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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:08 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: How long has biking got? Reply with quote

Popped in to a local dealer today, at a loose end, just for a natter.
He said he reckons the bike trade in this country has about 10 years left in it. Sad thought. What does BCF reckon?
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Holdawayt
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PostPosted: 17:13 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Was he on about the future of new bike sales or biking in general?

I don't think I'll ever buy a brand new bike, too many bargains to be had on the second hand market but if he's saying biking will be obsolete in 10 years? No chance, far too many goons like me who like nothing more than a blast through the twisties.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 17:15 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Re: How long has biking got? Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
He said he reckons the bike trade in this country has about 10 years left in it.

I'll probably be dead by then Wub Dealers seem to be dying out already at a fairly rapid rate so maybe less than that. I guess the future will be ordering a Chinese bike in a box Neutral
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:16 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I suppose, being a dealer, he was talking about his side of it, so mostly new bikes I guess. But if new bike sales die, there can't be a future beyond niche interest anyway, can there?
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 17:33 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

No. If new bikes go, the second hand market will as well.

I expect he is talking about bikes you need a full licence for. Many people aren't going to jump through the hoops the government have made for getting a licence.

Commuter scoots might keep going on CBT's but if they screw up that as well, it's the end.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 17:39 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe he was trying to get you to buy something rather than using his business as somewhere to go for a natter when you're at a loose end. Razz
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Suntan Sid
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PostPosted: 17:54 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
I expect he is talking about bikes you need a full licence for. Many people aren't going to jump through the hoops the government have made for getting a licence.


Since the 80's, I've always suspected that the rafts of legislation, regarding motorcycles, has only ever had one aim, that being to legislate motorcycles off the roads, permanently!
Nothing's changed over the decades and ultimately the nanny state will kill off motorcycling, nanny doesn't like individuals taking risks and nanny is always right, whether you like it or not. Rolling Eyes

What is always forgotten, in this type of discussion, is that the UK is a tiny fraction of worldwide motorcycle sales. The rest of the world, outside northern Europe, Canada and the US, rely on chicken chasers, scooters, and small commuter bikes. I can't see any of the manufacturers being that bothered about falling sales in the UK.
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Bhud
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PostPosted: 18:00 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

That geezer's just worried about having to close his store front (he probably knows he'll do it within 2 years, if he told you '10'). Petrol-engined bikes will be kept and maintained as long as they're allowed because the people who like them tend to love them.

Electric bikes are where it will get interesting, as I expect in 10 years all the current licensing laws will be out of date and pointless. Just a guess, but visually, even though small ICE bikes are getting bigger, it's still easy for a traffic cop to know by sight and sound what's a moped, what's a 125, what's a Busa, etc. but with electric:

- How do you figure out kW output of an electric bike with all sorts of complex computer stuff on board that could make a VW diesel blush? I guess you can't just make an insta-judgment based on looks and sounds. So you can't categorise and prosecute people for not having the right A/A1/A2/M
- There are now lots of cycle lanes all over the country. Basically lawless highways intended for pedallers. But even now, there are electric-assisted pedal bikes that look like pushbikes, that use cycle lanes. How much more so in 10 years' time, with much higher power electric motors and shit which is even more miniaturised. You'll look at a pushbike and not even know it has a motor in it. That motor might put out the same sort of power as Zero bikes today, but looking at the bike you'd think it was just some kid's toy.
- Some electric bikes are categorised as motor vehicles that require insurance. Now suppose insurers put licensing and power limits as stipulations on their policies on electric bikes. Who's going to know yours was derestricted if all you had to do was yank an SD card, or the onboard computer was designed to shut down upon impact, etc.
- You think moped-enabled crime is bad? At least you can hear a moped coming.

So what will happen is, the licensing laws will be scrapped, and instead the easy route will be taken of requiring all bikes to have an onboard computer system that does 3 things:

- monitors position by GPS and reports back to a gov system all the time (sold as an anti-theft anti-crime measure) which also, inherently, logs speeding and other traffic offences like using pavements/pushbike/self-driving-car-only lanes
- has a remote shutdown installed by the manufacturer, required by law, which can be operated by police (or, more likely, the privatised corporate district security that we'll see emerge in about 10 years) supposedly as an anti-theft anti-crime measure, and which will actually make it easier to stop 2-wheeled crimes
- connects with the user's phone and all kinds of apps, for info that can be amassed and sold, big data, targeted marketing, etc.

