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Val
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 Posted: 13:14 - 20 Feb 2022  Post subject: Is there war looming in Europe and Ukraine? |
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I think not. Putin understands only the language of force. As soon as US and NATO stay strong and help Ukraine there will be no large scale war there.
See today's US Air Force JSTARS plane patrolling the air above Kiev:
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-february-us-air-force-e8c-joint-stars-950121-redeye6-running
US already is providing tactical support and intelligence to Ukrainian forces and Putin will pay a very high price in lost tanks, fighter jets and body bags in case he invades Ukraine.
https://i.imgur.com/YN5NdP9.jpg
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Im-a-Ridah
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Posted: 14:25 - 20 Feb 2022  Post subject: |
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Those are not combat aircraft, they are just gathering intel. Those planes have been running sorties for weeks, mostly RC135 electronic intel jets, JSTARS radar recon jets, Global Hawk drones and U2 spy planes. There is also radar and visual satellite data but this isn't being made public, we only get to see the public Maxar images.
Right now there is one RC135V, one over the Black sea (HOMER71) watching Russian naval forces at Sevastopol, one RC135W over Ukraine (JAKE12), and HERC37 which is fake code for an aircraft at 57,000 feet which is probably a JSTARS judging by its flight profile which matches a side facing SAR radar.
The Russians are not invading because Boris and Putin keep exposing Russia's false flags. He can't claim something was unexpected if it was all over the new 3 days previous, and you can tell from the Russian foreign minister's reaction that this constant leaking of their secret false flag plans is really, really annoying them.
Can he invade though? Absolutely. But he needs a good excuse first. There seem to have been 2 false starts so far. One was a bit of shelling, and another was a car bomb attack, but neither got the traction the Russians had hoped for. We haven't seen any intel on the Ukranian forces but I hope they are laying the groundwork for a defence, most importantly this means rigging bridges with explosives. I would also like to see them dig some massive trenches along the roads to Kyiv and replace with them with temporary steel and wood roads, with explosives and pillboxes of course. None of this "stops" invasion but it really slows down any armoured advance. Land mines could also be placed in the forests around these blockages.
The final step is offence, and its much harder for them to take. The Ukranians do have some cruise (Korshun-2, 700km) and ballistic missiles (Hrim-2, 500km), these can hit Moscow from near the Ukranian northern border. They probably only have a few of each but it would certainly be a shock for the people of Moscow. They are already planning to attack Russian naval fleets with their newly developed anti-shipping missiles. Ideally the Ukranian special forces would go north into Russia and start blowing stuff up.
Team 1: Any major rail bridge in Moscow. More if they have time
Team 2: Shaturskaya Gres power plant
Team 3: Vologda power plant
Team 4: Kashira Power Plant
Team 5, 6: Any other overhead power lines into Moscow
Lights out in Moscow. |
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hellkat
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| Posted: 14:32 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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Crikey! Wall-o-words for a Sunday lunchtime 
Isn't that what the other thread is about?
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Polarbear
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| Posted: 15:00 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: Re: Is there war looming in Europe and Ukraine? |
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But you said Germany will tell them not to so they won't. What's this reliance on the good old USofA to bail out the toothless EU or is it that they don't really want to upset Russia in case they won't let them have any gas?
I think Merkel is still a commie at heart. ex DDR and probably a lick arse of the Russians. She's still pulling the strings in the EU. Don't worry Val, you'll soon be back under Russias jackboot.
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stinkwheel
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Posted: 15:18 - 20 Feb 2022  Post subject: |
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If they push their luck too hard, NATO will tell Russia they can either back off or they will offer membership to all the former Soviet states bordering Russia then put in and enforce a no-fly zone, which is exactly what they don't want to happen.
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Im-a-Ridah
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| Posted: 16:14 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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| stinkwheel wrote: | If they push their luck too hard, NATO will tell Russia they can either back off or they will offer membership to all the former Soviet states bordering Russia then put in and enforce a no-fly zone, which is exactly what they don't want to happen. |
In reality NATO could not enforce such a no-fly zone. Technically NATO has a much better air force and more aircraft, but the Russian air force is very big and well armed.
