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Bhud |
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Bhud World Chat Champion
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Easy-X |
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Easy-X Super Spammer
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Posted: 11:47 - 18 Nov 2020 Post subject: |
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Polarbear wrote: | And why would Shell and the like supply petrol for just motorbikes. |
With all due respect that's a woman's answer: take one problem and make it much worse by adding a non sequitur Besides, there are still "petrol stations" selling paraffin, what's that about?!
Still reckon eco-bikes should run on bio-ethanol though (over bio-diesel.)
rpsmith79 wrote: | Plus the fact that everyone knows it aint gonna happen, untill someone work out how charge a street full of cars on a terraced street without having chaging cables tripping up every pedestian, the move to full electric will be logistical nightmare
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Electric cars sound all well and good from an urban standpoint but you get out in the sticks and driveways could be 500 yards from the house or more. Upgrade lamp posts? What are lamp posts?! etc. Which means rural areas get left behind in the same way as broadband and mobile coverage - not economically viable due to low population density.
rpsmith79 wrote: | And the question mark of how well batteries hold up in a crash |
I was thinking on similar lines: I literally know a bike stored in a shed for 30 years will start. Clean the jets etc. and you might be lucky and get 100% of the performance you had before it was stored. Time is not so kind to batteries.
It's the whole "eggs in one basket" that concerns me. The only practical solutions we have are petrol/diesel ICE, electric or a hybrid of the two. There's no diversification into bio-fuels, hydrogen, methane, ammonia, fuel-cells... lots of stuff not getting a look-in ____________________ Husqvarna Vitpilen 401, Yamaha XSR700, Honda Rebel, Yamaha DT175, Suzuki SV650 (loan) Fazer 600, Keeway Superlight 125, 50cc turd scooter |
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Polarbear |
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Polarbear Super Spammer
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Polarbear |
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Ayrton |
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Ayrton World Chat Champion
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Polarbear |
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wr6133 |
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wr6133 World Chat Champion
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Skudd |
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Skudd Super Spammer
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Easy-X |
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Easy-X Super Spammer
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Posted: 14:58 - 18 Nov 2020 Post subject: |
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Polarbear wrote: | No it isn't a womans answer... |
Oh yes it is! Now we're getting into panto
The government are legislating a ban on sales of new petrol/diesel cars and vans. The potential lifetime of any ICE could be north of 50 years. Shell, BP, Esso etc. aren't going to go "right, lads, that's us done!" and pack up shop overnight!
Skudd wrote: | It's odd how so many billionaire Indian/Pakistani there are bringing back companies, sending people to space, buying large major companies in the UK and yet we are still sending them aide money and over 80% are still shitting in a field because they haven't got the basics of a toilet and running water. |
Quite easy to forget that India are behind us on the curve of history. French Revolution 1789, Russian Revolution 1917, the disparity can reach a breaking point. They are already how shall we say... overly enthusiastic when it comes to elections ____________________ Husqvarna Vitpilen 401, Yamaha XSR700, Honda Rebel, Yamaha DT175, Suzuki SV650 (loan) Fazer 600, Keeway Superlight 125, 50cc turd scooter |
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wr6133 |
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wr6133 World Chat Champion
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Posted: 15:34 - 18 Nov 2020 Post subject: |
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Easy-X wrote: | The potential lifetime of any ICE could be north of 50 years. Shell, BP, Esso etc. aren't going to go "right, lads, that's us done!" and pack up shop overnight! |
The tipping point of it being commercially viable to retail petrol as we know it now though will be lower than you think. Already the logistics of refinery - point of sale are tight and the profit margins at point of sale are pretty shit, hence the increasing size of forecourt shops to generate more revenue. As an illustration last time I dealt with buying Diesel in bulk (a tanker a week) I was happy to get it at 89p a litre back then I think at a Supermarket pump it was around 115p a litre. Not the gold mine people think it is when you need to cover the costs of the retail operation. Prices are also based on volumes so as volume drops the retailers margins will too on the reduced volume they sell.
The oil companies don't care about retail in the UK, it's mostly farmed out anyway. If sales take a nosedive here they will just divert the tankers to the US, Russia, China, etc. Big oil won't suffer we are a tiny soon to be Banana Republic of an Island, if you are selling oil globally having to divert our consumption elsewhere is irrelevant.
I'd bet at the point about 1/3rd at most go electric you'll see a massive loss of petrol stations. That 1/3rd won't take long to happen, most new or even 2nd hand (at least 1st time its sold used) are now on some form of PCP deal. These types of buyers will be easily moved quite quickly to electric. The first wave PCP new, then 4 years later the 2nd wave get those cars. Once the petrol stations start to thin out that will motivate more people to make the switch and that will continue as a cycle. If the one in my town closed and then the independent the next town over, I'll find myself doing a 20+ mile round trip to get fuel. Wouldn't take me long to buy a Zoe under those circumstances. |
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Polarbear |
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Polarbear Super Spammer
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Posted: 17:01 - 18 Nov 2020 Post subject: |
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wr6133 wrote: | Easy-X wrote: | The potential lifetime of any ICE could be north of 50 years. Shell, BP, Esso etc. aren't going to go "right, lads, that's us done!" and pack up shop overnight! |
The tipping point of it being commercially viable to retail petrol as we know it now though will be lower than you think. Already the logistics of refinery - point of sale are tight and the profit margins at point of sale are pretty shit, hence the increasing size of forecourt shops to generate more revenue. As an illustration last time I dealt with buying Diesel in bulk (a tanker a week) I was happy to get it at 89p a litre back then I think at a Supermarket pump it was around 115p a litre. Not the gold mine people think it is when you need to cover the costs of the retail operation. Prices are also based on volumes so as volume drops the retailers margins will too on the reduced volume they sell.
