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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 10:34 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: We'll all be dead soon... Reply with quote

...as in the Human Race. Scared? You should be, but you're not!

"What the fuck are you banging on about now, HD?"

Sam Harris came out with something interesting a while back that I missed in the noise:

Artificial Intelligence

At the moment we have lots of specialist intelligences at work. The first "unfathomable" one being Google's internal time and resource scheduler, Omega, that - while it does it's job admirably - has behaviours that are not predictable by its creators.

But we are inching, ever so slowly, towards "general intelligence" and the crucial thing is the rate of progress is unimportant. Progress is being made so there is a definite, fatal certainty that it will happen. And once created such an intelligence won't have the constraints of a finite number of neurons locked in a skull.

Climate Change? Really?! This is much more scary and real:

Quote:
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 10:37 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't believe all you read. Plenty of companies are bigging up 'AI' and 'Machine learning' right now, but we're faar from skynet just yet.

Climate change is still the most real and present danger to the human race (ignoring asteroid collision, which pretty much can't be stopped anyway).

AI won't be an issue in my lifetime or even the lifetime of my 4 year old nephew. It might be in the lifetime of his kids of course, but I won't care about that. What I do care about is our F*cked environment, and how it now seems to be a lot worse than we were told as kids.
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owl
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PostPosted: 10:59 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

as above, pretty sure the planet will be fucked long before this is a problem
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Hetzer
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PostPosted: 11:50 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

My contention is that once an AI becomes self-aware it'll be because it's capable of, and does, host consciousness. That consciousness being one of the exact same ones that inhabit human vessels or any others from across the universe (consciousness being separate from the corporeal body).

The issue then is will the AI hardware include an empathy function. If not the risk of a psychopathic entity will exist. But if it's not got access to anything beyond itself it can't do much harm. Will it be able to trick its makers into giving it access to anything that'll enable it to do harm? Knowing humans, probably yes.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 11:51 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

owl wrote:
as above, pretty sure the planet will be fucked long before this is a problem


If you listen to the 70's and 80's "scientists" with a vested interest in throwing money at studies into how the planet is being killed by man, we'd all have been dead by now.

Predictions from decades ago have constantly fallen short by at least 3 fold or been complete bollocks. We'd have ran out of oil a long time ago, all be fried by a missing Ozone layer and eroded by acid rain.
Even current and recent predictions are largely exaggerated by around 3 times plus.

To coincide with earth day, here are a few environmental predictions made by "scientists" on earth day 1970:

1. The Global temperature will be 4 degrees colder by 1990 and 11 degrees colder by 2000.
2. Civilisation will end within 15-20 years.
3. 100-200 million people will be starving to death in the next 10-15 years.
4. Life expectancy (due to the effects of climate change) will be 42 by 1980.
5. In the next few years, population will outstrip any small increases in food supply.
6. By the year 2000 there won't be any crude oil left.
7. By 1980, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution which will block out half the sunlight.
8. Childbearing will soon be a crime.

...and for good measure Al Gore said in his remarkable piece of fiction, "An Inconvenient Lie":

9. (said in 2007, 2008 and 2009) the Arctic will be totally devoid of summer sea ice by 2013/14.
10. Sea level would rise by 20' in the near future. In fact global sea level is rising about 3mm globally per year, so a 20' rise at current rate would take until 3017.
11. The oceanic conveyor will shortly shut down. In fact in 2010, NASA found that there had been no slowing down over the last 15 years and it may have actually speeded up slightly.

It is also worth noting that when Al Gore was born, there were 7,000 polar bears in existence, today there are only 40,000 left!

