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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 15:17 - 07 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
I think the ICBM threat only becomes real if sovereign Russian territory is threatened.


OK, so if the west support Ukraine enough that they push Russia back to pre war lines, does that include retaking Crimea? Russia regard that as Russian territory, Ukraine regard it as Ukranian.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 15:40 - 07 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

After annexation of large portions of Ukraine that aren't Crimea and the Ukranian counter offensive pushing the Russians out of those areas thats a bit of a moot point.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 15:56 - 07 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:
I think the ICBM threat only becomes real if sovereign Russian territory is threatened.


OK, so if the west support Ukraine enough that they push Russia back to pre war lines, does that include retaking Crimea? Russia regard that as Russian territory, Ukraine regard it as Ukranian.


Difficult one, that. The Black Sea ports are very important to both sides, hard to know if there are circumstances that either side will relent on there. I suspect a half-way accommodation will be needed in the long run.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 18:14 - 07 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

The fact that Putin's had to call up reservists (a move that's gone down like a lead balloon back home) just to hang onto what he has doesn't bode well. And full mobilisation would be impossible, they don't have enough officers and NCOs to look after the troops they have now.
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Islander
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PostPosted: 18:17 - 07 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
The fact that Putin's had to call up reservists (a move that's gone down like a lead balloon back home) just to hang onto what he has doesn't bode well. And full mobilisation would be impossible, they don't have enough officers and NCOs to look after the troops they have now.


Apparently approximately 700,000 men of conscription age have chosen to leave Russia rather than get involved. It's all starting to make Putain look rather foolish.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 21:45 - 07 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think "deluded" would be more accurate. AFAIK no one who's met the man or worked for him has ever said he was insane or stupid but the general theme is that Russia is run like a criminal organisation.

Battle of the Vlads: "Pretty Boy" Putin versus "Zippy" Zelensky Laughing If a mob-boss goes to war with a rival to take over their turf how does it end? I guess one man dies or the body count becomes more than the contenders can stomach Shocked
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Islander
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PostPosted: 12:54 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:
I think the ICBM threat only becomes real if sovereign Russian territory is threatened.


OK, so if the west support Ukraine enough that they push Russia back to pre war lines, does that include retaking Crimea? Russia regard that as Russian territory, Ukraine regard it as Ukranian.


I think you have your answer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-63183783

That's a major military supply route destroyed as well as Crimea cut off from Russia.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 13:30 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Islander wrote:
Polarbear wrote:


OK, so if the west support Ukraine enough that they push Russia back to pre war lines, does that include retaking Crimea? Russia regard that as Russian territory, Ukraine regard it as Ukranian.


I think you have your answer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-63183783

That's a major military supply route destroyed as well as Crimea cut off from Russia.


Well no. My question was what will Russia do if Ukraine invade Crimea. They have been attacking it for the whole war. Yes they have destroyed a bridge. No they haven't invaded/retaken Crimea.
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Islander
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PostPosted: 16:11 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
Islander wrote:

I think you have your answer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-63183783

That's a major military supply route destroyed as well as Crimea cut off from Russia.


Well no. My question was what will Russia do if Ukraine invade Crimea. They have been attacking it for the whole war. Yes they have destroyed a bridge. No they haven't invaded/retaken Crimea.


Yes but the statements made make it abundantly clear that they intend to,
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 16:24 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Islander wrote:
Polarbear wrote:


Well no. My question was what will Russia do if Ukraine invade Crimea. They have been attacking it for the whole war. Yes they have destroyed a bridge. No they haven't invaded/retaken Crimea.


Yes but the statements made make it abundantly clear that they intend to,


Ukraines statement, not the west/NATO. Any invasion of Crimea will be dependent on them being supplied with the nessecary weaponry. If they say no then Ukraine won't be able to and personally I can't see them being given it. That's pushing Russia into a hole that Putin won't be able to climb out of without using nukes and America won't risk that. Just my view but we shall see.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 16:25 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
what will Russia do if Ukraine invade Crimea. They have been attacking it for the whole war. Yes they have destroyed a bridge. No they haven't invaded/retaken Crimea.

