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Howling Terror
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PostPosted: 16:46 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
AI within 50yrs? Yes....that's a blink of an eye.

I liked this vid. 15mins long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nt3edWLgIg
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Andy_Pagin
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PostPosted: 16:51 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
On the bright side, well as far as the planet is concerned, we're due another ice age in about 15,000 years, that should do away with humanity and then the rest of life-kind can breath a huge sigh of relief and carry on evolving grateful that the whole intelligent life thing is confined to history.
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Bhud
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PostPosted: 17:03 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Andy_Pagin wrote:
On the bright side, well as far as the planet is concerned, we're due another ice age in about 15,000 years, that should do away with humanity and then the rest of life-kind can breath a huge sigh of relief and carry on evolving grateful that the whole intelligent life thing is confined to history.


All species are destined for extinction, and intelligent life is surely just a blip of an evolutionary experiment (and bound to fail, considering it couldn't even work out hunting-gathering vs agricultural sedentism, and seeing how it now supports the survival and reproduction of congenital weakness and illness) considering how briefly it's been around. As a staunch antinatalist, I have no problems with the OP's vision of the future (an autonomous collective intelligence supplanting the intelligent ape). In fact, there is no way to prove that it isn't already here. You could argue that natural selection itself, and the culling of profligate excess and imbalance in nature, is an exercise of the one of the faculties of a collective intelligence.
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Hetzer
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PostPosted: 17:09 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Bhud wrote:
Andy_Pagin wrote:
On the bright side, well as far as the planet is concerned, we're due another ice age in about 15,000 years, that should do away with humanity and then the rest of life-kind can breath a huge sigh of relief and carry on evolving grateful that the whole intelligent life thing is confined to history.


All species are destined for extinction, and intelligent life is surely just a blip of an evolutionary experiment (and bound to fail, considering it couldn't even work out hunting-gathering vs agricultural sedentism, and seeing how it now supports the survival and reproduction of congenital weakness and illness) considering how briefly it's been around. As a staunch antinatalist, I have no problems with the OP's vision of the future (an autonomous collective intelligence supplanting the intelligent ape). In fact, there is no way to prove that it isn't already here. You could argue that natural selection itself, and the culling of profligate excess and imbalance in nature, is an exercise of the one of the faculties of a collective intelligence.


Considering this entire universe is most likely a construct of consciousness, the fate of anything within it is irrelevant. None of it is 'real' anyway.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 17:30 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Regarding human intelligence, yes it has taken a while for us to get to where we are now. So called "modern" humans have only been around for less than 100,000 years and before that we were one step away from chimps!

So a depressingly long time Sad However, ppl started with wolves 10,000 years ago and now we have Pugs! And most of that progress was in the last 1000 years.

To simulate a human brain? I could admit to that being an almost insurmountable task but we don't need to replicate a brain we need to replicate intelligence. Already Google's image categorising AI can do a better job than any human could. Bit by bit small areas, specific tasks are being completely dominated by primitive specialist AIs until no one would even consider doing such a task by hand.
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Andy_Pagin
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PostPosted: 20:42 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Thing is computers aren't intelligent, they create an illusion of intelligence by shifting ones and zeros about extremely quickly. I believe to create genuine artificial intelligence we need to start with something that functions like a biological brain and we're nowhere near capable of creating such a thing
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 21:26 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
bhinso wrote:
The problem is there is nowhere in the solar system that is particularly hospitable. The most likely is Titan (and a shit film was recently made about it).

The problem with going to other star systems is they're just too far away for our current technology. It would be like a snail crawling to America. For example, the NEAREST star (Proxima Centuri) is 4.2 light years away. At our fastest current speeds it would take 75,000 years to reach it!


And not just that, we don't know much about those far distant objects. We only assume they could be habitable. Imaging getting there, after those years, to die right after people step out of the ship.

That being said, before we figure out how to shield people from the radiation in space and other issues, such as osteoporosis, losing muscle matter... I can't see them making any such trips. Even going to Mars with the current spacecraft technology would lead to creating bunch of cancer patients, that won't be able to move once they land on the Mars, after months of being weightless.

EDIT: Before someone starts to point things out Yes, some of the astronauts spend/t up to several months on the ISS and MIR, however, they do lose bone density and they also lose muscle matter and once they get back they can't even walk. Mind you, the ISS is in the microgravity and they do exercise every day up there. Cancer is not an issue there either, as the ISS is in the protective magnetic field of the Earth.
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Robby
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PostPosted: 22:41 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Andy_Pagin wrote:
Thing is computers aren't intelligent, they create an illusion of intelligence by shifting ones and zeros about extremely quickly. I believe to create genuine artificial intelligence we need to start with something that functions like a biological brain and we're nowhere near capable of creating such a thing


This.

