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2035 ban on petrol and diesel [blank]

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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 12:20 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: 2035 ban on petrol and diesel [blank] Reply with quote

Every story I read uses "vehicle" "car" "van" almost interchangeably. Like there are only 4-wheel vehicles on the road Rolling Eyes Even some of the motorcycle press are confused as to whether the ban affects 2-wheeled vehicles.

Apparently some study in Belgium reckons that if only 10% of the cars in a city were replaced by scooters and bikes pollution would drop by 40% just down to better traffic flow.

Here's hoping for pragmatism over ideology Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 13:22 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Problem is while small bikes and scooters would be fine they won't have the political drive to ban cars and not motorbikes.

The powers that be have bought into the electric vehicle. The car manufacturers have bought into the electric vehicle therefore the electric vehicle is the holy grail of the green revolution.

There are so many things they can do but they won't do the most important, Cheap/free good public transport in all cities and cheap(er) trains would cut the use of the car but do they want to or do they like the congestion charge or the ULEZ charge too much?

Look at all the other cities - free money, lets charge the car in the name of being green but no free park and ride. No free trams and buses.

Money money money
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 13:30 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

What you rather is taxed instead?
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 13:33 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

My only surprise is that they've only brought it forward to 2035 not 2030, oh, and that they've finally included hybrids at last. To be fair it's largely academic, in 15 years time there will be relatively few fossil fueled vehicles still sold anyhow, with or without a ban. Also, at somepoint we will hit a tipping point, at which it will be economically unviable for traditional 'petrol' stations to trade, as the demand for fossil fuels won't be a sustainable level, thus hastening the demise of fossil fueled vehicles.

Personally, though, I think setting a cut off date, could be counter productive, and as the time gets closer, the number of 'older' more polluting cars will remain on the road, as the value of 2nd cars drop, making it less of a financial incentive to buy new and trade up.
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Last edited by linuxyeti on 13:36 - 04 Feb 2020; edited 1 time in total
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 13:34 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
What you rather is taxed instead?


Nobwipe
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 13:43 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

linuxyeti wrote:
My only surprise is that they've only brought it forward to 2035 not 2030, oh, and that they've finally included hybrids at last. To be fair it's largely academic, in 15 years time there will be relatively few fossil fueled vehicles still sold anyhow, with or without a ban. Also, at somepoint we will hit a tipping point, at which it will be economically unviable for traditional 'petrol' stations to trade, as the demand for fossil fuels won't be a sustainable level, thus hastening the demise of fossil fueled vehicles.

Personally, though, I think setting a cut off date, could be counter productive, and as the time gets closer, the number of 'older' more polluting cars will remain on the road, as the value of 2nd cars drop, making it less of a financial incentive to buy new and trade up.


I'm not convinced and neither is the car buying public yet.

Electric car sales UK: 2019 sees 144% rise in demand.

Sounds wonderful, until you read the next sentence....

Strong electric car sales in December drives total market share up to 1.6% for 2019

But while I'm still not convinced, whatever will be will be etc. If I'm still moving around outside a care home by 2035 I'll be more worried about fuel for my boat. You can't plug in where there are no plugs.
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 14:05 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:


I'm not convinced and neither is the car buying public yet.

Electric car sales UK: 2019 sees 144% rise in demand.

Sounds wonderful, until you read the next sentence....

Strong electric car sales in December drives total market share up to 1.6% for 2019

But while I'm still not convinced, whatever will be will be etc. If I'm still moving around outside a care home by 2035 I'll be more worried about fuel for my boat. You can't plug in where there are no plugs.


Yes, and those figures are on, what is still currently a small range of vehicles, the number of electric vehicles from differing manufacturers are on the increase. The missus has gone for a hybrid this time, in 3 years time, it will almost be guaranteed to be electric, likewise, when I chenge my car in 2 to 3 years time or so, it will be for electric. Even electric bikes are getting close enough to having the range I need to get to and from the office on a single charge (~130 miles, now that the office has moved to a different part of Leicester, motorway mainly). Personally I'll be keeping an eye on the MG ZS EV, test driven one already, and it's a lovely car to drive, much nicer than the Leaf and Zoe, I've already driven.
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ThunderGuts
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PostPosted: 14:19 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the topic of electric cars, the only thing holding me back these days is I periodically do long journeys into remote corners of Scotland (probably half of my low annual mileage is doing such things). In all other respects I think they're ace; the latest Leaf is a proper car and is relatively affordable to lease (and please don't buy one; if new tech comes along making range increase, old ones will plummet in value- leasing avoids that risk as you know where your payments are going to be at). Even a Tesla Model 3 isn't outrageous compared with the equivalent fossil fuel cars, although it's not within my budget (even if it was, the range problems still exist).

