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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 16:48 - 20 Sep 2023    Post subject: ICE phase-out delay Reply with quote

It's official: ICE cars, vans will still be sold up till 2035. I did say this would happen /smug_mode:on Laughing

No mention of motorcycles. Previously 2035, talk of 2030, now maybe 2040?
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 17:14 - 20 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

2035 is the EU date so make sense. No point making it later in the UK when manufacturers will have abandoned ICE in 2035.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 17:22 - 20 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

2030 was the Boris target and that guy had no grasp of anything but the next book deal

Give it ten years and there will be plenty of very cheap EV's from China and then some very expensive ones made in Europe, luckily the pollution will be reduced because alot of people won't have a job to go to anymore
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 18:06 - 20 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Absolutely the right thing to do. My Shell shares thank Mr. Sunak. Thumbs Up

In seriousness, as Nobby says, makes total sense to align with the EU.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 18:14 - 20 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
In seriousness, as Nobby says, makes total sense to align with the EU.


Polarbear displaying Remainer sympathies?

Shocked

Very Happy
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 18:24 - 20 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
2035 is the EU date so make sense. No point making it later in the UK when manufacturers will have abandoned ICE in 2035.


Correction: manufacturers might be forced to stop selling new petrol ICE cars in the EU but there is the Rest of the World Rolling Eyes There's also the Germanic rebellion with proposals for some ICE vehicles to continue to exist running on "e-fuels" e.g. crop-grown Ethanol.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 18:39 - 20 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't see many people rushing to create bio-fuels without losing money or throwing in energy in the process so the point is largely moot. Increasing the percentage of ethanol in fuel by 5% caused such a gnashing of teeth in this forum alone, imagine just how many fuel pipes and seal will be destroyed by 100%.
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Robby
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PostPosted: 22:04 - 20 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

I keep seeing people like Easy-X banging on about alternative fuels and hydrogen. I assume it gets mentioned on Gbeebies.

Alternative fuels and hydrogen both could have uses, but will be horribly expensive. If they were vaguely competitive on price, we would already have them.

Ethanol requires a lot of land and a lot of energy putting into processing (you can't distil alcohol without heat).

Hydrogen requires a lot of electricity to make it, then a load more to compress and transport, then leaks out of your tank and finally loses a bit more in making electricity in the fuel cell.

Battery electric works, and gets better each year.

I'm looking forward to the entire parliamentary conservative party fitting in a minibus in 2025.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 22:33 - 20 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

The thing with Ethanol and Hydrogen is they have, like petrol, high energy density which current battery technology does not. "Ye cannae change the laws of physics, captain!" Solid-state batteries are being talked up a lot at the moment but then "New battery technology set to double range!" is a perennial clickbait headline Sad

Don't worry about the e-fuels thing - for cars anyway - it's not for the likes of you! Think billionaires in e-fuel Ferraris hurtling down the autobahns on the way to another Climate Conference Rolling Eyes

It might however turn into an overlooked escape hatch for the continued existence of ICE motorcycles. Buy e-fuel bike, remap to petrol, ride off into the sunset leaving only asthmatic kittens in your wake Wink
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 23:12 - 20 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bio fuels may be useful for existing ICE vehicles but I can't see manufacturers rushing to build them past 2035 simply because the market in bio fuel can't sustain them.

There will be no money in it. The Germans may have ensured that they can be created but when the market has gone all electric...

Fuel cells and ICE using non-fossile fuel is a non-stater until fusion powered generation works.
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Robby
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PostPosted: 00:07 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:

It might however turn into an overlooked escape hatch for the continued existence of ICE motorcycles. Buy e-fuel bike, remap to petrol, ride off into the sunset leaving only asthmatic kittens in your wake Wink


I'm trying to work my way through your mental gymnastics here.

As far as I can tell, you're thinking of some future date where:
1. An electric bike is not feasible for you.
2. It is possible to buy, brand new, in the UK, an internal combustion bike set up for biofuel.
3. It is feasible for you to buy such a bike, even considering the likely high price due to limited production, limited imports, and punitive taxes.
4. It is preferable to buy such a bike instead of a second hand petrol bike.
5. Petrol is still easily available and affordable.