We don't have an advanced tech society, so expect to see this run out in Germany, Singapore, California, etc. first. However, unfortunately, we do have a nanny state society and that sort of mentality, which means we'll get the laws before the machines are a significant industry/market.


Last edited by Bhud on 18:05 - 08 Jan 2019; edited 1 time in total
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 18:01 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
Maybe he was trying to get you to buy something rather than using his business as somewhere to go for a natter when you're at a loose end. Razz


Me, buy something?!
If he can't tell that's not going to happen by taking one look, he's got no business running a business Laughing

It was a one-off visit anyway, just thought I'd have a gander, see if he had anything interesting in. He didn't, not that caught my eye anyway Sad
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DRZ4Hunned
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PostPosted: 18:45 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

The government have driven out new younger riders through all the legislation on licensing, it just too much effort/ too costly.

This forum seems to have quietened down over the last 5 years which seems to support that. I'm 23 and only know 2 young people (under 25) with licences, neither of which have a bike.
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 18:54 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe 30 years, not 10 years.
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 19:10 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

DRZ4Hunned wrote:
The government have driven out new younger riders through all the legislation on licensing, it just too much effort/ too costly.

This forum seems to have quietened down over the last 5 years which seems to support that. I'm 23 and only know 2 young people (under 25) with licences, neither of which have a bike.


... and yet Motorbike sales are still increasing year on year. Petrol bikes will go, relatively soon, probably won't stop me getting a new RE Interceptor at some point this year, as petrol driven vehicles will become a niche in themselves, let alone, motorbikes..

Electric, the presence and ownership/lease will increase fairly rapidly, Zero motorbikes, to some degree lead the way in 'affordable' bikes, but, for the smaller bikes, things like the super soco range of bikes, are very much affordable.. You only had to look at Motorcycle Live @ the NEC this year, and compare it to last year to see the number and variety of electric motorbikes is on the rise.

The knock on effect of the increase in sales of electric bikes, is that they need far less maintainance than a petrol engined bike, no need to worry about oil changes etc, this in turn, means less after sales work for the dealers.

I wouldn't say dealers are decreasing in numbers, certainly not rapidly, but they are morphing, it was only a few years ago Suzuki had a cull of dealerships, most are still around, but with different brands, or, as independents.

The forum quieting down, is probably more down to social media as much as anything else, forums/message boards across virtually every subject, are on the wane.
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andys675
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PostPosted: 20:14 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

easy to see all the grey haired folk at the NEC show, makes you think how long they have on two wheels?

lack of mechanics, loads of bike shops are short of techs, wouldn't want a youngster of mine on the trade

however, been in the trade myself 30 plus years and my mate has a school in the middle of the black country, has got 400 through the test this year
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stevo as b4
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PostPosted: 20:40 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with Sid and Linuxyeti on most points.

New ICE bike sales will reduce further, and then dwindle as the 2040 ICE ban comes closer. The choice of new bikes will reduce and race/sports bikes will die a death as people realise they are unsuitable/unusable on the public roads soon. Not just this but the only buyers with the £17-20k cash will all be too old and too crippled to even get on them in the showroom.

These oldies with dollar will decide which way the new bike market in the UK will go, and Europe too depending on if it's Adventure/Retro/Street or performance mental nakeds that are the latest wank object.

As ICE bikes die out, electric bikes that blur the lines between pedal cycle and motorbike will take over and get very popular. Not just this but pressure from people moving into new housing developments next to motorsports venues, and pressure from countryside groups will shut down the possibility of ongoing off road bike events, and road/drag racing. This will be a hole also filled by electric competition bikes.

I think non road legal and competition bike sales will far outlast road bike sales and use in the UK especially when everything is electric.

Legislation as Sid said wants no new/young riders and the nanny state and doctors/hospitals want to stop organ donors, and the police would be happy with no powered two wheelers to get out foxed and outrun by, and not having to deal with crime facilitated by such vehicles.

Old bikes and second hand stuff. Well I can't see them stopping people already with bikes and licences for them to use them. They'll be restrictions like no city use, no rush hour use and no business use. But bearded old men could still ride/parade and go on organised historic runs on their classics, if they can find some fuel for them.

As for older people with old bikes, well they will gradually buy and hoard more old polishing bikes which will only come onto the market as dead man's shoes. The classics in demand will shift from old British and 60's-80's Jap/European bikes to stuff from around the millennium which will be the new cult classics for the now 20-30 something year olds.