Lastly, and just for good measure

A leaked report makes the extraordinary concession that over the past 15 years, recorded world temperatures have increased at only a quarter of the rate of IPCC claimed when it published its last assessment in 2007. Back then, it said observed warming over the 15 years from 1990-2005 had taken place at a rate of 0.2C per decade, and it predicted this would continue for the following 20 years, on the basis of forecasts made by computer climate models. But the new report says the observed warming over the more recent 15 years to 2012 was just 0.05C per decade - below almost all computer predictions.
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owl
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PostPosted: 12:51 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
rant


humans are cancer and the sooner we make ourselves extinct the better

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/06/world/one-million-species-threatened-extinction-humans-scn-intl

Also to clarify Im not saying this will happen any time soon, humans going extinct, but I am saying that Id expect true AI to take at least another 30-50 years, by which time it may not matter, unless it decides self preservation is more important than us. Either way it wont be my problem.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 12:59 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

owl wrote:
mpd72 wrote:
rant


Or uncomfortable fact as some call it. Which part of that paste are you denying? How was it in any way a "rant"?

owl wrote:
humans are cancer


Self loathing at it's finest.

owl wrote:
and the sooner we make ourselves extinct the better


You first Tarquin. Thumbs Up
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 13:11 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

@mpd: sorry for the " Thumbs Down ", but this could be an interesting discussion. Turning everything into a personal gripe about politics and then getting insulting is wearing a bit thin.
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owl
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PostPosted: 13:25 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:

Self loathing at it's finest.


my hatred is not confined, but yes it's mostly for mankind

mpd72 wrote:

You first


you'll be dead and buried long before me I'd guess

mpd72 wrote:
Tarquin Thumbs Up


you don't seem to understand what this term means if you're using it to refer to me Rolling Eyes just seems to be your new abuse to lob around at people that don't agree with you
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MCN
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PostPosted: 14:11 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
owl wrote:
as above, pretty sure the planet will be fucked long before this is a problem


If you listen to the 70's and 80's "scientists" with a vested interest in throwing money at studies into how the planet is being killed by man, we'd all have been dead by now.

Predictions from decades ago have constantly fallen short by at least 3 fold or been complete bollocks. We'd have ran out of oil a long time ago, all be fried by a missing Ozone layer and eroded by acid rain.
Even current and recent predictions are largely exaggerated by around 3 times plus.

To coincide with earth day, here are a few environmental predictions made by "scientists" on earth day 1970:

1. The Global temperature will be 4 degrees colder by 1990 and 11 degrees colder by 2000.
2. Civilisation will end within 15-20 years.
3. 100-200 million people will be starving to death in the next 10-15 years.
4. Life expectancy (due to the effects of climate change) will be 42 by 1980.
5. In the next few years, population will outstrip any small increases in food supply.
6. By the year 2000 there won't be any crude oil left.
7. By 1980, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution which will block out half the sunlight.
8. Childbearing will soon be a crime.

...and for good measure Al Gore said in his remarkable piece of fiction, "An Inconvenient Lie":

9. (said in 2007, 2008 and 2009) the Arctic will be totally devoid of summer sea ice by 2013/14.
10. Sea level would rise by 20' in the near future. In fact global sea level is rising about 3mm globally per year, so a 20' rise at current rate would take until 3017.
11. The oceanic conveyor will shortly shut down. In fact in 2010, NASA found that there had been no slowing down over the last 15 years and it may have actually speeded up slightly.

It is also worth noting that when Al Gore was born, there were 7,000 polar bears in existence, today there are only 40,000 left!

Lastly, and just for good measure

A leaked report makes the extraordinary concession that over the past 15 years, recorded world temperatures have increased at only a quarter of the rate of IPCC claimed when it published its last assessment in 2007. Back then, it said observed warming over the 15 years from 1990-2005 had taken place at a rate of 0.2C per decade, and it predicted this would continue for the following 20 years, on the basis of forecasts made by computer climate models. But the new report says the observed warming over the more recent 15 years to 2012 was just 0.05C per decade - below almost all computer predictions.


Get out of it.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 14:13 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

This thread is going to end up so off topic Sad
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MCN
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PostPosted: 14:15 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
This thread is going to end up so off topic Sad


I disagree with this post

We have Professor Emeritus MDF-2x4 to steer the course for us. Rolling Eyes
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 14:28 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Re: We'll all be dead soon... Reply with quote

HardlyDavidson wrote:
And once created such an intelligence won't have the constraints of a finite number of neurons locked in a skull.


