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Diggs
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 Posted: 08:13 - 26 May 2020  Post subject: The Cummings affair |
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Not for the first time I am confused by the actions of our Government. As a result of what will become known as the 'Cummings Weekend' when the UK population stopped social distancing, in two weeks time we will see a large rise in the 'R' rate of COVID. This rise will put us back to where we started, just at the time most of Europe is coming out of the mess. This in turn will lead to more deaths and a longer period of economic stagnation, thus a longer recession. Cummings is a lying cockwomble without a doubt, because nobody goes for a drive to test their eyes. Our Government knows this, yet is prepared to put all that has been achieved over the last 10 weeks at risk to keep him in his job. I am confused as to why. Answers on a postcard please...
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| linuxyeti |
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linuxyeti
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| stinkwheel |
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stinkwheel
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Posted: 08:47 - 26 May 2020  Post subject: |
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It's a choice of maintaining moderate levels of infection now or period of quiet then second large spike in autumn. We appear to be going for the former.
By keeping the tail of the curve reasonably fat, you reduce the chances of a second large spike and land uop with more of a bulge. Drop it to zero and we start again from where we were in Febuary. This virus is not going to go away. All you achieve by dropping cases to as very low level is keep your population vulnerable to re-infection.
There is currently no way of reducing the total number of cases a country is likely to have. All we can do is affect when they happen.
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cdlxxvi
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Ayrton
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| barrkel |
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barrkel
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| Posted: 10:53 - 26 May 2020 Post subject: |
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| stinkwheel wrote: | This virus is not going to go away |
To the degree that a country believes this, it risks being cut off from countries which have controlled the virus, where it has in fact gone away.
The cut off needn't be absolute, it'll likely be quarantines.
The virus has nasty long-term effects on some survivors. Mortality has been the headline item, and sure, young people don't die, but it looks like many survivors of all ages end up with permanent lung damage and other ailments. It's also concerning that the virus affects the nervous system. What long term affects there?
If the UK isn't able to control this, and goes full on Trump, does it make sense to stay in this country?
The latest I've seen indicates that spread is dominated by superspreaders, i.e. that most encounters don't end up being particularly infectious, but some individuals seem to be much, much more infectious than others. If that's the case, it may be feasible to track them. Superspreaders could be why the virus has affected some countries much more than others. If you just have to quench the hottest sparks to stop the conflagration, there's hope.
(Personally I don't take my cue from the government. I'm not staying indoors because the government says so; I'm staying in on my own account. I'll go on e.g. motorbike rides once those restrictions end, but I'm not going back to the office or restaurants or theatres any time soon, not until we have a lot more information about short and long term risks, prevalence, treatment, etc.)
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doggone
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 11:34 - 26 May 2020 Post subject: Re: The Cummings affair |
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| Diggs wrote: | Not for the first time I am confused by the actions of our Government. |
Are you? Are you really confused? 
| Quote: | As a result of what will become known as the 'Cummings Weekend' when the UK population stopped social distancing, in two weeks time we will see a large rise in the 'R' rate of COVID. This rise will put us back to where we started, just at the time most of Europe is coming out of the mess. This in turn will lead to more deaths and a longer period of economic stagnation, thus a longer recession. Cummings is a lying cockwomble without a doubt |
I presume this is all fact, before it has happened?
If Cummings is obviously a lying cockwomble, then why do you think that everyone will respond to what he has done in a way that will put them at risk? Is everyone just waiting to go out and risk catching the virus at the first opportunity, but just need an excuse from government? Are you now going to go out and ignore the fact of the virus' existence, because of the actions of Dominic Cummings?
What he has done makes no difference to the situation we are all in. Get over it. Vote for someone else at the next election, which I presume you are going to do anyway.
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Easy-X
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| Posted: 11:40 - 26 May 2020 Post subject: |
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| barrkel wrote: | The latest I've seen indicates that spread is dominated by superspreaders, i.e. that most encounters don't end up being particularly infectious, but some individuals seem to be much, much more infectious than others. If that's the case, it may be feasible to track them. Superspreaders could be why the virus has affected some countries much more than others. If you just have to quench the hottest sparks to stop the conflagration, there's hope. |
Yes, they found this with AIDS. A handful of highly promiscuous ppl (literally just dozens) were accounting for 95% of the spread in a country. And so it is with Covid. If reports are to be believed, Italy's Patient Zero was a delivery driver: told to stay and home and isolate but carried on working anyway.
