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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 02:04 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Polarbear wrote:


There is and it works OK from what I have read. The thing that sticks in my craw a bit though is that it uses more energy to pump the water back up than it creates so is only viable as a pretty instant power provider and can run for only 6 hours max. Hardly a viable economic energy producer is it.

Water is pumped back from Llyn Peris to Marchlyn Mawr during off-peak times. Although it uses more energy to pump the water up than is generated on the way down, pumping is generally done when electricity is cheaper and generation when it is more expensive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station


Dinorwic gets my vote for the best manmade tourist attraction in the UK, anyone finding themselves in Llanberis on a rainy day (are there any other type up there? Laughing ) really should make an effort to visit.


Speaking of green, has anyone else noticed green shit if they stop eating meat for a day? Laughing
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Islander
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PostPosted: 09:43 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:


The problem is, everyone talks all the time about worst case scenarios as if there are no other degrees, and using words like "collapse" as if these are things that will happen overnight. Why would the northern permafrost suddenly thaw?
I contend that no one knows what would actually happen if we just carried on as we are now, just as nobody knows how much effect we'll have if we try to alter things deliberately.

It's like the Covid modelling - all these catastrophic predictions that never came to pass, and we'd have had little chance of doing anything about it if they had without causing fairly catastrophic problems ourselves (as some would say we did).
Alarmism - I can't get on board with it, especially when I see such hypocrisy from some of the loudest voices, and when it crops up with everything from racism to the price of eggs, literally!

And what are we prepared to sacrifice if we believe how bad things "will" be? What are you sacrificing now? What's the point of saving a life if we destroy another? The planet isn't in any danger. We're not about to spark off a Venus-style runaway greenhouse effect (assuming that's what actually happened on Venus).

Oh, and I read recently about some promising coral reef recovery signs - think it might even have been the Great Barrier Reef.


Once a tipping point is reached, and the clue is in the name, you move from an overall negative feedback cycle to a positive one. Once that happens things start to move a lot more quickly. There are already signs of the northern permafrost melting - blowouts if you will. There are already signs of the collapse of both ice sheets including significant erosion beneath the sheets. That means liquid water beneath them and that's a fine lubricant for ice movement.

The modelling we have is based on the proxy data we have over vast history. There have been cycles of heating and cooling before and we know what happened and roughly how long it took. Including catastrophic events caused by melting. The planet's heating and cooling events are governed by three cycles called Milankovitch cycles. One is caused by the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit and has a periodicity of around 100,000 years, another is caused by the obliquity of the Earth's poles with respect to it's orbital plane and has a periodicity of around 41,000 years. The last is caused by the precession of the polar obliquity (think of a spinning top that's at an angle and the way the whole structure rotates around a vertical line) and that one has a periodicity of around 26,000 years. These are predictable events controlled by orbital mechanics and the changes they induce can be measure and predicted with a high degree of certainty. With climate change what we have is a very significant change in the overall rate of change of this to the point where the change itself causes acceleration of the rate of change. It's stepped well outside of normal parameters into dangerous ones.

This has been caused by human interference with the natural carbon cycle taking deep deposits of organic materials that have been buried in the rocks themselves and dumping them rapidly into the atmosphere. A lot of the deposits come from a time when the planet was significantly warmer and had a much higher atmospheric partial pressure of oxygen (35% rather than the 21% today). Releasing CO2 from those times into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels seemed like a good idea and certainly drove significant societal change but we understand the science a lot better these days - it turns out to have been a bad thing to do. But hey, the stockholders are making piles of money so who cares?

Bad for the planet, well yes it is. It's very bad. However, if things go disastrously wrong the planet will recover over millions of years. Lots of life will become extinct and new life will no doubt arise. That's part of the planet's natural cycle of existence. The thing you have to ask yourself is what gives a particularly antisocial, selfish and arrogant branch of the great apes the right to decide that on behalf of the species of the world?

As for carrying on because we don't know what will happen, I don't know what would happen if you tried to reach an overhead power line with a metal pole and you were wearing thick rubber soled boots - care to just carry on and see? Laughing
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Islander
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PostPosted: 09:50 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
mentalboy wrote:
Polarbear wrote:


There is and it works OK from what I have read. The thing that sticks in my craw a bit though is that it uses more energy to pump the water back up than it creates so is only viable as a pretty instant power provider and can run for only 6 hours max. Hardly a viable economic energy producer is it.

