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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 01:25 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

And if they get a "yes" from the majority of Scots, does that put them in an internationally legal position to exit the Union, whether Westminster says yes or not?
Let's face it; even years of terrorism, bloodshed and death didn't get NI out of the Union.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 01:41 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
M.C wrote:

And they didn't for Brexit? Did that turn out to be representative of the British people? Smile

No, they didn't.

No they didn't? They spent 9 million quid sending a leaflet to everyone's house, telling them the government wanted to stay in the EU, that's more on that one piece of propaganda than your entire wanky referendum budget... for both sides: https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/scottish-independence-referendum/campaign-spending-scottish-referendum

stinkwheel wrote:
There were groups supporting and campaigning for both sides within the majority party at the time.

Yes because it was a divisive issue in the Tory party. Hence one of the reasons, with UKIP stealing their votes, for the referendum.

stinkwheel wrote:
Whereas labour and the tories both actively campaigned strongly for a no vote in the Independance referrendum.

The SNP spent more than both of them and the Lib Dems combined. Do they just stay out of it in your idea of a democracy?

stinkwheel wrote:
Which neatly answers your question "Why the hell do you think we want to keep you?"

We the people, one of the few things (I think) we agreed on was politicians don't represent ordinary people.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 02:02 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
And if they get a "yes" from the majority of Scots, does that put them in an internationally legal position to exit the Union, whether Westminster says yes or not?


Interesting question. Possibly yes. They could potentially unilaterally declare independance. There is nothing in international law prohibiting it which was proven when the ICJ issued an advisory oppinion on Kosovos unilateral declaration of independance from Serbia in 2008. Then it's down to individual countries to recognise it.

Such a declaration would probably hold more sway if it was backed up by an internationally monitored open and fair referrendum, sanctioned by the opposing party or not.

It's how Rhodesia became Zimbabwe, which is relevant because it was formerly part of the British Empire and they didn't agree with it. Although Zimbabwe is probably not the most shining example of anything much.

It's also how Bangladesh, Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia came into existance.


Quote:
Let's face it; even years of terrorism, bloodshed and death didn't get NI out of the Union.


There wasn't a majority in NI who wanted to leave the union. The terrorists represented a minority. It's a closerrun thing now though.

Even if there was a majority in favour of leaving, since their duly elected representatives are too childish to meet in assembly for long enough to even officially say what they want by passing a motion, it's not very likely to happen.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 02:12 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's funny...you have so many answers, and yet you're still not out Laughing

Oh to hell with it. Let's stop pussyfooting about and have a war! Very Happy
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 02:18 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:

Yes because it was a divisive issue in the Tory party. Hence one of the reasons, with UKIP stealing their votes, for the referendum.


So you made my point. The Tory party did not an agressive and well-funded anti-brexit campaign at the last referrendum. 45% of them campaigned for Brexit.

Quote:
The SNP spent more than both of them and the Lib Dems combined. Do they just stay out of it in your idea of a democracy?


It's not what I said. I said it's what makes me think England/the English want to keep hold of Scotland. If they didn't want to keep hold of Scotland they had the option to either keep out of it or campaign for the yes vote. The did neither, they actively campaigned against it. ipso-facto, England wants to keep hold of Scotland.

Quote:
We the people, one of the few things (I think) we agreed on was politicians don't represent ordinary people.


I think you add weight for the argument for leaving. Of course, you're stuck with them because you (the English) are either too apathetic to do anything about it, or you (yourself) are wrong and they do represent the ordinary people.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 02:18 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
It's funny...you have so many answers, and yet you're still not out Laughing

Oh to hell with it. Let's stop pussyfooting about and have a war! Very Happy


You might want to check where you stashed your nukes first.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 02:32 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:


Oh to hell with it. Let's stop pussyfooting about and have a war! Very Happy


You might want to check where you stashed your nukes first.


Lack of funding for the military probably means they won't work anyway - nothing else does in this country anymore Laughing
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M.C
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PostPosted: 02:59 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
So you made my point. The Tory party did not an agressive and well-funded anti-brexit campaign at the last referrendum. 45% of them campaigned for Brexit.

Yes they fucking did. Sending a leaflet to everyone's house was an expensive and brazen move.

Extending voter registration whilst launching a social media campaign was another impartial move.

stinkwheel wrote:
M.C wrote:
The SNP spent more than both of them and the Lib Dems combined. Do they just stay out of it in your idea of a democracy?


