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'Remarkable' decline in fertility rates

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M.C
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PostPosted: 01:14 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
This highly intellectual debate has gotten away from me Thinking
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Ste
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PostPosted: 01:30 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
That's because you're racist.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 02:09 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
kerr wrote:
stinkwheel wrote:
I also think there are WAY to many people. Having less people has to be a good thing on a global scale.

A shrinking population is a nightmare if you're a politician/banker and think constant growth is the be-all and end-all of economics/govenment.


Thanos, is that you?


He has a point. A really valid one too. The end point would result in the stated aim. If you could half the worlds population overnight, almost all of the planetary problems would disappear.

I'd rather let the effect take its course through natural wasteage rather than by mass genocide but the general concept seems sound. It's just the means of arriving at that "final" solutiuon
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 04:43 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
stinkwheel wrote:

He has a point. A really valid one too. The end point would result in the stated aim. If you could half the worlds population overnight, almost all of the planetary problems would disappear.

I'd rather let the effect take its course through natural wasteage rather than by mass genocide but the general concept seems sound. It's just the means of arriving at that "final" solutiuon


The only drawback with halving the planet's population overnight is that we have to assume it would be by some filthy disease and thus taking affect among the poorer sections of society, you know, the one's who spent their lives grafting doing all the shitty jobs the hipsters and money grabbers wouldn't dream of touching.
Which leaves you with a bunch of effete beardies whose testicles have been zapped by mobile phones, chemicals, pesticides, processed foods and they themselves have no desire to do anything more than smoke dope and brew beer. Not a great recipe for keeping the human race going.
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GSTEEL32
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PostPosted: 11:11 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Looking into the detail, the majority of this drop has been from the Middle East, North Africa & Central Asia where rates have dropped from 7 in the 60's to 3 in 2015.

North America, Europe and Central Asia have stayed pretty constant over the same period (around 3)

The population in the UK, officially, has gone from 54m to 65m, so approx 20%. However, the Independent in 2007 suggested 77m - 80m is nearer the number based on several factors, including the amount of food we consume.

Given the amount of new towns and new builds since these records quoted from the 60's, I find it difficult to believe that the population is only up by 20%. That means there is ALOT of people wandering about, pretty much unaccounted for ..... I cant believe for 1 second that approx 30% of the UK is "transient" or on short term visa's ...
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defblade
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PostPosted: 11:18 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Re: 'Remarkable' decline in fertility rates Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:

The boomer generation were promised super generous pensions as a way of stopping them from agitating for higher pay back in the day. So they didn't need to plan for retirement the traditional way - by having a couple of children to look after them in their dotage.

So what's the solution? Pretty much tell anybody born between 1900 and 2018 that they aren't going to retire EVER.


1900? Seems a little harsh Wink

But my wife and I were just discussing this the other day. I was commenting on how the several large local businesses selling caravans manage to find enough punters to keep going (it's not like you buy a new one every year, either); she said the current thing of a fun, 20 or 30 year long holiday retirement has just been a blip and it's soon going to go back to work all your life, get too ill/old to work, hang around a bit until you die. I think she's right - I'm going to be working well past 60/65 at the current rate unless I take a breadline pension or the housing market in 15-20 years time lets us downsize heavily and take the equity (even that won't allow for lots of years of holiday).

Moral: if your business relies on the grey pound, start looking for a new business...
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 13:56 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
mentalboy wrote:

The only drawback with halving the planet's population overnight is that we have to assume it would be by some filthy disease and thus taking affect among the poorer sections of society, you know, the one's who spent their lives grafting doing all the shitty jobs the hipsters and money grabbers wouldn't dream of touching.
Which leaves you with a bunch of effete beardies whose testicles have been zapped by mobile phones, chemicals, pesticides, processed foods and they themselves have no desire to do anything more than smoke dope and brew beer. Not a great recipe for keeping the human race going.


By natural wasteage, I didn't mean a short term purge because that wouldn't remove the underlying problem of overbreeding. I meant through reduced birth rates, so there are fewer people being born than die.

That would probably have the opposite problem, the poorer sections of society globally also have the highest birth rates. You'd risk landing up with an idiocracy type scenario. As far as I can see, we're heading for it anyway.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 14:30 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
stinkwheel wrote:

He has a point. A really valid one too. The end point would result in the stated aim. If you could half the worlds population overnight, almost all of the planetary problems would disappear.

I'd rather let the effect take its course through natural wasteage rather than by mass genocide but the general concept seems sound. It's just the means of arriving at that "final" solutiuon


The population problem isn't in Europe, it is in Asia and Africa.

stinkwheel wrote:
Im-a-Ridah wrote:
It's due to women delaying children because of their career and millennials suffering from high house prices/rents and tuition fees delaying them starting a family. The economy is already feeling the effects of this too as people are going to buy less stuff to put in the house they don't have and for the baby they don't have.



So what you're saying is the drop in birth rate is in a large part because people can't afford a house.

So isn't this a self-limiting problem? If people don't have kids because they can't afford houses, the number of people will get lower, this will reduce demand for housing, prices will drop, people can afford houses again.

There is a certain symmetry there?