No one will want an old two stroke, and most people under 40 won't know what they are. The few old affluent pensioners will fill their sheds with them, they already have!

Remember they want us in driverless cars, and using public transport pods and automated state owned transport systems, so motorbikes don't have a chance.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 20:52 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

linuxyeti wrote:
Petrol bikes will go, relatively soon, probably won't stop me getting a new RE Interceptor at some point this year,

Lots of people say this, but few actually do it as far as I can tell. Electric sounds cool but when push comes to shove... meh! I don't see tremendous development either.
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kawakid
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PostPosted: 21:15 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

andys675 wrote:
however, been in the trade myself 30 plus years and my mate has a school in the middle of the black country, has got 400 through the test this year


Fecking ell in 8 days what I bloke!
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 22:40 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:

Lots of people say this, but few actually do it as far as I can tell. Electric sounds cool but when push comes to shove... meh! I don't see tremendous development either.


Well, there will no no choice in ice powered vehicles disappearing from sale..

Currently 2040 is the date set for when sale of new petrol & diesel will be banned in the UK, and, already that date is looking like it could be brought forward to 2032, in fact, in some countries the ban will come in much sooner ..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_fossil_fuel_vehicles

Will give you a good idea..

Even if bikes somehow are omitted from the ban, won't really matter, as, with petrol & diesel cars ging the way of the dodo, petrol stations will become economically unviable, so, you won't get the fuel to run the bikes, or, if you can, it'll be prohibitivly expensive.. So, in the not too distant future, to obtain a new bike, you'll have no choice but to choose electric..
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pepperami
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PostPosted: 22:59 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Surely some of the blame must fall to the bike manufacturers themselves?
I know technology moves on and so on but! How complex are bikes nowadays Sad
How many joe-averages can work on thier bikes these days?

Maybe they can pump up the tyres and check fluid levels, some struggle with that Shocked .

Earlier in my bike life when most bikes had carbs, if I had a problem with fuelling, I could whip the carbs off and work on the problem.
Try that now with FI and engine management/black boxes of wizardry they put on bikes nowadays.
I know legislation means lower emissions, blah blah blah and electronicy wizardry stuff helps, but it makes bikes to complicated for joe-average imho.

Take it to a shop I hear you say.
“Yes sir we can fix that for you”, “that will be very many of your pounds please sir” Shocked

Joe-average thinks , stuff this shit, I’ll get a car instead.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 23:13 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

linuxyeti wrote:
Currently 2040 is the date set for when sale of new petrol & diesel will be banned in the UK

Nothing has been set, all that's happened so far is some vague plans / hopes / dreams have been announced. No legislation has been passed and until that happens, it's just talk.

If I was a dealership or repair garage then I'd be much more worried about the decline in private vehicle ownership than I'd be about the possible restrictions on sales of new vehicles with internal combustion engines in 21 years.

You'll still need to buy your electric car from a dealer and you'll still need to get it serviced by a garage. That is of course if we're not all being driven around by Uber self driving cars. Razz
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 23:14 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

linuxyeti wrote:
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:

Lots of people say this, but few actually do it as far as I can tell. Electric sounds cool but when push comes to shove... meh! I don't see tremendous development either.


Well, there will no no choice in ice powered vehicles disappearing from sale..

Currently 2040 is the date set for when sale of new petrol & diesel will be banned in the UK, and, already that date is looking like it could be brought forward to 2032, in fact, in some countries the ban will come in much sooner ..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_fossil_fuel_vehicles

Will give you a good idea..

Even if bikes somehow are omitted from the ban, won't really matter, as, with petrol & diesel cars ging the way of the dodo, petrol stations will become economically unviable, so, you won't get the fuel to run the bikes, or, if you can, it'll be prohibitivly expensive.. So, in the not too distant future, to obtain a new bike, you'll have no choice but to choose electric..


Governments pledging this and that in more than a decade's time is meaningless unless the technology advances enough to beat ICE, and I just don't see it happening. Then there's the change in infrastructure which would require government and local authority investment, but again its not happening. For me, electric is a dead end and biofuels will be the future. The fact that you frequently stand up for electric but haven't bought a vehicle just reinforces my view.
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Pjay
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PostPosted: 23:28 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bike manufacturers are to blame, along with the EU regs.

It wasn't that long ago you could buy a brand new decent bike for £3.5k
Nowadays you can just about buy a half decent 125 for that.

