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ThunderGuts
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PostPosted: 07:47 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Aspiring vehicles Reply with quote

So, a thread on a Facebook forum got me thinking - it was talking specifically about Honda C90s and how some are paying close to £5k for concourse condition examples. This phenomenon isn't limited to C90s, in terms of bikes that's the obvious and perhaps extreme example that I know about, but certainly with cars it's even more ridiculous how some vehicles (seems to be mainly 80s and early 90s cars at the moment) are spiralling. Ford Escorts, Sierras, BMW 3 series, Golf GTIs etc. - you name it, there are loads of vehicles from that era that seem to be on an upward trajectory in value.

This brings me to where my original thought was going; how long will this go on for? Extreme example; no petrol available anywhere, any petrol-engined vehicle will become a museum exhibit which surely will reduce their value with the exception of particularly unusual and/or pretty vehicles. What about between now and then? We're seeing plenty of signs that there is strong intention to phase out petrol in the coming 20 years. Once electrics gain a greater market share (and become more affordable, probably) it becomes increasingly likely that authorities will start to introduce ever more onerous emissions-linked zones, maybe even banning IC vehicles completely.

Makes me wonder how far away the peak is of these vehicles as their growth in value surely can't be sustained in a world where petrol is scarce and the use of it prohibited (or at least, strongly discouraged).
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blurredman
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PostPosted: 09:07 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Have you never seen Mad Max, or Waterworld, or the Walking Dead?

Anything is possible! Cool Laughing
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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PostPosted: 10:15 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

There will likely always be petrol, but you'll need to go buy it from the last petrol station for 40 miles as it is now a boutique item and not the commodity that it once was. You'll be paying in pounds per litre for the joy of it too.

The only fuel that will persist in great quantity or use is diesel and it will only be for HGVs as there is no viable electric vehicle for this in the short (or maybe even middle) term.

It's probably coming sooner than you think. What interests me is how the Government is going to raise all the lost money in fuel duty and how countries which have been oil and gas economies will survive when all of Europe and North America have wholly switched to solar, wind and nuclear for power and electric vehicles for transportation.

OK, the world will still need hydrocarbons for jet fuel, plastics, etc but a significant of world production is solely for vehicle fuel and that demand will be evaporating pretty quick.
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B5234FT
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PostPosted: 11:47 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

The majority of the highest priced vehicles are never driven anyway so petrol availability is a moot point.

Petrol will however be available, even only as race fuel in drums, for a long time!
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 12:12 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

My guess would be the production of synthetic fuel will rise a little, just enough to keep the richer among us to be able to fuel IC cars, when the rest of us are driving Leafs, Zoes, Teslas, Kias and Mustang Mach E's. Jay Leno has it right, the hybrids and electric cars are the cars that will enable the enthusiast to keep their dinosaur burner cars going.

What he doesn't say, is that only the very rich will be able to afford it. Apparently Shell have put £30 million into a synthetic fuel plant in South America somewhere and loads of petrolheads are like "Great! Synthetic fuels will take over from fossil!" No, compared to how much fossil fuels we use in cars and bikes, it's a literal drop in the ocean.

There'll be a combination of synthetic fuel, electrification and maybe Hydrogen in remote areas and for heavy construction machinery. Don't tell me Hydrogen will replace it all, because it won't. There are too many impracticalities in the production, compression and storage of it. Don't tell me Electric is everything because a lot of people won't ever let it. And don't tell me synthetic fuel is the way forward because it'll be expensive and hard to produce.

The world is never going to be the way it was for the last 100 years, and I just hope that we end up with something that is acceptable within our lifestyles.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 12:57 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

In theory it would only be a couple of hours work to convert my enfield bullet to run on ethanol. Another day to bump the compression to something silly.
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A100man
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PostPosted: 15:47 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
In theory it would only be a couple of hours work to convert my enfield bullet to run on ethanol. Another day to bump the compression to something silly.


How much ethanol is used in that Sugar Cane brew that they use in the Beetles in Brazil? Any ideas? 100% even?

You could always go the other way and adjust it to run on aviation fuel maybe ?
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pepperami
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PostPosted: 16:31 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Won’t collectors swap out the petrol/diesel engine for an electric motor and keep on driving?
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 17:36 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

A100man wrote:


How much ethanol is used in that Sugar Cane brew that they use in the Beetles in Brazil? Any ideas? 100% even?

You could always go the other way and adjust it to run on aviation fuel maybe ?


