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The next big crisis

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doggone
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PostPosted: 12:39 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: The next big crisis Reply with quote

Collapse in food production worldwide as fertiliser production has all but ceased due to high gas prices.
I would say crop yields could drop between 70% and 100% i.e total loss in countries which cannot source it at any price.

Currently what is available in the UK is priced about 400% up on six months ago with no delivery date available.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38305504
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Rob W
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PostPosted: 12:51 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

The way society is going, I think we deserve nothing less than a full on extinction event at the moment.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 12:51 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's always an element of panic mongering in these reports. With the BBC, that's even more likely.
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c_dug
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PostPosted: 12:53 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's funny really, the people are there, the resources are there, we have the technology to make what we need, and yet for the sake of a trivial concept called "money" we could see thousands across the world starve.
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Weisse Schlange
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PostPosted: 12:55 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just spoke to a guy in agriculture this morning who said the same. Said farmers couldn't decide what to plant as they cant figure out what fertilisers they can get or what ones they can afford.

Still don't think it will be the crisis they imply though.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 13:01 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
There's always an element of panic mongering in these reports. With the BBC, that's even more likely.

The BBC haven't mentioned it, that's an old link describing the process.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 13:20 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weisse Schlange wrote:
Just spoke to a guy in agriculture this morning who said the same. Said farmers couldn't decide what to plant as they cant figure out what grants they can get.
Still don't think it will be the crisis they imply though.


EFA
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 13:30 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

A couple of years of starvation and pillaging, then its a smaller population and a neo-feudal system for us.... Its time to buy some more crossbow bolts methinks.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 14:40 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
farmers couldn't decide what to plant as they cant figure out what grants they can get.
Still don't think it will be the crisis they imply though.

EFA

There aren't any for cropping or producing anything for that matter, funding is mostly focused on taking land out of production e.g. tree planting and that only covers costs of work done e.g fencing, guards.
If the cost of a major input rises massively, either the product price needs to jump up substantially too or it won't be grown.Substantial increased costs can't be covered by producers for long.
Ex farm prices now are not much higher than they were in the 70s and that means people have more money to spend on other stuff as they hardly use 25% of income for food. This will change dramatically.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 14:46 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

No wonder this place is going from strength to strength.
https://preppersshop.co.uk/

Seriously, I think it will get bad. Maybe not while I am around but some of you youngsters are going to get major shit when everything coincides. No power, dwindling food supplys, mass migration from the sub Sahara, martial law, no rum.

Get your apocalypse motorcycle built now. Store petrol because electricity will be in short supply and you won't be able to charge your Teslas.

We're doomed I say, DOOMED.
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c_dug
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PostPosted: 15:35 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cable Tie wrote:
NASA, .... , can categorically prove the Earth is getting greener and the Antarctic ice Cap is growing, not shrinking.


Source?
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 15:39 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

c_dug wrote:
Cable Tie wrote:
NASA, .... , can categorically prove the Earth is getting greener and the Antarctic ice Cap is growing, not shrinking.


Source?



He doesn't do sources
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 15:59 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well done on finding 2 six year old studies.

By the way, the ice sheet one is about a single area of Antarctica, not Antarctica as a whole.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 16:52 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

You do know slowing isn't stopping?

The earth is still heating up.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 18:23 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmm. The end of 2020 was 1 degree above the average for the 20th century but the start of 2021 is .8?

Clearly no data for 2021 because no line as well

Do you understand graphs?
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 19:18 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

doggone wrote:
There aren't any (grants) for cropping or producing anything for that matter, funding is mostly focused on taking land out of production

We’ll be fine for golf driving ranges, petting zoos and re-wilding then.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 19:35 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
doggone wrote:
There aren't any (grants) for cropping or producing anything for that matter, funding is mostly focused on taking land out of production

We’ll be fine for golf driving ranges, petting zoos and re-wilding then.


Well, my obnoxious cousin who owns a farm in east anglia is driving around in a 21 plate range rover and he is always moaning about how hard it is for farmers and how much the goverment need to subsidise farming. I know he certainly used to change crops to get the most out of the grants.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 19:46 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
Well, my obnoxious cousin who owns a farm in east anglia is driving around in a 21 plate range rover and he is always moaning about how hard it is for farmers and how much the goverment need to subsidise farming. I know he certainly used to change crops to get the most out of the grants.

Aye, there’s never enough rain to wash the mud off the Mercedes.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 21:09 - 14 Oct 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Population of planet at end of 19th Century ~1 billion. Population today heading to 7 billion. That's over 5 billion people in just over a century Shocked Mostly due to industrial-scale production of artificial fertilisers.
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