Yes, its a self limiting problem. But... people currently aged 50 ish and above expect "pensions" and pensions are Ponzi schemes to a large extent depending on the next generation to pay for the previous. Boomers are the most import voting block so if they don't get their endless supply of free stuff from the state they will vote for someone else Laughing
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 16:10 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Im-a-Ridah wrote:

The population problem isn't in Europe, it is in Asia and Africa.

I disagree. There are FAR too many people in the UK.

Quote:
Yes, its a self limiting problem. But... people currently aged 50 ish and above expect "pensions" and pensions are Ponzi schemes to a large extent depending on the next generation to pay for the previous. Boomers are the most import voting block so if they don't get their endless supply of free stuff from the state they will vote for someone else Laughing


However, the solution still isn't to breed/import more people, the problem just compounds.

Robots. That's the answer.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 17:55 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Here he is, surprised it took him this long to chip in with the usual.
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 18:41 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Jewlio Rides Again LLB wrote:
Here he is, surprised it took him this long to chip in with the usual.


Despite his way of saying it, we have let far too many people into the country in too short a time with insufficient investment in infrastructure to cope.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 18:48 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
I don't disagree.

What I do disagree with is his blaming of 'them' (foreigners, Muslims, doleys) for everything wrong with the country, and his inability to be wrong and gracious upon being proven so.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 19:22 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Poppycock. Life expectancy hasn't fallen overall, it's in a small number of places. The average is still the same.
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MCN
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PostPosted: 19:44 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Life expectancy is more or less fixed by genes.

We live longer than we should. Mostly.

Our average life expectancy is nearer 45-50.

Stone Age genetics haven't change much only medical intervention has helped and some better creature comforts like shelter, heating and high quality food.

Islam will be here if it manages to survive reason. The control of women by Islamic doctrine means they may out breed the white European man.

White sperm count is lower than before but reasons for that are still not quite clear it may be environmental or something else.

Scandinavian men have the highest count. (And the tallest folk on average.)
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MCN
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PostPosted: 20:09 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 CPT wrote:
Jewlio Rides Again LLB wrote:
Poppycock. Life expectancy hasn't fallen overall, it's in a small number of places. The average is still the same.


Irrelevant. It’s not going up, so not part of the problem is it?

Instead of petty point scoring, get involved.


Stop fite-ing.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 21:33 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 CPT wrote:
Jewlio Rides Again LLB wrote:
Poppycock. Life expectancy hasn't fallen overall, it's in a small number of places. The average is still the same.


Irrelevant. It’s not going up, so not part of the problem is it?

Instead of petty point scoring, get involved.


You just said it's falling. I said it wasn't falling on average. You're wrong. You try to deflect it by saying it's point scoring.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 23:59 - 11 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 CPT wrote:
With indigenous birth rate below 2 and life expectancy falling, the lack of access to housing and public services, at a time of record tax take, can only be explained by too many immigrants in a short space of time, taking more from public services and tax credits than they add to the revenue.

I thought you were anti-social housing? If you think developers are going to flood the market with all the housing we need (and reduce their profits) you're dreaming.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 00:14 - 12 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 CPT wrote:
Irrelevant. Unless it’s going up, it’s not part of the problem.

Even your average Val can get his head around that.


So why did you bring it up?
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rpsmith79
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PostPosted: 08:38 - 12 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Im-a-Ridah wrote:
The economy is already feeling the effects of this too as people are going to buy less stuff to put in the house they don't have and for the baby they don't have. I'm surprised people aren't more concerned about it.


So you are saying, because i don't have (and don't want) kids, i'm not supporting the economy because i am not spending my money in Mother Care......

What do you think i do with all this overflow of money i have then, stuff it under the mattress, or maybe, just maybe, spend it on other stuff, like motorbikes and holidays and nice clothes

And surely a falling birthrate is only a good thing, as the planet is never getting any larger, but the global population is

Funnily enough, i was just watching the 3rd instalment of Da Vinci's Code last night, Inferno, and actually found myself agreeing with the main villain
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grr666
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PostPosted: 09:09 - 12 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
I wouldn't have kids even if I was paid handsomely to do so.

Every single working person I know IRL that has kids is financially handicapped one way or another and
constantly complains about being skint around the end of the pay month. Age of the children seems irrelevant,
it would appear that they cost a packet whether they are babies or teens, although it seems worse the older they get.
While I appreciate that there are some with no such concerns this does certainly seem to apply to the majority
of working parents. My best mate is living in a shitty low rise council flat in Marks Gate opposite a "lovely" family of
Albanian gangsters. If he and his wife never had the kid they had 4 years ago, they would be out of there by now.

What a dismal and depressing place to bring up any child. There was a fatal stabbing opposite his flat a couple of
months ago. Some poor 18YO lad copped it, black of course but there's a lot of blacks in and around Dagenham
nowadays so no big surprise there. Even Trevor Philips has come out this week and said that the wave of stabbings
and violence is a black thing. Bugger that! What future does a kid born today have? Especially in a shithole like
Marks Gate. I used to live 15 mins walk from the place myself. Thank god I found a wife from outside of London who
wants to do something in this world other than have babies. I reckon 90% of UK men that do "voluntarily" father
kids are nagged or tricked into it somehow. I'll pass, thanks.
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