The oil companies don't care about retail in the UK, it's mostly farmed out anyway. If sales take a nosedive here they will just divert the tankers to the US, Russia, China, etc. Big oil won't suffer we are a tiny soon to be Banana Republic of an Island, if you are selling oil globally having to divert our consumption elsewhere is irrelevant.
I'd bet at the point about 1/3rd at most go electric you'll see a massive loss of petrol stations. That 1/3rd won't take long to happen, most new or even 2nd hand (at least 1st time its sold used) are now on some form of PCP deal. These types of buyers will be easily moved quite quickly to electric. The first wave PCP new, then 4 years later the 2nd wave get those cars. Once the petrol stations start to thin out that will motivate more people to make the switch and that will continue as a cycle. If the one in my town closed and then the independent the next town over, I'll find myself doing a 20+ mile round trip to get fuel. Wouldn't take me long to buy a Zoe under those circumstances. |
if you are selling oil globally having to divert our consumption elsewhere is irrelevant.
Exactly ____________________ Triumph Trophy Launch Edition |
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Robby |
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Robby Dirty Old Man
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steve the grease |
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steve the grease Crazy Courier
Joined: 26 Jan 2018 Karma :
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Posted: 18:30 - 18 Nov 2020 Post subject: |
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stinkwheel wrote: | What they should do is design a basic motorbike that is desirable to the motorcycling public and competative with their rivals in both price and performance. They could incorporate new technology and features that were painfully missing from their previous models.
They could take out finance so they can make it on a state of the art production line with computerised just-in-time stock control.
Then in enimitable British fashion, someone could fuck with the prototype so the motor wont fit into the frame without partially dismantling it and instead of checking with anyone, just set the production line going.
They could call it the "Fury". |
For those lucky enough to be too young to remember this is a humerous dig at the goings on during the end days of BSA/ Triumph
back in the early seventies. B/T had developed a DOHC twin the fury/ bandit which they had hoped to get into production in time to save the company(s). Almost as if Boris Johnson was running the company it all fell apart and they went bust , I hadn't heard the story of the design changes ( there were plenty) that meant the engine didn't fit in the frame any more, but I can well believe it.
For anyone who is interested "Whatever happened to the british motorcycle indistry" by Bert Hopwood is a great read. I'm surprised they lasted so long.... ____________________ All the above is my personal opinion, you can see my lips move, but I'm talking out of my arse.
I've been riding, and fixing , bikes for 50 years, in that time the more I learn, the less I am absolutely sure of..... |
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TravisBickle |
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TravisBickle Formerly known as DUCAUDI
Joined: 17 May 2019 Karma :
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Posted: 01:37 - 19 Nov 2020 Post subject: |
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rpsmith79 wrote: | I've seen enough Robot Wars to know that i don't want to be anywhere near a Li Ion battery if it gets punctured |
I've seen a few petrol bikes engulfed in a ball of flames as they slide down the road too. Not sure which is the lesser of two evils.
With the whole point about phasing out petrol in years to come while diesel production will still be necessary for agriculture, heavy vehicles and boats etc... As I understand it x amount of petrol and x amount of diesel is always produced as part of the crude oil refinement process. I can't see there ever coming a time when diesel is still being produced but not petrol. What they gonna do with the petrol? Throw it down the drain? Supply and demand will dictate that if petrol vehicles are banned, petrol would still be available for sale but at a fraction of the price. Good news for classic car owners perhaps? Unless of course the government ban the sale of petrol along with the ban on sale of petrol vehicles. Again which brings me back to the point of what are they going to do with all the surplus petrol that's produced as part of the diesel-making process? Pour it down the drain? Probably sell it on to developing countries and then blame them for polluting the world...
Ayrton wrote: | Just watch Long Way Up and you see how much of a joke bike tours will become. Only about 80 miles per stretch and then you've got to wait hours for it to recharge and if your stuck somewhere without a decent electricity supply then your buggered. At one point they had to have a generator transported to them so they could charge the bikes and then in another bit they took the ferry to skip a large portion because there was no charging points |
SPOLIER ALERT!!!
