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JackButler
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PostPosted: 23:47 - 26 Feb 2020    Post subject: Coronavirus -archive Reply with quote

Split thread from June 2021. New thread here:
https://www.bikechatforums.com/viewtopic.php?t=333101

I sort of understand that there's a semi-defined timeline involved with pandemics & we seem to be fairly accurately hitting the benchmarks.

So when's the best time to stock the larder & fill up the fridge ???
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 23:53 - 26 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last week.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 00:08 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just when Brexit stockpiling was looking like a pointless exercise along comes a new potential disaster. Hurray!
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 09:14 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Did mine two weeks ago. Huge pile of tins of soups etc (easy cook/long shelf life) and other needed things.
I call it my 'being poorly' food. It does not get used until all of the seasonal lurgys have vanished. I have no support network and for me I have to just deal with things.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 09:32 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have 2 bottles of Captain Morgan's finest, a case of diet coke and numerous Bombay Bad Boy pot noodles on my boat.

I'm fixed for the duration. Thumbs Up
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doggone
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PostPosted: 09:52 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's only a matter of days before the cack-handed lockdowns start.
I can see something like gatherings of more than 50 not allowed.

Tourism worldwide this year is f*cked, even if an event is allowed people will be scared to go.

It should have been possible to largely contain this at the other side of the world but the trivial measures that have been taken are consistently at least two weeks too late.
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WreckTangle
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PostPosted: 10:57 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Re: Coronavirus Reply with quote

JackButler wrote:
I sort of understand that there's a semi-defined timeline involved with pandemics & we seem to be fairly accurately hitting the benchmarks.

So when's the best time to stock the larder & fill up the fridge ???


Don't want to spread panic but...........DO it now man, before its too late!!!!! Shocked

Buy lots of brown rice and be prepared for the end result of this to be like the world from the mad max film series.......just hope that eating tins of dog food from a rusty can does not give you indigestion
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JackButler
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PostPosted: 11:57 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Many years ago when computers were still a novelty, an old work colleague had one of the few jobs repairing the then bulky & primitive laptops for Toshiba.

This one scared him witless, obviously not meant to have ended up in his workshop. This was an MOD laptop that contained (unsecured) the regional East Midlands plans & standing orders in the case of a nuclear attack on the UK.

I've never had chance to read it myself but I'm told that if the BBC ever broadcast the words "there is no cause for alarm, I repeat there is no cause for alarm" then it's time to really panic.

He said the laptop was promptly collected by 2 uniformed police who his colleague (ex-police) said that he'd never seen that type of uniform badge ???

I wonder if that is still true today?
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 13:17 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe we'll get the opportunity to clear out last year's unused stack of hurricane tins, just in time to stock up again. Rolling Eyes

Having spent the last week bashing the Moonie churches in South Korea I'm surprised the media here gave barely a passing mention to the hordes of Catholics crammed into St Peter's square yesterday trying their best to infect the doddery old bloke in the white frock...

Oh, and PB, can you really make two bottles of Captain Morgan last long enough when stuck inside for 14 days?
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 13:34 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can just improvise when needing more rum.

https://www.bikechatforums.com/download.php?id=103159
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 15:46 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Overhyped.

The media are struggling for news after things have died down with Brexit/Meghan/Schof/Snacks.

This gives them something to devote a whole hour of reporting to Thumbs Up
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Howling Terror
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PostPosted: 18:26 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERr5_fMXYAAG6TV?format=jpg&name=large
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WreckTangle
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PostPosted: 20:12 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Holy Moly!!


just come across news that now even the pople might have this!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGW1iL88Fws

Even gods favourite one is not immune Shocked

ONe wonders if he will next on the celebrity rip thread Thinking
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 22:06 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

mentalboy wrote:

Oh, and PB, can you really make two bottles of Captain Morgan last long enough when stuck inside for 14 days?


No Embarassed
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 22:27 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

For context, estimated deaths in England due to influenza, 2017-2018: 26,408

The flu-like 2020 Coronavirus outbreak appears to have killed mostly old folk, putting it in ordinary flu territory.