Machine learning is causing quite a buzz at the moment, because its finally financially viable for certain tasks and improving performance in unexpected areas. One of the big ones, for both money invested and results out, is in medical diagnostic applications.

But that isn't a step towards a self-aware AI. At most it's a step towards framing the questions around what a self-aware AI would be, and how difficult it might be to make.

To look at it another way, we kind of know how to make fusion power work, but it needs a few more clever breakthroughs. We kind of know how to go about making a 10x better battery for electric cars, but it needs a few more breakthroughs. Those two things keep being decades away, and are much closer to reality than a self-aware AI.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 23:21 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
We do have intelligent systems that function like the human brain already: they're called neural nets Smile They've even discovered machines can be racist... they take on some of the bias of their creators: white middle aged men in lab coats Very Happy
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 23:40 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Robby wrote:
Andy_Pagin wrote:
Thing is computers aren't intelligent, they create an illusion of intelligence by shifting ones and zeros about extremely quickly. I believe to create genuine artificial intelligence we need to start with something that functions like a biological brain and we're nowhere near capable of creating such a thing


This.

Machine learning is causing quite a buzz at the moment, because its finally financially viable for certain tasks and improving performance in unexpected areas. One of the big ones, for both money invested and results out, is in medical diagnostic applications.

But that isn't a step towards a self-aware AI. At most it's a step towards framing the questions around what a self-aware AI would be, and how difficult it might be to make.

To look at it another way, we kind of know how to make fusion power work, but it needs a few more clever breakthroughs. We kind of know how to go about making a 10x better battery for electric cars, but it needs a few more breakthroughs. Those two things keep being decades away, and are much closer to reality than a self-aware AI.


I think a lot of the discussion comes from how far we have come in technological terms in the last, say, 50 years, and how it all seems to be ramping up in speed of advancement. But I suspect true AGI still requires effectively exponential advancement to get there, and never mind the exponential advancement it might lead to once created, if it ever is created.

We are still far from having a comprehensive understanding of how the brain works, and it would need that kind of knowledge before we can replicate it. It's still a long way off imo.

I suggested it might be more beneficial to learn how to utilise more of the brain's capabilities, but another thing to look at might be to improve brain/technology interfaces, to create something more in the line of cybernetics. So instead of building separate systems that think, couple human thinking more directly with artificial information storage - implants? Maybe even combine that with advancement in utilisation of the human brain capacity, either with some kind of chemical stimulants, or teaching methods, or a combination of those things.
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thx1138
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PostPosted: 23:50 - 30 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
AI still can't beat me at monopoly Laughing
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owl
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PostPosted: 00:11 - 31 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
thx1138 wrote:
AI still can't beat me at monopoly Laughing


Is that because you cheat?

HardlyDavidson wrote:
They take on some of the bias of their creators: white middle aged men in lab coats Very Happy


Well raciss
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thx1138
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PostPosted: 00:59 - 31 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
owl wrote:
thx1138 wrote:
AI still can't beat me at monopoly Laughing


Is that because you cheat?



No. Laughing But the AI that goes into most Monopoly games, is utter garbage.
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Grubscrew
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PostPosted: 07:49 - 31 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
It won't be enough. At least, not he sort of wars we have. We don't need to get rid of a few million, we need to get rid of a few BILLION.

Couldn’t agree more!
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Hetzer
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PostPosted: 08:26 - 31 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
There was a Scandinavian professor who showed, using credited research and stats, that the population will hit 11 billion and then go down and stabilise at around 8 billion over the next 50 years. His presentation was very credible and made obvious sense (obvious once he'd tabulated the figures etc).

Does AI have to be self-aware to be considered 'intelligent'? There are plenty of genius-level scientists who are barely aware.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 13:49 - 31 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
RhynoCZ wrote:
And not just that, we don't know much about those far distant objects. We only assume they could be habitable. Imaging getting there, after those years, to die right after people step out of the ship.

That being said, before we figure out how to shield people from the radiation in space and other issues, such as osteoporosis, losing muscle matter... I can't see them making any such trips. Even going to Mars with the current spacecraft technology would lead to creating bunch of cancer patients, that won't be able to move once they land on the Mars, after months of being weightless.

EDIT: Before someone starts to point things out Yes, some of the astronauts spend/t up to several months on the ISS and MIR, however, they do lose bone density and they also lose muscle matter and once they get back they can't even walk. Mind you, the ISS is in the microgravity and they do exercise every day up there. Cancer is not an issue there either, as the ISS is in the protective magnetic field of the Earth.


