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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 22:27 - 26 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Ste wrote:
Kickstart wrote:
To me, question is how can such an idiot land up in such a position of power.

He knows things that Boris doesn't want revealed. Shocked


This is definitely a big part in the shambles we saw this weekend.

That, and Boris is simply a cuddly front man who will be utterly lost if his one and only ideas man is given the boot.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 22:49 - 26 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
How would you have dealt with the situation?
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Pigeon
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PostPosted: 22:58 - 26 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
BTTD wrote:
Were there any direct issues resulting from what he did... nope.



Prof Neil Ferguson broke lockdown and resigned.

Dr Catherine Calderwood broke lockdown and resigned.

Neither of them were sick when they did so. Or driving a vehicle on public roads while not sure if they could see properly and with a kid on board.

Cummins claim to have driven to a beauty spot on the day of his wife's birthday to test his eyesight is utterly risible!

He should resign or have been sacked and definitely fined.

Anyone else who has been fined, should be challenging those fines.

Anyone who didn't visit dying relatives because they were obeying the rules, can imagine there is a lot of anger there now, but nothing can be done except for the government to lead by example as its supposed to.
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Lord Percy
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PostPosted: 23:01 - 26 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rebel wrote:

Having previously predicted bird flu would kill 200 million and swine flu 65,000, he took the falsified data from China, (who were concealing the extent of contagion), added coding that was a “buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming”, and produced the ludicrous prediction of half a million deaths.


Firstly, it's probably true that bird flue and swine flu would have killed that many people if left to spread wildly.

Secondly, covid-19 mortality rate sits at 14% in the UK. Now let's assume that number to be far lower if the infection were to spread into more healthy individuals, rather than the old/infirm who are dying of it now. Let's go really low, let's say it's 1%.

1% of 65,000,000 is 650,000

I don't think that many deaths is a particularly good thing to aim for.

Note that the other issue is that these millions of cases (and deaths) would all come pretty quickly, overwhelming the NHS and therefore causing more deaths of folk who couldn't access health services for other conditions. It would be the greatest avoidable disaster of the century.

But yeah sure it's all 'ludicrous', you must be the new expert, thanks for letting us all know.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 23:42 - 26 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Kickstart wrote:
To me, question is how can such an idiot land up in such a position of power.

All the best

Katy


https://www.thesteepletimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Diane-Abbott-Dumb.jpg
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 00:22 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rebel wrote:
The real outrage is the inept epidemiology of Imperial College pharma shill Neil Ferguson ... produced the ludicrous prediction of half a million deaths. Result, we we lock down the majority of the population who were never at significant risk and bring the nation to its knees.

Well, I would not think that to far out. You can do the arithmetic as easily as anyone else. The estimate was AFAIR 2% approx. deaths with 80% of the population infected. I seem to remember putting a calculation in the Coronavirus thread a while ago.

Fortunately, we had a lockdown to control the spread of the thing.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 00:44 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Pigeon
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PostPosted: 00:49 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Lord Percy wrote:

covid-19 mortality rate sits at 14% in the UK. Now let's assume that number to be far lower if the infection were to spread into more healthy individuals, rather than the old/infirm who are dying of it now. Let's go really low, let's say it's 1%.

1% of 65,000,000 is 650,000

I don't think that many deaths is a particularly good thing to aim for.



I don't think many would disagree. But there are a lot of unknowns.
Why is it that other countries who did not appear to implement strict lockdown mange to have so few deaths?

UK is 5th worst in the world, with 546 deaths per million.

Contrast that with another ageing population, Japan at 7 deaths per million.
South Korea, 5 deaths pm.
Australia, 4 deaths pm.
Thailand, 1 death pm.

Just as a side. Flu kills on average 17k a year in the UK (1,400 a month).
Currently covid19 has killed 12,300 a month. 9x as fatal.
If there wasn't a flu vaccine, then the numbers would logically be higher. But equally, we've also had lockdown, so who knows what the covid rate would be without it.

9x as bad as flu. Or is it.
Manchester Uni think possibly 19m have had it . If true, then thats a CFR of 0.28% Or 185,000 per year (still 11x worse than flu at 17,000 a year).

