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stinkwheel
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 Posted: 22:27 - 15 Aug 2022  Post subject: |
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| chickenstrip wrote: | | stinkwheel wrote: | At somepoint Russia will use either tactical nukes or chemical weapons |
I wonder what the fallout/radioactive contamination levels are like from tac. nukes?
I'm also not sure if they'd be logical even for tactical reasons in this war. Are the Ukranians using large concentrations of forces? They can do a lot of damage with smaller teams supplied by the West with modern weapons, and/or they could use concentrate and disperse tactics, leaving no substantial targets for any length of time. And if the fighting is close in, hanging onto each others belts so to speak, that also would rule out the use of tac. nukes.
I think Ukraine has to resign itself to a long drawn out conflict of more or less hit-and-run tactics to win in the end, much like the North Vietnamese employed against the US in that war, or the Afghans against Soviet forces. They too would concentrate for a given attack, but would not aim to hold ground, being more concerned with depleting the enemy forces, a constant strain on resources. Of course in Vietnam the North had the advantage of country in which it was easy to conceal troop concentrations for limited periods. it was common to hear "they have a whole division in those hills somewhere...", without any major concentrations ever being pinned down. |
Thing is, they're imminently going to run out of the chips needed to guide in precision guided weapons. The eastern-blok hardware doesn't cut the mustard in that respect, not even the Chinese stuff, they're all made in the West and they've already fired off a significant proportion of what they have. That leaves them a limited precision strike capability at distant high-value targets like munitions depots, airfields and other military/infrastructure. What they have left is... less precise.
I could also see the situation occurring that a wooded area has multiple infantry units lurking in it, or even a steelworks with dug-in defenders and a Russian field commander deciding it's far easier to just flood the whole area with Novichok and move in a few days later. Even the Yanks did similar in Vietnam, they just called it a defoliant.
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 23:02 - 15 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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| stinkwheel wrote: |
Thing is, they're imminently going to run out of the chips needed to guide in precision guided weapons. The eastern-blok hardware doesn't cut the mustard in that respect, not even the Chinese stuff, they're all made in the West and they've already fired off a significant proportion of what they have. That leaves them a limited precision strike capability at distant high-value targets like munitions depots, airfields and other military/infrastructure. What they have left is... less precise. |
I'm not so sure of all this. For one thing, China has stolen much technology from the West, possibly even aided by us. And then, where do all the raw materials to produce this technology come from? And I haven't seen any credible assessments that say Russia has already shot its bolt. What I see looks more like fingers crossed guesswork to me.
| Quote: | I could also see the situation occurring that a wooded area has multiple infantry units lurking in it, or even a steelworks with dug-in defenders and a Russian field commander deciding it's far easier to just flood the whole area with Novichok and move in a few days later. Even the Yanks did similar in Vietnam, they just called it a defoliant. |
That tactic was available in WW2. Why do you think it wasn't used?
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stinkwheel
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 00:05 - 16 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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Maybe. I still reserve judgement. Does China have the capability of providing his needs? There is an alliance of convenience there.
| Quote: | | Quote: |
That tactic was available in WW2. Why do you think it wasn't used? |
Equally, Russia DID use it in Chechnya and looks like it most probably facilitated it, or at least stood and watched it being used in Syria. |
Still, this is in a country where the ties between Russians and Ukrainians are much closer. I don't think the scenarios are comparable. Maybe Putin would use chemical weapons on a small scale, but I don't think he'd go so far as to think he would gain strategically from them unless the conflict escalated into a wider war with NATO - a war of survival for Russia. And then chemical weapons might be eclipsed by strategic nuclear war.
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Polarbear
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 13:21 - 23 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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Problem is if Russia is successful in Ukraine, it won't stop there. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and others will all be next in Putin's sights. This is almost guaranteed. So we have to consider if we want to allow that, with all the suffering it will cause if done through Russian aggression.
The alternative is to sit down with Putin and negotiate HOW that should happen. This might well be the best option in the end, as we might then be able to get some concessions that allow those states at least some autonomy.