I think a much better pursuit would be learning if we can unlock the unused potential of our own brains that we are constantly told about (especially in my case - more than most Laughing ). AI seems like a bit of an excuse in some ways, not to think for ourselves - let a machine do all our thinking for us, except for those developing it.
So when we get to a point that we as people never have to lift a finger, what will life be about for us?

Here's another question for you: At what point does AI stop being artificial?

AI raises many more questions than just progress of technology.
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Easy-X
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HardlyDavidson



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PostPosted: 14:30 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip YFPOS wrote:
@mpd: sorry for the " Thumbs Down ", but this could be an interesting discussion. Turning everything into a personal gripe about politics and then getting insulting is wearing a bit thin.


Thanks.

This sorta proves my point: a few ppl are shit scared of climate change but not bothered by AI...

Does anyone wish to deny an artificial "general" intelligence is a case of when not if. Waving your hands about muttering "50 years off" does nothing to soften the inevitability it just highlights a certain "I'm alright, Jack" attitude.

Climate change may or may not be a thing, depending on who you talk to, and even if you want to lie and say "yes, it damn well is a thing!" it's a possibility it could be reversed, avoided or mitigated. Technological progress is only one way, barring catastrophe...

Let see, we're all going to die of:

- Asteroid strike: random chance and statistically inevitable one might argue but the longer we don't have one the more chance such an event could be spotted and successfully deflected.
- Pandemic: the Black Plague killed off half of Europe. Even imagining something more virulent there's a fair chance of isolation or natural immunity saving at least some ppl. Again, with time medical technology should make this more and more unlikely.
- Super volcano: for my money the most overlooked event for global catastrophe. There's a few of these due to blow in the next few thousand years and I don't think there's much we can do about it.
- Climate Change: well yes, if anyone would come out with something coherent on the matter that would be great!
- Nuclear War: funnily enough it might be triggered by someone working on AI. Considering whomsoever creates a general intelligence effectively owns the world (albeit briefly) some people with, how say we say, differing political or religious views might see such a creation as a threat. (Doh! better late than never)
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owl
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PostPosted: 14:41 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

HardlyDavidson wrote:

Let see, we're all going to die of:

- Asteroid strike: random chance and statistically inevitable one might argue but the longer we don't have one the more chance such an event could be spotted and successfully deflected.
- Pandemic: the Black Plague killed off half of Europe. Even imagining something more virulent there's a fair chance of isolation or natural immunity saving at least some ppl. Again, with time medical technology should make this more and more unlikely.
- Super volcano: for my money the most overlooked event for global catastrophe. There's a few of these due to blow in the next few thousand years and I don't think there's much we can do about it.
- Climate Change: well yes, if anyone would come out with something coherent on the matter that would be great!
- Nuclear War: funnily enough it might be triggered by someone working on AI. Considering whomsoever creates a general intelligence effectively owns the world (albeit briefly) some people with, how say we say, differing political or religious views might see such a creation as a threat. (Doh! better late than never)


You forgot

- Lack of a certain rain deterrent device Although wipeypal looks like it's here rescue us

*scratch that, we're all still doomed
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 14:41 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well it's not me who'll send it off topic. Not this one anyway.

I'm of a more mature age and can well remember the horrors and scares we were brainwashed with at school. Examples included 20 years of coal left which is total and utter b....cks.
Enough of that though.

With the AI thing, as mentioned, it needs to become attached to something and then be able to take it over. The internet is the most obvious example but guess what? We will not die if we don't use the internet. So many people have become addicted to the damned thing. Sure it's not just for entertainment but still..
AI will just be a big virus and we can deal with those.