The flip side of this is that, as a sci writer (I think it was Stephen Baxter) pointed out: If we WERE to ever colonise another star system, it would be virtually impossible to wipe mankind out. Because that one would likely colonise two more, and so on. Hence exponential growth.
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Hetzer
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PostPosted: 14:11 - 31 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
bhinso wrote:
RhynoCZ wrote:
And not just that, we don't know much about those far distant objects. We only assume they could be habitable. Imaging getting there, after those years, to die right after people step out of the ship.

That being said, before we figure out how to shield people from the radiation in space and other issues, such as osteoporosis, losing muscle matter... I can't see them making any such trips. Even going to Mars with the current spacecraft technology would lead to creating bunch of cancer patients, that won't be able to move once they land on the Mars, after months of being weightless.

EDIT: Before someone starts to point things out Yes, some of the astronauts spend/t up to several months on the ISS and MIR, however, they do lose bone density and they also lose muscle matter and once they get back they can't even walk. Mind you, the ISS is in the microgravity and they do exercise every day up there. Cancer is not an issue there either, as the ISS is in the protective magnetic field of the Earth.


The flip side of this is that, as a sci writer (I think it was Stephen Baxter) pointed out: If we WERE to ever colonise another star system, it would be virtually impossible to wipe mankind out. Because that one would likely colonise two more, and so on. Hence exponential growth.


Anyone who thinks ET would allow us to get off this planet to start colonising other planets is fucking deranged. It would be akin to a scientist throwing open the doors of Porton Down and using the labs for a rave festival.
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 14:16 - 31 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
bhinso wrote:
The flip side of this is that, as a sci writer (I think it was Stephen Baxter) pointed out: If we WERE to ever colonise another star system, it would be virtually impossible to wipe mankind out. Because that one would likely colonise two more, and so on. Hence exponential growth.


Let's say it was technically possible. We still have a serious issue here. Every single time more advanced society discovered a less developed, simpler society, the more advanced society used its technology and knowledge to enslave and/or wipe out the less fortunate tribes.

Would we be the more advanced society, that would do that to the other species on other planets, OR would we become enslaved and/or wiped out? Thinking

Thinking of it, NASA did send a spacecraft outside of our solar system with the instructions on how to kill humans and cook them. Shocked
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MCN
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PostPosted: 17:38 - 31 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Oh Gawd.
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Grubscrew
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PostPosted: 18:51 - 31 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Mad Max days.
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hellkat
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PostPosted: 21:55 - 31 May 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
I'm very annoyed that the Greek flatmate of Orville's mum was a terribly nice but v.geeky AI guy who was elbow deep in an incomprehensible PhD in something or other.

Last time I minded Orville, he was there and I thought, "Hmmm, might get to know him, could be interesting, even if he only ever eats Uber Eats".

But the next time I minded Orville, there was a new flatmate, and apparently the Geeky Greek had accepted a job in Barcelona and buggered off.

Bugger.
I need to procure me some AI guys.
The cult of hellkat needs more AI guys.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:53 - 01 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
If you've got 3 hours to spare, this conversation, (mostly) about AI, is worth a watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5FOumrXyww

Not overly geeky, accessible, more about the morals, the dangers, the possibilities (or not).
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 12:28 - 01 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
The way I see it, even if AI will be a threat, it isn't yet. If we can't sort out climate change first, then why worry about AI? If we CAN sort out climate change, then making AI benevolent will be a piece of p*ss.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:50 - 01 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
MarJay wrote:
The way I see it, even if AI will be a threat, it isn't yet. If we can't sort out climate change first, then why worry about AI?If we CAN sort out climate change, then making AI benevolent will be a piece of p*ss.


Not necessarily, depending on the pace of innovation and advance. Technology has a habit of overtaking us - most people barely get their heads around one new development before the next is upon them. The podcast above talks about this. The actual advances always seem to be a step ahead of the control. And if we get to a point where the advancement is really large and sudden, as many predict it will be for AI, then it becomes a problem, potentially.

Look at the problems we have with internet usage currently. They are way ahead of us knowing what to do about it, and most of it wasn't predicted.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 22:50 - 01 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
MarJay wrote:
The way I see it, even if AI will be a threat, it isn't yet. If we can't sort out climate change first, then why worry about AI? If we CAN sort out climate change, then making AI benevolent will be a piece of p*ss.


We can't sort out shit, have a word with the Chinese, Indians and 'muricans.
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Old Thread Alert!

The last post was made 4 years, 323 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful?
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