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Islander
World Chat Champion

Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 20:31 - 18 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Pjay wrote:

Islander wrote:

I have a degree in geology. I understand the planetary cycles perfectly well along with stadials, glacials, interstadials and interglacials.

I'll say it again, it's the changing rate of change that is the problem here, not natural cycles caused by insolation.

I dont care if you were a professor in Geology, you don't get to skirt around the point I'm making, by making new ones up and arguing with me about those.

I have stated the earth is warming naturally as part of it's cycle. You said it isn't, I disagree.

The rate isnt that much as I have shown, but you are choosing to ignore verifiable data.

Why hasn't anyone commented on that graph? It's easily verified, it shows that we have experienced worse and sharper rises and falls, it also shows everything is pretty much normal and as expected naturally. Now of course you can take a snapshot of the last decade and point to it being bad, but why not look at historical data that shows it happening hundreds of years ago with a recovery, all when there wasn't a this industrial revolution?

And just because you happen to have a degree in Geology, doesnt mean you get a pass on being right in every instance involving climate change. It doesn't work like that. Having a degree just means youve been assessed, that doesnt mean you are smarter than someone that hasn't been tested.

You seem to have a problem with my degree. Laughing

I'm not skirting anything. I've provided data in graph and tabular format - you're welcome to choose to ignore hard data of course.

Anyway, I've emboldened the significant part of my point. But in case you skim over it again, it's the changing rate of rate of change that's the problem not the natural cycles of change of insolation. That change in rate of change is caused by a non-natural increase in greenhouse gas emission brought about by the use of fossil fuels. The data is solid on that.

Oh and just to reiterate, the natural cycle you refer to (Milankovitch cycles) have periodicities of 100,000y, 41,000y, and 23,000y respectively not 100y, 41y and 23y. It's all about the rate of change.

Deniers gonna deny though Laughing

Last edited by Islander on 20:37 - 18 Jun 2019; edited 1 time in total

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Pjay
World Chat Champion

Joined: 18 Jan 2016
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 2)

Posted: 20:35 - 18 Jun 2019 Post subject:

So what were the reasons behind the past sharp rises that I have shown data for? ____________________ struan80 - I'll go first - satisfied tick 1

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Islander
World Chat Champion

Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 20:56 - 18 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Pjay wrote:

So what were the reasons behind the past sharp rises that I have shown data for?

Which ones would you like an answer for - I'll do what I can.

I'll give you a couple though although these are minima rather than maxima. 1645-1715 was the Maunder minimum famous for the frost fairs held on the frozen Thames. The minimum in this case refers to sunspot activity and reduced insolation, Generally sunspots vary on an 11 year cycle but it seem occasionally the Sun throws a curved ball at us.

The minimum at 1883-1884 was due to the eruption of Krakatoa.

Minima and maxima relate to weather not climate, it's the mean that matters and if we zoom in we get this:

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

Again, notice the significant increase in rate of change - the data table is downloadable.

Just for clarity...

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Empirical. Evidence.

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Sister Sledge
World Chat Champion

Joined: 17 Aug 2018
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 2)

Posted: 21:00 - 18 Jun 2019 Post subject:

So a minimum was caused by a volcano? Surely the answer to global warming is to nuke a volcano when temperatures get a bit too high? ____________________ CCM 404 DS

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Riejufixing
World Chat Champion

Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 2)

Posted: 21:03 - 18 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Pjay wrote:

So what were the reasons behind the past sharp rises that I have shown data for?

The influence of Pisces in Libra modified by the conjunction of Taurus and Aries.

There you are. I have "shown data" too.

R-O-F-L-M-A-O.

PfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffT!

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chickenstrip
Super Spammer

Joined: 06 Dec 2013
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 21:07 - 18 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Sister Sledge wrote:

So a minimum was caused by a volcano?
Surely the answer to global warming is to nuke a volcano when temperatures get a bit too high?

If you want crop failure, famine, disease and death, yes Laughing

____________________
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Islander
World Chat Champion

Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 21:21 - 18 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Sister Sledge wrote:

So a minimum was caused by a volcano?
Surely the answer to global warming is to nuke a volcano when temperatures get a bit too high?

Not just any volcano - Krakatoa. It was a VEI 6 event with an estimated explosive energy of 200 megatons - four times more powerful than the biggest nuclear bomb ever detonated.