The Russians
Sukhoi Su-57 = 15
Sukhoi Su27,Su30, Su33 = 341
SU-34 = 131
Mikoyan MiG-29, 31, 35 = 442
Total: ~931
For comparison
RAF
Eurofighter: 101 active, (137 total)
F35: 23
German Air Force
Eurofighter: 141
Tornado: 99 (not fighter capable)
French air force
Rafale: 137
Mirage 2000: 108
So around 800 decent fighter jets. Taking out that air force would result in losses equivalent to the total of several European air forces. And that's before you consider the vast number of air defence systems Russia has.
- 57 S300/S400 battalions, each with a radar and 6 launchers (24 missiles). Supposedly 2000 S300/S400 SAMS. These are long range, high performance missiles
- around 700 medium range SAMs
- another 700 short range SAMs
Our military has been shredded. We aren't in a position to enforce a no-fly zone near the Russian border, but they definitely can! |
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stinkwheel
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| Posted: 16:26 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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| Im-a-Ridah wrote: |
In reality NATO could not enforce such a no-fly zone. Technically NATO has a much better air force and more aircraft, but the Russian air force is very big and well armed.
The Russians
Sukhoi Su-57 = 15
Sukhoi Su27,Su30, Su33 = 341
SU-34 = 131
Mikoyan MiG-29, 31, 35 = 442
Total: ~931
For comparison
RAF
Eurofighter: 101 active, (137 total)
F35: 23
German Air Force
Eurofighter: 141
Tornado: 99 (not fighter capable)
French air force
Rafale: 137
Mirage 2000: 108
So around 800 decent fighter jets. Taking out that air force would result in losses equivalent to the total of several European air forces. And that's before you consider the vast number of air defence systems Russia has.
- 57 S300/S400 battalions, each with a radar and 6 launchers (24 missiles). Supposedly 2000 S300/S400 SAMS. These are long range, high performance missiles
- around 700 medium range SAMs
- another 700 short range SAMs
Our military has been shredded. We aren't in a position to enforce a no-fly zone near the Russian border, but they definitely can! |
What they have and what they could actually put in the air are two different things.
You also didn't count USA which is also part of NATO and has fighter aircraft coming out of their ears. Nearly 1,000 F16s among other things.
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Val
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| Posted: 17:00 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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| Im-a-Ridah wrote: | Those are not combat aircraft, they are just gathering intel. |
Which intel can be used to attack Russia targets. I am not saying NATO will ever fight against Russia. It is enough to provide tactical support and intel do that Ukrainian forces can destroy tanks and other targets.
Also JSTARS are literally frontline weapons based on their intel in th 1st Gulf war US destroyed hundreds of Saddam tanks.
| Quote: |
Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (Joint STARS). The systems advanced radar, computer and communications technologies combined to create a surveillance, targeting and battle management system.
JSTARS is to ground targets what AWACS is to airborne targets. JSTARS has the capability to detect, precisely locate and track thousands of fixed and mobile targets on the ground over an area larger than 20,000 square kilometers from a stand-off distance in excess of 250 kilometers. Targets it can detect include: fighting vehicles, helicopters, low-speed aircraft, missile launchers, rotating antennas, ships/barges, tanks, trucks/convoys. |
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/weapons/stars.html
I have a friend of mine bulgarian who was bulgarian army special forces captain and now trains Ukranians and fights in Donbass for several years. Putin will be for a huge surprise if he decides to do invasion in Ukraine.
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Val
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Im-a-Ridah
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| Posted: 17:07 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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| stinkwheel wrote: | | Im-a-Ridah wrote: |
In reality NATO could not enforce such a no-fly zone. Technically NATO has a much better air force and more aircraft, but the Russian air force is very big and well armed.
The Russians
Sukhoi Su-57 = 15
Sukhoi Su27,Su30, Su33 = 341
SU-34 = 131
Mikoyan MiG-29, 31, 35 = 442
Total: ~931
For comparison
RAF
Eurofighter: 101 active, (137 total)
F35: 23
German Air Force
Eurofighter: 141
Tornado: 99 (not fighter capable)
French air force
Rafale: 137
Mirage 2000: 108
So around 800 decent fighter jets. Taking out that air force would result in losses equivalent to the total of several European air forces. And that's before you consider the vast number of air defence systems Russia has.
