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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 22:21 - 02 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:
I don't care how many cases there are. I'm more interested in the numbers of deaths and serious illness.

Are they not directly related?


The relation is not the important factor, as it never was with flu. The scale is the main thing. We have had 10s of thousands of deaths in a year from flu before, and no government mandated restrictions.

Quote:
chickenstrip wrote:
If it is no worse than flu

That's a matter of opinion.


I do not mean that the disease is no worse than flu, assuming you are in a vulnerable category and have not been vaccinated. I mean the scale of deaths and serious illness. Whilst initially Covid exceeded such numbers from flu, we never had the severe measures for flu which we have seen for Covid. The vaccines seem to be working even better than predicted, so no need for panic measures. If you haven't been vaccinated, take the necessary precautions to protect yourself. The responsibility is on you.

If you believe that the risk is still very high even having been vaccinated, then what would be the point of the vaccines? Are they or aren't they reducing deaths and serious illness, and the transmission of the virus to a significant degree?
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 22:28 - 02 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Personal responsibility? I thought that was being actively bred out of the population?! I read it on a website somewhere...

TBF I don't envy the government's position: lay out a reasoned and nuanced response and fair number of people won't understand it and a sizeable minority will maliciously misinterpret it. Go for a simple "one size fits all" approach and anyone with half a brain cries "help! help! I'm being oppressed!"
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 09:13 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, but Flu hasn't caused in the region of 150 thousand excess deaths in the UK caused by COVID despite the huge restrictions to try and combat it in recent history.

The last time there was flu deaths on the scale similar to COVID there were was no yearly vaccine to try and combat it.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:20 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Yes, but Flu hasn't caused in the region of 150 thousand excess deaths in the UK caused by COVID despite the huge restrictions to try and combat it in recent history.

The last time there was flu deaths on the scale similar to COVID there were was no yearly vaccine to try and combat it.


But we don't know that all those deaths were directly attributable to Covid.
I predict that flu deaths in future will rise. The reason? People not taking care of themselves. Obesity has been massively on the rise in the past few years, and it is a major contributing factor to the seriousness of illness of various kinds, and markedly so with respiratory illnesses. If you don't look after yourself anyway, you can't complain about the spread of Covid. Take personal responsibility for your health or STFU.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 18:41 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

This morning I had my second jab. All very professional as before; makes you proud. Give it a few days and I’ll be invincible, and possibly with a new superpower.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 19:20 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

staff back in offices by September

This seems to be the way. Working from home (WFH) has been handy if I needed to build a spreadsheet, Word document or workplan without other workplace-related distractions, or if I’m expecting an Amazon delivery, but the option was always available anyway, albeit not as readily.

Nevertheless, I’ve been on-site throughout the pandemic except for the occasional day WFH, and in fact I’ve tended to think those constantly home-based have had it easier.

However, I had hoped that a lack of centricity might ultimately cascade into the housing market, for example. It seems any perceived WFH advantages identified during the pandemic are going to be rejected when we get back to normal. Are there any lessons for work post-pandemic?
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Hong Kong Phooey
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PostPosted: 21:56 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Yes, but Flu hasn't caused in the region of 150 thousand excess deaths in the UK caused by COVID despite the huge restrictions to try and combat it in recent history.

The last time there was flu deaths on the scale similar to COVID there were was no yearly vaccine to try and combat it.


That number is over two seasons now, flu and pneumonia etc in the past has been attributed to cause between 30 to 40 thousand per year and that's with ready made and developed/tested vaccines that were already offered to the vulnerable groups.

And as always the 85 plus age group is the one primarily dying from either.

The difference isn't as immense as you'd think when you dig a bit beneath the surface.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 22:00 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Flu doesn't kill 30 to 40 thousand a year. Death rate in the UK is in the 450-500k a year. Last year (2020) there were 100k excess deaths on top of that bearing in mind COVID wasnt in the UK to any appreciable amount until March.

Thats 100k extra deaths in 9 months.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 22:05 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Working from home (WFH) has been handy if I needed to build a spreadsheet


I've always found the opposite. Building on on a laptop with a small screen pisses me off. A couple of big screens, a proper keyboard and a mouse suits me far better.

I just ignore people in the office when doing that. I can't do that with a child thats just fallen down the stairs.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 22:05 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Flu doesn't kill 30 to 40 thousand a year.


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

Interesting to note that the flu vaccines vary in effectiveness, with the most effective being about 50%.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 22:12 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:


Interesting to note that the flu vaccines vary in effectiveness, with the most effective being about 50%.


Flu mutates at a massive rate.

COVID doesn't.

44K at it's worst? In a single year? And thats just compared to summer.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 22:17 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

What was the average death rate in 2014 compared to the 10 years before and after?
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 22:22 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:


Interesting to note that the flu vaccines vary in effectiveness, with the most effective being about 50%.


Flu mutates at a massive rate.


What is the rate of flu mutation?

Quote:
COVID doesn't.


How many Covid mutations have their been so far? 4 isn't it? More? Since Jan last year.

Quote:
44K at it's worst?


But you said flu doesn't kill even that many in a year.
There was one year in excess of 60k, can't remember which now.

I am not sure what point you are trying to make. Covid was pretty bad. But the vaccines have already all but eradicated it in this country, certainly comparable with deaths from other illnesses now. This talk of a "third wave" - 5000 more cases? Cases, not deaths and serious illness. And they're still recording death certificates with Covid, when for a significant percentage (40%-ish) it wasn't the primary cause. Hardly a "wave" in a population over 60 million.