People dont want to be spending £10k+ on new bikes in the numbers they were spending £6k on them. If the bike industry wants to revive itself, it should work out ways to get £5k bikes out that people want to ride. Then they will see an increase in new sales. Until then, people would rather spend £4k on a used bike that's been looked after.
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.Chris.
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PostPosted: 23:37 - 08 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

New or used bike trade? Did he expand on why he thinks that?

Presuming new, on the face of it things don't look too terrible - over 100,000 new bikes (and scooters) were sold last year, a figure it's been hovering around since 2010. Yes, that's less than the early/mid-00s but higher than the early/mid-90s. New bike sales are certainly not experiencing much sustained growth but nor are they in steep decline. Also, if there are indeed fewer dealers than there used to be, that should mean more sales per dealer.

It's been said many times before but the big problem I can see is the increasing average age of riders. There seem to be very few young guys with bikes over 125cc these days. Even compared to when I started riding about 12 years ago there don't seem to be as many. At the moment older guys are the ones with the money to afford new machines but give it 20 years or so and many will be giving up riding and/or dying off. If younger blood doesn't replace them... big problem.

Almost certainly the increasing difficulty and expense of getting a licence to ride anything decent is a factor, but there are others as well. Bikes - new and used - are getting too expensive. At the bottom end of the used market, where a lot of young'uns will start out, bikes look like very poor value for money compared to cars. Bikes also generally require more mechanical intervention from the user than cars - not attractive to many young'uns who aren't learning DIY skills as people did in the past.

There's also just less interest in mechanical things as objects of desire - car manufacturers are finding this out too. A lot of people I know of my sort of age (early 30s) regard a motor vehicle of any sort as an annoyingly expensive necessity, rather than something they really want or take a particular pride in.

As for the bike trade being finished in 10 years, that sounds a bit melodramatic to me, but I could be wrong of course. I wonder how strong the economy is in that dealer's local area? If nobody around him can afford the bikes he's selling, he'll eventually have to close. That doesn't necessarily mean the trade nationally will go the same way, but who knows.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 00:03 - 09 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pjay wrote:
Bike manufacturers are to blame, along with the EU regs.

It wasn't that long ago you could buy a brand new decent bike for £3.5k
Nowadays you can just about buy a half decent 125 for that.

People dont want to be spending £10k+ on new bikes in the numbers they were spending £6k on them. If the bike industry wants to revive itself, it should work out ways to get £5k bikes out that people want to ride. Then they will see an increase in new sales. Until then, people would rather spend £4k on a used bike that's been looked after.

Yamaha did with the MT-07, although that has crept up by over a grand according to Google.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 00:14 - 09 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

One of the main things the dealer mentioned was the sheer power and capability of so many bikes now, even non-sports - just more than many want. He said he thinks these factors and the sheer cost of new bikes has taken a lot of the fun aspect away, just too serious a proposition to many for something that isn't a necessity. The age thing came into this too, as those who can afford the higher end machines just don't want or need that kind of capability - it's daunting to them, even if they don't have to try to use it fully.
He puts a lot of blame on the manufacturers too, for not listening to the punters, asking what they actually do want.

I think the lack of choice of decent all-rounders is a factor, rather than everything being an ultimate in its particular niche. Ultimate sports, ultimate tourer etc, or just 'street bikes' with too much power, too focussed on 'sports' riding. The MT07 I think is actually a good example of where manufacturers ought to concentrate more effort. Manageable but fun, useable.

Funnily enough, electric bikes didn't even enter the conversation, so I don't know what his take on that is. I just don't think it's the same thing as the idea and experience of biking that I grew up with and loved. I suspect he might feel the same.
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GSTEEL32
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PostPosted: 00:33 - 09 Jan 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd have to echo the statement made about not wanting to understand the mechanics of an object.

To me, a bike is as much about the mechanics as the asthetics.

The younger generation simply aren't interested.

Also, I'm not a buyer of this "its all run by electrics now ", "look under a bonnet, and you can't see a thing ". The fact remains that the drive train, brake tech & bodywork have largely remained unchanged since the 70s. The biggest electronic change, worth embracing, was fuel injection. Anyone that has had to piss about with a badly running bike , of more than 1 carb, will testify to the benefit of FI.

Ironically, the biggest advancement in bike technology since the 60s has nothing to do with the manufacturers, it's actually the tyres & rubber technology they run on....

If you don't like the new electrics, get yourself an older bike, ducatis were using 1960s tech well into the late 90s, in the same way that rover were making 1940s cars well into the early 80s...
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