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Ukraine war and when Russia will collaps?

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M.C
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PostPosted: 02:16 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

One potential benefit, with Western nations especially the US depleting their stockpiles, we'll probably be safe from other stupid wars and 'regime changes' for a while.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 08:49 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
One potential benefit, with Western nations especially the US depleting their stockpiles, we'll probably be safe from other stupid wars and 'regime changes' for a while.


On the other hand, a lot of high-tech hardware is going to land up out in the wild and will inevitably fall into the wrong hands.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 09:24 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
One potential benefit, with Western nations especially the US depleting their stockpiles, we'll probably be safe from other stupid wars and 'regime changes' for a while.


I think the point is to send "end of life" materiel but there's a world of difference between how Western and Russian stockpiles have been maintained.

For example, before the war (on paper) Russia had 10,000 BMP-1 IFVs but there's probably only a few dozen operational in Ukraine right now.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 11:38 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
M.C wrote:
One potential benefit, with Western nations especially the US depleting their stockpiles, we'll probably be safe from other stupid wars and 'regime changes' for a while.


On the other hand, a lot of high-tech hardware is going to land up out in the wild and will inevitably fall into the wrong hands.

They didn't seem to care about that with Afganistan.

Easy-X wrote:
I think the point is to send "end of life" materiel but there's a world of difference between how Western and Russian stockpiles have been maintained.

For example, before the war (on paper) Russia had 10,000 BMP-1 IFVs but there's probably only a few dozen operational in Ukraine right now.

I've heard reports that the US and other allies are pretty screwed. My point was we probably won't be getting an Iraq or Syria (you're safe for now Iran Smile) with this going on.

I guess the flip side could be with production being ramped up, if the conflict does come to a truce they'll have even more weapons than normal.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 12:36 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
M.C wrote:
One potential benefit, with Western nations especially the US depleting their stockpiles, we'll probably be safe from other stupid wars and 'regime changes' for a while.


I think the point is to send "end of life" materiel but there's a world of difference between how Western and Russian stockpiles have been maintained.

For example, before the war (on paper) Russia had 10,000 BMP-1 IFVs but there's probably only a few dozen operational in Ukraine right now.


End of life doesn't mean end of service. I knew someone whos son was killed Afghanistan by a British rocket propelled granade that had been supplied to the afghans in the eighties. The grenade actually missfired exploding in the air before hitting it's intended target.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 12:44 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Generally tanks aren't used for regime change, typically they are bombed back to the stone age before boots are on the ground. In addition most places where the Yanks/Brits have gone in didn't have the equivelent tech stuff we did so tanks, tank killers, long range missiles and air defence systems aren't really needed.

Conversely the stuff going to Ukraine is to go up against more equivelent tech (though it appears to be still be superior in most cases) So they want tanks, tank killers, long range missiles and air defence systems.

So in summary, the stuff being depleted wouldn't stop the Yanks/us from going into some sandy hell hole.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 13:41 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Generally tanks aren't used for regime change

Eh? The Battle for Iraq: US tanks strike into Baghdad

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
So in summary, the stuff being depleted wouldn't stop the Yanks/us from going into some sandy hell hole.

We'll see. They seem to like conflict every decade or so. I don't see them getting involved in or instigating another whilst they're focused on Ukraine.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 13:51 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not many tank battles in Afganistan, Libya or Syria involving the yanks though.

Iraq had T72s, the same as Russia are using for the most part so close to equivelent tech.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 14:04 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

So we wouldn't need what we're giving the Ukrainians, even though Ukraine is facing similar equipment? Got it.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 14:10 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
So we wouldn't need what we're giving the Ukrainians, even though Ukraine is facing similar equipment? Got it.


Are you deliberately obtuse?

The places we typically go into as a coalition don't generally have tanks. Most of our warfighting these days are against muslim insurgents who aren't really known for theirfleets of tanks.

Iraq had quite a modern army back in those days and were a wholly different beast to most of our threats these days.

We've got fuck all tanks anyway.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 14:25 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

No just pointing out you contradicted yourself Laughing

You'll note I said Iran because that appears to be what they've been building up to Wink
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 14:36 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
No just pointing out you contradicted yourself Laughing

You'll note I said Iran because that appears to be what they've been building up to Wink


How did I contradict myself?

I said that we don't face the same sort of enemy as Iraq.

Our preferred approach is to gain air superiority and then take out armour from the air. we only have about 100 tanks as a result. Our current military doctrine is that we wouldn't be having massed tank battles any more.

Ukraine, however, can't take out tanks from the air so wants tanks to attack on the ground.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 15:43 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
How did I contradict myself?

I said that we don't face the same sort of enemy as Iraq.

Again note I cited Iran. Who would they be most comparable to?

I also cited Syria where they armed rebel factions, don't you think the Ukraine conflict would impact that?

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Our preferred approach is to gain air superiority and then take out armour from the air. we only have about 100 tanks as a result. Our current military doctrine is that we wouldn't be having massed tank battles any more.

Ukraine, however, can't take out tanks from the air so wants tanks to attack on the ground.

Even though you're fixated on tanks, they also want jets, which Britain wants to give them, along with all the other equipment.

