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National Grid tottering on the edge

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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 11:07 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: National Grid tottering on the edge Reply with quote

Larks. The wind isn't blowing, solar is a joke, and we're maxed out on coal, gas, biomass and nukular (Sizewell B and Dungeness nuke plants are offline).

Your are currently reading this thanks to pumped hydro, until that runs dry, then we have a tiny bit of last-ditch gas turbine capacity, then it's the end of civilisation.

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

https://i.imgur.com/3PSI1Iu.png?1

Thanks, ecomentals. Very well done. You should be proud.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 11:26 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well. They could stop the Paddys leaching.
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Fizzoid
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PostPosted: 11:33 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is this like the paperclip game?
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asta1
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PostPosted: 11:59 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or as a counterpoint, even in a calm, cloudy day in the middle of winter when demand is high, the UK grid has sufficient capacity and redundancies to fend off the apocalypse and provide power to paddy.

Not only this, but clean sources such as wind, solar and nuclear contibute more than coal even when 2 reactors are offline.

Good for you Britain...
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asta1
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PostPosted: 13:17 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
Let's not forget that we need to import electric from France. There's a bloody large cable which comes ashore at the end of Folkestone Harbour.


Not sure why you view that as a bad thing really? It makes sense. France has loads of nuclear capacity, and once your plant is installed, the differential in operating costs for flat out vs turned off are practically 0. So either we use gas here in the UK to generate ourselves or buy cheap french nuclear power.

Of course, as your link suggests, in the winter we sell power to the french instead, 0.30GW at this precise moment, because presumably our excess capacity is cheaper than their sources of non-baseline capacity.
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Val
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PostPosted: 14:08 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Re: National Grid tottering on the edge Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
Larks. The wind isn't blowing, solar is a joke, and we're maxed out on coal, gas, biomass and nukular (Sizewell B and Dungeness nuke plants are offline).

Your are currently reading this thanks to pumped hydro, until that runs dry, then we have a tiny bit of last-ditch gas turbine capacity, then it's the end of civilisation.

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

https://i.imgur.com/3PSI1Iu.png?1

Thanks, ecomentals. Very well done. You should be proud.


UK can always import 10 GW from EU you know under the Single market tariff free access...wait Laughing
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asta1
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PostPosted: 17:05 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Re: National Grid tottering on the edge Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
Val wrote:

UK can always import 10 GW from EU you know under the Single market tariff free access...wait Laughing


When we leave the EU, we might be able to build useful power generating resources, instead of being forced to buy German Wind Turbines by the EU.


Possibly we will, but irrespective of what type of capacity we build, it'll cost more to use it than using imported french or dutch electricity. Otherwise we'd do it now.

Besides current reserve capacity will probably meet current needs, it's just cheaper to buy french or dutch power. For instance we have reserve open circuit gas turbine (OCGT on Borgs pic) and some reserve CCGT capacity, which we only run if we absolutely have to as they're inefficient. Losing French import power just means we have to run these more often, raising electricity prices for british citizens...

The only 'benefit' of not using french or dutch electricity is so narrow minded British people can say "Fuck you Europe, we're independent and don't need you."
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owl
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PostPosted: 18:46 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

much lols to above, and now...

Quote:
Oil and gas prices have surged after an explosion in Austria and disruption to supplies from the North Sea hit the energy market just as a cold snap drives up demand.


https://news.sky.com/story/energy-prices-jump-after-explosion-at-gas-hub-in-austria-11167810
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asta1
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PostPosted: 19:01 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Re: National Grid tottering on the edge Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:


What a ridiculous comment.

It could be quite handy as a country, to be self sufficient on certain things, especially energy.
If the French or Dutch suddenly have a shortage, guess who gets cut off first?


You're missing the point. We do have enough capacity to produce all our own power. We just choose, under certain circumstances, to cover our spikes with cheap French power instead of using less economically efficient methods in our own plants.

Put it this way. A cold, calm mid-winter day at around 6pm is likely to be just about peak demand for the grid, hence Rogerborg starting this thread today. But even now, we're still not at max capacity. We have some spare CCGT, some OCGT, some pumped hydro reserves, 2 reactors offline, no solar, what with it being dark and whilst we are buying some dutch power, we're simultaneously exporting almost exactly the same amount of power to the french and the Irish. We have enough generating capacity under almost all circumstances to meet demand (as long as there is either some wind or some sun).

It's just that in some situations it makes more economical sense to buy power from the french grid than to produce it here at a higher cost. As I said earlier, at tise precise moment we're simultaneously importing energy from the netherlands AND exporting it to France and Ireland. This isn't just for fun, we can buy cheap energy from one place and punt it to another at a premium, it's just good business.

Why would you want to increase price per kw/H in the UK, reduce the amount of spare capacity available for the very rare situation we need it, expend large quantities of cash to install more generating capacity here, which, let's face it, the locals won't want anyway and simultaneously miss a chance to rip off the French, just to shout about self-sufficency which we already have? It's just madness.
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asta1
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PostPosted: 19:12 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

That said, the coming weeks should be a good stress test for our grid.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/11/north-sea-forties-pipeline-closure-oil-scotland

This pipeline failure is likely to make gas supplies a bit tight for a few weeks and push up the generating cost at the same time. We might be glad of that French nuclear power to tide us over for a while.

EDIT: Vice got there first.
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thx1138
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PostPosted: 19:22 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

lets get everyone in BCF to turn on everything and see if we can get it to go pop. Laughing
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 19:25 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Re: National Grid tottering on the edge Reply with quote

asta1 wrote:


The only 'benefit' of not using french or dutch electricity is so narrow minded British people can say "Fuck you Europe, we're independent and don't need you."