I can tell you I personally am already suffering from the massive inflation we're currently experiencing, and I don't mean having to go without a few luxuries. I gave all that up some time ago. But if the war ends, such problems aren't going to go away, might be eased for a little while. The West's problems aren't caused by the war in Ukraine, only exacerbated by it.
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| Fat Angry Scotsman |
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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Posted: 13:37 - 23 Aug 2022  Post subject: |
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Even now, Putin is driving a wedge between Germany and the rest of NATO. For the Germans, it may be a matter of national survival to side with Russia. Then NATO is finished.
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 11:48 - 24 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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| Fat Angry Scotsman wrote: | | chickenstrip wrote: | Even now, Putin is driving a wedge between Germany and the rest of NATO. For the Germans, it may be a matter of national survival to side with Russia. Then NATO is finished. |
NATO would be finished without Germany? Doubt it. That's as much a non-starter as saying the EU would be finished without the UK  |
If NATO is primarily concerned with stopping Putin's expansionism, it isn't German military power that is the problem, but geographical concerns.
The EU might well be finished without Germany. That throws up a whole raft of questions about European alliances going into the future.
If you don't think that Germany might bow out of NATO or even the EU, consider how much their manufacturing relies on Russian energy supplies. That's Germany's life blood. If they ally with Russia, not only do you lose the essential base for operations against Russian military aggression, but the EU will be torn apart as everyone argues about how Germany can possibly have a foot in both camps.
How much have you heard from the German government decrying Putin's actions? How much military aid have they supplied to Ukraine?
Say all you want about the pros and cons of Brexit, but I don't envy Germany's position currently.
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Easy-X
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Polarbear
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| Posted: 11:51 - 26 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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So not only have western sanctions sent gas prices through the roof, they are contributing to global warming on an unpresidented scale.
Climate change: Russia burns off gas as Europe's energy bills rocket
Flaring off 4.5 billion m3 of gas a day will somewhat nullify the plusses of buying a Tesla or two.
We, as in the west need to do one of two things. Leave Russia to do what it wants and stop the sanctions and military assisstance or go in full pelt with everything and stop Russia in it's tracks.
If we don't this could last for years and be a catastrophy on so many levels.
Personally I don't really care that much about Ukraine. It's been part of the USSR for longer than it's been an independant country in my lifetime and I certainly don't think Russia would dare invade a Nato country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-62652133
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 13:17 - 26 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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| Polarbear wrote: |
Personally I don't really care that much about Ukraine. It's been part of the USSR for longer than it's been an independant country in my lifetime and I certainly don't think Russia would dare invade a Nato country. |
Then what of those smaller states, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia? They're in NATO, but what would you sacrifice for them?
The hope has to be that the West can sort its energy problems, lack of fertilisers etc without having to come to a deal with Putin. Can we? It isn't helped by political upheaval within our own nations, and daft policies like the Dutch government has on farming, net zero and all this other suicidal madness we are committed to. Putin can probably just apply a little pressure here and there, and all western alliances will come crashing down anyway, just a matter of time.
I'd say it's all impossible to predict right now. We could be in for some nasty shocks, or we might sail through it all, although the latter seems unlikely to me. Unprecedented times.
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| Fat Angry Scotsman |
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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| Posted: 14:18 - 26 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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| chickenstrip wrote: | Then what of those smaller states, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia? They're in NATO, but what would you sacrifice for them?
The hope has to be that the West can sort its energy problems, lack of fertilisers etc without having to come to a deal with Putin. Can we? It isn't helped by political upheaval within our own nations, and daft policies like the Dutch government has on farming, net zero and all this other suicidal madness we are committed to. Putin can probably just apply a little pressure here and there, and all western alliances will come crashing down anyway, just a matter of time.
I'd say it's all impossible to predict right now. We could be in for some nasty shocks, or we might sail through it all, although the latter seems unlikely to me. Unprecedented times. |
My friend, dare I say, that you're a little pessimistic?
