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2030 The death of personal vehicular transport?

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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 11:28 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: 2030 The death of personal vehicular transport? Reply with quote

With the impending ban on sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles in 2030 is ownership of personal vehicles over for most of us? By most of us i mean those on less than median income, is having a car or a bike going to become the preserve of only those with affluence?
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 11:48 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Re: 2030 The death of personal vehicular transport? Reply with quote

Ribenapigeon wrote:
With the impending ban on sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles in 2030 is ownership of personal vehicles over for most of us? By most of us i mean those on less than median income, is having a car or a bike going to become the preserve of only those with affluence?


I suppose it will come down to 'have 2nd hand electric cars dropped enough for the people that are now driving arounf on 51 plate cars?' 20 years oldish and the answer will be no, for many many years due to a lack of 2nd hand electric cars.

Another question is how good will second hand electric cars be. Chocked full of electronics that are probably irrepairable except at mainstream dealers for huge costs. Batteries that if need replacing will cost way more than the car did.

Add into this there is still no answer for people who haven't got a drive. Even now, just about every public charging point I come across has an electric car on it. There aren't enough points even now.

Personally I can see at least the hybrid car being allowed way beyond 2035 or whatever the date for them is.

The other thing is taxation. How will the gov make up the billions they get from various fuel taxes.

So yes, I agree with you. If everything goes to the preset dates, the electric car will ben the preserve of the relativly wealthy and the rest of society can do one.

If still alive I shall go electric though.....

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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 11:50 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nah. It's already moving to a more communal ownership of vehicles in urban areas anyway. I have a few mates in Edinburgh who no longer keep their own vehicle. They use car club apps and hire one, even by the hour, when they need one.

Even my father in law does this, he rents a car when he has longer journeys to do and reckons it works out cheaper than keeping and maintaining one.

Again, I reckon they're planning to move the mains gas network over to hydrogen at some point in the future (new gas boilers on a grant have to be hydrogen adaptable) which then gives a re-fueling infrastructure for zero emission vehicles. They are working on hydrogen ICEs, which have the potential to be pretty awesome in terms of performace, I could see them making small capacity, high compression motors that go like an early 90's 250 four.

How the hydrogen is produced is the subject of another debate.
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xX-Alex-Xx
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PostPosted: 11:54 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
Nah. It's already moving to a more communal ownership of vehicles in urban areas anyway. I have a few mates in Edinburgh who no longer keep their own vehicle. They use car club apps and hire one, even by the hour, when they need one.

Even my father in law does this, he rents a car when he has longer journeys to do and reckons it works out cheaper than keeping and maintaining one.

Again, I reckon they're planning to move the mains gas network over to hydrogen at some point in the future (new gas boilers on a grant have to be hydrogen adaptable) which then gives a re-fueling infrastructure for zero emission vehicles. They are working on hydrogen ICEs, which have the potential to be pretty awesome in terms of performace, I could see them making small capacity, high compression motors that go like an early 90's 250 four.

How the hydrogen is produced is the subject of another debate.


Hydrogen is going to be the new BEV. Government has a history of encouraging the wrong technology ....

Petrol was king -> Petrol is bad for environment, get diesel -> diesel is bad for environment, get battery -> batteries suck and bad for environment -> get hydrogen car.


stinkwheel wrote:


They are working on hydrogen ICEs, which have the potential to be pretty awesome in terms of performace, I could see them making small capacity, high compression motors that go like an early 90's 250 four.


Honda made the FCX a while ago and it looks like a really decent car. Couple zero emissions with minutes to refuel and you've got a winner...
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 12:41 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:

How the hydrogen is produced is the subject of another debate.


Hydrogen is a stupid way of transporting energy from one place to another. It takes more energy to electrolyse it from water than you get from burning or reacting it. Current 'brown' hydrogen is produced by a very nasty hydrocarbon cracking process...