What is your point? Mine is that we are no longer in a position to require severe measures, and that the media is again scare-mongering unnecessarily.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 22:26 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree we are out of the worst of it but by the same token I don't see the media scare-mongering.

There may be a slight delay on the full relaxation but that will depend on whether the usual delay on cases being followed by hospitals being overwhelmed that happened with the two prior waves happens.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 22:28 - 03 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is no sign of "hospitals being overwhelmed", and currently no risk of it. 5000 CASES in the latest "wave". Not deaths and serious illness. CASES.
And the media most definitely ARE scare-mongering with this "third wave" nonsense.

Frankly Nobby, you, like the media, are full of shit Laughing

And what is the rate of flu mutation? Do enlighten me Smile
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UncleFester
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PostPosted: 07:51 - 04 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

I suspect some of the concern is that the vaccinated can still carry / spread it although they may not catch it.

So if you have enough spreaders and enough unvaccinated then i guess it's possible for a decent 3rd wave.

A little caution will harm no one.
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trevor saxe-coburg-gotha
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PostPosted: 07:53 - 04 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

One interesting upshot of the virus is an extremely dramatic downturn in the number of cases of bacterial gastroenteritis and similar. Now, it's true that this will be partly (largely?) down to the huge drop in restaurant trade, etc. - but it's also due to massively increased use of hand sanitizer across the population. Cryptosporidium, norovirus and salmonella are on the extinction list! Of course, I'm sure they'd bounce right back in the right circumstances. That said, a lot of the newly acquired hygiene habits courtesy of Covid will continue long into the future, I think. Some reckon that the fall in deaths from food poisoning are quite significant, and a serious off-set to those of Covid. Not sure how much substance there is to that speculation though.
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Hong Kong Phooey
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PostPosted: 09:02 - 04 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Flu doesn't kill 30 to 40 thousand a year. Death rate in the UK is in the 450-500k a year. Last year (2020) there were 100k excess deaths on top of that bearing in mind COVID wasnt in the UK to any appreciable amount until March.

Thats 100k extra deaths in 9 months.


... but spread over two seasons. If we had two bad flu seasons in a row that's just under 80k. So in all just roughly about twice as deadly as the flu.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 09:47 - 04 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

They like adding two years of covid to make a bigger number.

1999/2000 and 2004/5
Had much higher overall mortality due to flu, but we hardly even noticed.

https://i.postimg.cc/xCS4fK9h/covid.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/xCS4fK9h/covid.jpg
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 10:24 - 04 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

trevor saxe-coburg-gotha wrote:
That said, a lot of the newly acquired hygiene habits courtesy of Covid will continue long into the future, I think.


It would be nice to get at least one positive thing out of all this. I think the government should embark on a major campaign highlighting good hygiene habits while this is all still much in our minds. It wouldn't be a bad idea for places to keep hand sanitiser ready for public use into the future - supermarkets for one, government buildings perhaps, cafes and restaurants, maybe others.
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to v or not to v
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PostPosted: 10:55 - 04 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

doggone wrote:
They like adding two years of covid to make a bigger number.

1999/2000 and 2004/5
Had much higher overall mortality due to flu, but we hardly even noticed.



no man, the bodies were piling up in the morgues and the hospitals were over whelmed Rolling Eyes
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 10:57 - 04 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think many people are being fooled. Whilst things did get quite bad for a while, I also think we all remember how those 'emergency hospitals', or whatever they were called - Nightingale hospitals? - were never used.
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UncleFester
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PostPosted: 11:16 - 04 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Down here at least they did indeed have problems with morgues being full. Hospitals with chilled HGV sat around being used as spare morgue capacity whilst the funeral places caught up. Much like Supermarket supply chain management, this stuff has been designed to run very efficiently but not at the level of 'input' that has been required during Covid.

The Nightingale thing is neither here nor there, they never had enough staff to run those at even minimum capacity. Every friend I've got who works in the NHS said they have spent the last year and a bit running at or above capacity plus a bit and they are all exhausted. Either from the hours or the restrictions placed on how they can work.

You can't make that bit up.

However as Chickenman says, those times should be over and with careful removal of restrictions combined with a massively successful vaccination program - we should not need to go back to how things have been.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:26 - 04 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

UncleBFester wrote:


The Nightingale thing is neither here nor there, they never had enough staff to run those at even minimum capacity. Every friend I've got who works in the NHS said they have spent the last year and a bit running at or above capacity plus a bit and they are all exhausted. Either from the hours or the restrictions placed on how they can work.


Whilst I don't deny the extraordinary pressure they were under for a while, we forget that the NHS has been saying this for years every winter. Some extra investment certainly wouldn't go amiss, assuming it is spent on the right things. Maybe that's another good thing that will come out of this.
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UncleFester
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PostPosted: 11:29 - 04 Jun 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

What heats my urine are the idiots who still reckon this was all some kind of massive hoax / ruse.

I'd be the first to agree some folk got rich out of this but when do they not. Bent politicians, no surprise. Media without a single shred of truth in a story - shocker.

But those facts do not alter the other facts.

In total agreement that this has highlighted some ongoing issues and in some respects as you and others have said, we've come out of it better in a number of areas as a result of dealing with it.
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