The classically feared flu pandemic was 1918's Spanish Flu which curiously killed all ages including the typically healthy 20-40 age group. Theories include strong immune systems fighting it out to exhaustion and death, whilst weaker systems quit and allowed the virus to follow its life cycle, moving on instead of killing the host. Another theory is that people exposed to a Group 2 sub-type virus in early life (outbreak in 1898 in this case) are predisposed to succumb to a Group 1 sub-type (1918's Spanish Flu). Of course, Spanish Flu was particularly unkind bearing in mind that WW1 had already killed so many young men. Another theory says the flu virus only opened the door to bacterial lung infections which, in the absence of antibiotics, did the real damage.

I do wonder whether this is a media-led pandemic.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 22:48 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem is the huge numbers who won't survive without a rather prolonged spell in the ICU if not on a ventilator due to pneumonia

The NHS is well prepared they keep saying Laughing

The main problem will be the economic disaster of general shutdown of almost everything for several weeks in an attempt to slow it down. It won't work but might help spread the peak out and conceivably a vaccine will be nearly ready before autumn.
It won't go away for several years and could have multiple waves with different variations as happened in Spanish Flu
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 23:51 - 27 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not like spanish flu for the simple reason that we are able to make vaccines based on a dna map. Vaccines are being built now based on proteins within the virus.

It'll work like th annual flu vaccine. The most likely strains will be vaccinated against.

It's not been particularly lethal anywhere with proper medical care.

It's not like ebola, ffs. If you want to shit your pants, imagine that getting into a big town in the UK.
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Pigeon
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PostPosted: 00:50 - 28 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
Overhyped.


400 million people on lock down in China alone.

11% Official mortality rate in Iran (13% unofficial)

3.4% Official mortality rate in China (14% unofficial)

R0 between 2.5 and 6.6 (although nearer 6.6 seems more likely, particularly given its aerosol based and infectious through farts)

Even if only 25% of the UK gets it. That could be between 2.2m and 9.2m deaths.

Compared to flu of 600 a year.

Doesn't sound overhyped.


EDIT: But beyond that, the economic side could interesting.
Supply chain issues, everything is JIT and it must have a significant impact. Container ships are queuing up in ports.
Then each country / company has debt to service, but with receipts dropping. How long can they pay people to be at home for.
Central banks / governments are going to have to co-ordinate and helicopter money all over the shop if this goes on for more than a few months.

EDIT2: As Dogone said, severe cases require intravenous fluids, crititcal cases require ventilation. I cant remember the figures quoted by Dr Campbell. But I thought it was 15% are severe and 5% critical.
Spent some time in a few hospitals in South in last 18 months. They have always been rammed with zero capacity (Cardio, Gastro and A&E). The NHS is, like most health organisations, absolutely not resourced for this. Which country could afford to have that level of spare capacity for a once in 100 year event.
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Suntan Sid
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PostPosted: 02:04 - 28 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

doggone wrote:
conceivably a vaccine will be nearly ready before autumn.


Dream on, 18 months, according to a scientist, on the radio, today!
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UncleFester
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PostPosted: 08:22 - 28 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

So unless you are either old / young or already suffer from an illness that means even garden variety flu can kill you ...

You're in no more danger from this than anything else.

We are overpopulated and have too many old people living too long. A pandemic can only exist for as long as it has either carriers and or fuel.

Media hyped nonsense - at the very worst we'll all get a month working from home and the possibility of cheap holidays.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 09:01 - 28 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nature was always going to come up with something to control the germs called homo sapiens.

Good on it. Thumbs Up
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iooi
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PostPosted: 12:14 - 28 Feb 2020    Post subject: Re: Coronavirus Reply with quote

JackButler wrote:
I
So when's the best time to stock the larder & fill up the fridge ???


Why bother.

Can order everything you need delivered to your door....
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doggone
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PostPosted: 12:16 - 28 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apparently you are supposed to panic buy bog roll, pasta, and dog food - so get cracking.
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iooi
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PostPosted: 12:18 - 28 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pigeon wrote:


Even if only 25% of the UK gets it. That could be between 2.2m and 9.2m deaths.


"Could" be a load of rubbish.
So far no deaths in the UK.
Soon we will be chip shop wrapper news in a months time. Thumbs Up
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 12:30 - 28 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
Nature was always going to come up with something to control the germs called homo sapiens.

Good on it. Thumbs Up


Considering it seems to take out those with heart issues, I'd say (IIRC) that you and me don't want to be laughing too hard about this case of natural selection!!
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Old Thread Alert!

The last post was made 4 years, 30 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful?
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