So paying foreign (and usually state-owned) companies for utility services in the UK is good for the treasury how?

This is nothing to do with narrow minded Brits getting all Brexity about where their power comes from. It's about the natural desire to reduce reliance on foreign entities. This is quite literally nothing to do with abandoning Europe, at least not in the sense you're suggesting. The power comes from France and the Netherlands, who are benefiting greatly from the current setup. It isn't a UK vs Europe thing.

mpd72 wrote:
We're supposed to be in the worlds top 5 or 6 economies, yet we can't afford power stations, A&E, military or schools. Something is very wrong with our economy


Yes there is something wrong. It's called Conservative Party laissez faire doctrine. There are no major UK energy companies to compete with the likes of EDF because start-up costs are no doubt astronomical. It requires the sort of money that can only be attained by taxation of a nation state. Same goes for healthcare, military and schools. But hey let's all carry on taking the easy short termist idiot's route, blindly believing in the invisible, guiding hand of 'market forces' and private enterprise.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 19:33 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Re: National Grid tottering on the edge Reply with quote

asta1 wrote:
We do have enough capacity to produce all our own power.

Just barely, if nothing else has to be taken out of service and demand doesn't rise. Electrocars, yo.

What it really highlights is my broken drum, that "renewables" means building expensive gas turbines in addition to the solar and windmill greenwashing fad. That's why eco-power will never be cheap, because one way or another we're paying double for capacity that's going unused.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 19:46 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Re: National Grid tottering on the edge Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:


What it really highlights is my broken drum, that "renewables" means building expensive gas turbines in addition to the solar and windmill greenwashing fad. That's why eco-power will never be cheap, because one way or another we're paying double for capacity that's going unused.


Return treadmills to prisons then?

If anything there is always this:

https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/PoweredByAForsakenChild

I mean housing, opportunities, pensions etc etc have already been destroyed to buy the votes of the boomers. Why not just run the grid off them by chucking them into furnaces literally Very Happy
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asta1
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PostPosted: 20:26 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Re: National Grid tottering on the edge Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
asta1 wrote:
We do have enough capacity to produce all our own power.

Just barely, if nothing else has to be taken out of service and demand doesn't rise. Electrocars, yo.


Yeah, this may be offset by increasing efficiencies though.

This: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/643414/DUKES_2017.pdf (Page 15)

Sugests a fairly clear downwards trend in UK energy consumption since 2008 despite population growth and can only really be attributed to decreased losses (Page 122)

It also states that maximum 2016 demand of 51.2GW accounted for 77% of total available capacity (Page 120), average loadings for CCGT was around 50% and average loadings for renewables was around 25% (Page 120 again). Can't be bothered to calculate how much of the 'spare' was from renewables and wasn't therefore 'guaranteed available' though.

However I will concede that much more will be needed to meet full electric car usage. Based on yearly electricity demands of 357TWh (Page 111) and the annual consumption of petrol and diesel (463.6TWh) (Page 66), assuming vehicular usage and efficiency remains the same, britain would need another 52.92GW of generating capacity to meet full electric car usage in the worst case scenario. That's about what france has now and represents an approx 40% increase on 2016 capacity.

I expect in the real world this equates to closer to an increase of 70-100GW as it's unlikely that charging demand will be distributed evenly round the clock. This increase would also be useful to offset the inherent unreliability of wind and solar as a split between the two would allow domestic demand to be met by the 'buffer' installed for electric cars during periods where renewables can't operate.

Maths for those who like such things:

Petrol = 12M tonnes pa (45.8MJ/KG)
Diesel = 24.6M tonnes pa (45.5MJ/KG)

Petrol = 5.496E11 MJ
Diesel - 1.1193E12 MJ
Total = 1.6689E12 MJ = 463.6TWh

463.6/(24*365) = 0.05292TW = 52.92GW additional capacity (Assuming peak demand)

Edit: Made a balls up. Edit in Bold
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M.C
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PostPosted: 22:10 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

thx1138 wrote:
lets get everyone in BCF to turn on everything and see if we can get it to go pop. Laughing

Already happens when Corrie or Eastenders ends. God I hate this country.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 22:22 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Re: National Grid tottering on the edge Reply with quote

asta1 wrote:
this may be offset by increasing efficiencies though.

Might be. I'd welcome it. However, once you're on LED lights and have your walls and loft insulated, you're on fairly sharply diminishing returns. Kettles that bleed more heat out the sides than they put into the water aren't going to do it.

The killer will be a big gas price rise or a disruption in supply that drives people towards electric heating. We need to fracking (or fusion) before Russia cuts us off.
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Sun Wukong
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PostPosted: 22:34 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tesla to the rescue

Give it time.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 22:40 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun Wukong wrote:
Tesla to the rescue

Give it time.


Elon Musk is a flim flam artist though.

For batteries he claims to break the laws of physics with various batteries.
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asta1
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PostPosted: 22:48 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun Wukong wrote:
Tesla to the rescue

Give it time.


I'll reserve judgment on that I reckon. If its still there and functioning in 5 years with a useful amount of capacity remaining, then I'll be impressed. If it's still there under the same conditions in 10, I'll concede it's a good idea and actually works. Plus it needs to offer at least 2 out of the following 3: cheaper to install, more reliable and/or better capacity than pumped hydro to be viable in most of Europe.

Good PR and pretty interesting though.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 23:18 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Elon Musk is a flim flam artist though.

So he isn't Jesus? I wasn't sure the way some people go on about him.
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