In the same period as 37k died from Covid, 180k babies were born in the UK.

I'm not saying covid isnt bad, clearly its orders of magnitude worse than flu. Perhaps 11x worse.

But how did we end up with 100x the number of deaths per million compared to other countries with not too dissimilar age profiles?


EDIT:

I wonder if it was simply that multiple infection areas got established in countries with zero track n trace. The UK and USA in particular were largely ignoring it until it was too late, it was spread too far.

In other words, countries with very low CFR now could potentially get high numbers at any point if they allow it back in and don't continue with track n trace permanently.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 01:12 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Fabricated Bollocks News (FBN) reports today that Boris Johnson girlfriend has given birth to a child which is also part Alien. It has 4 antenna, a 5G connection, and was born in a Huawei hospital. Doctors have said it is very healthly with 800 MBps upload speeds. Commenting on the recent scandal where Dominic Cummings was found to have visited a woman who he his legally married to, and a child that is biologically his, Boris said that he accepts that politicians being married and having legitimate children is "very suspicious" and "highly unusual these days", but ultimately is a private matter. Dianne Abbott was later seen stuffing her fat face in a McDonalds drive thru while sat on the back of a flatbed truck because nothing else could move her. FBS reporter Msx Guestflirt Massiveminge who self identifies as bouncy castle spoke to the fat ho earlier who said "mmmhmm nomm more mcflurry oh yes I support Jeremy".

https://66.media.tumblr.com/674cfeb69161e69247d99eab16ea65ce/tumblr_oukyi6wde91worsr3o1_r1_1280.png

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/624x351/p07l9rwp.jpg
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 06:45 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Pigeon wrote:
Lord Percy wrote:

covid-19 mortality rate sits at 14% in the UK. Now let's assume that number to be far lower if the infection were to spread into more healthy individuals, rather than the old/infirm who are dying of it now. Let's go really low, let's say it's 1%.

1% of 65,000,000 is 650,000

I don't think that many deaths is a particularly good thing to aim for.



I don't think many would disagree. But there are a lot of unknowns.
Why is it that other countries who did not appear to implement strict lockdown mange to have so few deaths?

UK is 5th worst in the world, with 546 deaths per million.



The simple answer to that, is the uk population doesn't have a high enough proportion of the population that can understand and implement social/physical distancing, without being expressly told to do so. Coupled with that, there is definitely a significant proportion of the population, who, really don't know what is, or how to use soap, or toothpaste, but that's another matter. Surely if you've been to the NEC bikeshow, it can't have been long between intervals of being wafted by that lovely smell of bo, or that aroma of halitosis when someone tries to talk to you, whilst the contents of their pasty drops down their chin and onto their top !
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Last edited by linuxyeti on 07:01 - 27 May 2020; edited 1 time in total
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 06:50 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Diggs wrote:
What I find galling is that Cummings, Johnson and Gove expect you to believe it, because they think you are that gullible.


They already won a referendum and a parliamentary majority based on this assumption. Why change a winning tactic?
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Ayrton
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PostPosted: 10:55 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rebel wrote:


Which is presumably why he didn't take this preposterous cattle drive seriously.
The real outrage is the inept epidemiology of Imperial College pharma shill Neil Ferguson, ($280 m. gates beneficiary) who's deeply flawed model justified this farcical lockdown.
Having previously predicted bird flu would kill 200 million and swine flu 65,000, he took the falsified data from China, (who were concealing the extent of contagion), added coding that was a “buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming”, and produced the ludicrous prediction of half a million deaths. Result, we we lock down the majority of the population who were never at significant risk and bring the nation to its knees.


I'm pretty sure this is the same model used and a lot of people are quite pissed off that we have based everything on a 30 year old sim that has no tests.
https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/issues/165

Not that you can really expect much more from academics that have never worked in the industry and insist peer reviewing is good enough. That shit wouldn't fly where I work and I'm not programming something that could put lives at risk.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 11:05 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Pigeon wrote:
Why is it that other countries who did not appear to implement strict lockdown mange to have so few deaths?
....
Just as a side. Flu kills on average 17k a year in the UK (1,400 a month).
...
9x as bad as flu. Or is it.
...
But how did we end up with 100x the number of deaths per million compared to other countries with not too dissimilar age profiles?