You can get E85 in a lot of Europe. Mmm. 105 octane.
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Robby
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PostPosted: 19:42 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
In theory it would only be a couple of hours work to convert my enfield bullet to run on ethanol. Another day to bump the compression to something silly.


I've had similar thoughts for my old CB250RS. Temptation to create alcohol from allotment waste and distil it in a solar powered still.

I'm probably going to burn down my garden fence.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 19:51 - 09 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

or go blind....
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 09:39 - 10 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Robby wrote:
stinkwheel wrote:
In theory it would only be a couple of hours work to convert my enfield bullet to run on ethanol. Another day to bump the compression to something silly.


I've had similar thoughts for my old CB250RS. Temptation to create alcohol from allotment waste and distil it in a solar powered still.

I'm probably going to burn down my garden fence.


MCM did a bit with a guy who made his own bio-diesel so anything's possible Smile
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Blah blah
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PostPosted: 19:23 - 10 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Petrol will still be around in 20 years and probably much longer and in that time, all of the desirable bikes and cars will become more desirable as people buy them for the last hurrah.

The last 'hurrah' being the reason for most of the vehicles we currently own !
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 19:32 - 10 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I recently found out Halfords still do big cans of 20W50 oil. When's the last time a vehicle rolled out the factory needing that?
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tatters
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PostPosted: 20:02 - 10 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
As I recently found out Halfords still do big cans of 20W50 oil. When's the last time a vehicle rolled out the factory needing that?


Most air cooled V-twins run on 20w50 l presume the likes of HD are still making them?
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 20:12 - 10 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

blurredman wrote:
Have you never seen Mad Max,

Last of the V8 Interceptors. Lucky man… apart from the post-apocalypse and all that.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 12:10 - 11 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

tatters wrote:
Easy-X wrote:
As I recently found out Halfords still do big cans of 20W50 oil. When's the last time a vehicle rolled out the factory needing that?


Most air cooled V-twins run on 20w50 l presume the likes of HD are still making them?


Fair point... although metric twins seem to use 10W30 or 10W40 Thinking
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tatters
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PostPosted: 16:41 - 11 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:


Fair point... although metric twins seem to use 10W30 or 10W40 Thinking


That's because they have tighter tolerances and run in a cooler temperature ranges so can use thinner oils.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 18:26 - 11 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:
There will likely always be petrol, but you'll need to go buy it from the last petrol station for 40 miles as it is now a boutique item and not the commodity that it once was. You'll be paying in pounds per litre for the joy of it too.

The only fuel that will persist in great quantity or use is diesel and it will only be for HGVs as there is no viable electric vehicle for this in the short (or maybe even middle) term.

It's probably coming sooner than you think. What interests me is how the Government is going to raise all the lost money in fuel duty and how countries which have been oil and gas economies will survive when all of Europe and North America have wholly switched to solar, wind and nuclear for power and electric vehicles for transportation.

OK, the world will still need hydrocarbons for jet fuel, plastics, etc but a significant of world production is solely for vehicle fuel and that demand will be evaporating pretty quick.


Most people wont need a lot of stuff because they will have been cast down into a victorian level of deprivation. The minimum tech level needed to keep them from noticing by plugging them (us) into VR worlds will be maintained though.
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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PostPosted: 20:34 - 11 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mate I would love it if I could just be uploaded into the cloud or something. Would happily spend my time as 1’s and 0’s.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 23:07 - 11 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:
Mate I would love it if I could just be uploaded into the cloud or something. Would happily spend my time as 1’s and 0’s.


This will effectively happen once they have hoovered up enough data (including posts here) to allow an AI to reconstruct you as a virtual being. What part you will play in the metaverse, who can tell.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 00:24 - 12 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can't digitise the soul.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 09:25 - 12 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
You can't digitise the soul.


Lets stop now before this becomes a Star Trek thread. Tut Tut
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 12:07 - 12 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ribenapigeon wrote:
Easy-X wrote:
You can't digitise the soul.


Lets stop now before this becomes a Star Trek thread. Tut Tut


I'm of a mind that - quantifiably - we are not the same ppl from moment to moment. At a minimum you technically "die" every night when you lose consciousness.

But something persists. It may not be real or physical but that doesn't matter. Tell a network engineer his virtual switch isn't real and see how far it gets you Smile
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ThunderGuts
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PostPosted: 12:29 - 12 May 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:
Mate I would love it if I could just be uploaded into the cloud or something. Would happily spend my time as 1’s and 0’s.


Wouldn't that be a virus? Wink
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