted: 16:00 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Re: Autonomous cars Reply with quote

adam277 wrote:
Dunno if this has been mentioned yet but do you think bikes will still be about in 30 years time with all these autonomous vehicles?

I'll be 77 and having to ask my GP to write me a letter to accompany my Driving licence renewal.
And I am still younger than the demographic of the average full-bike-licence holder.....
I really doubt that between tablet-organizers and incontinence pants, I or very many other full-licence holders that haven't had to jump through 3DL hoops t get it, will really be all too worried about it.
The very very few that remain, who will have had to jump through 3DL hoops, and suffer emission zone restrictions and gawd knows what else trying to squeeze them off the road, will either suck it up, or give it up...
If the baloon hasn't gone up, and we are all riding survival specials in Hazmat suits!
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Johnnythefox
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PostPosted: 16:04 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

step out in front of one and what does it do? hence they will be unusable wherever there are pedestrians...
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 16:06 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Think of all that lovely revenue the government will lose from fines and bribes if they ban people driving.

Anyway, to my way of thinking cars have to be people controlled or fully autonomous. You can't have this half way house 'assisted' crap or you are going to have some silly bint doing her make up while going at 70 down the motorway thinking everything is hunky dory milliseconds before hitting a 10 car pileup.

And what is the difference going to be with autonomous and a decent public transport (bus/taxi/tram) system because you can bet there will be charges by the mile when that comes in.

Oh, and there will be no bikes.
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adam277
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PostPosted: 16:35 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Johnnythefox wrote:
step out in front of one and what does it do? hence they will be unusable wherever there are pedestrians...


Actually the system can cope with that quite well at the moment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuhbqcMzOaw
Also the more cars they put on the road the more data they get back to improve it. This is still in its infancy but its still incredibly advanced and impressive.
The government is going out of its way to invest in this.


Quote:
If the baloon hasn't gone up, and we are all riding survival specials in Hazmat suits!


No doubt that will happen within the next 30 years with Trump as president Razz guess I shouldnt worry.
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Freddyfruitba...
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PostPosted: 16:54 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, Clarkson has just annonunced that a driverless car which he was in almost killed him twice the other day.
So that's that, then.
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Teflon-Mike
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PostPosted: 17:02 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Freddyfruitbat wrote:
Well, Clarkson has just annonunced that a driverless car which he was in almost killed him twice [/url] the other day.
So that's that, then.

After buying a house on the IoM TT course, (To avoid UK Tax!) then suggesting that there ought to be a revision to the gun-control laws to allow an open season on Bikers....

The drone car's programmer obviously needs to sort a few bugs in the system... facial recognition needed perhaps?
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TheSmiler
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PostPosted: 17:17 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

It will eventually turn into similar as I-robot with the assisted driving. What is interesting is with these autonomous vehicles apparently they are going to have proximity sensors get too close and they will jam on the breaks. Personally I can see it being the end of filtering, which is a big plus in many car drivers books.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 17:17 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the truly autonamous car is not going to be the mainstream solution. Far too many variables on UK roads.

If I was in charge, I'd make lane 3 a designated "road train" lane for autonamous vehicles on selected motorways. Self-driven vehicles aren't allowed to use it. On the approach to junctions, there would be a "hazard line" system where you aren't allowed to change lane or overtake in a similar way to French toll roads to facilitate vehicles joining and leaving the train.

What they do need to sort out, and sort out soon, is a legal framework for financial liability in the case of accidents. Does it lie with the owner of the car who caused the accident, the manufacturer, the software designer, the road maintainer?
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Freddyfruitba...
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PostPosted: 17:43 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Teflon-Mike wrote:
The drone car's programmer obviously needs to sort a few bugs in the system... facial recognition needed perhaps?

Maybe it does already have facial rec, and that's why Clarkson nearly had two 'accidents'...
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ThatDippyTwat
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PostPosted: 17:59 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Re: Autonomous cars Reply with quote

Teflon-Mike wrote:
I'll be 77 and having to ask my GP to write me a letter to accompany my Driving licence renewal.

Given your spewing of "back in my day" postings, I thought you were there or thereabouts already.

