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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 22:56 - 01 Jun 2019    Post subject: Re: We'll all be dead soon... Reply with quote
HardlyDavidson wrote:
...as in the Human Race. Scared? You should be, but you're not!


Pfft. I'd be more pissed about having to live in 29C heat without aircon. Laughing
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 03:33 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
AI is miles and miles and miles away.

A mate of mine has been working at a company producing self-driving cars. They don't even have a prototype yet. They're still stuck at trying to make it follow roads.

This laughably trivial task for humans is proving to be almost impossible for a machine to do.

The company aim to have their first model ready by 2025. And that's just car that can use cameras and sensors to safely follow roads and react to danger.

AI is miles away. To be honest I don't expect it to ever become a real thing. There are too many fundamental blocks, mainly in the domain of nanotechnology and quantum mechanics, which will prevent humans from ever creating a machine with true sentience.
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 03:37 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
As for climate change, I'm amazed there are still divs who think it's a myth.

Instead of picking out hysterical news articles and Al Gore quotes, just look to the scientists themselves. There's an absolute consensus on the issue of climate change and global warming. The fact that news companies pick up on minor details and spin them into overblown and untrue scare stories is not the scientists' fault.
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MCN
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PostPosted: 03:58 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Lord Percy wrote:
As for climate change, I'm amazed there are still divs who think it's a myth.

Instead of picking out hysterical news articles and Al Gore quotes, just look to the scientists themselves. There's an absolute consensus on the issue of climate change and global warming. The fact that news companies pick up on minor details and spin them into overblown and untrue scare stories is not the scientists' fault.


If people can continue to ignore hectares of the planet's air conditioning system being cut down every day then climate change won't be accepted until it's too late.
We are very near a tipping point.
The last mass extinction was attributed to smoke blocking the sun etc.
Removing major components of the oxygen CO2 H20 cycle is a real problem.

Am Gore was not too far off the mark. Pity he was slammed as a stir master. The evidence he put up has not gone away. 😯
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 08:59 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Climate change is natural and has happened since forever. It goes hot, it goes cold. Not seasons - I'm talking long regular events.

Sure we're doing the planet no favours but then again nor are volcanic events.
I actually think an Ice Age is looming.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 10:02 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Lord Percy wrote:
AI is miles and miles and miles away.

A mate of mine has been working at a company producing self-driving cars. They don't even have a prototype yet. They're still stuck at trying to make it follow roads.

This laughably trivial task for humans is proving to be almost impossible for a machine to do.


Maybe that's more a reflection of how bad your mate's company is at it Razz

To do it, attention needs to be paid to more than just the vehicle itself, but also the infrastructure of the roads. Clear lane markings for sensors to pick up on are important for one thing. The real difficulty comes in how other road users - pedestrians, cyclists*, other car drivers - behave. Simple things like smart traffic signals need to be in the mix too. But the commitment and investment from government would need to be there as well, on a very large scale.

*I think it will require removing these from the mix - separating them completely from one another - pedestrians and cyclists using an entirely separate infrastructure. Otherwise, the push towards cycling and healthier lifestyles will continue to clash with self-driving vehicles. I just can't see the two being compatible.
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Last edited by chickenstrip on 11:55 - 02 Jun 2019; edited 2 times in total
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wr6133
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PostPosted: 10:59 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip YFPOS wrote:
But the commitment and investment from government would need to be there as well, on a very large scale.


This will be the sticking point, they can't even get basic road repairs done.

Bits of self driving systems are already making their way in. My favourite is the one that throws the anchors out if it thinks a pedestrian is about to be struck...... the amount of emergency braking events I used to have to watch from truck dashcam due to this feature was lolworthy, it kept getting set off by road signs that were a little bit bent toward the carriageway.
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 11:20 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 wrote:
Lord Percy wrote:
As for climate change, I'm amazed there are still divs who think it's a myth.



I'm amazed there are still divs who fall for the vastly over estimated levels of change, which "scientists" with a vested interest in creating climate panic, have been falsely broadcasting and being proved wrong for decades.


Lads, there are still people who believe in whatever their religion says and what is worse, these beliefs influence even their law systems.

Abortion and marital laws are the most obvious.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:48 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
RhynoCZ wrote:


Lads, there are still people who believe in whatever their religion says and what is worse, these beliefs influence even their law systems.

Abortion and marital laws are the most obvious.


I think the western world is slowly moving to remove these dogmas from our laws though. Even Ireland is beginning to crack on this. You can't expect something that has been enshrined in law and culture for hundreds of years to change overnight.

I can see this thread is going to be very difficult to keep on topic. The OP even put the subject in bold letters in his initial post Rolling Eyes
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 12:23 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Self driving cars? Remember that rule - if you can think of it, it's been done? yes - self driving pron exists!!
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 13:00 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
wr6133 wrote:
chickenstrip YFPOS wrote:
But the commitment and investment from government would need to be there as well, on a very large scale.