I do look forward to cheap f*ck robots with a hint of intelligence though.
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Andy_Pagin
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PostPosted: 15:00 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's a world of difference between artificial stupidityintelligence and human self aware creative/destructive thinking. The latter took several billion years of trial and error involving countless trillions of test runs using components infinitely more sophisticated than anything we've come up with. I wouldn't worry too much, not for a few thousand years anyway.
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Bubbs
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PostPosted: 15:01 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we're a loooong way off AI being an issue.

Article from 2014:

One of the world's most powerful supercomputers is still no match for the humble human brain, taking 40 minutes to replicate a single second of brain activity.

Researchers in Germany and Japan used K, the fourth-most powerful supercomputer in the world, to simulate brain activity. With more than 700,000 processor cores and 1.4 million gigabytes of RAM, K simulated the interplay of 1.73 billion nerve cells and more than 10 trillion synapses, or junctions between brain cells. Though that may sound like a lot of brain cells and connections, it represents just 1 percent of the human brain's network. Clickalicious

However, I imagine if a simple AI can self replicated and programme it's next generation to become smarter then the time it would take for evolution would be very small.

Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk were both very vocal about their fears of it... who knows... maybe AI killed Hawking?
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 15:07 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

MCN wrote:
bhinso wrote:
This thread is going to end up so off topic Sad


I disagree with this post

We have Professor Emeritus MDF-2x4 to steer the course for us. Rolling Eyes


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costa_Concordia

Sorry, I just couldn't help it Sad
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Andy_Pagin
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PostPosted: 15:10 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bubbs wrote:
However, I imagine if a simple AI can self replicated and programme it's next generation to become smarter then the time it would take for evolution would be very small.
In order to program it's next generation to become more intelligent would require creative thought in the first place, and the capability to build it's own neural network, so not very likely, in fact with our laughably primitive computers which haven't evolved at all since the 1960s I'd rate it as impossible. Evolution happened largely because cells often fucked up when they reproduced creating mutations, 99% of which were useless, hence the multi billion year development cycle.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 15:26 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

HardlyDavidson wrote:
Super volcano: for my money the most overlooked event for global catastrophe. There's a few of these due to blow in the next few thousand years and I don't think there's much we can do about it.


I like this one. The planet itself shows us how irrelevant current life forms and what they do are. Sheer poetry. Puts everything in perspective. And it's absolutely inevitable as a function of the way the "living planet" works. Asteroids/meteor strikes? Maybe we'll one day be able to avert them. But this...nope. And thus far, we have no effective way to predict it. And, what if we could? Indeed, nowt we could do anyway.

Which is probably why not so many people bother to discuss it.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 15:32 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm utterly amazed how a so called sentient race can do so much good and so much bad at the same time.

I don't think AI is going to matter for many many generations. How do I know this? I asked Alexa Rolling Eyes

No, really it's pure numbers of Humans that will fuck everything until a global catastrophe of 1 sort or another culls us.

We cull animals because various reasons. In this country, Foxes, Badgers, Deer are all culled for risk to dairy herds and domestic chickens. In other countries, Wolves, bears, anything a threat to humans has to go.

One day we will have to cull humans.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 15:37 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:


One day we will have to cull humans.


We already do, periodically. It's called war.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 15:52 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip YFPOS wrote:
Polarbear wrote:


One day we will have to cull humans.


We already do, periodically. It's called war.


It won't be enough. At least, not he sort of wars we have. We don't need to get rid of a few million, we need to get rid of a few BILLION.

Unless, as resources dry up, the choice will be move off this planet or fight over what's left.

We have ignored space flight, we can't sent a manned ship to Mars let alone a colony ship to some distant star so it leaves fight over resources. That will be vicious and bloody. Genocidal in fact.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 16:03 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem is there is nowhere in the solar system that is particularly hospitable. The most likely is Titan (and a shit film was recently made about it).

The problem with going to other star systems is they're just too far away for our current technology. It would be like a snail crawling to America. For example, the NEAREST star (Proxima Centuri) is 4.2 light years away. At our fastest current speeds it would take 75,000 years to reach it!
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