- 57 S300/S400 battalions, each with a radar and 6 launchers (24 missiles). Supposedly 2000 S300/S400 SAMS. These are long range, high performance missiles
- around 700 medium range SAMs
- another 700 short range SAMs
Our military has been shredded. We aren't in a position to enforce a no-fly zone near the Russian border, but they definitely can! |
What they have and what they could actually put in the air are two different things.
You also didn't count USA which is also part of NATO and has fighter aircraft coming out of their ears. Nearly 1,000 F16s among other things. |
As I said...
| Im-a-Ridah wrote: | NATO has a much better air force and more aircraft |
But the fact remains that in order to enforce a no fly-zone against a country with 900 decent fighters and 2000 long range and very advanced SAMs we are going to take losses on an incredible scale, a scale that far exceeds the combined size of the air forces of France, Germany and the UK. The US is not interested in seeing it's air force lose a significant percentage of its forces, and much of the European air forces wiped out just to enforce this fly zone! They want to fight China, not Russia. There is also the small matter that most of the American air force is in the US, and bringing them to Europe could actually cause the war we are trying to prevent.
On availability you are quite right, what you have and what is available are very different but we don't have availability figures for both sides. In the case of the German air force according to this DW article availability is:
Typhoon (in service): 128
Typhoon (flyable): 39 (inc the 10)
Typhoon (combat capable): 10
https://www.dw.com/en/only-4-of-germanys-128-eurofighter-jets-combat-ready-report/a-43611873
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Im-a-Ridah
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| Posted: 17:13 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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| Val wrote: | | Im-a-Ridah wrote: | Those are not combat aircraft, they are just gathering intel. |
Which intel can be used to attack Russia targets. I am not saying NATO will ever fight against Russia. It is enough to provide tactical support and intel do that Ukrainian forces can destroy tanks and other targets.
Also JSTARS are literally frontline weapons based on their intel in th 1st Gulf war US destroyed hundreds of Saddam tanks.
| Quote: |
Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (Joint STARS). The systems advanced radar, computer and communications technologies combined to create a surveillance, targeting and battle management system.
JSTARS is to ground targets what AWACS is to airborne targets. JSTARS has the capability to detect, precisely locate and track thousands of fixed and mobile targets on the ground over an area larger than 20,000 square kilometers from a stand-off distance in excess of 250 kilometers. Targets it can detect include: fighting vehicles, helicopters, low-speed aircraft, missile launchers, rotating antennas, ships/barges, tanks, trucks/convoys. |
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/weapons/stars.html
I have a friend of mine bulgarian who was bulgarian army special forces captain and now trains Ukranians and fights in Donbass for several years. Putin will be for a huge surprise if he decides to do invasion in Ukraine. |
Yes, the intel will be used to attack Russian targets by Ukraine. And Russia will take absolutely monster losses if the Ukranians fight. I mean it will be absolute blood bath. It doesn't mean the Russians won't invade though, just like the Chinese will invade Taiwan anyway. |
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 18:03 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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It used to be said that it wasn't possible for nuclear powers to go to war without eventually breaking out the nukes. Maybe firstly using tactical (so-called "battlefield") nukes when things start going awry for one side or the other, then escalating uncontrollably from there. So what has changed? Is it possible for NATO to oppose a strike by Russia without escalation? So I don't think the West would use military action to retaliate against incursions into Ukraine. Sanctions and lots of noisy protest, nothing more. And then watch Europe lose a chunk of its gas and oil supplies. But at least then we'll see how realistic it is to go green in a hurry Edit: or more likely resort to coal in a hurry, and watch fracking suddenly get the green light - green in a different way!
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Last edited by chickenstrip on 18:07 - 20 Feb 2022; edited 1 time in total |
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| Posted: 18:05 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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| Im-a-Ridah wrote: | just like the Chinese will invade Taiwan anyway. |
 Shhhh! You're not supposed to talk about that!