If you genuinely believe that would have no impact on 'our' appetite and capability to engage in other conflicts, then there's no point carry on this discussion.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 16:00 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Israelis seem to do air strikes with impunity over Iran, no reason why we can't do the same and as already stated we prefer to attack armour from the air and not the ground.

Typhoons rely on lots of static infrastructure which would be easily targetted with Russian missles and drones so aren't a particularly good fit.

The Gripen, which is designed to be serviced by a highly mobile infrastructure and basically uses any suitable road rather than air fields would be the airframe of choice for Ukraine.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 16:13 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:

Our preferred approach is to gain air superiority and then take out armour from the air. we only have about 100 tanks as a result. Our current military doctrine is that we wouldn't be having massed tank battles any more.


In fairness, that was pretty much put to bed at the Battle of the Bulge when allied typhoons and mustangs with unguided rockets wiped out almost every bit of axis armour on the battlefield in a single morning as soon as they had visability. But the cavalry are, as ever, slow to react. Horses in WW1, tanks in 2023.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 16:22 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:

The Gripen, which is designed to be serviced by a highly mobile infrastructure and basically uses any suitable road rather than air fields would be the airframe of choice for Ukraine.


Imagine if we had a load of fast jets that could be serviced and launched from a mobile 20x20m pad errected by engineers in a couple of hours and effectively concealed under cam netting in wooded areas. With a highly flexible high and fast/low and slow attack profile, over the horizon engagement capability and thrust vectored dogfighting...

Harrier aside, I'd go with relatively basic vietnam-era ground attack aircraft. Nothing about this requires multirole. If the Russians had fighter aircraft to spare, I'd imagine we'd have seen more of them by now.

In fact, I'd go with A10s for preference, soak up a hell of a lot of enemy fire and carry on home. Single role close infantry support aircraft. Does not require high-tech armament resupply to operate but can carry it if it's available. Easy to use, easy to clean.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 16:25 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

To be honest if we had the appetite to invade Iran the odds are that we would just sling a load of Tomahawks at air defence systems and Revolutionary Guard bases, followed up by surgical air strikes on the leadership.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 16:31 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:


In fact, I'd go with A10s for preference, soak up a hell of a lot of enemy fire and carry on home. Single role close infantry support aircraft. Does not require high-tech armament resupply to operate but can carry it if it's available. Easy to use, easy to clean.


The Yanks have been trying to retire them for years but they're just too useful. They keep on inventing new applications as warfare changes.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 19:11 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
So we wouldn't need what we're giving the Ukrainians, even though Ukraine is facing similar equipment? Got it.


We have A-bombs so its the countries which fight our proxy wars are the ones that need the kit. I suspect we only have any armed forces as a sort of armament fashion show.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 19:15 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ribenapigeon wrote:

We have A-bombs so its the countries which fight our proxy wars are the ones that need the kit. I suspect we only have any armed forces as a sort of armament fashion show.


Think rapid reaction, being part of a coalition, force. More than half of our fighting force are reserves these days.
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Last edited by Nobby the Bastard on 19:16 - 23 Feb 2023; edited 1 time in total
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 19:15 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:


The Yanks have been trying to retire them for years but they're just too useful. They keep on inventing new applications as warfare changes.


A10 critique

https://youtu.be/WWfsz5R6irs

Personally theyre near the top of my "if i won the euro lottery i would get a pilot license and buy...." List, somewhere behind a Mig-21 and a Kamov KA-50 and ahead of an Me 262.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 19:24 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ribenapigeon wrote:
M.C wrote:
So we wouldn't need what we're giving the Ukrainians, even though Ukraine is facing similar equipment? Got it.


We have A-bombs so its the countries which fight our proxy wars are the ones that need the kit. I suspect we only have any armed forces as a sort of armament fashion show.

Hence why I said:
M.C wrote:
I also cited Syria where they armed rebel factions, don't you think the Ukraine conflict would impact that?
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 19:37 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

ISIL/ISIS basically only really had kalashnikovs and the occasional heavy machinegun. UK didn't donate any weapons apart from the bombs 'donated' by our tornados.

Thats why they were beaten so quickly and so soundly.

Syria didn't really deplete any of our allies stores of weapons and the sort of weapon that would have been useful to them are different to the sort that is useful in Ukraine as the enemy has different weapons and tactics.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 19:46 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

The rebels in Syria were (originally) fighting Assad.

Sophisticated weapons the U.S. military secretly provided to Syrian rebels quickly fell into the hands of the Islamic State

'The arms included anti-tank weapons purchased by the United States that ended up in possession of the Islamic State'
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 19:50 - 23 Feb 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

There were 3 factions in Syria, rebels, ISIL and Assads forces.

Both the rebels and Assads forces (who were supported by the russians) went after ISIS.

The US have weapons to spare. The odds that they will run out due to donations to ukraine are minimal. Also, these things have a shelf life. After that the US would replace them anyway, although a lesser power that had been donated them would probably still use them.

Anti tank weapons in ISIS hands were only really a threat to Assads tanks. I know that we were using Javalins in Afganhistan but that was probably just for shits and giggles and to scare the shit out of the Taliban. 'You've got IEDs? I've got fucking anti-tank weapons, look at what it's done to your walled compound.'
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