Thing is the UK would be a very easy place to stamp out Covid 100%. Machine gun nests on the beaches to take out any unapproved dinghies and isolate everyone who steps off a plane or boat.
Unfortunately we have a government more interested in individual freedom than safety. As evidenced by this debacle 
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Diggs
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| Posted: 12:34 - 26 May 2020 Post subject: Re: The Cummings affair |
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| chickenstrip wrote: |
Are you? Are you really confused?
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I really am. We aren't the most socially responsible of species, and we have been cooped up for 10 weeks. What did the Government expect would happen when choosing to agree with Cummings' interpretation of his own lockdown rules, plus the rather strange bit about going for a 30 mile drive with his family in the car to test his eyesight?
It isn't the actions of Cummings that confuses me so much because whilst I think he was wrong to do what he did, he is only human and we all do daft things. However, in doing daft things we accept that there may be consequences. It is the considered response of the Government that I don't understand.
As for voting in the next election, you are correct in your assumption that I won't vote for the BoJo/Cummings dream-team, because I don't trust the pair of them to act in anybody's interests other than their own kind.
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| linuxyeti |
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linuxyeti
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Posted: 12:45 - 26 May 2020  Post subject: |
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| barrkel wrote: | | stinkwheel wrote: | This virus is not going to go away |
To the degree that a country believes this, it risks being cut off from countries which have controlled the virus, where it has in fact gone away.
The cut off needn't be absolute, it'll likely be quarantines.
The virus has nasty long-term effects on some survivors. Mortality has been the headline item, and sure, young people don't die, but it looks like many survivors of all ages end up with permanent lung damage and other ailments. It's also concerning that the virus affects the nervous system. What long term affects there?
If the UK isn't able to control this, and goes full on Trump, does it make sense to stay in this country?
The latest I've seen indicates that spread is dominated by superspreaders, i.e. that most encounters don't end up being particularly infectious, but some individuals seem to be much, much more infectious than others. If that's the case, it may be feasible to track them. Superspreaders could be why the virus has affected some countries much more than others. If you just have to quench the hottest sparks to stop the conflagration, there's hope.
(Personally I don't take my cue from the government. I'm not staying indoors because the government says so; I'm staying in on my own account. I'll go on e.g. motorbike rides once those restrictions end, but I'm not going back to the office or restaurants or theatres any time soon, not until we have a lot more information about short and long term risks, prevalence, treatment, etc.) |
I agree with stinkwheel, the virus is likely to become endemic, and we'll have to learn to live with it. Again, you can reduce your risk of catching it greatly, by maintaining physical distancing and keeping clean. If you touch a hard surface, cash, (ooh, the prospect of a cashless society has come so much closer, at last !!), shopping basket, etc before touching your face, specifically, eyes, nose and mouth, wash your hands, added benefits will be you'll be less likely to catch other virus infections as well. As I see, as far as going to pubs, restaurants etc, goes, needn't be excessively risky, even less so if eating alfresco, or using a beer garden. Have a look at the video Wetherspoons have made setting out how they will mange once they are allowed to open, I am sure other venues will take a similar route. As for going on motorbike rides, the restrictions have effectively been removed in the England for a good couple of weeks now, so, long as your travel is within England.
Hiding indoors hoping to wait until it's passed, is not a way to live, exist, yes, live, no. There is lot's of talk of vaccines, but none as yet are ready, if infact any ever will be.
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Im-a-Ridah
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| Posted: 12:53 - 26 May 2020 Post subject: |
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I'm never going to vote Labour or Lib Dem  |
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 12:57 - 26 May 2020 Post subject: Re: The Cummings affair |
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| Diggs wrote: | | chickenstrip wrote: |
Are you? Are you really confused?
