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When Mexican beer attacks! Corona Virus

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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 00:52 - 25 Jan 2020    Post subject: When Mexican beer attacks! Corona Virus Reply with quote

Happy New Year!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51240355

Probably about the worst time for any contagion given all the young workers pile out of the factories and go back to their villages Sick

Best time to sell a bike: no sharing a vehicle with the potentially sick and the safety gear doubles as a splash guard even if you have a pillion Smile
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duhawkz
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PostPosted: 01:14 - 25 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its got bearly a 4% mortality rate with less then a 1000 cases.

How many people have died of winter flu this year?

There is an ongoing ebola outbreak in the DRC https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/ebola/drc-2019

Quote:
Total of 3416 cases (3297 confirmed & 119 probable), including 2237 deaths, 1136 survivors, and patients still under care.


Nobody has even mentioned it
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 02:30 - 25 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Although corona viruses have a nasty habit of mutating, at which point they can either stop causing a problem at all or instamurderdeathkill you.

I'd still take the pepsi challenge over ebola though because nobodty likes bleeding from their eyeballs.
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wr6133
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PostPosted: 08:31 - 25 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd take any information beyond the virus existing as unreliable. The Chinese Government views this kind of stuff as state secrets so they will lie. I flew out there the 1st time during the SARS epidemic, well I actually flew out when the government was telling the world it was a handful of cases and god knows how it had just spread outside of China. This narrative was not supported on the ground in Beijing and within days they were admitting to much higher infection numbers (my apartment was next to a designated SARS hospital Shocked ).

Eating out was awesome though everyone stayed at home scared, you could eat in famous central Beijing restaurants completely alone, when a chef is cooking for 1 the quality is awesome.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 08:58 - 25 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

While the Chinese evidently wish to be seen taking decisive action I find this shutting down of cities thing almost suspiciously too draconian when it is also being described as nasty flu.

I see Wuhan has a lab for storing and working with SARs type viruses, what a spot of luck.
https://www.livescience.com/china-lab-meets-biosafety-levels-new-coronavirus.html

edit: another interesting link aboutthat facility
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

I would not be surprised if international flights from several countries are stopped within days, not sure what will happen to anyone already out there but the stoppage would likely be precautionary for (say) a week or two initially rather that get in a position where action should have been taken sooner.


Last edited by doggone on 16:31 - 25 Jan 2020; edited 1 time in total
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 10:20 - 25 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I still say that what will get me in the end will be death by flu or attack by wasps.
It feels kinda surreal watching a virus erupt elsewhere in the world and knowing fine well it will land at my doorstep and kill a neighbour or myself Sad
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Pigeon
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PostPosted: 02:53 - 26 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

doggone wrote:


It's a bit suspect that the outbreak originated in the same town as the pathogen lab and their reaction has been so extreme.

There was a video a week ago where they were gassing several streets, or at least spraying lots of something that was such a fine mist as to appear like a gas. Something to kill bugs.

"Estimates for the infectivity of the new virus range from the WHO’s estimate of 1.4 to 2.5 to a much bigger 3.6 to 4.0 calculation from Jonathan Read of Lancaster University in England and colleagues."

Apparently 2.5 is 1918 Spanish flu levels where 500 million people caught it.

So 4.0 would be pretty bad, especially given todays population density and travel capabilities.

There was another video today with a nurse claiming the Corona figure was 14.0 and that not 1,400 people were infected, but 90,000
The general theme of the video was trying to get people to stay in doors, so it may have been overly dramatic to get the point across.
I guess we'll find out in a week or so....
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 13:22 - 26 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

They might be spraying propylene glycol. I read somewhere they used to do this in hospitals in the '60s. I think it was hoped that airborne pathogens would stick to it and in turn stick to surfaces (which are much easier to clean.) Can't speak for the technique's effectiveness but it's relatively benign if you don't suffer from asthma.

Spanish flu may be more or less infectious than this Coronavirus but it's the death rate that's also important Rolling Eyes If wikipedia is to be believed it killed up to 20% of the world population Shocked Wow!

If the current figures can be believed this virus is no "worse" than 5% so nothing to worry about...

...except I have this cold since I ate that egg fried rice Shocked
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 13:37 - 26 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Current death and infection rates are useless though.

It may have an incubation period of up to 14 days and the symptoms may not be severe at all for a large % of people.

Lots of people may not go to hospital in the current situation. Some people may have died and it not be recorded properly. It is all too early to say.

The only really worrying thing has been China's response. Locking down cities totaling 50m people is insane but I am hoping it is just them being more pro-active than they have been in the past, even if it is too late.

If this is all true, then there is almost no way to stop it spreading as monitoring airports will be useless without quarantining everyone for weeks. I am supposed to be going to Shanghai in a week but I don't think I will be risking it.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 21:43 - 26 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Chinese are being very open with information and are taking very tough action. Many felt they failed on these points with SARS and they don't want to fail agin. Personally I think it will be contained and brought under control within weeks, maybe a couples months.
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 09:06 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have asthma. It's events like this which make me want to go wild camping somewhere very remote for 6 weeks Sad
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 09:15 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sister Sledge wrote:
I have asthma. It's events like this which make me want to go wild camping somewhere very remote for 6 weeks Sad


You've always got Kielder...
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WreckTangle
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PostPosted: 09:47 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sister Sledge wrote:
I have asthma. It's events like this which make me want to go wild camping somewhere very remote for 6 weeks


this reminds me of that time we had the 'swine flu epidemic' about 10 years ago or something like that.......and that bird flu as well.

