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How will a second wave be prevented?

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EazyDuz
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PostPosted: 00:21 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: How will a second wave be prevented? Reply with quote

At present, lockdown exists to reduce the spread of the virus and flatten the curve to ensure the NHS can cope with the numbers.

Well, as soon as lockdown is lifted, pubs, bars, parks, restaurants, gyms etc all open back up, ALL those people who stuck to lockdown religiously and have not yet had the virus will be at a huge risk.
Imagine an infected person walking into a completely rammed pub (because everyone is going to be out since they can finally enjoy their freedom), the spread will be huge.

I don't understand how a second wave can be prevented until a vaccine is widely available. I think herd immunity would have made more sense, and prevented the collapse of the economy at the same time.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 00:44 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Re: How will a second wave be prevented? Reply with quote

EazyDuz wrote:
At present, lockdown exists to reduce the spread of the virus and flatten the curve to ensure the NHS can cope with the numbers.

Well, as soon as lockdown is lifted, pubs, bars, parks, restaurants, gyms etc all open back up, ALL those people who stuck to lockdown religiously and have not yet had the virus will be at a huge risk.
Imagine an infected person walking into a completely rammed pub (because everyone is going to be out since they can finally enjoy their freedom), the spread will be huge.

I don't understand how a second wave can be prevented until a vaccine is widely available. I think herd immunity would have made more sense, and prevented the collapse of the economy at the same time.

There won't be what the media happily call a "second wave", the contagion will just flare up again, which is why "lifting lockdown", such as it is, will only happen gradually, carefully, not all at once. Look at Spain's for instance, which was much more rigorous than ours. It's only about a week since they started letting children under 14 out of their houses *at all*, and then only when accompanied by an adult, and only within a short distance of their houses. The Jerries have re-imposed some of their measures after an increase in cases.

The press here are all gung-ho for "we're lifting lockdown", which is not at all true, and is an unhelpful thing for them to say.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 01:02 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh and also, don't forget that it's likely that only about 7 million people have been infected in the UK so far. For herd immunity to happen we need a) a lasting immunity, not yet confirmed, and b) a much higher percentage infected. Think about the consequences of that.
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Pigeon
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PostPosted: 01:11 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Re: How will a second wave be prevented? Reply with quote

EazyDuz wrote:
At present, lockdown exists to reduce the spread of the virus and flatten the curve to ensure the NHS can cope with the numbers.

I don't understand how a second wave can be prevented until a vaccine is widely available. I think herd immunity would have made more sense, and prevented the collapse of the economy at the same time.



Flattening the curve does not change the number of infections, only the time taken to get infected.
The area / space below the curve line remains a constant.

Flattening the curve is still herd immunity, only over a longer time frame.
It should save lives by not causing the health system to collapse.

But yes, the cost in lives due to the knock on implications for years to come do exist to.
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 01:30 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

4% of the world's population, 25% of the number of globally registered deaths and today I saw four old scroats in the communal swimming pool at the trailer park where I was working today. Preventing a second wave, not happening in the land of the stupid... Rolling Eyes
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Ste
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PostPosted: 02:57 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

A second wave can't be avoided.

When lockdown is relaxed, the virus will start spreading again.

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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 03:35 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
Oh and also, don't forget that it's likely that only about 7 million people have been infected in the UK so far. For herd immunity to happen we need a) a lasting immunity, not yet confirmed, and b) a much higher percentage infected. Think about the consequences of that.


According to a very small and confounded poll on BCF, 35% of users on this forum may have had it.

Extrapolated ot the Uk population, that would be 23 million.

There ends todays lesson in tabloid statistics.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 05:01 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rebel wrote:
Of course this won't prevent mr. Gates and his allies in the ID 2020 alliance and elsewhere attempting to make billions whilst microchipping the planet, under the pretext of prevention.