I don't think Hydrogen will ever be any kind of deal except perhaps for fuelling internal combustion vehicles in remote areas where there is no mains electricity or something.
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xX-Alex-Xx
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PostPosted: 13:07 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

MarJay wrote:

Hydrogen is a stupid way of transporting energy from one place to another. It takes more energy to electrolyse it from water than you get from burning or reacting it. Current 'brown' hydrogen is produced by a very nasty hydrocarbon cracking process...


And we only get about 30-40% of the energy from petrol too, the rest is wasted. At least the option for green hydrogen is there.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 13:08 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

To create electricity it takes more energy than the amount you get from the electricity. It's the norm with all energy changes. The main criteria for producing power a certain way can be many things, cost, efficiency and now ecology.

I don't see any reason not to think hydrogen has any less potential than any other form of energy purely driven by the climate change criteia.
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 14:01 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

xX-Alex-Xx wrote:
MarJay wrote:

Hydrogen is a stupid way of transporting energy from one place to another. It takes more energy to electrolyse it from water than you get from burning or reacting it. Current 'brown' hydrogen is produced by a very nasty hydrocarbon cracking process...


And we only get about 30-40% of the energy from petrol too, the rest is wasted. At least the option for green hydrogen is there.


I think you've missed the point there. We do only get 30% of the energy available IN the fuel, but the effort to extract the fuel is still less than the energy you get out of the fuel because we don't make it, we refine it from crude oil. With Hydrogen we need electricity to produce it (cleanly) when we could just distribute that electricity to the grid and use it to charge batteries. The losses would be so much less doing that and we don't need a new non existent storage and distribution network for Hydrogen. Compressing the hydrogen alone takes stupid amounts of energy and that's not even including the actual H2 production from electrolysis.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 14:08 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Theres lots of discussion on the future technology issues but im wondering about the social issues of a large section of society being thrown back in time to the days when a car and even a motorcycle was the preserve of the more affluent.
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 14:21 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ribenapigeon wrote:
Theres lots of discussion on the future technology issues but im wondering about the social issues of a large section of society being thrown back in time to the days when a car and even a motorcycle was the preserve of the more affluent.


If public transport works then it doesn't matter as much. I think people will still have cars and bikes but there will be less enthusiasm for them as a hobby, and they'll have to put up with the limitations of slow charging etc.

Prices of electric vehicles will come down to match the cheaper of the internal combustion counterparts, that's what technology does. We may also crack the fast charging and range conundrums without denting the performance numbers of the vehicle too much. I predict a world where we carry on *pretty much* as we are now, but instead of petrol or diesel engines our vehicles are electric.

What is more of an issue to us as motorcyclists is self driving vehicles. Motorcyclists are an anomaly in a world where nobody drives and everything on the road needs to be predictable via algorithm, sensor and CPU.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 14:27 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

MarJay wrote:


I think you've missed the point there. We do only get 30% of the energy available IN the fuel, but the effort to extract the fuel is still less than the energy you get out of the fuel because we don't make it, we refine it from crude oil. With Hydrogen we need electricity to produce it (cleanly) when we could just distribute that electricity to the grid and use it to charge batteries. The losses would be so much less doing that and we don't need a new non existent storage and distribution network for Hydrogen. Compressing the hydrogen alone takes stupid amounts of energy and that's not even including the actual H2 production from electrolysis.


What are the transfer losses in electricity coming from a wind farm in Catihness to the central belt of Scotland? Google says average transmission loss over the UK grid is in the region of 8%.

Once you've made your hydrogen, if you are transporting it via pipeline, the losses are negligeable.

Arguably, if the hydrogen is "green" then a lossy system is ok as long as capacity is big enough.

In any case, what we really need to do is find a way of rapidly storing energy as an easily transportable and reversible form of "work done". Batteries do this but fail dismally on the "rapid" part. Perhaps supercapacitors are one avenue to go down. They used to deliver electricity to remote farms in accumulators to run milking machines.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 14:49 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

MarJay wrote:


I think you've missed the point there. We do only get 30% of the energy available IN the fuel, but the effort to extract the fuel is still less than the energy you get out of the fuel because we don't make it, we refine it from crude oil.