The media sort of blew it out of proportion.

'Oh my god we are all going to die in a mass death, everyone who has symptoms has to be burnt to death to prevent infection ... panic panic panic '

It will just be a few deaths....then people will forget about it....

Problem is, that when the real 'big one' hits, no one will take it seriously............... then when it gets too big we will all be going 'camping' for 6 weeks
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doggone
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PostPosted: 10:01 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im-a-Ridah wrote:
The Chinese are being very open with information and are taking very tough action. Many felt they failed on these points with SARS and they don't want to fail agin. Personally I think it will be contained and brought under control within weeks, maybe a couples months.

The trouble is you can add at least two zeros onto the chinese figures.
To be fair they can't know about those who got sick and died "because they were old" and never had any tests done.
It's quite encouraging that so far there doesn't seem to have been further spread from cases outside China, and none of those have died - but if incubation can be two weeks it's too early to read much into that.

Longer term these viruses mutate quickly and if those who get a bad variation stay home and infect less people (or die relatively quickly!), the selection pressure is towards milder forms which will give immunity to those that recover.
Even if nothing much is done it becomes self limiting as a result because over time there aren't enough hosts without immunity.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 10:50 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

The cull of the human bacteria cometh.

All hail Gaia, she will not tolerate our abuse of her heavenly body.

Praying Praying Praying Praying

Lets get rid of a few billion and cure the worlds ills.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 11:18 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Corona virus doesn't bother me. I'm waiting for this chap to turn up before I get worried:

Revelation 13:1-18
And I saw a beast rising out of the sea, with ten horns and seven heads, with ten diadems on its horns and blasphemous names on its heads. And the beast that I saw was like a leopard; its feet were like a bear's, and its mouth was like a lion's mouth. And to it the dragon gave his power and his throne and great authority. One of its heads seemed to have a mortal wound, but its mortal wound was healed, and the whole earth marveled as they followed the beast. And they worshiped the dragon, for he had given his authority to the beast, and they worshiped the beast, saying, “Who is like the beast, and who can fight against it?” And the beast was given a mouth uttering haughty and blasphemous words, and it was allowed to exercise authority for forty-two months. ...

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The Artist
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PostPosted: 11:32 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://i.imgur.com/FUk067U.png

All Shanghai non-essential businesses have been ordered to remain closed until 10th Feb.

This is a city of 24 million people and will cost $billions in economic impact.

It really does worry me that China is being SO active in trying to stop this spread. Certainly unlike their previous attempts which makes me think this could be some real bad news.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 12:53 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
The Corona virus doesn't bother me. I'm waiting for this chap to turn up before I get worried:

Revelation 13:1-18
And I saw a beast rising out of the sea, with ten horns and seven heads, with ten diadems on its horns and blasphemous names on its heads. And the beast that I saw was like a leopard; its feet were like a bear's, and its mouth was like a lion's mouth. And to it the dragon gave his power and his throne and great authority. One of its heads seemed to have a mortal wound, but its mortal wound was healed, and the whole earth marveled as they followed the beast. And they worshiped the dragon, for he had given his authority to the beast, and they worshiped the beast, saying, “Who is like the beast, and who can fight against it?” And the beast was given a mouth uttering haughty and blasphemous words, and it was allowed to exercise authority for forty-two months. ...


Multi-headed beast spouting obscenities? Sounds like Twitter Thinking
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 13:03 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
Diggs wrote:
The Corona virus doesn't bother me. I'm waiting for this chap to turn up before I get worried:

Revelation 13:1-18
And I saw a beast rising out of the sea, with ten horns and seven heads, with ten diadems on its horns and blasphemous names on its heads. And the beast that I saw was like a leopard; its feet were like a bear's, and its mouth was like a lion's mouth. And to it the dragon gave his power and his throne and great authority. One of its heads seemed to have a mortal wound, but its mortal wound was healed, and the whole earth marveled as they followed the beast. And they worshiped the dragon, for he had given his authority to the beast, and they worshiped the beast, saying, “Who is like the beast, and who can fight against it?” And the beast was given a mouth uttering haughty and blasphemous words, and it was allowed to exercise authority for forty-two months. ...


Multi-headed beast spouting obscenities? Sounds like Twitter Thinking


Mumsnet.
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 13:09 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated and with different start point.

https://i.redd.it/xvmi9cbq2bd41.png
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 13:19 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

All these people wearing masks which are most unlikely to be at all useful.
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 13:22 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
All these people wearing masks which are most unlikely to be at all useful.


Better than nothing. The virus is likely in droplets from people coughing and sneezing which will get caught in N95 masks for example but they don't seal around the face very well so definitely not 100% effective.

Also, if you cough or sneeze into it, it prevents it spreading as easily.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 13:33 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Artist wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
All these people wearing masks which are most unlikely to be at all useful.

Better than nothing.

Doubtful.
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 14:43 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
The Artist wrote:

Better than nothing.

Doubtful.


As I said before, I was supposed to be going to Shanghai in a few days time so I have been doing a lot of research and even plain surgical masks will help reduce the chance of infection.

They are the most practical way of reducing risk for most people as wearing full body biological containment suits is not realistic.

I expect to see more full head covering masks as the eyes are an easy entry for viruses.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 14:54 - 27 Jan 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Artist wrote:
As I said before, I was supposed to be going to Shanghai in a few days time so I have been doing a lot of research and even plain surgical masks will help reduce the chance of infection

So relax, have confidence in your own research, and don't worry about it. 🤷
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