This will be the sticking point, they can't even get basic road repairs done.


It's way more than this. Firstly, the people developing the technology have to get it to a point, without government and public commitment, to show it is a very feasible and useful way to go. Hard enough, when I don't actually hear the general public crying out for self-driving cars. A new rail line seems to be controversial enough.

Then, the public and governments have to be persuaded that it is indeed important enough to merit the investment that will be required. It will mean virtually tearing down the current roads system and starting from scratch. And then the maintenance to keep it all working efficiently.

If the trend in self-driving vehicles is to continue with any significance, it will actually probably be a piecemeal thing. I could possibly see small out-of-town areas being restructured to help enable it, and depending on how successful that is, the investment slowly spreading. Many, many years to a fully self-driving-compatible roads network.
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 13:16 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Sister Sledge wrote:
Self driving cars? Remember that rule - if you can think of it, it's been done? yes - self driving pron exists!!


Daimler AG did test autonomous driving in the mid 90's. Their w140 went from Munich to Copenhagen and back, doing 185 km/h on the Autobahn, overtaking other road users. We are talking 120-133 MHz Pentium era. Not even to mention what hi-res real time feed digital cameras were, at that time.

They didn't carry on with the project for moral reasons though. The need for the last decision being made always by the human operator and nothing else in the chain of events is what buried the idea. Then Elon Musk came along and turned every Tesla driver/owner into a beta tester. That is something a renowned car manufacturer would never do, which is also one of the limitations of AI in car industry.

Also, what would be the legal implications if AI, for instance driving your car, would run over a pedestrian, or killed the driver in an effort to avoid collision with the said pedestrian?
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 13:28 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
RhynoCZ wrote:

Also, what would be the legal implications if AI, for instance driving your car, would run over a pedestrian, or killed the driver in an effort to avoid collision with the said pedestrian?


I don't think that's really any different to how a modern car can kill you, say by a brake failure, or an electronic malfunction that causes a fire etc. There have been recalls to fix potentially life-threatening problems.

AI cars would have to demonstrate that they are in fact safer than humans driving - which seems to me to be the point, although as yet, there is no evidence to show that this will definitely be the case. At the moment, it seems to be more a case of "can we do it?", a drive for exploring the necessary technology, rather than "do we need to do it?"

But as I said, I think you would need a transport infrastructure that keeps pedestrians and cyclists on a separate system.

Edit: it would all likely put paid to motorcycling entirely Shocked
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 14:02 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
I am surprised at some of the points coming out in this thread. Ordinarily we can consider the US as being behind in most things ( despite their insistence that they are the greatest at everything and then some). Internet speeds here are seem to be on par with Bulgaria, I still get paid with cheques, women’s rights are being rolled back and a medieval religiosity pervades everything.
But, back on topic, a section of local road was closed for testing an AI lorry, this technology is rolling out quite quickly, presumably so that everyone can get back to the business of splurging their ugly mugs doing duck poses on arsefake whilst driving ASAP. Someone building a high rise recently has designed it to accommodate flying cars...
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 14:37 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
mentalboy wrote:
Someone building a high rise recently has designed it to accommodate flying cars...


Propelled how?
Elon Musk seems to think that it makes more sense to go multi-level underground. Although so far, his project seems to consist of digging a hole in the ground, since, as he puts it, "a hole is better than no hole" - make of that what you will* Eh? Confused Thinking Laughing

*oh shit, did I just say that on BCF?! Shocked Laughing
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 15:35 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
mentalboy wrote:
I am surprised at some of the points coming out in this thread. Ordinarily we can consider the US as being behind in most things ( despite their insistence that they are the greatest at everything and then some). Internet speeds here are seem to be on par with Bulgaria, I still get paid with cheques, women’s rights are being rolled back and a medieval religiosity pervades everything.
But, back on topic, a section of local road was closed for testing an AI lorry, this technology is rolling out quite quickly, presumably so that everyone can get back to the business of splurging their ugly mugs doing duck poses on arsefake whilst driving ASAP. Someone building a high rise recently has designed it to accommodate flying cars...


You have huge distances to cross from city to city though. If the driver can out his feet up while crossing 500/1000 miles of desert it will leave him fresh for whenever he gets to his destination. We don't have that problem compared to anything like you do.

Also we seem to embrace trains way more than you do. It seems to be either car or plane for the Americans.
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 17:10 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip YFPOS wrote:

It will mean virtually tearing down the current roads system and starting from scratch. And then the maintenance to keep it all working efficiently.

If the trend in self-driving vehicles is to continue with any significance, it will actually probably be a piecemeal thing. I could possibly see small out-of-town areas being restructured to help enable it, and depending on how successful that is, the investment slowly spreading. Many, many years to a fully self-driving-compatible roads network.


No this isn't right. You're talking about the comparatively easy "self-driving" cars that follow guides and sensors that are laid out for them, creating a sort of invisible track to follow.