It's not what I said. I said it's what makes me think England/the English want to keep hold of Scotland. If they didn't want to keep hold of Scotland they had the option to either keep out of it or campaign for the yes vote. The did neither, they actively campaigned against it. ipso-facto, England wants to keep hold of Scotland.

As we found out in 2014, a majority of people didn't actually want independence. Why on earth would those parties not represent those voters? Unless I'm mistaken it's Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives.

stinkwheel wrote:
I think you add weight for the argument for leaving. Of course, you're stuck with them because you (the English) are either too apathetic to do anything about it, or you (yourself) are wrong and they do represent the ordinary people.

Not sure how you figure that one out. If politicians don't represent ordinary people, that includes your lot. The SNP definitely didn't represent the majority of Scottish voters in 2014 when they lost their own referendum Laughing

You might have also noticed this Conservative government is on its knees and (more than likely) on the way out.

Outside of independence the SNP are worse than the loonies in the Labour party.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 13:02 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:

Unless I'm mistaken it's Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives.


What? Both of them!
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 14:19 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
M.C wrote:

Unless I'm mistaken it's Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives.


What? Both of them!


Given independence, what factions do you think Scottish politics will break down into? What will the new political landscape look like?
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M.C
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PostPosted: 15:13 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
M.C wrote:

Unless I'm mistaken it's Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives.


What? Both of them!

That's what I asked. Both were created later and both are apparently autonomous. I seem to recall May and the Scottish Conservatives having friction, maybe cos under Ruth Davidson I think they did quite well (for the Tories in Scotland) and May was a slow motion car crash.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 17:13 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:

Given independence, what factions do you think Scottish politics will break down into? What will the new political landscape look like?


It'll almost certainly be elected by some form of PR so there will be a variety of parties and a tendancy for no single party to have an outright majority. Coallitions will be the norm or voting groups formed around certain issues. There will probably be a much wider array of smaller parties.

There will be a pro-Euro lefty woke party made up from a lot of the SNP brigade and any remnants of labour politicians. It may retain the SNP label, which would be an irony if they had a distinctly non-nationalist agenda. They'll probably land up as the biggest party but wont be sufficiently big to act unilaterally, they will have to deal in negotiation and consensus.

I think labour and conservatives will pretty much disappear as political parties. There may be a version of labour left but it will be the old fashioned militant left type who will be loud but irrelevant.

There will be a religious right pro gaelic party.

There may be a bitter dregs pro unionist party.

There will be a far left, bordering on communist socialist party.

I wouldn't be suprised if some version of the lib dems makes a resurgance because they were always popular MPs in Scotland.

Greens have potential to make a good showing.

Hopefully something will form around the centre-right area which has been obscured and unelectable since the 80's on account of being labelled as tories. They would need to be careful to fully distance themselves from the Tory party to gain any traction.

There will be a borderline comical hardline ultra-nationalist party determined to refight the jacobite rebellion.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 17:19 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any signs of a Right-Wing nationalist party emerging to counterbalance the insanity of the SNP?
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Islander
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PostPosted: 17:28 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:

There will be a borderline comical hardline ultra-nationalist party determined to refight the jacobite rebellion.


That's the one in the corner of the pub with the beard like hes mostly swallowed a bear, looking daggers at anyone not wearing the plaid and eyeing up potential power poles to burn down then. Laughing
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 17:42 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
Any signs of a Right-Wing nationalist party emerging to counterbalance the insanity of the SNP?


Probably not, but the SNP won't be "in charge". There wont be a party in overall majority so they won't ever get things entirely their own way.

So likes of the EU question. They won't be in a position to just apply for membership, they'll be forced to take it to the people.

Islander wrote:
That's the one in the corner of the pub with the beard like hes mostly swallowed a bear, looking daggers at anyone not wearing the plaid and eyeing up potential power poles to burn down then.


He'll be campaigning for removal of Charles III (who is oddly both the third Charles of Scotland AND England but the first two were different people) and coronation of the Duke of Bavaria.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 18:10 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:

Given independence, what factions do you think Scottish politics will break down into? What will the new political landscape look like?


It'll almost certainly be elected by some form of PR so there will be a variety of parties and a tendancy for no single party to have an outright majority. Coallitions will be the norm or voting groups formed around certain issues. There will probably be a much wider array of smaller parties.