You really don't want to go there... Laughing

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Lord Percy
World Chat Champion

Joined: 03 Aug 2012
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 1)

Posted: 03:19 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Pjay wrote:

And just because you happen to have a degree in Geology, doesnt mean you get a pass on being right in every instance involving climate change. It doesn't work like that. Having a degree just means youve been assessed, that doesnt mean you are smarter than someone that hasn't been tested.

Once upon a time I would have thought the same as you. I don't know about non-science fields, but after having gone through a STEM degree myself I can tell you that there is literally no comparison between degree-educated folk and amateurs who attempt to talk as equals with them.

Degree study takes you to the pinnacle of knowledge on your chosen subject. To make a statement like you just have is a sign of your extreme ignorance in this area, I'm afraid.

Being smart and being educated are two separate things. You can have an IQ of 60 billion but still know nothing compared to the average prole who spent three years of their life undergoing intense study of a subject of their choice.

There are times when it really is best to leave it to the people who know what they're talking about.

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MarJay
But it's British!

Joined: 15 Sep 2003
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 4)

Posted: 09:55 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Pjay wrote:

This is why Anti Vaxers exist, this is why conspiracy theories exist. This is why climate change denial exists, this is why we have Brexit, this is why we have Donnie J Trump as President of the US. This is a fallacy.

You cannot educate yourself better with Google than you can with a degree in a STEM subject. If you think you can? Then you're probably not as clever as you think you are.
____________________
British beauty: Triumph Street Triple R; Loony stroker: KR1S; Track fun: GSXR750 L1; Commuter Missile: GSX-S1000F
Remember kids, bikes aren't like lego. You can't easily take a part from one bike and then fit it to another.

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Islander
World Chat Champion

Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 12:26 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

mpd72 wrote:

Islander wrote:

What's the relevance?

FWIW I've stated my profession on here a number of times in the past.

Why claim to be an expert in a field when it's clearly not what you do?
If you were an expert, why not work in that field?

Where did I claim to be an expert? Do you know what my qualifications are? Do you know what my current profession is?

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Islander
World Chat Champion

Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 12:37 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

mpd72 wrote:

Islander wrote:

Nope, as much as you'd like to spin it that way, they presented the data that was current at the time and continue to do so.

Science is funny like that, it works on empiricism and isn't afraid to change its mind when the data* requires it.

*That would be empirical data - not something someone once read on the Internet Wink

Bollocks. They're constantly telling us Armageddon is a few years ahead of us, then when we get there and fuck all changes, the move the date.

As people wise up to the great global warming swindle, the hysteria gets ramped up to keep the hard of thinking like you (with your degree in rocks) pedalling it as fact.

Degree in rocks eh? So now you're claiming to be an expert in what a science degree covers are you? Laughing

I keep reasonably current in all of my professional qualifications so hardly "hard of thinking" Rolling Eyes

Now that we've got the ad hominem nonsense out of the way, I'll reiterate.

The issue is one of change of rate of change. I've provided you with sources and data which you've chosen to ignore entirely and failed to respond to other than by diversion and dogma. It's up to you whether you believe peer reviewed, closely scrutinised, empirically derived data published by reputable scientists and organisations or derive your satisfaction from a random website that's not really subject to the same strict quality controls. Whether you believe it or not, it's happening - the evidence is there.

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Islander
World Chat Champion

Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 12:39 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

mpd72 wrote:

Random ad hominem nonsense

So, are you going to address the data in a properly argued logical manner then? Hmmm? Laughing

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chickenstrip
Super Spammer

Joined: 06 Dec 2013
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 13:49 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Lord Percy wrote:

Pjay wrote:

I'm becoming interested in how consciousness relates to physical sciences, and have looked at some studies that suggest that disbelief, or disagreement with theories and ideas is actually a defence mechanism in the brain, carried by chemical processes, along the lines of a fear response, and so is actually connected to the survival instinct.

Doesn't answer the questions of climate change Laughing

, but to me, is a far more interesting aspect of this conversation you're all having here, and in fact, of many conversations going on where "facts" are disputed Smile

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bhinso
World Chat Champion

Joined: 21 Jun 2008
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 1)

Posted: 13:53 - 19 Jun 2019 Post subject:

The concept of change of rate of change is important but difficult to get your head around. Calculus can help. For example the length of daylight varies (roughly) sinusoidally through the year, so right now we are at the top of the sine wave (June 21st). To look at the change in the length of the day, you would differentiate, which gives you a cosine wave. Today this is nearly zero, i.e. the days won't get any longer, and it will start to go negative. The maximum rate of change is at the equinoxes, Mar 21st and Sep 21st.