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stinkwheel
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| Posted: 18:29 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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Or here's one to put the boot on the other foot. What if Europe stopped buying their gas?
I'm sure the UK would be prepared to negotiate selling them some of our shipped LPG quota and de-mothballing some of our North Sea reserves...
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 18:33 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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We wouldn't be here if Trump was still POTUS!
ReeeeEEEeEEEEeeeee!
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Im-a-Ridah
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| Posted: 18:39 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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| Val wrote: | | Im-a-Ridah wrote: |
Yes, the intel will be used to attack Russian targets by Ukraine. And Russia will take absolutely monster losses if the Ukranians fight. I mean it will be absolute blood bath. It doesn't mean the Russians won't invade though, just like the Chinese will invade Taiwan anyway. |
If Russia invades and China also attacks Taiwan we are all screwed. There is no way to stop nuclear war after that.
My hopes are in US staying strong with Ukraine whilst France and Germany manage to broker some kind of peace. Macron just got some kind of agreement with Putin about ceasefire. Unless Putin uses that as a distraction.
Well it will be over soon. Let us all prepare for war and hope for peace. Si vis pacem, para bellum
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-crisis-putin-and-macron-agree-to-try-to-secure-ceasefire-in-eastern-ukraine-and-urgent-summit/ar-AAU59JG |
This is why this conflict is so difficult. NATO (and specifically the US) needs to stand firm and be tough on Russia to deter China invading Taiwan, but at the same time Putin needs to be given scope to stand down with pride and looking tough. Putin doesn't respect Macron, he sees him as a joke and nobody and will go back any assurances in a heartbreat. Biden is seen as weak and incompetent which is why so many countries are seeing this as the golden opportunity, even though defence policy in the US is actually bipartisan.
China: wants to replace the US as the dominant power in Asia
Russia: Wants to look tough after the fall of its empire and reunite the ethnic white Slavs, and keep the country ethnic white slavic
Macron: Wants to be seen as the leader of Europe, but given that Britain got the EU security leadership role it sounds like the other EU countries aren't too keen on French dominance
US: Wants to hold China down, retain it's global superpower status and maintain the US Dollar reserve status
UK: Has no real strategic objectives. The civil servants like playing European diplomat and the military likes its access to America's military capabilities. A bit here, a bit there. |
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Im-a-Ridah
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Val
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| Posted: 18:56 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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| Im-a-Ridah wrote: | | stinkwheel wrote: | Or here's one to put the boot on the other foot. What if Europe stopped buying their gas?
I'm sure the UK would be prepared to negotiate selling them some of our shipped LPG quota and de-mothballing some of our North Sea reserves... |
Russians would be bankrupt. I think Europe could survive it. It might even get them to get real on energy, a blessing in disguise. |
The problem with that is if you stop buying Russian gas now that will leave Putin with nothing to lose means nothing to stop him invading.
If he invades not only EU will stop buying Russia gas, there will be way more sever sanctions like stopping all bank transactions in dollars and euros.
The problem is the West has left Putin for too long after Crimea anexation without having any strategy about how to deal with him.
You need long term strategy to fight Putin's new cold war.
It may sounds counterintuitive but you need more ties with Russia to have more leverage. And than use that leverage to try exporting democracy.
| chickenstrip wrote: | We wouldn't be here if Trump was still POTUS!
ReeeeEEEeEEEEeeeee!
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Yes we would have been in much worst place. Ukraine, the Baltic and half of Europe would have been part of Russia now.
Trump was impeached for withholding millions in military aid to Ukraine and emboldened Putin.
| Quote: |
80 times Trump talked about Putin |
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2017/03/politics/trump-putin-russia-timeline/
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 19:10 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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Lol.
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GettinBetter
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| Posted: 22:57 - 20 Feb 2022 Post subject: |
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When was trump Impeached? Sounds like jakanory to me. Show me evidence. Lots tried but all turned out to be bullshite.
..and who the fuck would dare to use CNN as a reference. The biggest lying lefty wokist gobshites in the world.
Stick to judicial Watch. |
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 2 years, 64 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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