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Easy-X Super Spammer
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Nobby the Bastard |
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Nobby the Bastard Harley Gaydar
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Islander |
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Islander World Chat Champion
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Posted: 16:24 - 20 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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Feasty wrote: | I like the way this thread is going! It'll be fisticuffs soon!
I don't really get the science argument either, if you think about it - the world has been around for billions of years. Man (yes and woman ) has been on the earth for what, 100,000 years in our 'form'. It's only in the last few hundred years we've begun to have an understanding of weather, climate etc. Yet suddenly we have scientists able to discern what's going to happen in the future, what climate change is and what it's going to do and so on and so on...
We can't get a regular accurate weather forecast right for the next week yet, let alone know how ice is going to shift in the next 100 years.
Maybe in a 1000 years time we might have enough data to truly understand how climates change - but for the moment it just feels like science takes historical facts into consideration, has a rough guess what'll happen next, gets it right and goes 'Oh yes we know how it all works and what the future holds'. But when it goes wrong it gets brushed under the carpet until the next time it's right again. |
Scientists know what sort of temperatures and even atmospheric composition back through geological time through proxy analysis. This can be as simple as fossils and sequence stratigraphy in the sedimentary record, or as complicated as isotopic analysis.
They know what's happened in geologically recent time (800,000 years) through ice core analysis. This is a very precise way of gathering data on climate conditions and even things like volcanic eruptions.
Models change as more and more data is collected of course, but compared to the gross record, these are very small corrections.
"Rough guesses" don't cut it. Empirical data does.
Earth's temperature through geological time:
Models change as more and more data is collected of course, but compared to the gross record, these are very small corrections.
"Rough guesses" don't cut it. Empirical data does.
Earth's temperature through geological time:
https://th-thumbnailer.cdn-si-edu.com/1PqzZWCgMZ3K5kbsxJuN6VB92tw=/fit-in/1072x0/https://tf-cmsv2-smithsonianmag-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cms_page_media/2018/3/23/1521819235/All_palaeotemps.png
Note that the relatively recent records show much higher resolution than the earlier records. This reflects the relative availability of proxy data available.
Vast changes are caused by tectonic activity. When supercontinents form it hugely affects climate especially in the heart of the continental mass. Cataclysmic events ie. large igneous provinces (think Siberian and Deccan traps for scale) and impactors (asteroids, comets, etc.) have much shorter term effects.
Solar output has changed over time, 4 billion years ago it was around 70% of today's output. It's also a variable star with a roughly 11 year cycle and larger cycles superimposed on that.
The atmosphere has also changed over time. Prior to the Cambrian, there was very little free oxygen in the atmosphere. Around the time of the Cambrian explosion when life evolved and expanded at a stupendous rate, blue green algae (stromatalites) were common and started the plant respiratory cycle at which time the partial pressure of oxygen increased rapidly. During the Carboniferous (approx 300ma) it increased to around 35% compared with the 21% of today.
So yes, it's complicated but the data has been collected over a long period and we know pretty accurately what the overall global mean surface temperature has been over time. We also have very accurate recent records that show how the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased and more importantly, how the rate of change of GSMT has increased in parallel with the CO2 emissions.
A lot of CO2 was captured in the rock cycle during the Carboniferous and the Jurassic (300ma and 200ma). It would have been recycled in the distant future by tectonic action, but we've been frantically digging it up and putting it back into the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution and especially in the past 100 years.
Climate change is real. Accept it or don't. |
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chickenstrip Super Spammer
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Posted: 17:18 - 20 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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The problem the man-made climate change gospels (according to St. Greta) have is the complete twats preaching them ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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chickenstrip Super Spammer
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Posted: 17:46 - 20 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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Feasty wrote: | I like the way this thread is going! It'll be fisticuffs soon! |
Someone's got to keep this bunch of wet lettuces on their toes ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
THERE'S MILLIONS OF CHICKENSTRIPS OUT THERE! |
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chickenstrip Super Spammer
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Posted: 17:48 - 20 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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Islander wrote: |
As with everything you have to filter out the noise |
It was fun talking with you, bye ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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Posted: 19:03 - 20 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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Nobby the Bastard |
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Easy-X Super Spammer
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Posted: 01:19 - 21 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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Well I used to think it was as simple as "CO2 bad, m'kay" but the real answer is more nuanced than the computing power we currently have available can predict.