Gagged

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doggone
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PostPosted: 07:13 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

The numbers who have been exposed will vary from place to place and some areas will already be at a point where enough have had it to help keep it subdued.

There is increasing evidence to support the idea it was already circulating at Christmas or before perhaps in a milder form or largely among more fit and active groups who barely noticed.

Most things we thought we knew about it have needed revising, and the extreme death rates which scared the pants of governments back in March haven't materialised.

It's unlikely there will be a sudden new flare up as the more vulnerable will continue distancing so far as possible and certainly won't be going to crowded pubs even if they were open.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 08:34 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
Oh and also, don't forget that it's likely that only about 7 million people have been infected in the UK so far. For herd immunity to happen we need a) a lasting immunity, not yet confirmed, and b) a much higher percentage infected. Think about the consequences of that.


According to a very small and confounded poll on BCF, 35% of users on this forum may have had it.

Extrapolated ot the Uk population, that would be 23 million.

There ends todays lesson in tabloid statistics.


Thing is there are probably more have had it than even think they have had it because so many have no or very little symptoms.

I have had a dry cough for a week now but it's not a hacking cough, it comes and goes. I have no temperature and don't feel sh1t. I have no idea I whether that's the lurgy or just a good old sore throat jobby.

Does it even matter if you have already had it though. Are you immune? Can you get it twice? If you do get it a second time will it still be 'benign' or much more virulent.

I'm going to stay self isolated-ish. It doesn't really bother me as most humans I'm not interested in meeting anyway.
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EazyDuz
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PostPosted: 09:20 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

doggone wrote:

It's unlikely there will be a sudden new flare up as the more vulnerable will continue distancing so far as possible and certainly won't be going to crowded pubs even if they were open.


Thats a massive assumption and in my experience isnt at all true even now. Whenever I go shopping I always see a lot of very old couples with no PPE at all.
As soon as things start opening again they will be going to church, playing bowls, golf etc likely wiping huge groups of old people out at a time, like what is currently happening in care homes now.
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pepperami
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PostPosted: 09:46 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

The second wave concerns me less than the end of lockdown.

We (people) , the Government, authorities have coping strategies should they be needed.

It’s the selfish and self-centred ignorant large minority that concern me.

What I mean is how many twats and wankers will be going straight to the first pub that opens and getting wankered and starting fights.
How many ignorant tossers will think that now lockdown is being eased that social distancing does not apply to themselves.

I know we need to slowly get back to some form of normality.

It saddens me but I don’t think most people will care to much once the Government starts lifting restrictions, and this will lead to a second wave of infections.
If the Government had already lifted restrictions by then, they will have a Devil’s own job try to impose restrictions a second time.
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Last edited by pepperami on 22:19 - 05 May 2020; edited 1 time in total
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doggone
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PostPosted: 09:48 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

EazyDuz wrote:
doggone wrote:

It's unlikely there will be a sudden new flare up as the more vulnerable will continue distancing so far as possible and certainly won't be going to crowded pubs even if they were open.


Thats a massive assumption and in my experience isnt at all true even now. Whenever I go shopping I always see a lot of very old couples with no PPE at all.
As soon as things start opening again they will be going to church, playing bowls, golf etc likely wiping huge groups of old people out at a time, like what is currently happening in care homes now.


Like almost everyone else.
We can't stay lockdown any longer, it's costing in the region of £2.5bn per day. If we reopened tomorrow economic activity will increase at a crawl because a lot of population have been scared witless by the saturation coverage of over enthusiastic death forecasts.

A major earner for decades has been tourism but there will be almost no foreign visitors until well into 2021.
Tourism is basically the only 'industry' for many areas.
How any of that is going to be supported in shutdown for months on end - or if we should even try I have no idea.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 11:06 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

pepperami wrote:
The second wave concerns less than the end of lockdown.

We (people) , the Government, authorities have coping strategies should they be needed.

It’s the selfish and self-centred ignorant large minority that concern me.