See the coronavirus thread. We're starting to go around in circles here. Not trying to be rude.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:06 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Pigeon wrote:


But how did we end up with 100x the number of deaths per million compared to other countries with not too dissimilar age profiles?


I'm starting to wonder if Joe Rogan might actually be on to something when he bangs on about Vitamin D deficiencies. At any rate, I suspect the general health of the population may have something to do with it. As I am finding myself, it is difficult to eat healthily when you're poor (although I think I manage better than many). And we don't exactly seem to be a nation of health and fitness freaks overall. I think rabid consumerism has made people soft and lazy. At least, I think these may be some significant contributing factors.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 11:18 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Not sure about the VitD argument, because for the last 10 weeks the weather has been good and most people have spent more time in the sun than they usually do at this time of year.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:31 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Diggs wrote:
Not sure about the VitD argument, because for the last 10 weeks the weather has been good and most people have spent more time in the sun than they usually do at this time of year.


Is that the case? When we look at the subset populations most at risk, have they been getting more sun? Anyway, I did say I think it may be a contributing factor, but my point was more about the general health of the population. Many people don't exactly live lifestyles that would ensure good immune system strength. This is more likely to put people in the 'at risk' categories. Of course, there will always be a few unexplained exceptions, but they are not the 'norm'.

But people don't like to be told they aren't living healthily. It suggests they maybe ought to face some deprivations in terms of the luxuries they have got used to, and such bad habits require actual effort to change Shocked
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BTTD
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PostPosted: 12:00 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Pigeon wrote:
But how did we end up with 100x the number of deaths per million compared to other countries with not too dissimilar age profiles?


If you record every death as a "with Covid 19" death, even if they haven't been tested, then you're likely to get inflated numbers.
The UK isn't even trying to record people who have died from the virus.

Some states in the US have reduced their number of virus deaths by 25% when restating as died "from" the virus.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 12:00 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:


Is that the case?


My logic is based upon the fact that we have had more decent weather that we usually have, and the supposition that people will spend more time outside when the sun shines than they do when it rains. Whether this applies less to the elderly and diabetics I can't speculate, but I know my granny likes to be out in it.

We are constantly told that we aren't living healthily. Most adverts on the telly suggests that we aren't physically perfect and that if we buy their product, we will come closer to the media ideal.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:08 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Diggs wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:


Is that the case?


My logic is based upon the fact that we have had more decent weather that we usually have, and the supposition that people will spend more time outside when the sun shines than they do when it rains. Whether this applies less to the elderly and diabetics I can't speculate, but I know my granny likes to be out in it.


Hardly conclusive evidence though.

Quote:
We are constantly told that we aren't living healthily. Most adverts on the telly suggests that we aren't physically perfect and that if we buy their product, we will come closer to the media ideal.


I think most people know when they are doing things that aren't good for their health. But sometimes it's hard to change. The way our society is set up doesn't make it any easier.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 12:12 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:


Hardly conclusive evidence though.



Logic and supposition dear boy. I claim nothing more.

Are you sure MDMA hasn't had his 3" in you? Laughing
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:13 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
Diggs wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:


Hardly conclusive evidence though.



Logic and supposition dear boy. I claim nothing more.

Are you sure MDMA hasn't had his 3" in you? Laughing


See, now you're dodging the health question too Laughing
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 12:22 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
I don't know the answer.

Advertisers spend millions trying to get people to eat/use their unhealthy products so in that sense I agree. On the other hand, advertisers also spend millions on shaming us into eating and acting in a healthier manner than most of us do.

The reasons why we are addicted to certain sugars, fats and salt are complicated.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 12:35 - 27 May 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote
It is a question that is relevant to the Diggs household, as my eldest is currently writing a dissertation on perceived nutritional knowledge, whether people put that knowledge into practice and whether the application of said knowledge has a discernible effect.
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Old Thread Alert!

The last post was made 3 years, 334 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful?
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