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Pjay
World Chat Champion

Joined: 18 Jan 2016
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 2)

Posted: 14:33 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Lord Percy wrote:

Yeah see, I dont agree.
I know idiots with degrees and I know incredibly smart people without.

I could easily gain a degree, I wrote a dissertation for someone that passed their masters. You can think of that what you will, but I know it's a fact and that shapes how I feel about degrees. They are just a confirmation of your knowledge and understanding, not a measure that you can't be fooled.
____________________
struan80 - I'll go first - satisfied tick 1

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Pjay
World Chat Champion

Joined: 18 Jan 2016
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 2)

Posted: 14:42 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Islander wrote:

Pjay wrote:

So what were the reasons behind the past sharp rises that I have shown data for?

I'll give you a couple though although these are minima rather than maxima. 1645-1715 was the Maunder minimum famous for the frost fairs held on the frozen Thames. The minimum in this case refers to sunspot activity and reduced insolation, Generally sunspots vary on an 11 year cycle but it seem occasionally the Sun throws a curved ball at us.

The minimum at 1883-1884 was due to the eruption of Krakatoa.

Empirical. Evidence.

Yes I did indeed look into those before asking the question.
Which is why I asked about the sharp rises and not the falls.

Besides, I could take a good 50 year snapshot in that graph that shows an average decline in temps, so why would I take a 20 year one recently that shows an increase, with anything but a sceptical eye?
Oh because we can use other data to show it matches our output increases of greenhouse gasses?
I don't buy it, sorry.
____________________
struan80 - I'll go first - satisfied tick 1

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chickenstrip
Super Spammer

Joined: 06 Dec 2013
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 14:43 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

bhinso wrote:

Calculus can help.

Maths!

This is why I am, and shall forever be, an idiot Laughing

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chickenstrip
Super Spammer

Joined: 06 Dec 2013
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 14:55 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

HardlyDavidson wrote:

The story so far:

As predicted, most ppl have shrugged at the A.I. thing with "not in my lifetime" or "I for one welcome our robot overlords."

I don't think the study and advancement of AI should be so easily dismissed. It may not be the thing most threatening thing to mankind, but it could lead us to a much greater understanding of the world around us as we consider the moralities and other associated problems it highlights as we progress with it. There is an interconnectedness of all sciences, and developing, or attempting to develop, AGI, may even lead to us to a better understanding of such things as climate change, and how we can better influence it for our benefit.
____________________
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Islander
World Chat Champion

Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 3)

Posted: 15:20 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Pjay wrote:

Well let's have another look at the HADCET data set that your graph was generated from. This is the full set from the Met Office - the dataset is downloadable as always:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif

Reference page is:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

That shows a bit of a different story doesn't it?

And the other was HADCRUT4. Again, from the Met Office - and the dataset for this is also downloadable:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/web_figures/anomalies.png

Reference page is:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/

Again, it tells a different tale.

Believe or not, the data doesn't care.

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Pjay
World Chat Champion

Joined: 18 Jan 2016
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 2)

Posted: 15:27 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

Islander wrote:

Believe or not, the data doesn't care.

That shows quite a small temp increase, which MPD pointed out and was shot down in flames for suggesting.
Data can be cherry picked, which is the basis for my point:

The world doesn't care.
____________________
struan80 - I'll go first - satisfied tick 1

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Easy-X
Super Spammer

Joined: 08 Mar 2019
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 2)

Posted: 16:11 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

LMAO! You all take yourselves sooooo seriously over Climate Change and yet:

a) it won't literally kill us tomorrow

b) we can't do anything about it anyway!

Quote:

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, Courage to change the things I can, And wisdom to know the difference.

____________________
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Riejufixing
World Chat Champion

Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma : Excellent Karma (Level 2)

Posted: 16:44 - 19 Jun 2019

Post subject:

HardlyDavidson wrote:

LMAO! You all take yourselves sooooo seriously over Climate Change and yet:

b) we can't do anything about it anyway!

Tell that to governments worldwide which are investing very heavily in emission reductions.

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