Which we have to expend energy to extract it out of the ground, transport and then refine it. It's not sitting there waiting to be used. They are just as valid parts of the creation of petrol as sticking electrodes in seawater and using electricity to create hydrogen.

Also the transportation of liquid hydrogen in ships is already being tested. It's a jump, but not the greastest leap from transporting liquified natural gas (methane) at -160C (which we have been doing for 60 odd years to transporting liquified Hydrogen.

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/too-cold-handle-race-is-pioneer-shipping-hydrogen-2021-05-11/
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 15:30 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

MarJay wrote:
Ribenapigeon wrote:
Theres lots of discussion on the future technology issues but im wondering about the social issues of a large section of society being thrown back in time to the days when a car and even a motorcycle was the preserve of the more affluent.


If public transport works then it doesn't matter as much. I think people will still have cars and bikes but there will be less enthusiasm for them as a hobby, and they'll have to put up with the limitations of slow charging etc.

Prices of electric vehicles will come down to match the cheaper of the internal combustion counterparts, that's what technology does. We may also crack the fast charging and range conundrums without denting the performance numbers of the vehicle too much. I predict a world where we carry on *pretty much* as we are now, but instead of petrol or diesel engines our vehicles are electric.

What is more of an issue to us as motorcyclists is self driving vehicles. Motorcyclists are an anomaly in a world where nobody drives and everything on the road needs to be predictable via algorithm, sensor and CPU.


Public transport looks like the same s#itty experience its been for years, I see a lot of poorer workers very pissed off being forced to hope a hydrogen bus turns up so they can get to and from a job they used to be able to use a car for. The car might have been an old banger but it's preferable to a wet bus stop. Also what about the price of fuel for combustion engine cars? That's going to rocket so again pushing the sub average wage worker onto crappy public transport.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 16:34 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

MK council put a survey out asking what people wanted to make them stop using cars. The winning suggestion by a mile was a comprehensive walk on walk off tram system.

When the council started talking about implementing what was aksed they totally ignored the tram and went on about improving the buses which are utter utter sh1t by the way.

Funny that when MK development coorperation were in charge of setting up the city back in the 70's and 80's a tram system was part of their plans. When the council was formed to take over from them it was dropped like a hot potatoe.
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 17:52 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:


Also the transportation of liquid hydrogen in ships is already being tested. It's a jump, but not the greastest leap from transporting liquified natural gas (methane) at -160C (which we have been doing for 60 odd years to transporting liquified Hydrogen.

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/too-cold-handle-race-is-pioneer-shipping-hydrogen-2021-05-11/


It's all being tested, it's still a dead end. Hydrogen doesn't travel in pipelines easily, it's hard to store, hard to compress and it's energy density is tiny. The energy loss from electrolysing and compressing it is enormous, far more than the energy you get out of it, and far more than the 8% loss in a power line. Hydrogen is not the future.

It *could* theoretically be used in shipping, air craft, cars etc, but it's just not as good as other solutions.

The reason why it's appealing to the likes of us is that it means we get to keep our reciprocating combustion engines without too much of a change. Even then I think that fuel cells are more efficient, but still not efficient enough. You might as well charge a battery.
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Bhud
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PostPosted: 18:03 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

THIS is the shit:

https://www.prometheusfuels.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6iQlkUXUsE

It's already viable for passenger aircraft.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 18:30 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

People designing public transport systems get caught up in minutiae and forget that for people to use them it needs to be at least one, (preferably two) of the following: 1) Quicker. 2) Cheaper. 3) More convenient. Than taking your car.

Most systems don't even tick one of the boxes and many only tick the third box because local government has spent all their time and effort making the car less convenient rather than the public transport more convenient.

The Edinburgh trams were a classic case. The boss of one of the large Edinburgh bus companies went on record saying for what they spent on the trams, he could have made his entire bus service free. Forever. Now THAT would have been an innovative public transport strategy and at no more cost than the white elephant they already built (most people I know won't use one on general principal given the truly horrific amount of public money that was squandered on it).
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TbirdX
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PostPosted: 19:22 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is a model that suggests private vehicle ownership will largely cease.