As for the OP - I suspect the main market for autonomous vehicles will be taxi's, pool cars etc. I can't see that kind of tech coming down in price as to be affordable. Given the slowing of new ways to compute stuff faster, saying buh-bye to "Moores law" and there are limits to what ASIC's can do, just the computing power alone is going to cost as much as an average used car, not to mention the current astronomical cost of things such as LIDAR etc.
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adam277
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PostPosted: 18:59 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Re: Autonomous cars Reply with quote

ThatDippyTwat wrote:
Teflon-Mike wrote:
I'll be 77 and having to ask my GP to write me a letter to accompany my Driving licence renewal.

Given your spewing of "back in my day" postings, I thought you were there or thereabouts already.

As for the OP - I suspect the main market for autonomous vehicles will be taxi's, pool cars etc. I can't see that kind of tech coming down in price as to be affordable. Given the slowing of new ways to compute stuff faster, saying buh-bye to "Moores law" and there are limits to what ASIC's can do, just the computing power alone is going to cost as much as an average used car, not to mention the current astronomical cost of things such as LIDAR etc.


True true. Also the AJSDJ is a limiting factor.
The JKLDI will warp due to the processing speeds
Not to mention the KLASOIIASDJASDJAWIEAWJDAHWDJAWELKAWLDWAJD which will self destruct when intergreated into the AJDJWAJDAWJ
And don't get me started on the flux capacitor!

Seriously though. Watch the video its all there. The only limiting factor is the limited amount of data. More cars = more data. The way I see it is it is a database that will be continuing filled up every-time someone starts their engine.
Your post over complicates it.
But you sound like you know what your talking about though. Its a engineers job to make it as simple as possible and imo it all comes down to pattern recognition which computers are great at. They just need the database to work off which will come when more people start using them. Far as im aware LIDAR doesnt even work in fog most of these cars use radar.
The technology is here now even if it is currently expensive and somewhat sluggish. It's currently in playstation 1 stage how long before it gets to playstation 4 stage Razz
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Teflon-Mike
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PostPosted: 19:54 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Re: Autonomous cars Reply with quote

It' astounding how much technology needs to be chucked at the 'problem' of re-inventing the 'tram' really....
The only difference is that you get a personal trolly car!

As far as the technology goes, interesting as it may be.... look at Sat-Nav!

Thirty years worth of militery grade rocket science aero-space development and testing, an infrastructure of satellites stuck in the sky to support it... all so that a drone driver stops having to think for themselves and can drive off the end of a pier, or into a river, or the wrong way up a motorway.. and have 'something' to blame but their own stupidity!

Notion of an even greater level of devolved daftness and foul-up potential put into every vehicle on the roads, boggles!

Remember the old addage; to err is human, to really foul things up you need a computer!

adam277 wrote:
Its a engineers job to make it as simple as possible


It is the engineers job to employ technology in order to solve a problem.... so first identify 'the problem'....

Here, I'll do it for you. PEOPLE, and I stress that part... cant drive, or cant be bothered to drive or want the traffic lights to always be on green for them....

Obviouse solution, is pretty simple DRIVER EDUCATION! Teach them to drive properly in the first place! Then maintain that standard with proper traffic regulation. A computer algorithm can not solve all the problems here, no matter how much processes power or big a data-base you chuck at it... traffic lights still have to be red for some and green for others and switch betwixt the two.

You can please some of the people some of the time, but never all of the people all of the time...

Whatever 'The System', at best it will only ever please some of the people some of the time, and every body will have to live with the compromise.

So, the art of engineering; WHAT is the best compromise?

Remember, Necessity is the Mother of Invention!
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Dave70
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PostPosted: 21:27 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Teflon-Mike wrote:
[After buying a house on the IoM TT course


Tut Tut It was actually in the south of the island (Langness peninsula), which is relatively quite far from the TT course. You'd need a passport to travel that far by Manx standards. Laughing

As for driverless vehicles being on the roads. This is something that I'm not at all comfortable with tbh. I still think there needs to be a lot more testing done (away from the public) before such vehicles should made available. Even then I'm not too comfortable with the idea. Maybe I'm just getting old though.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 21:42 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Autonomous cars will become mainstream sooner or later.

The tech exists already.

Check out CCTV cameras

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE1kA0Jy0Xg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVFTm5R8LLM

Real time identification and tracking. Bad PRC? Bad Japan? It's something that was announced on the London tube quite a long time ago.

The problem is there is a paradox at the heart of it.


