BSA Back?

[Bhud]

[Easy-X]

[Polarbear]

The population will all have cripple carts to go to the shops on. It will be just about the only thing people will be able to afford.

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/09/19/article-1313337-0B1B208D000005DC-721_468x286.jpg
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Triumph Trophy Launch Edition

[Polarbear]

[Ayrton]

[Polarbear]

[wr6133]

[Skudd]

It's odd how so many billionaire Indian/Pakistani there are bringing back companies, sending people to space, buying large major companies in the UK and yet we are still sending them aide money and over 80% are still shitting in a field because they haven't got the basics of a toilet and running water.
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Famous last words of Humpty Dumpty. " Stop pushing me "
Petty Anarchists look at "1984".............. The Visionary looks at "Animal Farm".

[Easy-X]

[wr6133]

[Polarbear]

[Robby]

The amount of tinfoil hattery is this thread is amusing. Also assuming that electric cars won't take off because a few small problems that can be easily worked around.

Tripping over cables in the street? cable covers. Can't charge at home? Charge at the supermarket. Crash performance is also considered for electric cars, surprisingly enough they still get crash tested and no-one wants to make another Ford Pinto.

Petrol stations will still exist for years, but over time there will be less of them selling petrol - or fewer pumps and more chargers. I would expect the price of petrol to go up as it becomes a niche product as well.

Tax - somehow it will happen. Smart meters are one way, road charging is another.

The biggest logistical issue is the national grid. To do a full charge on an electric car will use as much electricity in 12 hours as I usually use in 4 days. Electric cars could also be used for load balancing and battery storage, with some kind of deal for consumers where it will be charged up by morning regardless.

There isn't currently enough grid capacity to shunt that much electricity to people's homes, so that's one infrastructure problem which is reasonably easy if expensive to fix - more wires and management.
The grid also likes to work one-way. Generator > distribution > consumer. The distribution bit would need to massively change to use vehicles as grid storage.

[steve the grease]

[DUCAUDI]

[droog]

Interesting comments.

So in summary we have a decade left (to 2030) of relatively normal ICE motorcyling (with new petrol machines manufactured and sold during this period) and potentially another decade (to 2040) of ICE motorcying on what will be 'legacy' petrol machines - as the production of new ICE motorcycles and cars will have ended and the petrol infrastructure we rely on will start to seriously reduce in size and taper off as it is comprehensively replaced by electric power.

After 2040 ICE motorcycles and cars will be the sole preserve of very serious enthusiasts, rich collectors and museums?

Are motorcycles included in the proposed ban on ICE cars for 2030?

I wonder if there will be a market for retro-fitting ICE motorcycles with electric motors as there is now for classic cars?

[doggone]

[droog]

[Easy-X]

[Bhud]

I have sneaking suspicion that this is part of a global agenda and that practicalities, logic and what people want won't play a part in the way things pan out from here. A big clue is the fact that Johnson made an announcement about 2030 - a time when he definitely won't be around. It's a safe bet that whatever political party replaces him will not repeal or revoke any policy or regulatory instruments that carry this agenda along.

The point has been made about petrol availability. It isn't just about petrol availability. Yes, fractional distillation produces petrol as a byproduct. However, there is no good reason to believe that practicality and logic will continue to make petrol wend its way over here to the pumps. Of course, it might do, but that's just a statement of optimism, based on a belief that "things have always been this way." I do get it. For all my life, and all of yours, it's always been that way. However, things change.

Petrol does the job extremely well. You can transport it anywhere and sell it. People will come along and buy it. It solves a lot of problems. But abstracted and remotely imposed ideologies, such as this watermelon (green on the outside, red on the inside - couldn't resist hehehe) revolution seems to have tumult built into it as either a necessary evil or a means to an end.

Other than petrol availability, there are other considerations:
1) Ministry of transport reducing lane availability to ICE vehicles on main roads and motorways, or even forbidding them from certain roads altogether.
2) Imposition of number plate-based toll charges by central government and/or local councils in specific areas at specific times or all the time.
3) Yet more taxation being piled onto VED and/or petrol at the pump.

These things could, conceivably, give biking less than 10 years, and possibly even scupper the contingency plans some of us have made. The only thing I'm certain about is that there is huge uncertainty ahead.

[Keithy]

[droog]

Very interesting takes on the future Easy-X, Bhud.

I see both scenarios as eminently credible - but I would be hard pressed at the moment to decide which outcome is more likely - such is the state of political, economic and global flux at the moment.

[Polarbear]

Government and councils are trying to curb private vehicle journeys without spending a huge amount on public transport.

The ideal in big towns and cities would be an automatic tram network that is free but that's never going to happen so we have a push for bikes, electric scooters and the like. Commuting in the future? It's going to be the train. When I commuted into London from 2013-15 it was costing me £4500 a year. I dread to think what it is now.

I doubt if there is an electric car that could get me to central London and back to MK without needing a charge even now (maybe a Tesla would) and certainly no electric bike could.

Induction highways? Horrendous cost and what's the efficiency of something like that?

Coincidentally I have been asked by the National Association of Boat Owners to write a report on the possibilities of new power sources for boats on the inland waterways. Even though boats are not mentioned in the legislation the expectancy is that councils will use bylaws to prohibit the use of diesel powered boats once diesel cars are gone.

As Bhud said 'The only thing I'm certain about is that there is huge uncertainty ahead.'
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Triumph Trophy Launch Edition

[Ayrton]

[droog]

[Robby]