Google, Tesla, Amazon, Uber, The Government will own all the cars. Citizens pay a 'tax' and download the app and when you want to go somewhere you summon a driverless car and it turns up. You get in, get driven to your destination and get out. The car goes off to its next job, or charger or whatever. Repeat to fade.
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MCN
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PostPosted: 19:23 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Inertia Storage (not flywheel/turbine) charged by solar, wind geothermal, ground/air source.
You have a tower with a fuk-off counterweight inside it.
When the sun shines/wind blows and your house is not using the power, a motor drives a mechanism to hoist the fuk-off counterweight up the tower.
When the fuk-off counterweight is released it drives the motor in reverse to make electricity.
Or a shaft in the back garden could work as well. (No pun)

Probably no one has invented that system yet.

As hydrocarbons become less eco-friendly it will become increasingly difficult to buy the stuff.

Wood gas generation would address that though. (If there are any trees left.)
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PostPosted: 19:48 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Re: 2030 The death of personal vehicular transport? Reply with quote

Ribenapigeon wrote:
With the impending ban on sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles in 2030 is ownership of personal vehicles over for most of us? By most of us i mean those on less than median income, is having a car or a bike going to become the preserve of only those with affluence?


Yes.

Taken together with all the nutty road schemes I believe that the plan is not that we'll all go electric but that most of us won't drive at all.

Not that I'm over bothered, I'll be retired by then.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 20:13 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
MK council put a survey out asking what people wanted to make them stop using cars. The winning suggestion by a mile was a comprehensive walk on walk off tram system.

When the council started talking about implementing what was aksed they totally ignored the tram and went on about improving the buses which are utter utter sh1t by the way.

Funny that when MK development coorperation were in charge of setting up the city back in the 70's and 80's a tram system was part of their plans. When the council was formed to take over from them it was dropped like a hot potatoe.


When i finish a shift at 11pm i dont want a f#@cking tram vus ir bicycle.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 20:15 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
People designing public transport systems get caught up in minutiae and forget that for people to use them it needs to be at least one, (preferably two) of the following: 1) Quicker. 2) Cheaper. 3) More convenient. Than taking your car.



....and devoid of the usual crowd of objectionable people on it.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 20:18 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

MCN wrote:
Inertia Storage (not flywheel/turbine) charged by solar, wind geothermal, ground/air source.
You have a tower with a fuk-off counterweight inside it.
When the sun shines/wind blows and your house is not using the power, a motor drives a mechanism to hoist the fuk-off counterweight up the tower.
When the fuk-off counterweight is released it drives the motor in reverse to make electricity.
Or a shaft in the back garden could work as well. (No pun)

Probably no one has invented that system yet.

)


There's a test one in Edinburgh. Theyre thinking old coal mines could be used to make comercial ones.
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xX-Alex-Xx
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PostPosted: 20:35 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

MCN wrote:
Inertia Storage (not flywheel/turbine) charged by solar, wind geothermal, ground/air source.
You have a tower with a fuk-off counterweight inside it.
When the sun shines/wind blows and your house is not using the power, a motor drives a mechanism to hoist the fuk-off counterweight up the tower.
When the fuk-off counterweight is released it drives the motor in reverse to make electricity.
Or a shaft in the back garden could work as well. (No pun)

Probably no one has invented that that yet


Not exactly efficient. Even a 10 ton weight suspended 100m off the ground only has 2.7kWh of energy. It’s been invented, it’s just shit for storing energy.
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ThatDippyTwat
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PostPosted: 20:58 - 11 Nov 2021    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
They are working on hydrogen ICEs, which have the potential to be pretty awesome in terms of performace, I could see them making small capacity, high compression motors that go like an early 90's 250 four.

JCB and associated companies have sunk a pile of cash into this, albeit with a view to replacing larger diesel engines. No doubt they'll have offshoots and R&D that's also suited to smaller higher performance motors though.
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