The biggest obstacle I see is charging (still!). In reality the "hyperfast charging points" are not actually the biggest issue; probably half of cars on the road, perhaps more, could get by with a 100 mile range in which case the infrastructure is needed for workplace car parks, public car parks and a solution for those who don't have drives at home.

It's a case of market pressure I suspect; as fossil fuels become scarcer and more expensive, pressure on electric cars will increase as will demand to provide for them. I wouldn't be surprised if electric car manufacturers even start thinking about franchising the infrastructure.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 14:25 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to the Committee on Climate Change's "Net Zero Technical Report", the sale of new motorbikes using fossil fuel is in line to be banned after 2035.
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SpeedyCBR1100
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PostPosted: 14:34 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I live on a road on which very few houses have their own parking. A consequence of that is that few people can park outside their own houses, indeed latecomers are forced to park up to 400 yards away.

In these circumstances, how do people charge their cars? Do they have to leave home for work early and try to get a charge at a local garage, the nearest of which is over 2 miles away?

I've often thought that electric vehicles are not the answer. If we could solve the problems of hydrogen storage, creating a viable fuel cell, then we'd be using the most plentiful element in the universe. Current garages could be exchange points and the waste products would primarily be water, water vapor and a small amount of nitrogen oxides.

Would the government be able to tax air we breath?
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 14:36 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I take it then we officially don't know? (Whether bikes are included in the cut-off.)

What I find disappointing is the lack of simple strategy. "WE MUST GO ELECTRIC!!!" why? Hydrogen? Natural Gas? Better exhaust systems. Loads of life left in ICE if we could be botherd.

"WE MUST GO ELECTRIC!!!" why not go for a light touch like heading off the pointless trend in large SUVs that never go off road and just waste fuel.

"WE MUST GO ELECTRIC!!!" and this will solve all the parking issue in cities? If anything it'll be much, much worse as with even the best will in the world you can't have charging points for every road side bay or multistory space.

Hey! Here's an idea: encourage people to ride bikes that take up what? a quarter of the parking space of a car? Parking problems solved, pollution problems solved, more productivity as people get to work easier...

People crying about problems that could have been headed off 50 years ago with merely a change in emphasis about road transport. (And without even getting into decent public transport!)
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 14:38 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
According to the Committee on Climate Change's "Net Zero Technical Report", the sale of new motorbikes using fossil fuel is in line to be banned after 2035.


Yes, we know, but as I said it's a mute point, even if motorbikes were given an exception, there won't be enough petrol stations left to get petrol at over time. There aren't enough petrol motorbikes alone to make petro stations a commercially viable proposition. So, whilst Harley owners will be ok, anybody who actually has a bike to use, will have to go electric Laughing Laughing
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 14:40 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

SpeedyCBR1100 wrote:
I live on a road on which very few houses have their own parking. A consequence of that is that few people can park outside their own houses, indeed latecomers are forced to park up to 400 yards away.

In these circumstances, how do people charge their cars? Do they have to leave home for work early and try to get a charge at a local garage, the nearest of which is over 2 miles away?

I've often thought that electric vehicles are not the answer. If we could solve the problems of hydrogen storage, creating a viable fuel cell, then we'd be using the most plentiful element in the universe. Current garages could be exchange points and the waste products would primarily be water, water vapor and a small amount of nitrogen oxides.

Would the government be able to tax air we breath?


Plenty of time for on street charging stations, already quite a few popping up in this area, not to mention, supermarkets etc.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 14:47 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

SpeedyCBR1100 wrote:
I live on a road on which very few houses have their own parking. A consequence of that is that few people can park outside their own houses, indeed latecomers are forced to park up to 400 yards away.