I think it's more likely that an electric bike will be decent and affordable by then. Li-ion cells are a quarter of the price they were 10 years ago. The battery in the base model zero motorcycle is now twice the size it was in 2017. So new battery technology has doubled the range, and drastically cut the price. It just happened incrementally over several years, instead of being a new technology big-bang thing.
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Howling Terror
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PostPosted: 01:37 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Solid State batteries look promising. Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are putting a fair amount of effort into making them viable.

From memory; They are lighter and recharge time is real world fast...something like 0>80% in 15 mins.

I don't like EVs...then again lots of people didn't like diesel locomotives and preferred the excitement of steam engines.

2/ vs 4/ ...I mean what sounds better than a 2 stroke in full song.

The times rolls on.

Have to add that having experienced 0-100 in a Tesla it was extremely addictive.

Does anyone here know if the UK are playing their part in battery power as it's an industry that would be an much needed string to the uk bow.
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grr666
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PostPosted: 02:28 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why can't we have both? If you want an electric car then buy one, if you don't then buy an ICE car. What irks me
about all this is someone else deciding on my behalf what I should buy. I drive a modern 2.0 petrol car with a very
ordinary 120bhp, it gives me well over 50mpg on a run and over 40 around town. On it's last MOT it produced
zero readable emissions on both the idle and fast idle tests. It says 0% on my certificate. It's not remapped now nor
will it ever be because I'm happy with it's performance and even happier with it's economy. It's not killing any polar
bears and it's barely feeding trees. If say 30% of conventional engine car drivers change through their own choice
and buy electric cars then that's still about 10 million fewer ICE engined cars on the road. I'm sure they are
ideal for a great many people and if that's you then great, crack on. It's the pushing them on people that pisses
me off and the relentless attempts to legislate you into one regardless of what you might want to spend your money on.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 09:21 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

They are very light on info about what happens to commercial diesels not just HGVs but pickups and big vans that need to tow up to 3.5 tons regularly.
Fairies will just make all that stuff they haven't even thought about continue to get done I expect
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Robby
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PostPosted: 09:41 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Howling Terror wrote:

Does anyone here know if the UK are playing their part in battery power as it's an industry that would be an much needed string to the uk bow.


Yes and no. A fair bit of R&D happens here, generally as part of much larger international collaborations.

Large scale battery manufacturing does not happen here. There was an attempt with the britishvolt factory, but it went bust recently without ever getting going.

Batteries are a standard size, standard voltage, and must be broadly compatible with someone else's batteries of a similar spec. The only way to really make money is to make them as cheaply as possible, using a huge, highly automated factory. This takes a horrendous amount of money to build, and the ongoing profit margin is largely down to the cost of electricity, input materials, transportation and labour (although not too much labour, because automation).

China is incredibly good at running supply chains and providing state investment for industry. It is very difficult for the rest of the world to compete with them on batteries. Particularly when their batteries are good - not everything made in China is of poor quality.

There is an argument for having home-grown manufacturing capacity for certain applications where cost is not the driver. Niche products like unusual sizes, particular quality requirements, or security concerns (defence, utilities etc). These concerns are not big enough yet to justify sufficient state investment in a battery factory, particularly when we can still buy batteries from our allies and other friendly countries. The US is a big producer, as is South Korea.


Also gr666 - the emissions test at the MOT is testing for air quality emissions. Things like nitrous oxides, sulphur oxides, particulates and carbon monoxide. It is not testing for carbon dioxide, which is the thing that feeds trees and kills polar bears.
So your car isn't killing any children in the local area, but it is killing polar bears.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 10:41 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Robby wrote:
I'm trying to work my way through your mental gymnastics here.

As far as I can tell, you're thinking of some future date where:
1. An electric bike is not feasible for you.
2. It is possible to buy, brand new, in the UK, an internal combustion bike set up for biofuel.
3. It is feasible for you to buy such a bike, even considering the likely high price due to limited production, limited imports, and punitive taxes.
4. It is preferable to buy such a bike instead of a second hand petrol bike.
5. Petrol is still easily available and affordable.