If such tech does become mainstream then people will have very few places to go and to be.
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Johnnythefox
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PostPosted: 21:54 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="adam277"]
Johnnythefox wrote:
step out in front of one and what does it do? hence they will be unusable wherever there are pedestrians...


Actually the system can cope with that quite well at the moment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuhbqcMzOaw
Also the more cars they put on the road the more data they get back to improve it. This is still in its infancy but its still incredibly advanced and impressive.
The government is going out of its way to invest in this.



I meant, pedestrians will learn to cross roads knowing the approaching car will stop.
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 22:12 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is obviously the moral dilemma. Who to blame when something goes wrong. Are we going to blame the car manufacturer, the passenger behind the wheel, the owner of the automobile?
That is the actual reason why autonomous driving will never be a thing. Accident avoidence systems will be a part of the automotive future, but I very doubt the cars are going to drive themselves on daily bases. Something that's already here and works, to a certain extent. Many car manufaturers put these avoidence systems into their top tier cars and just like the airbags and ABS once being only for the best paying customers, these systems will make their way into the more afordable models.

Also, what about hackers? The Tesla cars have constant internet connection and everything is being controled by the on board computer. How hard could it be to hack into it and make the car make a mistake? Thinking

A history lesson;
Self driving automobiles were here long before Musk even finished the primary school. In 1995 a Mercedes-Benz w140 went from Munich to Copenhagen and back, no body died. Everything was controlled by a computer and all the commands were based on a real-time evaluation of image sequences caught by four cameras. While on the Autobahn, the w140 did 115 mph, overtaking other slower going vehicles.

My personal opinion;
I don't even like the cruise control, it always makes me feel like I'm not paying enough attention to what I'm doing, driving. I always have to have my foot on the throttle, to feel safe in a car. Thinking
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Last edited by RhynoCZ on 23:06 - 19 Nov 2017; edited 1 time in total
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 22:40 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

RhynoCZ wrote:
There is obviously the moral dilemma. Who to blame when something goes wrong. Are we going to blame the car manufacturer, the passenger behind the wheel, the owner of the automobile?



There was an article on slashdot a few months ago about this. The car manufacturers would be the ones who would have to take responsibility and or indemnify the users of the self driving cars. Some of them even said this would have to be the case.


There is a worse moral dilemma. It's called the trolley problem.

In a nutshell a collision is imminent. Do you swerve towards the crowd or the old man to your left. You have to hit one of them.

How are the computers in the cars going to make this choice?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avh7ez858xM
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Suntan Sid
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PostPosted: 23:50 - 19 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

There was a "Horizon" documentary about this in June.
The main conclusion was, the current technology is simply not good enough and will not be for some time!
Following on from that, the other conclusion was if, (and it was a very big IF), fully autonomous cars do ever make it onto the roads they will be restricted to very specific areas, namely large cities, where specific infrastructure will have been put in place to assist the vehicles.
If like me you live out in the sticks you're never, ever, going to see one.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 00:02 - 20 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Suntan Sid wrote:
l be restricted to very specific areas, namely large cities, where specific infrastructure will have been put in place to assist the vehicles.



Vehicles restricted to very specific areas, large cities and infrastructure you say?
Thinking

https://railway-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Driverless-BOMBARDIER-INNOVIA-Metro-300-train.jpg
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 00:11 - 20 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Suntan Sid wrote:
... the current technology is simply not good enough and will not be for some time!

Did you read my post? The bit about the 1995 Merc? Just for the fun of it, look at what were computers like then vs now. Razz
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Suntan Sid
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PostPosted: 00:27 - 20 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm merely reporting what was said in the documentary.
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ThatDippyTwat
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PostPosted: 07:17 - 20 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

RhynoCZ wrote:
Suntan Sid wrote:
... the current technology is simply not good enough and will not be for some time!
Did you read my post?


Did you read the bit about any of the "Autopilot" crashes recently?

If people are going to give up control, it has to be perfect, or damn near, as people are fickle things.
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PostPosted: 09:01 - 20 Nov 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

There will be really simple ways to troll these automatic cars and make them misbehave. Someone will figure out that
putting a sticker over a sensor or camera or a similarly simple and low tech method will scupper these cars. Then they
will steal the wheels and rob the daydreaming occupants.
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