In these circumstances, how do people charge their cars? Do they have to leave home for work early and try to get a charge at a local garage, the nearest of which is over 2 miles away?

I've often thought that electric vehicles are not the answer. If we could solve the problems of hydrogen storage, creating a viable fuel cell, then we'd be using the most plentiful element in the universe. Current garages could be exchange points and the waste products would primarily be water, water vapor and a small amount of nitrogen oxides.

Would the government be able to tax air we breath?


From the Government -

I'm very sorry to have to inform you that if you can't afford a house with a drive, you can't have an electric car.

However if you can afford the parking fees, your local council will issue you with a permit to park outside your own house for £500 a year.

Please also note trailing electrical leads across the pavement is not allowed but we can put in an electric charging post for £10000 down and a rental of £50 a week. This electric will be supplied by the council and subject to a 50% surcharge.

Please note if you cannot afford this you are still allowed an electric bike as long as you can carry it into your house/flat. If you can't, tough titty.

Signed Your caring sharing MP. xxx

(Which is another way of saying we have no isea what to do in your case.)
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 14:49 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
I take it then we officially don't know? (Whether bikes are included in the cut-off.)

What I find disappointing is the lack of simple strategy. "WE MUST GO ELECTRIC!!!" why? Hydrogen? Natural Gas? Better exhaust systems. Loads of life left in ICE if we could be botherd.



Even hydrogen fuel exhaust, predominently water vapour, has a climate warming effect, just doesn't persist as long as carbon, none of the other choices you mention are renewable or low emission.

Easy-X wrote:

"WE MUST GO ELECTRIC!!!" why not go for a light touch like heading off the pointless trend in large SUVs that never go off road and just waste fuel.


Doesn't really make that much difference really.

Easy-X wrote:

"WE MUST GO ELECTRIC!!!" and this will solve all the parking issue in cities? If anything it'll be much, much worse as with even the best will in the world you can't have charging points for every road side bay or multistory space.



In cities why would you need to? the vast majority of users wouldn't use up in single charge in a week, let alone a day.

Easy-X wrote:

Hey! Here's an idea: encourage people to ride bikes that take up what? a quarter of the parking space of a car? Parking problems solved, pollution problems solved, more productivity as people get to work easier...

People crying about problems that could have been headed off 50 years ago with merely a change in emphasis about road transport. (And without even getting into decent public transport!)


Encourage all you like, however, there are too many who are genuinely scared of 2 wheel commuting, and, then, you only have to look on here, a forum specifically for riders? How many on here, won't ride because, well, you can't possibly ride between October & March, or, those who constantly moan about it being cold and won't ride at the first hint of frost, never mind rain and snow, or even wind..
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BTTD
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PostPosted: 14:50 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

linuxyeti wrote:
Plenty of time for on street charging stations, already quite a few popping up in this area, not to mention, supermarkets etc.


Where is all the electricity going to come from?
There's a big difference in adding a few charging stations at the supermarket to charging the entire car park. The infrastructure to deliver that kind of power (form where?) is going to be significant. New substations, supply lines.

The most environmentally beneficial strategy is actually to continue using older vehicles and reduce the amount of new production and consumption. Unfortunately that doesn't prop up manufacturing or make industrialists more money.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 15:13 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Power companies will be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of selling all that leccy.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 15:21 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ribenapigeon wrote:
Power companies will be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of selling all that leccy.


And Shell and co. will be rubbing their hands with glee selling all those hydrocarbon fuels to power the electrical generators.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 16:16 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

This makes interesting reading. Particularly the comparative pollutants from LPG, petrol, diesel, and electric when measured from source to road.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12544-017-0263-7

https://www.bikechatforums.com/download.php?id=103091
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 16:25 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

What?! Are you saying electric isn't the solution to all of our problems?

Blasphemy! Burn* the heretic!!!

*Fuck! no that won't work Sad

Blasphemy! Drown* the witch!!!

*If someone could just check the CO2 emissions from drowning that would be super helpful, thanx
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 16:39 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
I take it then we officially don't know? (Whether bikes are included in the cut-off.)

According to the Committee on Climate Change's "Net Zero Technical Report", the sale of new motorbikes using fossil fuel is in line to be banned after 2035. Sales of new machines here will be banned.