Hadn't got round to watching this yet, damn you!
wr6133 wrote: | The tipping point of it being commercially viable to retail petrol as we know it now though will be lower than you think. Already the logistics of refinery - point of sale are tight and the profit margins at point of sale are pretty shit, hence the increasing size of forecourt shops to generate more revenue. As an illustration last time I dealt with buying Diesel in bulk (a tanker a week) I was happy to get it at 89p a litre back then I think at a Supermarket pump it was around 115p a litre. Not the gold mine people think it is when you need to cover the costs of the retail operation. Prices are also based on volumes so as volume drops the retailers margins will too on the reduced volume they sell. |
That's a good point but all will happen is maybe a small percentage of forecourts will go out of business and the remainder will increase their margin to account for the fall in volume.
Skudd wrote: | It's odd how so many billionaire Indian/Pakistani there are bringing back companies, sending people to space, buying large major companies in the UK and yet we are still sending them aide money and over 80% are still shitting in a field because they haven't got the basics of a toilet and running water. |
Skudd for PM!!!
Easy-X wrote: | Shell, BP, Esso etc. aren't going to go "right, lads, that's us done!" and pack up shop overnight! |
True, but they may invest in other forms of energy... Or other industries altogether. They will have to diversify in order to survive. The list of multinational companies that have done this over the years as demand on a particular service or product has declined is endless.
Robby wrote: | The amount of tinfoil hattery is this thread is amusing. |
LOL
Robby wrote: | Petrol stations will still exist for years, but over time there will be less of them selling petrol - or fewer pumps and more chargers. I would expect the price of petrol to go up as it becomes a niche product as well. |
That's a good point! ____________________ 2007 Yamaha FZ1 S Fazer
2021 Honda CMX500 Rebel S
2016 Triumph Tiger 1050 Sport
Last edited by TravisBickle on 01:59 - 19 Nov 2020; edited 1 time in total |
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droog |
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droog Spanner Monkey
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doggone |
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doggone World Chat Champion
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droog |
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Easy-X |
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Easy-X Super Spammer
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Posted: 14:05 - 19 Nov 2020 Post subject: |
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Droog wrote: | After 2040 ICE motorcycles and cars will be the sole preserve of very serious enthusiasts, rich collectors and museums? |
No.
Sale of new ICE cars stop in 2030 (and probably hybrids in 2035 or 2040) existing cars can carry on until specific legislation bars their use on public highways. A typical family car you could rinse 20 years out of easily and 40 wouldn't be outlandish if you can get the parts so nothing is really going to change with regards to petrol sales, forecourts etc. for decades after the ban.
So far for motorcycles there is nothing happening. The only tangible issue you might have is fishing about for petrol in say.... 2060 TBH I think they'll wake up after the car ban and just push bikes back to 2040. Again, 20 years plus out of a new ICE is no big ask.
I would imagine the historic vehicle system will remain unchanged so it's possible in... oh I dunno, the 22nd Century (yes, seriously) you'd probably need to get petrol specially couriered to you via Amazon drone to keep your museum piece going ____________________ Husqvarna Vitpilen 401, Yamaha XSR700, Honda Rebel, Yamaha DT175, Suzuki SV650 (loan) Fazer 600, Keeway Superlight 125, 50cc turd scooter |
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Bhud |
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Bhud World Chat Champion
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Posted: 14:44 - 19 Nov 2020 Post subject: |
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I have sneaking suspicion that this is part of a global agenda and that practicalities, logic and what people want won't play a part in the way things pan out from here. A big clue is the fact that Johnson made an announcement about 2030 - a time when he definitely won't be around. It's a safe bet that whatever political party replaces him will not repeal or revoke any policy or regulatory instruments that carry this agenda along.
The point has been made about petrol availability. It isn't just about petrol availability. Yes, fractional distillation produces petrol as a byproduct. However, there is no good reason to believe that practicality and logic will continue to make petrol wend its way over here to the pumps. Of course, it might do, but that's just a statement of optimism, based on a belief that "things have always been this way." I do get it. For all my life, and all of yours, it's always been that way. However, things change.
Petrol does the job extremely well. You can transport it anywhere and sell it. People will come along and buy it. It solves a lot of problems. But abstracted and remotely imposed ideologies, such as this watermelon (green on the outside, red on the inside - couldn't resist hehehe) revolution seems to have tumult built into it as either a necessary evil or a means to an end.
Other than petrol availability, there are other considerations:
1) Ministry of transport reducing lane availability to ICE vehicles on main roads and motorways, or even forbidding them from certain roads altogether.
2) Imposition of number plate-based toll charges by central government and/or local councils in specific areas at specific times or all the time.
3) Yet more taxation being piled onto VED and/or petrol at the pump.
These things could, conceivably, give biking less than 10 years, and possibly even scupper the contingency plans some of us have made. The only thing I'm certain about is that there is huge uncertainty ahead. |
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Keithy |
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Keithy Spanner Monkey
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droog |
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droog Spanner Monkey
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Posted: 15:05 - 19 Nov 2020 Post subject: |
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Very interesting takes on the future Easy-X, Bhud.
I see both scenarios as eminently credible - but I would be hard pressed at the moment to decide which outcome is more likely - such is the state of political, economic and global flux at the moment. |
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Polarbear |
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Polarbear Super Spammer
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Ayrton |
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Ayrton World Chat Champion
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droog |
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Robby |
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Robby Dirty Old Man
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 3 years, 156 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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