Water is pumped back from Llyn Peris to Marchlyn Mawr during off-peak times. Although it uses more energy to pump the water up than is generated on the way down, pumping is generally done when electricity is cheaper and generation when it is more expensive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station


Dinorwic gets my vote for the best manmade tourist attraction in the UK, anyone finding themselves in Llanberis on a rainy day (are there any other type up there? Laughing ) really should make an effort to visit.


Speaking of green, has anyone else noticed green shit if they stop eating meat for a day? Laughing


I visited a pumped storage power station in Norway - it's fascinating and somewhat mindboggling when you take in the sheer scale of excavation work and engineering involved. Thumbs Up
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:49 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Islander wrote:


Once a tipping point is reached, etc...


I am aware of the theory. Well, you better have a better understanding of people and their motivations if you want to carry them with you. All you will do is create violent uprisings, because if things are as bad as you say, you will have to have such drastic policies to reverse it that you will kill millions along the way anyway. Good luck.
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Islander
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PostPosted: 13:23 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:
Islander wrote:


Once a tipping point is reached, etc...


I am aware of the theory. Well, you better have a better understanding of people and their motivations if you want to carry them with you. All you will do is create violent uprisings, because if things are as bad as you say, you will have to have such drastic policies to reverse it that you will kill millions along the way anyway. Good luck.


You do understand that it's a scientific theory which is not the same thing at all as a plain theory don't you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 14:55 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Islander wrote:


You do understand that it's a scientific theory which is not the same thing at all as a plain theory don't you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory


When has climate change theory been repeatedly tested?


chickenstrip wrote:


you better have a better understanding of people and their motivations if you want to carry them with you. All you will do is create violent uprisings, because if things are as bad as you say, you will have to have such drastic policies to reverse it that you will kill millions along the way anyway. Good luck.

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Freddyfruitba...
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PostPosted: 15:51 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Polarbear wrote:
The thing that sticks in my craw a bit though is that it uses more energy to pump the water back up than it creates so is only viable as a pretty instant power provider and can run for only 6 hours max. Hardly a viable economic energy producer is it.
Water is pumped back from Llyn Peris to Marchlyn Mawr during off-peak times. Although it uses more energy to pump the water up than is generated on the way down, pumping is generally done when electricity is cheaper and generation when it is more expensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

Missing the point here somewhat I feel, because if it generated more energy on the way down that it consumed pumping the water up then it would be breaking all the laws of physics and creating energy, wouldn't it? TBF the main function of a system like this is to act as a more-or-less instant method of damping down sudden peaks in supply and demand.
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Last edited by Freddyfruitbat on 16:34 - 04 Oct 2022; edited 1 time in total
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Islander
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PostPosted: 15:53 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:
Islander wrote:


You do understand that it's a scientific theory which is not the same thing at all as a plain theory don't you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory


When has climate change theory been repeatedly tested?


Well atmospheric content goes back 800,000 years by ice core analysis. Not only can atmospheric CO2 be ascertained but there's even a temperature proxy in oxygen isotopes. Then of course there's the use of rock strata as a climate proxy - that record goes back a lot further yet.

Of course it's been tested repeatedly against available data.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 16:56 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Freddyfruitbat wrote:
Polarbear wrote:
The thing that sticks in my craw a bit though is that it uses more energy to pump the water back up than it creates so is only viable as a pretty instant power provider and can run for only 6 hours max. Hardly a viable economic energy producer is it.
Water is pumped back from Llyn Peris to Marchlyn Mawr during off-peak times. Although it uses more energy to pump the water up than is generated on the way down, pumping is generally done when electricity is cheaper and generation when it is more expensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

Missing the point here somewhat I feel, because if it generated more energy on the way down that it consumed pumping the water up then it would be breaking all the laws of physics and creating energy, wouldn't it? TBF the main function of a system like this is to act as a more-or-less instant method of damping down sudden peaks in supply and demand.


No, not missing the point. I understand it's use but in todays day and age there shouldn't be so much wasted electricity. Divert a river to make a small spur lake with hydro plant and only use it in high demand times. Then it will fill itself. No huge power use to pump it back up needed. There are plenty of ways of doing it differently and more efficiently. I understand when these power sources were envisioned electricity was cheap and plentiful and the stable supply was more important. That isn't the case nowadays.
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Islander
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PostPosted: 17:09 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Polarbear wrote:
No, not missing the point. I understand it's use but in todays day and age there shouldn't be so much wasted electricity. Divert a river to make a small spur lake with hydro plant and only use it in high demand times. Then it will fill itself. No huge power use to pump it back up needed. There are plenty of ways of doing it differently and more efficiently. I understand when these power sources were envisioned electricity was cheap and plentiful and the stable supply was more important. That isn't the case nowadays.


