Ukraine war and when Russia will collaps?

[Val]

[Easy-X]

Yeah, people would be more interested in historic events if "The Butterfly Effect" was renamed to "The Blowjob Effect"
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Husqvarna Vitpilen 401, Yamaha XSR700, Honda Rebel, Yamaha DT175, Suzuki SV650 (loan) Fazer 600, Keeway Superlight 125, 50cc turd scooter

[Val]

Anyhow really nice Ukrainian war song here.

Антитіла - Фортеця Бахмут / Antytila - Bakhmut Fortress Mom I'll come back.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmqLVrUXsTQ
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Adrian Monk: Unless I'm wrong, which, you know, I'm not...
Yamaha Fazer FZS 600, MT09, XSR 900

[Easy-X]

Amusing as the song might be I think most people outside of Ukraine & Russia are only interested in two things: is it over yet? do we need to send more guns?

I've been trying to get a handle on why this war is important so maybe we start with some history, please offer corrections where I'm wrong...

As far as I can tell Ukraine, Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian language is typical of far eastern Europe. Here I'm talking about Lithuania in north, Belarus in the middle and Ukraine in the south. They'd be all a piece if it weren't for (arguably artificial) external political forces. None of them, in terms of national borders, are "real" as far as ancient history is concerned but then very little of Europe is outside of England and Denmark. Probably Lithuania as part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth might be considered the most "solid" in a comparable context to the English/Scottish Union. Anyhoo, all of these places only became real, solid, "thick concepts" if you will after WW2 when so much of the World's map was redrawn. Prior they were playthings of larger powers and it seems they've become playthings again.

During the Eastern Bloc days the Soviets spent their time diluting all their possessions with Russian influence and sent colonists (I think it's fair to call them that) to every place they could stick. You have to start asking the question "what are a people?" and if we place it in a UK context one might look at Ireland and suggest there are two "peoples" there: the original Irish in the south and the colonists in the north. You then have to deal with snapshots in history and consider "well, Henry VIII and William of Orange were both c*nts to Ireland" - not a tricky one to argue - but that was a long time ago, that was then. Maybe, just maybe we should take a snapshot of the now and work with what we have?

And so we have the intractable Ukraine situation. What do we have to work with? Mostly Ukrainian people in the west of the country and somewhat Russian people in the east, that is the current snapshot. We can mutter about how things were but this is the now. Neither presently seems to get along and why? Because neither the Russians nor the Americans want them to as it serves a greater purpose.

IMHO real, tangible peace in Ukraine would be for everyone to lay down their arms and tell the outside influences to get bent.
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[Val]

[M.C]

The historical context is Ukraine generally had a shit time being on the fringes of the Soviet Union (the Holodomor for example), and since independence has moved closer to the West.

Putin wants puppets in neighbouring countries (Alexander Lukashenko for example), and when his puppet Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in 2014 that kicked off the conflict back then.

Problem is these 'revolutions' are rarely organic, and Zelensky's rise from nowhere was insultingly manufactured, which muddies the waters.

So you have a power play between two sides, which is what Putin tried a year ago with his invasion, whilst as usual ordinary people suffer.

tl;dr...

https://www.bikechatforums.com/files/cat_926.png

[Easy-X]

[Ribenapigeon]

Basically we're back to the cold war with plenty of proxy hot wars to keep our generals and arms manufacturers happy.
Ukraine is a distraction now the real action will be in where Russia is focusing its diplomatic efforts. A good question is how low will we be prepared to go in the competition to stack up our proxies? Remember back in the cold war we cultivated some pretty nasty regimes in our effort to defend against Comyinisum.

[Polarbear]

Val laudifying Germany and slagging off the good ole US of A when the only reason Russia hasn't reduced them to component molecules is America the nuclear umbrella.
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Triumph Trophy Launch Edition

[M.C]

I see now why Ukraine are so eager to get their hands on the Leopard 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGzRfvgnS_s

[Ribenapigeon]

[Ribenapigeon]

[stinkwheel]

[Ribenapigeon]

[Easy-X]

[dave001]

[Easy-X]

I'm still confused by this whole affair.

Let's assume Putin is stupid enough to believe all the lies forwarded to him: the Russian army is fighting fit and well armed, Ukrainians will welcome them with open arms as they roll into Kiev and a pro-Russian dictator could be installed. What about the Western reaction?

Putin would have to believe that everyone else at most grumbled, shrugged their shoulders and went "Slavic problems, eh?" And probably more: imagining that the likes of Finland and Poland would go "Russian Empire 2.0? Sign me up!" and Germany reconsidering its NATO membership.

Three days in and everyone including Putin knew Russia had lost. It's utterly mad.
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[M.C]

[bhinso]

[Nobby the Bastard]

It doesn't take into account the cost of the weapons. For example, Leopard 2s are cheaper than Challenger 2s because efficiency of scale. There's a hell of a lot more Leopards than Challengers going.
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trevor saxe-coburg-gotha:"Remember this simple rule - scooters are for men who like to feel the breeze on their huge, flapping cunt lips."
Sprint ST 1050

[Easy-X]

[Ribenapigeon]

Is it too early to ask what Ukraine is offering us in return?

[Nobby the Bastard]

A buffer between Russia and NATO at present and giving Russia a bloody nose thus making Russia think twice to even take on a NATO aligned power and it's superior weapons.

We get to see how our weapons and tactics compare with the Russian bear without actually being a risk ourselves.
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trevor saxe-coburg-gotha:"Remember this simple rule - scooters are for men who like to feel the breeze on their huge, flapping cunt lips."
Sprint ST 1050

[M.C]

[Polarbear]