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Remainers. Euro superstate: in or out?

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ScaredyCat
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PostPosted: 20:59 - 14 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:

Rejecting a deal still means hard brexit. It's not the choice of the UK Parliament anymore.

The EU have said you're welcome back into the fold, but must join Euro, no rebate, full Schengen integration.

Which pretty means hard brexit is the ONLY brexit.


A50 is reversible*, without going hand in cap to the EU. That's the other option. Well, that and perpetual trigger, untrigger..

*prior to 29 March 2019 - after that date the only way to not-brexit is to beg and basically take it up the pooper.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 21:02 - 14 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

jjdugen wrote:
Someone explain, please.
We are a net contributor to the EU budget, importing more than we export as well as the membership fees. But we are borrowing billons to prop up the economy.


Yes.

jjdugen wrote:
So.... We are putting our grandchildren in debt to stay in the EU..... Please tell me this has some element of sense in it.......


This is a yes and no answer.

When a nation has a trade deficit then it either increases productivity/GDP to make up for the deficit for a short period this isn't really a problem as trade is supposed to make both parties wealthier. If the nation in question does not fill in the trade deficit then the problems start to begin. The nation with the deficit has their economy shrunk to pay for the deficit. This can be lower GDP or it can be lower ownership of the family silverware to use a metaphor.

The UK has had a trade deficit since 1967.

So what has happened is to keep the UK economy afloat the UK has been selling pretty much everything to overseas investors. Previously the UK could sell bonds. They still can. The problem is the UK has a terrible reputation on inflating the bonds away. As above the UK inflated away the debt to the USA in WW1. So the USA wanted gold for weapons in the early stages of WW2.

The hot cash coming in allows the UK to spend it.

So no the children aren't being put into debt they are losing their nation.

The nation is being sold off piece by piece. Effectively it's very much like selling your home and then renting it back from the person who bought your home.

All of those overseas investors aren't doing it for fun. They are doing it to extract profit this means stuff costs more and much like paying rent hinders you from buying you own the effect is similar.

The problem is the UK is rapidly running out of things to sell. Think of a British institution and it's probably foreign owned.

The second problem is that if the UK government decides to 'renationalise' stuff well they'll go Venezuela. Yet if they don't keep selling the silverware then well living standards will plummet and no government wants that on their watch. 2008 was bad at 8%? Stop borrowing and overnight GDP will shrink a good 14%


The 3rd problem is that the investors are actually in a pickle. If they stop buying assets and propping up the UK then they lose their shirts too. So they too have to keep buying and propping.


If they stop propping, if the sales stop then well living standards will fall massively.
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jjdugen
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PostPosted: 21:25 - 14 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for that lucid explanation Itchy. BTW, I knew the answer, but it would seem a great number of people chose to ignore this cold, hard fact.
Now, the genius will be in finding a solution. Economies usually reset through war or revolution, which do you want?
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 23:00 - 14 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

ScaredyCat wrote:
A50 is reversible*

Sure. I mean, it doesn't say that, but a chap who might have been in the room when someone else was writing it, and who shrieked before the referendum that the (unwritten) intent was that it would be totallly irrevocable, is now saying that the (unwritten) intent is that it's unilaterallly revocable any time we like.

That reminds me, weren't you making some funny point about the UK sticking to our word?
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ScaredyCat
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PostPosted: 23:51 - 14 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
That reminds me, weren't you making some funny point about the UK sticking to our word?


You should have established by now that I'm of the opinion that politicians can't be trusted. They lie for a living through deliberate omission or by "interpreting" figures to suit them. If you reach the top of the ladder to become PM, then doubly so.
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Val
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PostPosted: 01:30 - 15 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

jjdugen wrote:
Someone explain, please.
We are a net contributor to the EU budget, importing more than we export as well as the membership fees. But we are borrowing billons to prop up the economy. So.... We are putting our grandchildren in debt to stay in the EU..... Please tell me this has some element of sense in it.......


It is if you look at the facts. First let's make the big difference from the money spent by the UK state and the money circulating in the UK private business.

And about UK borrowing billions - true, but that is not to help the economy - the money from the state purse go mostly in the pockets of the state bureaucrats and their friends nothing to do with "saving" the economy.

Your picture is wrong and distorted because you have ommited, taxes that are received and any private profits. FYI UK is not North Korea. Means the private money are the most important part of the economy. They create jobs, profits and GDP.

1. How much money UK spends for EU - let say £1 pound in fee (spent by the UK state).
2. How much the UK is profiting from that? For each pound spend in fee UK gets back £10 pounds private, tax and other profits.

The Private Business Say wrote:
The CBI estimates that the net benefit of EU membership is worth 4-5% of GDP to the UK, or £62bn-£78bn per year.


So actually you by leaving the EU are wrecking the economy and losing the profits which otherwise would have been realised by the membership of the biggest free market in the world.

UK’s ‘net contribution’ to EU is about £8.6 billion per year.

Only EU citizen's like me we pay £12 billion net tax per year after subtracting any benefits and cost for the UK.

So the idea that somehow UK loses by the EU membership is pure bullshit.

The reality is the UK already is losing billions despite not left yet.

Glad you have mentioned UK state borrowing - due to Brexit antics interest on the UK state borrowing ALREADY have risen with £7.5 billion PER year.