There will be a pro-Euro lefty woke party made up from a lot of the SNP brigade and any remnants of labour politicians. It may retain the SNP label, which would be an irony if they had a distinctly non-nationalist agenda. They'll probably land up as the biggest party but wont be sufficiently big to act unilaterally, they will have to deal in negotiation and consensus.

I think labour and conservatives will pretty much disappear as political parties. There may be a version of labour left but it will be the old fashioned militant left type who will be loud but irrelevant.

There will be a religious right pro gaelic party.

There may be a bitter dregs pro unionist party.

There will be a far left, bordering on communist socialist party.

I wouldn't be suprised if some version of the lib dems makes a resurgance because they were always popular MPs in Scotland.

Greens have potential to make a good showing.

Hopefully something will form around the centre-right area which has been obscured and unelectable since the 80's on account of being labelled as tories. They would need to be careful to fully distance themselves from the Tory party to gain any traction.

There will be a borderline comical hardline ultra-nationalist party determined to refight the jacobite rebellion.


As you might imagine, this raises a lot more questions in my mind - might have to come back to this post later!

For now I'll just say on the point of PR without a strong majority - so going to look a lot more like Italy then? (without the sunshine and Ferraris Laughing ).
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 19:57 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:

For now I'll just say on the point of PR without a strong majority - so going to look a lot more like Italy then? (without the sunshine and Ferraris Laughing ).


But hopefully with less corruption, porn stars and Nazis.

Or Germany, or Norway, or any other number of countries not ruled by an absolute majority or straight-up 2 party system.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 20:16 - 06 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:

For now I'll just say on the point of PR without a strong majority - so going to look a lot more like Italy then? (without the sunshine and Ferraris Laughing ).


But hopefully with less corruption, porn stars and Nazis.


Well, you've already got two out of three in place. I'd prefer the third in place of those two Laughing
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 03:06 - 07 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:


There wasn't a majority in NI who wanted to leave the union. The terrorists represented a minority. It's a closerrun thing now though.


Latest poll shows apparently not: people in NI want to remain in the Union by a majority of almost 2:1. Apparently even 21% of Catholics in NI wish to remain in the UK (ARINS poll reported in the Irish Times).
Eire is different, unsurprisingly, until asked if they would support unification of Ireland if it meant changing the words of the Irish national anthem and altering the flag (!). Then it becomes marginal (slightly weird).
Interestingly, I think it is written into the GFA that it requires majorities in both the Republic and in NI for unification to take place, so going by this poll, it ain't going to happen any time soon. Of course, polls can be wrong, but with that kind of majority for remaining in the UK, you'd have to say it's a strong possibility that's the way a vote would go right now.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 15:07 - 07 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Current polling in Scotland shows SNP majority in freefall, Scottish Labour rising (almost neck-and-neck now), and ReformUK rising Smile

Whilst the SNP are still (just barely) in the lead, that's still only 34% of Scots that support them. Not exactly a roaring endorsement for independence!
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Islander
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PostPosted: 15:47 - 07 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
Current polling in Scotland shows SNP majority in freefall, Scottish Labour rising (almost neck-and-neck now), and ReformUK rising Smile

Whilst the SNP are still (just barely) in the lead, that's still only 34% of Scots that support them. Not exactly a roaring endorsement for independence!


I'm not sure which polls you've been reading but Ipsos have it completely different to that in their latest poll:

Headline UK General Election voting intention figures for Scotland are:

SNP: 51% (+7 compared with May 2022 Ipsos poll)
Scottish Conservatives: 13% (-6)
Scottish Labour: 25% (+2)
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (-4)
Scottish Green Party: 3% (unchanged)
Other: 2% (unchanged)

Scottish Independence
The poll shows a clear lead for Yes. Among those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate referendum, 56% say they would vote Yes and 44% No. Yes support is up 6 percentage points compared with our May 2022 poll.



https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/yes-pulls-ahead-and-snp-strengthens-support

Smile
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 15:50 - 07 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

You might be right, I might be right. Why don't you hold a referendum on it? Laughing
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PostPosted: 16:06 - 07 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
You might be right, I might be right. Why don't you hold a referendum on it? Laughing


Well they did but the result was wrong Wink
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 16:35 - 07 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:
You might be right, I might be right. Why don't you hold a referendum on it? Laughing


Well they did but the result was wrong Wink


Yeah, but things have changed since then! Laughing
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Islander
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PostPosted: 17:20 - 07 Dec 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
Easy-X wrote:


Well they did but the result was wrong Wink


Yeah, but things have changed since then! Laughing


Clearly they have.
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