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chickenstrip
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 Posted: 13:10 - 08 Mar 2018  Post subject: |
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| Pjay wrote: | | chickenstrip wrote: | Stuff |
So you think it's plausible the russians used a weapon that cost in excess of $10m to kill one man, when they could have had the job done for next to nothing in relative terms?
It seems ridiculous to me. |
Who do you think killed Litvinenko?
What do you think killed him?
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chickenstrip
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Posted: 13:36 - 08 Mar 2018  Post subject: |
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Put yourself in Putin's place. You are trying to consolidate your grip on what was a failed system, to rebuild your country and keep it's place as a world power, with you at its head. You have been indoctrinated in the methods of the Soviets from service in the former KGB.
Russia already has Polonium, whether as a part of their nuclear weapons production, or whatever. As an autocratic head of state, you have access to any of the country's resources that you want.
As has been pointed out, use of such an expensive method of assassination limits the possible sources, and points the finger without an explicit admission of guilt. You have reason to want this man dead at a time when you face several threats to your position: Chechen terrorism (as you perceive it), powerful oligarchs who not only have you held to ransom over the country's mineral wealth, but also wish to establish control over the media, and hence a tool to influence public opinion. You also want this man to suffer for what he is trying to do to you, as revenge, and to add potency to your message.
The message Putin would have sent by using such a method would have been clear, not only to the West.
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Pjay
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 13:50 - 08 Mar 2018 Post subject: |
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| Pjay wrote: |
Personally I think he was affected whilst selling/buying it. It just makes zero sense to kill someone with a $10m+ weapon. One that the owner could easily sell for the full price. It's not like you can't sell it, there are plenty of uses for the stuff. |
And where did Litvinenko get $10m+ from to buy it? Does that stack up any better?
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Pjay
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 14:06 - 08 Mar 2018 Post subject: |
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| Pjay wrote: |
You will never convince me that someone used a $10+ weapon to kill someone. Even if that someone was a government.
I can't even understand how nobody else thinks it might be questionable. |
This also helps with Putin's plausible deniability when challenged by the UK government.
I can't remember all the details that have been published about the investigation, and some may never be released into the public domain. But the impression I got was that the case against Putin was pretty solid - just not outright provable in the face of blank denial. I would be willing to believe otherwise if a better argument was made. But even Putin hasn't offered anything that would shift the blame. In the scenario I have painted above, why would he really want to?
Anyway, what's £10m to an oil and gas-rich nation? Another of Putin's enemies, Berezovsky, could wield huge sums in defamatory attacks on Putin, and Litvinenko knew him - Berezovsky was also in London as Litvinenko campaigned against Putin. (Inb4 Berezovsky supplied Litvinenko with the funds - who would sell it to him?).
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 14:09 - 08 Mar 2018 Post subject: |
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| Pjay wrote: | I should also add that the guy I was chatting to explained that the amount of radiation leakage shows that there was a hell of a lot more than the amount they say was used to kill him. Such a small amount wouldn't have left the traces that were found. He said that there was at least $50m worth involved. He seemed to know his onions, so I took that at face value though, so he could be wrong. |
He was a Russian politician. Would you expect him to denounce his own master? And you took his word at face value? A politician from a country that is alien to you, when I'm betting you don't take our own politicians' word at face value?
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Pjay
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Posted: 14:20 - 08 Mar 2018  Post subject: |
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| chickenstrip wrote: | He was a Russian politician. Would you expect him to denounce his own master? And you took his word at face value? A politician from a country that is alien to you, when I'm betting you don't take our own politicians' word at face value? |
Well ok, it seems plausible to you that he was killed with polonium. The only time it has ever been recorded as a weapon, at a cost of over $10m when at the time the russians were usually assassinating with handguns.
I like to weigh up the odds before believing any crap spoon fed to me and yes I find it highly improbable it was used as a weapon. Considering the amount of ways there are to kill someone, trying to convince a killer/agent/mercenary to carry a radioactive ingredient and to slip it into his tea while you are at lunch with him, over a straight stabbing/shooting as usual, would have been a fun conversation.
KGB: 'We need Litvinenko dead
Killer: 'No problem, when would you like it done?'
KGB: 'Next month, he is in London'
Killer: 'Consider it done, Comrade'
KGB: 'Easy Tiger, the boss man want's to push the boat out on this one, he want's you to slip some Polonium into his tea'
Killer: 'Ok?, What's Polonium?