Fast hydroelectric power stations still take about 10 minutes to come online. The Cruachan (and other pumped storage power stations) can be fully online in 30 seconds if they use a compressed air startup for the generators or 2 minutes from absolute cold. There's really no comparison between them and as stated before, they play a very important role in black start scenarios.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:10 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Islander wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:


When has climate change theory been repeatedly tested?


Well atmospheric content goes back 800,000 years by ice core analysis. Not only can atmospheric CO2 be ascertained but there's even a temperature proxy in oxygen isotopes. Then of course there's the use of rock strata as a climate proxy - that record goes back a lot further yet.


That's not testing. Your quote said scientific theory is something repeatedly tested. Looking at events and the geological record is not testing.
I propose that climate change "theory" is no such thing. It is a hypothesis.

Quote:
Of course it's been tested repeatedly against available data.


How and when?

Do you agree that if we were to seriously tackle the "problem", policies would have to be pretty drastic, or are things really not as bad as you claim?
What do you propose for the nations that are really polluting, even ramping it up; China, India etc, how will you convince them to change, bearing in mind their people too will suffer severely if the policies are to be effective?
If you really believe things are as bad as you claim, why don't you give up your cyber security job and commit yourself to the problem? Isn't it far more important, indeed the most important thing possible? Show me how serious you think it is, by your actions. Some of these climate change activists may be nuts, but at least they act on what they believe.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 17:23 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
It's well known that temperature alters mean sea level level over time.

It's also known that the mean tempreture of the water and air on this planet has risen higher and higher since the start of the industrial revolution.

How is any of this a hypothesis rather than theory?
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Freddyfruitba...
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PostPosted: 17:50 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Polarbear wrote:
I understand it's use but in todays day and age there shouldn't be so much wasted electricity. Divert a river to make a small spur lake with hydro plant and only use it in high demand times. Then it will fill itself. No huge power use to pump it back up needed.

Yebbut as I understand it, the point of Llyn Peris is that it can be used to rapidly 'absorb' surplus generating capacity; ie, if national demand suddenly unexpectedly falls off a cliff, before there's time for time generators to be wound down, spare power can be mopped up by Llyn Peris to prevent the National Grid blowing a fuse; ie it can act as a buffer in both directions.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 17:54 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Looking at the energy consumption in most Western countries - i.e. not the Americas - I think we're going in the right direction. People just get pissed off with constantly being berated by the eco-twats for not doing enough. Breaking news: it'll never be enough until we're all dead Sad

China and America on the other hand: nuke these two countries off the map and a) the world pollution emissions would fall dramatically and b) the nuclear winter would probably balance global warming Laughing Seriously though, the coal consumption of China is staggering and no one sees it dropping any time soon.

Why should we all live like paupers when it'll have almost no impact?
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Islander
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PostPosted: 19:24 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:


That's not testing. Your quote said scientific theory is something repeatedly tested. Looking at events and the geological record is not testing.
I propose that climate change "theory" is no such thing. It is a hypothesis.

Quote:
Of course it's been tested repeatedly against available data.


How and when?

Do you agree that if we were to seriously tackle the "problem", policies would have to be pretty drastic, or are things really not as bad as you claim?
What do you propose for the nations that are really polluting, even ramping it up; China, India etc, how will you convince them to change, bearing in mind their people too will suffer severely if the policies are to be effective?
If you really believe things are as bad as you claim, why don't you give up your cyber security job and commit yourself to the problem? Isn't it far more important, indeed the most important thing possible? Show me how serious you think it is, by your actions. Some of these climate change activists may be nuts, but at least they act on what they believe.


Erm that IS testing. Science is continually striving for more and more data to improve the accuracy of historic climate conditions (it's already very accurate by the way) in order to improve the reference baseline.

If you mean current climate conditions, well that's happening all the time with atmospheric CO2 monitored at points all over the planet.

Three of these run by NOAA are at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, Barrow in Alaska and Cape Grim in Tasmania. There are lots of others providing continuous data on atmospheric CO2.

Yes we have to make drastic changes and that's what the majority of the world signed up for. Suffering is relative - it'll be a first world problem mostly.

My job isn't cyber security by the way. It's Information Security - it's a much broader discipline. Laughing
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Islander
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PostPosted: 19:27 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Nobby the Bastard wrote:
It's well known that temperature alters mean sea level level over time.

It's also known that the mean tempreture of the water and air on this planet has risen higher and higher since the start of the industrial revolution.

