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End of the United Kingdom?

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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 07:34 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: End of the United Kingdom? Reply with quote

SNP dominated Scotland, and their platform has always been based on independence.

Scotland also voted more strongly in favour in remain, yet they are being Brexited along with everyone else.

#IndyRef2 is already doing the rounds.

Thoughts?
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redeem ouzzer
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PostPosted: 07:49 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not everyone who voted SNP wants independence.

It’s almost worth letting the little jock fucker have her referendum in the hope she ends up with egg on her face.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 07:51 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

In Johnson's WA it already becomes a Partially United Kingdom, with NI behind a customs border.

NI unionist vote also strengthened, on top of SNP landslide.

A lot depends on how destructive Brexit will be. If the downturn will be possible to mask by presence of some anaemic growth (pretty much like now), they may sit still; there's a chance of that now that Johnson's majority doesn't depend on Baker's circus. However if things go truly Strong and Stable, then it won't be long before they'll act on the basis that it's Little England that dragged them down.
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 10:10 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

We need more information from actual Scottish people living a real life there and not from politicians spouting what they claim is wanted. Just what do Scottish people want?
I'm not that far from Scotland and even I don't know!
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andys675
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PostPosted: 12:53 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't see the point, the Scots that want to leave think they can keep sucking off the teat of the EU, but without Britain's money the EU will be fucked, and other countries could follow our lead
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 12:58 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most Englishmen couldn't give a rats arse if NI was donated to Eire. Problem is despite all the unified Ireland rhetoric they don't want it because they would get all the sh1t from the Unionists we get from the Republicans now.

Scotland? You think brexit is difficult, They have to take their share of the national debt. They will need to join the EU to suck on the Euro teat rather than the English one but Spain won't let them in because Catalonia.

They will return to being a 3rd world country of gingers wearing skirts and raiding across the border so we will have to invade them, give them a good kicking and then run them as a subservient colony. Oh yes, and hang, draw and quarter Wee Willie Kranky. Thumbs Up
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 13:08 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's complicated in Scotland, always has been. Here's a few factors as I see them. How you put them together to get an answer is the rub.

Wee Nikki is not well liked in Scotland. While many of their policies surrounding things like tuition fees and prescription charges are well liked. Other policies are seen as too much state meddling, particularly when they start trying to control what happens inside the family and the home.

However many Scots do want independance. Probably around half. A hardcore but pretty significant number of them want independance at any cost. So they voted for the SNP because they are the only people offering that.

That hardcore of pro independance Scots seem to me to be pretty ambivalent about the EU. However they are aware that Scotland voting remain while the UK comes out is a major lever for a second independance referrendum. So they adopt a vocal pro-EU stance they don't really believe in.

Many Scots hold a Conservative political view but will never forgive the Tory party for what they did with the poll tax. As such, they will never vote for the Tories. Equally, the current labour crowd has gone too far left for them to be comfortable with it. So they need a party which is more centre then Labour, isn't Tory and yet wil still have some political clout at Westminster.

The above would seem to be natural Lib Dem territory. However they are percieved as lacking that clout and being far too fluffy and indecisive, trying to please everyone and succeeding with no one. They also didn't do themselves any favours by getting into bed with the tories in a coalition government where they are percieved as having sold out, promising much and delivering almost none of it.

Scots are cannny with who they vote for. They could see that there was going to be a Tory majority. They were never gong to support that. So whoever was returned from Scotland was going to be a small voice in a big room. The lib dems would be stood at the back wringing their hands. Labour would be spouting gibberish along party lines rather than representing Scotland. The SNP have shown that they can speak loudly and speak up for Scotland. Even if they often "speak shite", they are hard to ignore, they disrupt and represent and keep Scotland in the debate.

Many Scots would like to see an independant Scotland but would not want to have the SNP in charge of setting it up. I think this really does supress the pro-independance vote and I think cost them an "aye" vote in the last one.

There is a void in Scotland for a party which is slightly right of centre, pro-independance (but that not being their reason d'etre ), broadly neutral on the EU front (with a policy of wait and see what the Scottish people want in the event of independance), having slightly more state interference than tories but less than the SNP.

In short, the SNP suits the vehemently pro-independance lobby which gives them an automatic broad base of support, even if they were running around with their underpants on their head. The remainder of the vote is made up of people who default to them because they don't feel the other parties are a good option.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 14:26 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Always going to happen ever since devolution, would we even notice the change?
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 14:45 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the same way as the pre election polls showed JC gaining ground though...

Currently, in the real world - the vast majority of Scots want independence now.

An indyref now I would expect to be something like 60-75% pro independence.
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 15:22 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm Scottish, and talk regularly with a variety of Scots.

From self employed drive jet washers - up to my cousin who is an NHS doctor, with a variety of retired people in between etc.

So yes, it's a guess. Because I haven't interviewed every person in Scotland Rolling Eyes
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 15:25 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
Currently, in the real world - the vast majority of Scots want independence now.

An indyref now I would expect to be something like 60-75% pro independence.

Wouldn't that be reflected in the snp's vote?
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 15:28 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

You'd think wouldn't you.

I can only comment on real world conversations with real Scots. I can't explain the SNP percentage as all the previously mentioned Scots all voted SNP.
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 15:38 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
I'm Scottish, and talk regularly with a variety of Scots.


You can't base an entire country upon the handful of people you meet.
If 75% of Scots really wanted independence, why did only 45% vote for the party who are the only ones pushing for it?


I can do whatever I want thanks. 👍 🤣

I'd assume it's because some people that want independence want other things slightly more and voted that way? It's not a huge leap.

The SNP numbers are up 8% in this election - that's an increase.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 15:43 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

God, could you imagine the PC wailing and gnashing of teeth if we got rid of all the little nations and flew the St. Georges cross as our national flag.

They would have an apoplectic seizure. 'But it's RACIST'. Would be worth it just to see the meltdown. Twisted Evil
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 15:59 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
You'd think wouldn't you.

I can only comment on real world conversations with real Scots. I can't explain the SNP percentage as all the previously mentioned Scots all voted SNP.


I was interested by the percentages, not just for this election, but ones for the last 20 years or so. Here are the percentages for the snp vote in the last few elections:

2019 45.0%
2017 36.9%
2015 50.0%
2010 42.0%
2005 39.5%
2001 43.9%
1997 45.6%
1992 39.0%

Oops, sorry: source: wikipedia.
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 16:24 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

And the sky is blue and the clouds are white.

You just like argueing for the sake of it don't you?
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Pete.
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PostPosted: 16:31 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lets have a referendum, but first lets dump all our remaining
out of service expensive-to-decomission nuclear subs off at Faslane just in case Smile
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 16:37 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
And the sky is blue and the clouds are white.

You just like argueing for the sake of it don't you?
🤣


It's called debate. That's the whole point of this forum.


There's nothing to debate on this though. There is only one point of fact - the % vote for SNP

after that it's just opinion.

And for some reason you think you know enough from that one number to be able to tell a Scot how his fellow Scots would vote in another indyref.

Yes I don't know EVERY Scot. But I guarantee I meet more per week than you do 🤣
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:31 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since Scotland is currently a part of the UK, and its leaving the UK would presumably have some effect on the rest of the Union, an independence referendum should be open to ALL of the UK.
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 17:42 - 14 Dec 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
Since Scotland is currently a part of the UK, and its leaving the UK would presumably have some effect on the rest of the Union, an independence referendum should be open to ALL of the UK.


This I agree with 👍
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