What I mean is how many twats and wankers will be going straight to the first pub that opens and getting wankered and starting fights.
How many ignorant tossers will think that now lockdown is being eased that social distancing does not apply to themselves.

I know we need to slowly get back to some form of normality.

It saddens me but I don’t think most people will care to much once the Government starts lifting restrictions, and this will lead to a second wave of infections.
If the Government had already lifted restrictions by then, they will have a Devil’s own job try to impose restrictions a second time.


Totally and utterly agree. Once they start to let lockdown ease, they lose control. Once people are going back to work the police aren't going to be able to check on 'necessary journeys'. People will be off to their holiday homes in the places where retirees live. Pikeys will be off to rob a new neighbourhood. Even if the pubs don't open there will be parties in houses and on the streets.

I can see it being a right clusterfuck.
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EazyDuz
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PostPosted: 11:30 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

My biggest gripe about the whole thing is the sheer amount of 'lockdown shamers' who flock to social media with photos of someone buying beer or paint and crying that its not essential, or more often, moaning that their neighbour is going out more than once a day.
It's like Nazi germany except instead of ratting out the Jews they're ratting out their neighbours.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 11:38 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
Oh and also, don't forget that it's likely that only about 7 million people have been infected in the UK so far. For herd immunity to happen we need a) a lasting immunity, not yet confirmed, and b) a much higher percentage infected. Think about the consequences of that.


According to a very small and confounded poll on BCF, 35% of users on this forum may have had it.

Extrapolated ot the Uk population, that would be 23 million.

There ends todays lesson in tabloid statistics.

3% (see poll), OTOH, is 2,010,000. I don't know what "tabloid statistics" have to do with anything (e.g. the tabloids that picked up on the derided Oxford estimation, ans most certainly not a BCF poll!
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 11:42 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

doggone wrote:
There is increasing evidence to support the idea it was already circulating at Christmas

What, in the UK? If so, where is the evidence?
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 11:44 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

doggone wrote:
the extreme death rates which scared the pants of governments back in March haven't materialised

The death rates are approximately as forecast.

IF you mean the number of deaths, then consider what has happened that was supposed to reduce the numbers dying, and which while not so much here yet, but certainly elsewhere, has done exactly that.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 18:55 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rebel wrote:
Well at least pneumonia deaths are down. How strange.

That's a good point about this year's pneumonia cases being automatically assigned to Covid19. It's also been said that the end of year "deaths from all causes" will not be proportionately higher than other years because many of the vulnerable would have succumbed from other causes.

Rebel wrote:
Forget vaccines though.

Anti-vaxxer?

Rebel wrote:
This particular coronavirus has mutated oddly, in that it has a acquired a section of genes that are entirely absent from the Sars genome, (but bear resemblance to those found in HIV and Ebola, how strange), encoded to target the receptor protein furin in human cells, and not the much rarer ACE2 receptor protein that Sars attaches to. This equates to a massive gain of function in contagion and resistance to vaccine.
To quote Dr. Shi Zhengli, who is researching the generation of chimeric virus' expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS -CoV backbone, using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, in the countries only BSL 4 lab, the Key Labarotory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety, in Wuhan. (pure coincidence).

No coincidence, the problem was centred in Chinese bats so obviously China was a centre of research.

This seems to be the quoted scientific paper, from 2015, co-written by Chinese, American and Swiss scientists.

Rebel wrote:
Of course this won't prevent mr. Gates and his allies in the ID 2020 alliance and elsewhere attempting to make billions whilst microchipping the planet, under the pretext of prevention.

You are mpd72's ginger step-brother and I claim my 5 ponds.
Why the hate for The Gates Foundation?
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 20:11 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's mpd72 got to do with this?
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 20:19 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
What's mpd72 got to do with this?

He loves a conspiraceh too.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 21:03 - 05 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Plus turning up after 5 years and giving good karma to donk during his overdue rapage.
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