Firstly they'll deny it happened.

Then they'll send yet more of their citizens to die in Crimea and Ukraine.

A few high ranking military people and or government officials will mysteriously go missing before dying of 'natural causes'.

Basically, they're even further up shit creek without a paddle and now they don't have a bridge. Dance!
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pinkyfloyd
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PostPosted: 16:27 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:


Then they'll send yet more of their citizens to die in Crimea and Ukraine.

A few high ranking military people and or government officials will mysteriously go missing before dying of 'natural causes'.

Basically, they're even further up shit creek without a paddle and now they don't have a bridge. Dance!


Probably nail on the head there,

He's going to run out of troops at some point and then he might start looking at the big red button, wont that be exciting?
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 16:35 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

pinkyfloyd wrote:
Ste wrote:


Then they'll send yet more of their citizens to die in Crimea and Ukraine.

A few high ranking military people and or government officials will mysteriously go missing before dying of 'natural causes'.

Basically, they're even further up shit creek without a paddle and now they don't have a bridge. Dance!


Probably nail on the head there,

He's going to run out of troops at some point and then he might start looking at the big red button, wont that be exciting?


And that's my point. At some time Ukraines and the wests priorities are going to diverge. I can see Ukraine wanting to go and get Crimea back and why who can blame them but I can see that not being on the wests agenda for exactly the big red button reason.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 16:51 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Are there no attempts at mediation going on at all, from any quarter? I find that odd. Nothing from the UN? Or has Putin spurned all requests for such? Nothing in the news on the subject. Given the fears of the nuclear threat, you'd think such avenues would be explored to their utmost. All the press releases from both sides just seem to be inflammatory.
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Islander
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PostPosted: 16:56 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:

And that's my point. At some time Ukraines and the wests priorities are going to diverge. I can see Ukraine wanting to go and get Crimea back and why who can blame them but I can see that not being on the wests agenda for exactly the big red button reason.


The point is that the west can't back down on this. Putain invaded the Ukraine because we did nothing when he invaded Crimea. Back down again and where's next for his attention? Where does it stop?

If he threatens to use nuclear weapons then they can't afford to back down on that either - it'd send a message to every tinpot nuclear state that the west will do nothing if they're used. It sends a message to China as well... It would also send a message to Putain that he can get away with it.

Hopefully Russia's leadership will realise this and Putain will 'die in his sleep' before any escalation takes place. I'm not holding my breath on that though.
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pinkyfloyd
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PostPosted: 18:25 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Islander wrote:

Hopefully Russia's leadership will realise this and Putain will 'die in his sleep' before any escalation takes place. I'm not holding my breath on that though.


Putin has either retired or "retired" everyone close to him who does not agree with him over the last few years. He became seriously paranoid during the covid lockdowns when the world isolated. Dude has lost a screw somewhere in all that alone time. He has brainwashed those close to him and you can see how it has been attempted on the people of russia. It has not worked as well as he expected as the technology age means people can and do find out information for themselves. There is only so much anyone can really control.

Ukraine have made advances and will continue to do so. Maybe they will retake crimea but I cannot see it. They might cut it off completely from Russia tho and really piss Putin off.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 19:04 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not backing down does not mean not calling for an end to the fighting. And all the speculation about Putin's state of mind is just that; speculation. Who has actually interviewed him? There is no dialogue, and so no one knows what is going on in his mind. Of course he pushes propaganda on Russian media - he is at war. But this does not mean a way can't be found to reason with him. Every attempt should continually be made at least.

This does not in any way condone Putin's actions. But it is no good being right if you end up living (or more likely dying) in a nuclear wasteland. Both sides ought to be more conscious of that.

