Ukraine war and when Russia will collaps?

[Val]

I hope January 2023 will the end of Russia.
EU and US will have the full ban of Russian oil end of 2022.
Which is symbolic because the current sanctions have crippled Russia#s economy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9oi1wgnR8U&t=1271s

Russian have lost until today 939 tanks that is twice more tanks lost then the combined UK and Germany tank forces!

On 5th of Dec 2022 Russia army will lose 50% of all tanks and collaps.
https://i.imgur.com/BWhYVsj.jpg
Data is here:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

https://medium.com/@zs.lazar1/125-days-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-on-ten-charts-5f5f12607730
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[Fat Angry Scotsman]

Why do they magically collapse when they are down to 50% of their tanks?
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[Val]

[Nobby the Bastard]

Tanks are no longer the winning offensive force multiplier they used to be. Air support is far superior these days and tanks are very slow and vulnerable to the right sort of weapons.

Thats why the West hasn't expended vast amounts and doesn't have a vast number of them (excluding the US, but they like pork barrelling.)
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[Fat Angry Scotsman]

[Val]

[chickenstrip]

[Nobby the Bastard]

[Polarbear]

I think that if Russia carry on another year the EU will fold. They are holding energy prices low at the moment but can't carry it on. Russia isn't suffering......

Russian oil and fuel revenue up even as exports fall - IEA

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-fuel-revenue-up-even-exports-fall-iea-2022-06-15/

India and China are quite happily buying their oil. If I was Putin I'd stop the gas to the EU instantly and tell China he'd support them if they retake Taiwan. That would be America off his back instantly.
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[Ste]

Come back to the UK please.

[Kawasaki Jimbo]

Just need to bear in mind that those are very specific numbers being reported from a war zone and they’re telling us what we’d like to hear.

The likelihood that the EU will wean itself off Russian gas and oil soon and go on to sanction anyone else who buys it seems far-fetched when you consider the self-harm it will do.

Half of France’s nuclear reactors are down due to maintenance issues apparently. Not helpful.

I thought Putin might have been ousted due to this unwise and costly war but he seems surprisingly secure in place.

[KiwiBob]

[Nobby the Bastard]

Most of them aren't current gen and the few current gen ones deployed in theater didn't last long.
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[Easy-X]

In answer to the original question: with Chinese backing - never, without Chinese backing, within the next 20 years.

As to the Ukrainian sideshow the tank loses are as much about lack of maintenance and endemic corruption within Russia as they are indicative of Ukrainian military success. Anyway, artillery is where it's at in this conflict.

Will Putin manage to get anyone to leave NATO is the real question and that won't be answered till the winter.
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[chickenstrip]

[Polarbear]

[chickenstrip]

The EU is not the same thing as NATO. But I suppose he could put pressure on countries to leave that too. Basically, our continental friends have right fucked themselves over
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[chickenstrip]

Putin has relied heavily on armoured forces in his invasion.
I've been wondering though, how that pans out in the context of history in that region. Come autumn, those forces could find themselves in a bit of trouble as the ground becomes waterlogged and turns into a quagmire wherever armour operates off road. I daresay modern armour is better equipped to deal with this than in WW2, but I wonder if there still might be problems. The Ukranian forces otoh don't rely on armour, but more on foot soldiers equipped with anti-armour weapons, who will find it easier to stalk those tanks etc when they're more confined by soft ground?

This makes me also wonder if Putin will make a major push before that wetter weather sets in.
Or maybe his armoured forces are already so depleted that he won't be able to...but I'm not sure I believe that is the case.
Or he might ease things off until winter sets in and the ground hardens, becoming more suitable for armour again.
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[Fat Angry Scotsman]

[Easy-X]

AFAIK the problem with Taiwan is to be of any value it needs to be taken intact. Carpet bombing, nuking, artillery barrage, destroyer salvos etc. would destroy too much infrastructure. China would end up with a very expensive rock.

Taiwan couldn't hope to win against their big brother but they'd at least hold out long enough for the US to park a carrier in the Malacca Strait and fuck China up without firing a shot.
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[stinkwheel]

At somepoint Russia will use either tactical nukes or chemical weapons to stop an attempt at re-taking contested territory. At which point NATO will have to get involved.

I'd suspect it would be by means of projected air power because there's unlikely to be any appetite for feet on the ground. So most likely creating and enforcing a no-fly zone and with backup air support to Ukranian ground troops.

At that point, armour is totally out of the picture. There are NATO bases close enough to send in A10s and attack helicopters driectly which would take out every bit of standing armour in the country within the first 48h. It would be like when the cloud lifted at the battle fo the Bulge.
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[Fat Angry Scotsman]

[Easy-X]

[chickenstrip]

[Fat Angry Scotsman]