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I really am... |
Sorry, I'm already bored with the subject
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linuxyeti
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| Posted: 12:57 - 26 May 2020 Post subject: |
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| Quote: | As a result of what will become known as the 'Cummings Weekend' when the UK population stopped social distancing, in two weeks time we will see a large rise in the 'R' rate of COVID. This rise will put us back to where we started, just at the time most of Europe is coming out of the mess. This in turn will lead to more deaths and a longer period of economic stagnation, thus a longer recession. |
There is a difference, now compared to where we were at the beginning of the outbreak, it appears more people understand, and exercise social distancing and have improved personal hygiene, plus, there are significant numbers who have been scared that much, they are still refusing to leave the house. Alas, you don't have to look far to see that there are still plenty of stupid people out there, ranging from, those that are grouping together, to those that feel the need to wear a face mask in their own car when they are alone !! However, the R number shouldn't increase as sharply as it did previously, and as such, we shouldn't hit that 2nd surge/peak, but instead probably keep the curve of new infections relatively flat.
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stinkwheel
Bovine Proctologist
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| Posted: 13:40 - 26 May 2020 Post subject: |
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| barrkel wrote: |
To the degree that a country believes this, it risks being cut off from countries which have controlled the virus, where it has in fact gone away.
The cut off needn't be absolute, it'll likely be quarantines.
The virus has nasty long-term effects on some survivors. Mortality has been the headline item, and sure, young people don't die, but it looks like many survivors of all ages end up with permanent lung damage and other ailments. It's also concerning that the virus affects the nervous system. What long term affects there?
If the UK isn't able to control this, and goes full on Trump, does it make sense to stay in this country?
The latest I've seen indicates that spread is dominated by superspreaders, i.e. that most encounters don't end up being particularly infectious, but some individuals seem to be much, much more infectious than others. If that's the case, it may be feasible to track them. Superspreaders could be why the virus has affected some countries much more than others. If you just have to quench the hottest sparks to stop the conflagration, there's hope. |
Still not convinced. The trouble with this one is that by the time you SEE cases creeping up (even into double figures) the battle is lost and you are already on your way to a spike in cases. Illegal immigrants move at will throughout Europe and even cross the channel.
We come down to the old urinary argument. Better to have it inside pissing out than outside pissing in.
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I did the 2010 Round Britain Rally on my 350 Bullet. 89 landmarks, 3 months, 9,500 miles. |
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Val
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Posted: 14:27 - 26 May 2020  Post subject: |
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FYI in 1970s when in a high school living in communist dictature Bulgaria I was giving Britain as an example of fair play and the rule of law.
https://i.imgur.com/MkwvI11.jpg
I am British now and Cummings and Johnson's sheer arrogance this week makes a total mockery of British fair play and the rule of law.
To say I am angry will be a huge understatement.
For those asking the question “What rules and law did Cummings break?"
Lockdown no travel rules.
Health Provisions Act (Corona Virus) (England) 2020.
Road Traffic Act 1988 (S96).
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linuxyeti
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Posted: 14:32 - 26 May 2020  Post subject: |
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| Val wrote: | FYI in 1970s when in a high school living in communist dictature Bulgaria I was giving Britain as an example of fair play and the rule of law.
https://i.imgur.com/MkwvI11.jpg
I am British now and Cummings and Johnson's sheer arrogance this week makes a total mockery of British fair play and the rule of law.
To say I am angry will be a huge understatement.
For those asking the question “What rules and law did Cummings break?"
Lockdown no travel rules.
Health Provisions Act (Corona Virus) (England) 2020.
Road Traffic Act 1988 (S96). |
Ahh, the woman who was a close friend and lobbied for Jimmy SAville to get a knighthood, cracking example there Val.. I appreciate that you are are a non native memberof our community, however, before posting, it would probably be a good idea to research your social references a little better.
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Diggs
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| Posted: 14:45 - 26 May 2020 Post subject: |
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| BTTD wrote: | Were there any direct issues resulting from what he did... nope. |
This is the heart of the matter. He may or may not have spread the disease - we'll never know. The direct issue is the reaction by the Government to their boy being caught doing something he shouldn't, plus the reaction to his story about taking a spin in his car with his wife and nipper, to see if he was safe to drive.
The indirect issue is the message it sent to a public craving release from lockdown.
It is all about competency and consistency in decision making, or in this case a lack of....
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Lord Percy
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 16:10 - 26 May 2020 Post subject: |
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I think he should be PM.
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 3 years, 329 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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. Probably time to spend a while reading all his blog posts and articles.
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