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Extinction Rebellion or how not to win an argument

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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 16:20 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Islander wrote:
It's solid science. Yes the modelling systems improve with knowledge gains, but to say climate change is settled is a lie is ridiculous. If you think otherwise then you either aren't following or don't understand the science behind it. Rolling Eyes


The "settled" should be "we're looking into some things, the trends don't look good!" which is an entirely reasonable statement.

One would think the scientists would get upset that their work is being corrupted by politicians for a Grand Grift Thinking
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 16:20 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
The rocks themselves are the record.

I hate the fucking Mail but....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3754364/Air-bubbles-trapped-rock-800-MILLION-years-ago-reveal-oxygen-arrived-Earth-earlier-thought.html
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Islander
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PostPosted: 16:24 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Feasty wrote:
I like the way this thread is going! Laughing It'll be fisticuffs soon!

I don't really get the science argument either, if you think about it - the world has been around for billions of years. Man (yes and woman Rolling Eyes ) has been on the earth for what, 100,000 years in our 'form'. It's only in the last few hundred years we've begun to have an understanding of weather, climate etc. Yet suddenly we have scientists able to discern what's going to happen in the future, what climate change is and what it's going to do and so on and so on...

We can't get a regular accurate weather forecast right for the next week yet, let alone know how ice is going to shift in the next 100 years.
Maybe in a 1000 years time we might have enough data to truly understand how climates change - but for the moment it just feels like science takes historical facts into consideration, has a rough guess what'll happen next, gets it right and goes 'Oh yes we know how it all works and what the future holds'. But when it goes wrong it gets brushed under the carpet until the next time it's right again.


Scientists know what sort of temperatures and even atmospheric composition back through geological time through proxy analysis. This can be as simple as fossils and sequence stratigraphy in the sedimentary record, or as complicated as isotopic analysis.

They know what's happened in geologically recent time (800,000 years) through ice core analysis. This is a very precise way of gathering data on climate conditions and even things like volcanic eruptions.

Models change as more and more data is collected of course, but compared to the gross record, these are very small corrections.

"Rough guesses" don't cut it. Empirical data does.

Earth's temperature through geological time:

Models change as more and more data is collected of course, but compared to the gross record, these are very small corrections.

"Rough guesses" don't cut it. Empirical data does.

Earth's temperature through geological time:

https://th-thumbnailer.cdn-si-edu.com/1PqzZWCgMZ3K5kbsxJuN6VB92tw=/fit-in/1072x0/https://tf-cmsv2-smithsonianmag-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cms_page_media/2018/3/23/1521819235/All_palaeotemps.png

Note that the relatively recent records show much higher resolution than the earlier records. This reflects the relative availability of proxy data available.

Vast changes are caused by tectonic activity. When supercontinents form it hugely affects climate especially in the heart of the continental mass. Cataclysmic events ie. large igneous provinces (think Siberian and Deccan traps for scale) and impactors (asteroids, comets, etc.) have much shorter term effects.

Solar output has changed over time, 4 billion years ago it was around 70% of today's output. It's also a variable star with a roughly 11 year cycle and larger cycles superimposed on that.

The atmosphere has also changed over time. Prior to the Cambrian, there was very little free oxygen in the atmosphere. Around the time of the Cambrian explosion when life evolved and expanded at a stupendous rate, blue green algae (stromatalites) were common and started the plant respiratory cycle at which time the partial pressure of oxygen increased rapidly. During the Carboniferous (approx 300ma) it increased to around 35% compared with the 21% of today.

So yes, it's complicated but the data has been collected over a long period and we know pretty accurately what the overall global mean surface temperature has been over time. We also have very accurate recent records that show how the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased and more importantly, how the rate of change of GSMT has increased in parallel with the CO2 emissions.

A lot of CO2 was captured in the rock cycle during the Carboniferous and the Jurassic (300ma and 200ma). It would have been recycled in the distant future by tectonic action, but we've been frantically digging it up and putting it back into the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution and especially in the past 100 years.

Climate change is real. Accept it or don't. Laughing
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Islander
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PostPosted: 16:25 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Easy-X wrote:
Islander wrote:
It's solid science. Yes the modelling systems improve with knowledge gains, but to say climate change is settled is a lie is ridiculous. If you think otherwise then you either aren't following or don't understand the science behind it. Rolling Eyes


The "settled" should be "we're looking into some things, the trends don't look good!" which is an entirely reasonable statement.