Easy-X wrote:
What I find disappointing is the lack of simple strategy. "WE MUST GO ELECTRIC!!!" why? Hydrogen? Natural Gas? Better exhaust systems. Loads of life left in ICE if we could be botherd.

Hydrogen will be OK, natural gas won't.
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ThunderGuts
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PostPosted: 16:45 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hydrogen may well be plentiful, but extracting it into a useful source is a whole other ball game. It takes more energy to convert the most typical source of hydrogen, water, than the energy you get back from burning it (unsurprising). That's without taking into account the mechanism of actually capturing the energy from the hydrogen again.

The key to efficiency is to make as few changes of energy as possible from source to application; with a hydrogen car, you're probably looking at (assuming wind power as a starting point);

Mechanical (wind turning turbine) > Electrical > Hydrogen (production) > Electricity (and waste heat from the fuel cell) > Mechanical (propelling the car)

On every change you lose energy, there's no way around that. If you could make electric cars work, and batteries efficient, you can take out two energy change steps - it's got to be better as a life cycle of a "tank" of energy, but in terms of the end user, they won't necessarily see these benefits and there are still range and infrastructure problems to deal with . . .

The true solution is to maximise the efficiency of energy transfer from source to propelling the vehicle, but there's some serious tech development needed to get there. Alternatively if we can harness nuclear fusion there's arguably so much available energy we don't have to worry about the losses
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 16:54 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

linuxyeti wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
According to the Committee on Climate Change's "Net Zero Technical Report", the sale of new motorbikes using fossil fuel is in line to be banned after 2035.


Yes, we know, but as I said it's a mute point, even if motorbikes were given an exception, there won't be enough petrol stations left to get petrol at over time. There aren't enough petrol motorbikes alone to make petro stations a commercially viable proposition. So, whilst Harley owners will be ok, anybody who actually has a bike to use, will have to go electric Laughing Laughing

Using the "we" construct doesn't help any arguments you might want to make.

Motorbikes won't be excepted unless there's a change from the government's current position.

The same thing will, I expect, happen to filling stations in general as happened to "filling stations selling leaded petrol" in the past. They will disappear. That will leave people who want to run "old stuff" a problem to be resolved. At the moment, it seems you can store 275 litres of petrol at home, IF you have suitable storage, AND you must notify someone, hang on.... yes, the "Petroleum Enforcing Authority" for your area (in my case it's the environmental health dept of the council). If you want to store more you have to have a licence from them.

So I think it will be deliveries as per central heating fuel in future. No idea what the exact process and other considerations will actually turn out to be, though.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 17:00 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ribenapigeon wrote:
Power companies will be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of selling all that leccy.

Yes. Currently an electric car seems to use about fourpence a mile in electric costs (probably 1/5 to 1/2 current costs dep. on MPG).
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Bhud
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PostPosted: 17:48 - 04 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

The counter-congestion argument for bikes, and the resulting reduction in atmospheric pollution, never seems to gain traction, no matter how well supported by clear scientific evidence these arguments may be. This may have something to do with this:

European Commission wrote:

In the World Report, the World Health Organisation and World Bank have advised that care should be taken to avoid the adoption of policies which could encourage the growth of motorized two-wheeler traffic by giving advantages to motorized two-wheeler users.


https://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/specialist/knowledge/vehicle/safety_design_needs/motorcycles_en

This policy could also be the main driving force behind increasingly stringest DVSA testing standards (disincentivising, for example, CBT and DAS trainees). I tried to point this out on DVSA's recent blog post where they said they were coming down hard on rogue CBT instructors, but, as of right now, moderation has not allowed my comment to be posted there. It does make you wonder...

I've nothing to do with the DVSA or DVLA, but I joined their mailing lists, and get pestered regularly for photos and horror stories from "my" MOT station (I don't have one - I've nothing to do with it) so that these govt depts can post them on their blog to justify increasingly authoritarian and arbitrary regulations and enforcement. As we all know, safety or the environment does seem to be the default go-to justifications given for curtailing the culture of private transport we have. But these govt organisations have to stretch things quite a bit, censor a bit here and there, and they take care to never mention an overarching global policy with "common purpose" in their consultations with the public. All that we know for sure at this point is, they have taken away choice and control, and what people want and the influence of market choices has no place in this grand plan.
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