Personally, I've had enough of this shite. I think the world should just force Zelensky and Putin into a cage match for an old fashioned square go. Do it the old Navy way: first one to die loses.
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 15:09 - 26 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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| Fat Angry Scotsman wrote: |
My friend, dare I say, that you're a little pessimistic? |
Just thinking aloud 
Things may go a lot better than the scenarios I've painted above.
But then, they might not
If you were a general wargaming, you wouldn't just look at the possible positive outcomes, but also the worst case scenarios, by which I mean those ones that could actually happen. Of course you hope you play things better and avoid the worst, but I have to say, I don't have much faith in western leadership right now, not to mention that loose cannon in the Kremlin.
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Easy-X
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| Posted: 19:06 - 26 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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As I've postulated previously the high energy bills are the actual objective, the war in Ukraine is just a convenient whipping boy, almost as if someone put Putin up to it...
https://c.tenor.com/4hgLFtGX1lYAAAAM/explain-plan.gif
Energy costs were climbing even before the war (see the German "Utopia" graph on the other thread, reminder: the war only started in February this year.)
Repeated ad nauseum rich people care for the planet poor people do not cannot. When push comes to shove ppl will be chopping down trees and try burning it in the fireplace that had the chimney capped years ago (the fire brigade might be very busy this winter) and where's your emissions controls then?
| George Orwell, 1984 wrote: | There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always— do not forget this, Winston— always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face— forever. |
And that boot will leave and impression, a carbon footprint if you will.
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Islander
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| Posted: 20:35 - 26 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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| Easy-X wrote: | As I've postulated previously the high energy bills are the actual objective, the war in Ukraine is just a convenient whipping boy, almost as if someone put Putin up to it...
https://c.tenor.com/4hgLFtGX1lYAAAAM/explain-plan.gif
Energy costs were climbing even before the war (see the German "Utopia" graph on the other thread, reminder: the war only started in February this year.)
Repeated ad nauseum rich people care for the planet poor people do not cannot. When push comes to shove ppl will be chopping down trees and try burning it in the fireplace that had the chimney capped years ago (the fire brigade might be very busy this winter) and where's your emissions controls then?
| George Orwell, 1984 wrote: | There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always— do not forget this, Winston— always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face— forever. |
And that boot will leave and impression, a carbon footprint if you will. |
I think you've caught the Rebel. There's no cure unfortunately. |
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 12:54 - 27 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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| Easy-X wrote: | I note that you refute none of my points. The downside of argumentum ad hominem is you tend to reinforce rather than repudiate: "Islander attacked me so I must be on to something."
That's rather depressing. |
Islander is a perfect example of all that is wrong with political 'debate' today. Personal attacks on others whilst espousing no views or opinions of his own on actual points.
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Easy-X
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| Posted: 16:42 - 27 Aug 2022 Post subject: |
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| chickenstrip wrote: | Islander is a perfect example of all that is wrong with political 'debate' today. Personal attacks on others whilst espousing no views or opinions of his own on actual points. |
Plays are not written by critics.
I hate to bring up the term "neurodiversity" but from some studies of hemispherical damage (e.g. stroke) it was found that the left side of the brain focuses on modelling whereas the right focuses on anomaly detection. If you think of something like memory you could call it an efficient compression algorithm: create a simple model and then you only need to remember the anomalies where the model doesn't work.
Anyhoo, if one hemisphere is, how shall I put it, prioritised then the way people literally see the world* goes out of balance. While the left half builds models it cannot grok deviations from the model and the right half can only see problems. (I recall a certain member on here raging on half a dozen topics all in one post with no clear indication of how any of it was related; no model or scaffolding behind it.)
Obviously I'm not a neuropsychologist but this all sounds rather too convenient. It does however explain those leaders with mad utopian views, the details are always somebody else's problem.
*remember, your eyes barely do anything the brain fills in 90% of what you think you see.
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 1 year, 243 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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