One would think the scientists would get upset that their work is being corrupted by politicians for a Grand Grift Thinking


No, we're long past that stage. Acceleration of climate change is a reality.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:18 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
The problem the man-made climate change gospels (according to St. Greta) have is the complete twats preaching them Razz
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Islander
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PostPosted: 17:44 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:
The problem the man-made climate change gospels (according to St. Greta) have is the complete twats preaching them Razz


As with everything you have to filter out the noise Wink
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:46 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Feasty wrote:
I like the way this thread is going! Laughing It'll be fisticuffs soon!


Someone's got to keep this bunch of wet lettuces on their toes Laughing
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:48 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Islander wrote:

As with everything you have to filter out the noise Wink


It was fun talking with you, bye Laughing
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Islander
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PostPosted: 19:03 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:
Islander wrote:

As with everything you have to filter out the noise Wink


It was fun talking with you, bye Laughing


Oh I see. You're filtering yourself out are you? Razz
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 19:14 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Welcome to nicks enema list. I wear it as a badge of honour.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 21:08 - 20 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
I do like the whole 'Meh, I don't believe it's true so it's not' approach by those who think that pumping fuck loads of CO2 into the atmosphere isn't a bad idea when those (who incidentally seem to be far more intelligent) who think it is back it up with data.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 01:19 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Well I used to think it was as simple as "CO2 bad, m'kay" but the real answer is more nuanced than the computing power we currently have available can predict.

I don't believe CO2 is our main problem. It's like the Pandas "ah, so cute, we must save them!" but at what cost? All the other less cute but much more useful endangered animals. Insanely stupid amounts of money are being poured into this rubbish, money that could be better spent on more immediate ecological problems like sewage being dumped in rivers.

Nope, we must have the big ticket item fuck anything that could benefit people in the here and now Sad
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Islander
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PostPosted: 11:57 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Easy-X wrote:
Well I used to think it was as simple as "CO2 bad, m'kay" but the real answer is more nuanced than the computing power we currently have available can predict.

I don't believe CO2 is our main problem. It's like the Pandas "ah, so cute, we must save them!" but at what cost? All the other less cute but much more useful endangered animals. Insanely stupid amounts of money are being poured into this rubbish, money that could be better spent on more immediate ecological problems like sewage being dumped in rivers.

Nope, we must have the big ticket item fuck anything that could benefit people in the here and now Sad


If you don't believe that then you neither understand the science nor the problem.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 12:10 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Yep, Rock and Ice cores both show that the higher the CO2 level in the atmosphere, the hotter (or rather how high up sea sediment is laid down.)

The height of the sediment is a proxy for temperature as it indicates sea level.
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Islander
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PostPosted: 12:33 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Yep, Rock and Ice cores both show that the higher the CO2 level in the atmosphere, the hotter (or rather how high up sea sediment is laid down.)

The height of the sediment is a proxy for temperature as t indicates sea level.


I spent a year studying sequence stratigraphy which, put simply, is analysing the sedimentary record. It enables you to tell whether the sea level was rising, falling, steady and even the rate of rise and fall. You have to allow for things like eustatic rebound (rebound of the Earth's surface when the weight of an ice sheet is removed - parts of Scotland are still undergoing this), subsidence (the Earth's land surface is astonishingly plastic over geological time), and sediment supply (is there a mountain chain nearby?) but it's a surprisingly accurate science.

The ice cores can give a strong indication of temperature though oxygen isotope analysis. There are three stable isotopes, O16, O17 and O18 but the amounts of O17 are vanishingly small and thus not used. The other isotopes are strong indicators of temperature though. O16 is present in higher quantities when the temperature and hence the climate is colder, O18 in higher quantities when it's warmer. The ratio of the isotopes is are a strong indicator of climate temperature over time. Atmospheric composition can be determined by careful analysis of bubbles formed when the ice was laid down.

But still, Joe Knowsbetter off of YouTube once read a speculative post on a flake website that said it's all wrong so... Laughing
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 12:35 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Islander wrote:
If you don't believe that then you neither understand the science nor the problem.