I don't believe CO2 is our main problem. It's like the Pandas "ah, so cute, we must save them!" but at what cost? All the other less cute but much more useful endangered animals. Insanely stupid amounts of money are being poured into this rubbish, money that could be better spent on more immediate ecological problems like sewage being dumped in rivers.
Nope, we must have the big ticket item fuck anything that could benefit people in the here and now ____________________ Husqvarna Vitpilen 401, Yamaha XSR700, Honda Rebel, Yamaha DT175, Suzuki SV650 (loan) Fazer 600, Keeway Superlight 125, 50cc turd scooter |
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Islander World Chat Champion
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Posted: 11:57 - 21 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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Easy-X wrote: | Well I used to think it was as simple as "CO 2 bad, m'kay" but the real answer is more nuanced than the computing power we currently have available can predict.
I don't believe CO2 is our main problem. It's like the Pandas "ah, so cute, we must save them!" but at what cost? All the other less cute but much more useful endangered animals. Insanely stupid amounts of money are being poured into this rubbish, money that could be better spent on more immediate ecological problems like sewage being dumped in rivers.
Nope, we must have the big ticket item fuck anything that could benefit people in the here and now |
If you don't believe that then you neither understand the science nor the problem. |
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Posted: 12:33 - 21 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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Nobby the Bastard wrote: | Yep, Rock and Ice cores both show that the higher the CO2 level in the atmosphere, the hotter (or rather how high up sea sediment is laid down.)
The height of the sediment is a proxy for temperature as t indicates sea level. |
I spent a year studying sequence stratigraphy which, put simply, is analysing the sedimentary record. It enables you to tell whether the sea level was rising, falling, steady and even the rate of rise and fall. You have to allow for things like eustatic rebound (rebound of the Earth's surface when the weight of an ice sheet is removed - parts of Scotland are still undergoing this), subsidence (the Earth's land surface is astonishingly plastic over geological time), and sediment supply (is there a mountain chain nearby?) but it's a surprisingly accurate science.
The ice cores can give a strong indication of temperature though oxygen isotope analysis. There are three stable isotopes, O16, O17 and O18 but the amounts of O17 are vanishingly small and thus not used. The other isotopes are strong indicators of temperature though. O16 is present in higher quantities when the temperature and hence the climate is colder, O18 in higher quantities when it's warmer. The ratio of the isotopes is are a strong indicator of climate temperature over time. Atmospheric composition can be determined by careful analysis of bubbles formed when the ice was laid down.
But still, Joe Knowsbetter off of YouTube once read a speculative post on a flake website that said it's all wrong so... |
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Posted: 13:32 - 21 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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Islander wrote: |
If you don't believe that then you neither understand the science nor the problem. |
Unfortunately, "The Science" has become divorced from any problems that may actually exist, and is now done for its own sake. It really has become a quasi-religion now, you aren't allowed to question it without being labelled a heretic
That's how you know it isn't trustworthy. ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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Posted: 13:59 - 21 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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The problem is, when dismissing social media kooks, everyone else with questions gets dismissed as kooks too. And there have been very many very respected people, many scientists, who have and are questioning the narrative that is allowed. And I'm sorry, but when people with valid contributions are shouted down, "narrative" is all it is.
Scientists have often been like this over hundreds of years. Question an idea and get shouted down. Scientists ARE like children in that regard. But politicians are worse. And when the two get mixed up, that's a recipe for disaster. ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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Posted: 14:44 - 21 Jan 2023 Post subject: |
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Easy-X wrote: | I explicitly stated the problem is politicians. |
And scientists who believe they are best placed to guide them, whilst neither understand the other. ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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Nobby the Bastard Harley Gaydar
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 1 year, 87 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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