How is any of this a hypothesis rather than theory?


Yep, it's the increase in the rate of change that's the issue and that's CO2 driven.
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Islander
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PostPosted: 19:29 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Easy-X wrote:
Looking at the energy consumption in most Western countries - i.e. not the Americas - I think we're going in the right direction. People just get pissed off with constantly being berated by the eco-twats for not doing enough. Breaking news: it'll never be enough until we're all dead Sad

China and America on the other hand: nuke these two countries off the map and a) the world pollution emissions would fall dramatically and b) the nuclear winter would probably balance global warming Laughing Seriously though, the coal consumption of China is staggering and no one sees it dropping any time soon.

Why should we all live like paupers when it'll have almost no impact?


Oddly enough, China is actively reducing its dependence on coal. It's not a fast process but they recognise the need and are acting.
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Islander
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PostPosted: 19:31 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Freddyfruitbat wrote:
Polarbear wrote:
I understand it's use but in todays day and age there shouldn't be so much wasted electricity. Divert a river to make a small spur lake with hydro plant and only use it in high demand times. Then it will fill itself. No huge power use to pump it back up needed.

Yebbut as I understand it, the point of Llyn Peris is that it can be used to rapidly 'absorb' surplus generating capacity; ie, if national demand suddenly unexpectedly falls off a cliff, before there's time for time generators to be wound down, spare power can be mopped up by Llyn Peris to prevent the National Grid blowing a fuse; ie it can act as a buffer in both directions.


That's true of all the pumped storage systems - they use the excess power to move water uphill Smile

They're a lot more necessary than you'd think. Thumbs Up
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 19:45 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Using kenetic batteries balances the load. Yes it does cost more to fill it than what you get back out of it but thats the same with any energy storage.

The idea is that you fill it using base load (which can't easily be turned off like nuclear) or renewables (which would otherwise would be turned off) at times of low demand.

Thus power not needed at times of low demand is moved to periods of high demand. if yoiu have enough of it you can do away with a lot of the high cost fossil fueled stuff.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 20:01 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
No. ( I don't actually know but im guessing that's the answer OP wants to hear and im feeling generous)
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 20:31 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Ribenapigeon wrote:
No. ( I don't actually know but im guessing that's the answer OP wants to hear and im feeling generous)


Why do you think that? I have kids and grand kids. I want to see the world survive but I don't see it happening with the decisions being made at the moment.

I regard nuclear as green and would be quite happy with a big building programme of nuclear power stations but others catagorecally condemn nuclear as too dangerous. I've said in some other thread that I would be all for building the Severn Barage but the ECO mob would go wild about habitat loss etc. Yes, there would be some downsides but the plusses would well out weigh them in MY view.

My point in the opening post was I feel that what we are doing now is a sticking plastering or tick box green agenda rather than having some actual proper green power production. Making people feel good but not actually doing a lot. To me that sums up the electric car completely but I except others have different thoughts about it.

I also do not believe there is any way the present politicians can swing the electorate to putting up with the green revolution and it's huge costs. It will have to be compulsory to get anything major done. Something like compulsory solar panels on roofs as someone suggested. Building nuclear where it's best to build it and no nimbyism allowed. Tough shit, Nuclear plant C is going to be next to you and you can wave your plackards all day long. Rolling Eyes Try doing that sort of thing when you have an election in a few years.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 20:47 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Polarbear wrote:
Try doing that sort of thing when you have an election in a few years.


Don't worry, democracy is on the way out, to be replaced by the new ideologies.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:11 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
chickenstrip wrote:
Polarbear wrote:
Try doing that sort of thing when you have an election in a few years.


Don't worry, democracy is on the way out, to be replaced by the new ideologies.

True. It no longer matters who wins a democratic election, they’ll still be too afraid of offending a minority to actually enact any policies. Stalemate. Shambles.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 21:33 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Islander wrote:

Oddly enough, China is actively reducing its dependence on coal. It's not a fast process but they recognise the need and are acting.


You're rather fond of the CCP aren't you? Laughing
How is building over 100 coal-fired power stations in the last 2 years helping, do tell?
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 21:36 - 04 Oct 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:


Don't worry, democracy is on the way out, to be replaced by the new ideologies.

True. It no longer matters who wins a democratic election, they’ll still be too afraid of offending a minority to actually enact any policies. Stalemate. Shambles.


The minority ideologies won't be the leading ones. This is where the useful idiots will largely be found. The subject of this thread, climate change - that's going to be the one.
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