When is CO2 going to kill us all? Next year, next decade, next 100 years, next thousand?! We have more pressing problems that are killing people right now. It's a question of priorities.

And what care I whether the data is good or not when the implementation is in the hands of politicians?
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Islander
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PostPosted: 12:45 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Easy-X wrote:
Islander wrote:
If you don't believe that then you neither understand the science nor the problem.


When is CO2 going to kill us all? Next year, next decade, next 100 years, next thousand?! We have more pressing problems that are killing people right now. It's a question of priorities.

And what care I whether the data is good or not when the implementation is in the hands of politicians?


FFS. Climate change is a global problem and it's killing people now.

I've laid the painstaking science out over several posts. It's science. It's based on empirical data. Not guesswork. Not back-of-a-fag-packet-finger-in-the-air speculation. Empirical data.

Yes river, land and ocean pollution needs to be addressed but CO2 is a much higher priority. We're close to several critical tipping points. Once you go past those then positive feedback mechanisms take over.

But you go ahead and believe the YouTubers. Rolling Eyes

AfTer aLL sCiEnTisTs r dUm rLy. Brick Wall
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 13:32 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Islander wrote:


If you don't believe that then you neither understand the science nor the problem.


Unfortunately, "The Science" has become divorced from any problems that may actually exist, and is now done for its own sake. It really has become a quasi-religion now, you aren't allowed to question it without being labelled a heretic Rolling Eyes
That's how you know it isn't trustworthy.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 13:48 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
The science has been known about for decades. How and why climate changes was covered 8n my O level geology course in 1986.

The speed of change at the moment is almost at a similar rate as some of the great extinction events of geological time.
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Islander
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PostPosted: 13:49 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:
Islander wrote:


If you don't believe that then you neither understand the science nor the problem.


Unfortunately, "The Science" has become divorced from any problems that may actually exist, and is now done for its own sake. It really has become a quasi-religion now, you aren't allowed to question it without being labelled a heretic Rolling Eyes
That's how you know it isn't trustworthy.


Science has always been about seeking knowledge. In that sense, it's always been done for its own sake.

Questioning scientific results is how science progresses and is part of the method. That of course requires sufficient knowledge of the subject you're questioning and that takes a lot of time and study to achieve.

I know I keep saying this (but it's unfortunately where a lot of the 'knowledge' to challenge a subject seems to come from), watching a couple of YouTube videos and reading web pages with dubious (to say the least) bona fides really doesn't arm the individual with the necessary knowledge to be able to mount a credible challenge.

I've not seen anyone here put a credible argument up that would challenge any aspect of the science of climate change. Most seem to argue/debate from a platform based on dogma rather than taking time to digest the information that's available and base their argument on that.

That, not science, is the problem.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 13:59 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
The problem is, when dismissing social media kooks, everyone else with questions gets dismissed as kooks too. And there have been very many very respected people, many scientists, who have and are questioning the narrative that is allowed. And I'm sorry, but when people with valid contributions are shouted down, "narrative" is all it is.

Scientists have often been like this over hundreds of years. Question an idea and get shouted down. Scientists ARE like children in that regard. But politicians are worse. And when the two get mixed up, that's a recipe for disaster.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 14:02 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:
The problem is, when dismissing social media kooks, everyone else with questions gets dismissed as kooks too. And there have been very many very respected people, many scientists, who have and are questioning the narrative that is allowed. And I'm sorry, but when people with valid contributions are shouted down, "narrative" is all it is.

Scientists have often been like this over hundreds of years. Question an idea and get shouted down. Scientists ARE like children in that regard. But politicians are worse. And when the two get mixed up, that's a recipe for disaster.


Pot, kettle?
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 14:38 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Islander wrote:
But you go ahead and believe the YouTubers. Rolling Eyes

AfTer aLL sCiEnTisTs r dUm rLy. Brick Wall


YouTubers? I don't know where that came from, a convenient bogeyman I suppose but I'm arguing a points of principle. Is that what worries you?

And why strawman about scientists? I explicitly stated the problem is politicians.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 14:44 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
Easy-X wrote:
I explicitly stated the problem is politicians.


And scientists who believe they are best placed to guide them, whilst neither understand the other.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 15:25 - 21 Jan 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote
I can understand the hatred of politicians, but your rabid hatred of scientists is bizarre. When are you going to start with the witch burnings?
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