Real self-driving, which is still miles and miles away, is aiming to have cars that can drive on any road, without any pre-recorded routes or maps to follow. The point is that these cars should be able to drive freely on standard roads, without any upgrades to infrastructure.

It uses a technology called SLAM vision - Simultaneous Localisation And Mapping - which is done in real-time by sensors on the car. Examples below:

https://abhijitkundu.info/pics/icra-thumbnail.jpg

https://vision.in.tum.de/_media/spezial/bib/engel2015_stereo_lsdslam.png

https://www.luigifreda.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/OKVIS_Open_Keyframe_based_Visual_Inertial_SLAM.gif

https://cn.bing.com/th?id=OIP.jwtR4EyPgv8aeTxSKigLsgHaFt&pid=Api&rs=1&p=0

The camera uses as-yet incomplete computer vision algorithms to work out exactly what its surroundings are like. Imagine writing software to analyze every single point in an image and compare those points with nearby points, to figure out what 3D physical information can be discerned - which things are near, which things are far, and which things are moving - it's an almost impossible task.


My aforementioned mate has shown me the stuff he was working on. As it stands, they can't even get a car to safely recognise when it's being driven manually round the block. Using the manually inputted data (so the car wasn't even self-driving), the algorithms try to figure out where the road is and where the car should drive. The resulting plots are totally unusable. They correctly trace the shape of the road layout - sometimes - but the path is always extremely jagged and off-track. Ironing out these issues is nigh-on impossible because every road is teeming with random data points that need to be understood.


These guys are at the cutting edge of research, they spend half their time writing code and half their time reading the latest maths/physics/computing research papers to see what new avenues they can try. They aim to have a prototype ready by 2025.

This is just a device designed to recognise and follow roads, never mind full sentience and autonomous thinking. A.I. is definitely still a very very very long way off!
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 17:15 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Sister Sledge wrote:
Climate change is natural and has happened since forever. It goes hot, it goes cold. Not seasons - I'm talking long regular events.

Sure we're doing the planet no favours but then again nor are volcanic events.
I actually think an Ice Age is looming.


The argument that earth used to be colder/hotter at some distant point in the past is completely irrelevant here.

The climate always changes, but never in the history of the planet has life been able to withstand changes happening as fast as they currently are.

Quote:
I actually think an Ice Age is looming.


Please explain.
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 17:25 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 wrote:
Lord Percy wrote:
As for climate change, I'm amazed there are still divs who think it's a myth.



I'm amazed there are still divs who fall for the vastly over estimated levels of change, which "scientists" with a vested interest in creating climate panic, have been falsely broadcasting and being proved wrong for decades.


Funny how "science" is a perfectly acceptable thing when it suits you - do you enjoy your modern technology and advanced healthcare? - but when it comes to climate science the whole thing is apparently a corrupt agenda propped up by fakers with an ulterior motive.

Thinking
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:45 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Lord Percy wrote:


No this isn't right. You're talking about the comparatively easy "self-driving" cars that follow guides and sensors that are laid out for them, creating a sort of invisible track to follow.

Real self-driving, which is still miles and miles away, is aiming to have cars that can drive on any road, without any pre-recorded routes or maps to follow. The point is that these cars should be able to drive freely on standard roads, without any upgrades to infrastructure.


Interesting stuff. But doesn't any journey from A to B require a pre-recorded route or map, even if it's only in the driver's head? There is no point to just aimlessly driving around, or at least, it's not what most car journeys are about?

At the moment, after what you have described, it seems to me that there is more than one possible way to go about this, and I'm not clear on what your mate's company is really looking to achieve.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 19:36 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Just to flip it the other way: when NASA was asked why they risk astronauts' lives on space missions the reply was:

Quote:
Man is the lowest-cost, 150-pound, nonlinear, all-purpose computer system which can be mass-produced by unskilled labour.


(my emphasis)

If we get bogged down with trying to make "Human 2.0" then yes, it's a long way off but back to my original point: we will get there and it's not a case of if but when.

And this is Sam Harris' point that no one seems worried. And yet ppl are shitting bricks that they won't get another research grant over climate change; to the point where ppl are having dangerous ideas about terra-forming Shocked
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 19:42 - 02 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Lord Percy with the ice age and how it's divided up (interglacials etc) we're coming on line for another Ice Age. That is, 90k years it takes for the ice sheets to grow and the 10k years for them to shrink. Are we not at 11700 years of shrink now?
I truly think that mans best efforts to heat the planet will be no match for nature when it happens. Nature always wins.

The other stuff?
We've done a fair bit of damage but the true 'damage' to the planets levels of greenhouse gases is coming from natural sources. Volcanoes are nasty things when they let loose.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 13:59 - 03 Jun 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
I think if I remember my GCSE Geography correctly, we are already in the middle of an Ice Age. We just happen to be in one of the 'Interglacial Periods'
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