KGB: 'It's a highy toxic radioactive ingredient that will kill him slowly over a few weeks'
Killer: 'You want me to administer a lethal dose of a radioactive poison? How do I keep myself from being affected'
KGB: 'IDK, Google it fs'
Killer: 'Yeah, I'll pass on this one bro'
KBG: 'Pussy'
Killer: 'Later'
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 15:01 - 08 Mar 2018 Post subject: |
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| Pjay wrote: |
Well ok, it seems plausible to you that he was killed with polonium. |
Are you now saying you don't think it was Polonium that killed him? 
| Pjay wrote: | I like to weigh up the odds before believing any crap spoon fed to me and yes I find it highly improbable it was used as a weapon. |
Which is why I have read a bit on the subject (and because it fascinates me), and not just accepted what has been said on tv and radio by the media companies. I'm not saying I'm an expert ([Bodytard mode:] I'm an ex-Soviet KGB operative  ), but thus far, the balance of probability for me rests on Putin, or at least someone high up in the Russian hierarchy, ordering Litvinenko's assassination, and it seems to have been pretty conclusively proved that Polonium was the agent used. Enough so that a layman like me is fairly convinced. Until someone comes up with a more plausible scenario. "Litvinenko poisoned himself trying to buy/sell it" seems far less plausible to me.
| Pjay wrote: | KGB: 'We need Litvinenko dead
Killer: 'No problem, when would you like it done?'
KGB: 'Next month, he is in London'
Killer: 'Consider it done, Comrade'
KGB: 'Easy Tiger, the boss man want's to push the boat out on this one, he want's you to slip some Polonium into his tea'
Killer: 'Ok?, What's Polonium?
KGB: 'It's a highy toxic radioactive ingredient that will kill him slowly over a few weeks'
Killer: 'You want me to administer a lethal dose of a radioactive poison? How do I keep myself from being affected'
KGB: 'IDK, Google it fs'
Killer: 'Yeah, I'll pass on this one bro'
KBG: 'Pussy'
Killer: 'Later' |
Truth is stranger than fiction in the world of espionage
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 15:07 - 08 Mar 2018 Post subject: |
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| Pjay wrote: | | Monkeywrencher wrote: | So why did he swallow millions of dollars worth of polonium by accident again? |
There was a leak, it's obvious by the traces found elsewhere.
The amounts in question are minuscule. He ingested it by accident is my guess. |
And again, how did he come to be in possession of millions of dollars worth of Polonium?
| Pjay wrote: | He said that there was at least $50m worth involved. He seemed to know his onions, so I took that at face value |
I...never mind.
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 15:10 - 08 Mar 2018 Post subject: |
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| mpd72 wrote: | | chickenstrip wrote: | Just blame the Russians... |
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No, not come to any conclusions about Skripal. How could I? What evidence is there? I have no more knowledge of the case than you, and my immediate reaction to the press is similar to yours at this time. Pure speculation at present, and I'm similarly puzzled by the government's public, seemingly gut-reaction.
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 15:17 - 08 Mar 2018 Post subject: |
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| Pjay wrote: | | chickenstrip wrote: | And again, how did he come to be in possession of millions of dollars worth of Polonium? |
Like I said, he was probably brokering a deal of it. |
Based on the word of a complete stranger? Or is there other, convincing evidence to back this up? If you can offer such, I'll reassess my own view. I do realise that we are discussing a subject where much will probably never be known for fact to Joe Public.
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| Posted: 16:07 - 08 Mar 2018 Post subject: |
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| chickenstrip wrote: |
No, not come to any conclusions about Skripal. How could I? What evidence is there? I have no more knowledge of the case than you, and my immediate reaction to the press is similar to yours at this time. Pure speculation at present, and I'm similarly puzzled by the government's public, seemingly gut-reaction. |
Litvenenko's death is still only an assumption as to the perpetrator, yet you seem pretty sure the Ruskies did it.
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| Posted: 16:10 - 08 Mar 2018 Post subject: |
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| Pjay wrote: | I just find it highly unlikely, for the reasons I have given.
1, Cost
2, Application
3, ????
4, Profit |
That's fair enough. I mean, will we ever really know for certain, one way or the other? I'm not 100% certain in the Litvinenko case (how could I be? I don't trust my own authorities either!), just more convinced than of any other scenario right now. Not that any other scenario has been proposed with a solid explanation. If you read up on the subject, and on Putin's rise to power, it makes a lot of sense imo.
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