Good luck Thumbs Up
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Last edited by Val on 01:53 - 15 Dec 2017; edited 1 time in total
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 01:53 - 15 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or we could just be "wrecking" the existing economy with all its failings and shackles to an "ever-closer union." Embrace change.
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Val
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PostPosted: 01:57 - 15 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Or we could just be "wrecking" the existing economy with all its failings and shackles to an "ever-closer union." Embrace change.


Maybe. Maybe the pigs can fly. I read somewhere few days ago some prominent leaver saying the UK will need 100 years and than everything will be much better.

Maybe.

But the facts show in the next 20 years it will get much worst because of Brexit.

I am glad you guys plan for so long in the future Laughing

Me - I am simple man can't plan for more than 5 years ahead...
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M.C
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PostPosted: 08:50 - 15 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
I am simple man can't plan for more than 5 years ahead...

Can you stick to those plans?
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 11:36 - 15 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fewer immigrants and leaving the EU.

Libs going to be mad Laughing

Remoaner heroes are Tony Bliar who is famous for blowing up lots of brown people (far more than Tommy Robbinsons or Paul Golding ever harmed), his accomplice Peter Mandleperson, Nick Clegg who tripled tuition fees while living a lavish lifestyle on the taxpayer, homo shaming Tim Faggon, and Ken Clarke formerly of the Bilderberg group.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:38 - 15 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
jjdugen wrote:
Someone explain, please.
We are a net contributor to the EU budget, importing more than we export as well as the membership fees. But we are borrowing billons to prop up the economy. So.... We are putting our grandchildren in debt to stay in the EU..... Please tell me this has some element of sense in it.......


It is if you look at the facts. First let's make the big difference from the money spent by the UK state and the money circulating in the UK private business.

And about UK borrowing billions - true, but that is not to help the economy - the money from the state purse go mostly in the pockets of the state bureaucrats and their friends nothing to do with "saving" the economy.

Your picture is wrong and distorted because you have ommited, taxes that are received and any private profits. FYI UK is not North Korea. Means the private money are the most important part of the economy. They create jobs, profits and GDP.

1. How much money UK spends for EU - let say £1 pound in fee (spent by the UK state).
2. How much the UK is profiting from that? For each pound spend in fee UK gets back £10 pounds private, tax and other profits.

The Private Business Say wrote:
The CBI estimates that the net benefit of EU membership is worth 4-5% of GDP to the UK, or £62bn-£78bn per year.


So actually you by leaving the EU are wrecking the economy and losing the profits which otherwise would have been realised by the membership of the biggest free market in the world.

UK’s ‘net contribution’ to EU is about £8.6 billion per year.

Only EU citizen's like me we pay £12 billion net tax per year after subtracting any benefits and cost for the UK.

So the idea that somehow UK loses by the EU membership is pure bullshit.

The reality is the UK already is losing billions despite not left yet.

Glad you have mentioned UK state borrowing - due to Brexit antics interest on the UK state borrowing ALREADY have risen with £7.5 billion PER year.

Good luck Thumbs Up


You're conflating the Eu with the Single market, Eu membership does not assist in economic growth, the SM does.

So as per Norway, we would just be paying the gross fee, and thus, not the net 10 billion.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 17:39 - 15 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

So when is China joining the EU?

https://www.bilaterals.org/IMG/jpg/-540.jpg
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:51 - 15 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^ Neutral

Expansionism knows no bounds. Isn't Turkey at least still under consideration for EU membership, however seriously?
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 18:39 - 15 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
^^ Neutral

Expansionism knows no bounds. Isn't Turkey at least still under consideration for EU membership, however seriously?


Yes. And EFTA is basically a waiting area for countries where the elites want to join but the people don't.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 18:52 - 15 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im-a-Ridah wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:
^^ Neutral

Expansionism knows no bounds. Isn't Turkey at least still under consideration for EU membership, however seriously?


Yes. And EFTA is basically a waiting area for countries where the elites want to join but the people don't.


Is it bollocks, EFTA is the alternative to the Eu with it's own trade deals in place.

With an independent court in place that can be used against the ECJ
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ScaredyCat
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PostPosted: 11:50 - 16 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Juncker wrote:
“Turkey has been moving away from the European Union in leaps and bounds. That rules out EU membership for Turkey in the foreseeable future.”

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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 12:10 - 16 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mutti also poo-poos the idea of Turkey before Christmas.

Amazing the taqiya that flows during election season.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 12:14 - 16 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Turkey is joining the Eurasian Economic Union in 2018.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:31 - 16 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

ScaredyCat wrote:
Juncker wrote:
“Turkey has been moving away from the European Union in leaps and bounds. That rules out EU membership for Turkey in the foreseeable future.”


I still can't understand why they were ever considered for membership in the first place. They've come to their senses on that one then.
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 12:41 - 16 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im-a-Ridah wrote:
So when is China joining the EU?

Not a European country.

Itchy wrote:
Turkey

Not fufiling the Copenhagen criteria.
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 12:47 - 16 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
But we're still throwing EU money at it for some bizarre reason.


To keep them happy, so the Turks don't flood Europe. And yes, it is Germans fault, as always. Wink
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:47 - 16 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

RhynoCZ wrote:


Itchy wrote:
Turkey

Not a European country.
Not fufilling the Copenhagen criteria.


FTFY.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:49 - 16 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

RhynoCZ wrote:
mpd72 wrote:
But we're still throwing EU money at it for some bizarre reason.


To keep them happy, so the Turks don't flood Europe. And yes, it is Germans fault, as always. Wink


Have they not heard of hard borders?

Thinking
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