Not one single voice trying with all their might to bring this to a peaceful end? Nowhere in the world? Something is very amiss. It's almost like everyone wants this war. If someone had one of your loved ones hostage at gunpoint and you couldn't physically take them out, would you just hurl insults at them? Or would you not let up on trying to reason with them, knowing full well they were deranged? Just in case there were a chance to persuade them?
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Ste
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PostPosted: 20:07 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
Not one single voice trying with all their might to bring this to a peaceful end?

Not one single voice, apart from those of all the world leaders?

Try as they might by voicing their thoughts and offering to help bring things to a peaceful end, dialogue is somewhat impossible when Putin doesn't want to take part.

There's not much to negotiate anyway as Putin wants Ukraine to be part of Russia and understandably, Zelenskyy doesn't want to give so much as an inch of Ukraine to Russia.

A peaceful end will involve Putin expiring.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 20:16 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:
Not one single voice trying with all their might to bring this to a peaceful end?

Not one single voice, apart from those of all the world leaders?


I must be watching the wrong news, quite possible in this day and age I suppose. Who are the most vocal ones, and are they calling for actual mediation? Seriously calling for it? Or just going through the motions?

But I can't help but think this is made more difficult when everyone seems to have expelled Russian ambassadors from their countries. Another mistake?
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Ste
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PostPosted: 20:33 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

What do you mean by seriously calling for it rather than going through the motions?

Actual mediation is impossible when all Putin wants is for Ukraine to be part of Russia.

Rather than saying which countries are the most vocal, perhaps it would be quicker to list the countries who're not trying? As for the possibility that you're watching the wrong news, it's been all over the news since February last year so maybe you've been watching Russia Today.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 21:20 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Putin is talking to Erdoğan (although I suspect Turkey has only opportunistically placed itself as a neutral party) even there the message is "pull out of Ukraine." Putin might mutter about the big red button but he'll be on his own. No one will have an appetite for it in Russia and certainly not China, his closest "ally" in relative terms. Cuba, Venezuela? Who gives a fuck.

Really though it all comes down to the most closely guarded secret of the last one hundred years: Russia's shit in wars. The Battle of Stalingrad? The Germans lost due to logistics not 'cos of any amazing bravery or tactics of the Soviets. Afghanistan? Nope. Chechnya? Lots of mercenaries.

Could someone cite a war were the Russians have done really well since... I dunno, the revolution? That's over a century, should be easy surely? Smile
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 22:08 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Russia seems to still have the communist mentality: throw manpower at the enemy.
Russia's military also has a culture of hazing and corruption, where new recruits are treated very badly, and officers are out for what they can get materially, so morale has always been poor.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 22:14 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
What do you mean by seriously calling for it rather than going through the motions?

Actual mediation is impossible when all Putin wants is for Ukraine to be part of Russia.


Again, I can't help but think expelling Russian ambassadors may have been a mistake. It was the closing of an avenue of dialogue.

Quote:
Rather than saying which countries are the most vocal, perhaps it would be quicker to list the countries who're not trying? As for the possibility that you're watching the wrong news, it's been all over the news since February last year so maybe you've been watching Russia Today.


Who was the last world leader you heard calling for mediation, and what did they actually say?
Maybe I haven't been watching Russia Today Wink
Although it would be useful perhaps to keep an eye on what Russia/Putin is saying, propaganda or not. Know your enemy.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 23:50 - 08 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ejecting ambassadors is standard diplomatic protocol for "we're very angry with you!" Conversation still continues via other means.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 17:19 - 09 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
That's pushing Russia into a hole that Putin won't be able to climb out of without using nukes and America won't risk that. Just my view but we shall see.


I wouldn't bet on that. 'murica only cares about 'murican lives and even then on in a sentimental way, a short look at the place and you can tell life is pretty cheap stateside but think of the holier than thou points the good ol USA gets if Putin lets off a battlefield nuke. If that happens Biden will do some 'murica saves the world stuff like blow the Russian Black Sea fleet out of the water. Then Ukraine will owe 'murica for the next fifty years. Biden Jr will probably get to become the defacto owner of the place.
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