1. I never expressed any opinion in this thread about EV motorcycles. Ironically they talk of phasing out gas-boilers yet gaslighting continues Rolling Eyes Irony part 2: I might have built and ridden more eBikes over the years than anyone else on this forum so it's hardly like I'm allergic to electric transport.
2. This is what the Germans are proposing, that ICE engines continue to exist but only for e-Fuels. (AFAIK only Porsche are talking up the concept publicly.) And there's less R&D in an ICE ethanol conversion than a new EV design. It's certainly a possibility.
3. A fancy, high-end sports car? Maybe you'll need half a million. Fifty bags today would net you almost any bike. Even if only the top, top end of the motorbike market existed it's still more accessible than the sports car market.
4. Again with the imagination! People spend millions on a brand new Bugatti Veyron, people spend millions on a vintage Bugatti Type 57. One does does not preclude the other.
5. Huh? If petrol was ten quid a litre people would still run down to Brighton in their fancy car and cross the Pennines on a C90. Unlikely to commute to work with 'em I grant you.

Quote:
I think it's more likely that an electric bike will be decent and affordable by then. Li-ion cells are a quarter of the price they were 10 years ago. The battery in the base model zero motorcycle is now twice the size it was in 2017. So new battery technology has doubled the range, and drastically cut the price. It just happened incrementally over several years, instead of being a new technology big-bang thing.


I'm curious why you find the continued existence of a luxury ICE market so threatening Thinking
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 10:51 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
There will be no money in it. The Germans may have ensured that they can be created but when the market has gone all electric...


https://i.imgflip.com/7zwc61.jpg
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 18:55 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Robby wrote:
Batteries are a standard size, standard voltage, and must be broadly compatible with someone else's batteries of a similar spec.

That works but stifles further development. You’d have to decide that the present battery technology is good enough. Personally I think it’s as good as it’s going to get, so battery swapping works for city runabouts but little else.

https://mcn-images.bauersecure.com/wp-images/60009/999x0/swappable-battery-point.jpg

Robby wrote:
I keep seeing people… banging on about alternative fuels and hydrogen.

I’m an advocate for biofuels. (Hydrogen isn’t a viable fuel except in rocketry). There are all sorts of prospects for fuel as a byproduct of waste treatment. Manufacture doesn’t have to consume food feedstocks. Formula 1 is into it, as are Audi and Porsche. However, the proles won’t be permitted to have the freedom of personal transport in the future. That seems to be the plan.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 19:03 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Voltage, size and shape can be made universal though. This is the biggest problem with supplying batteries across a range of vehicles.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 20:15 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Personally I think it’s as good as it’s going to get...


Nil desperandum my friend. Batteries might be limited (as in two dissimilar metals separated by a liquid electrolyte) but if you broaden out to saying the real need is for energy storage (which includes batteries, petrol, hydrogen, etc.) then who knows what might come along? Ultra-capacitors, quantum flywheels, the fusion reactor from Back to the Future Laughing
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Robby
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PostPosted: 21:01 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:

That works but stifles further development. You’d have to decide that the present battery technology is good enough. Personally I think it’s as good as it’s going to get, so battery swapping works for city runabouts but little else.



I think you misunderstood. Battery cells are a common spec, the most common being 18650 cells. Also traditionally used in laptop batteries - although not so much now, too big. They are a standard size and voltage, the development comes in increasing the current they can take on, store, and discharge.

Those cells are then packaged into a battery in whatever configuration works for the application.

Having a standard cell spec makes it a lot easier to compare apples with apples, and carry out all kinds of testing.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:18 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Haven’t you just refuted your own argument by saying the old standard for laptop cells was replaced by better (smaller) ones? Development is then limited to improved cooling and chemical purification but the basic technology is frozen.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 22:34 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's all this then?

Firms still forced to sell more electric cars despite petrol ban delay

From January, just over a fifth of vehicles sold must be electric, with the target expected to hit 80% by 2030.


Firms that fail to hit the quotas could be fined £15,000 per car.

How the fcuk can that work unless car companies actually refuse to sell petrol/diesel cars if they come close to their quota. So you can buy diesel car, if you can find someone who will sell you one? Jesus, the goernment is still comtrolling what you buy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66875554
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 23:07 - 21 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:

Nil desperandum my friend. Batteries might be limited (as in two dissimilar metals separated by a liquid electrolyte) but if you broaden out to saying the real need is for energy storage (which includes batteries, petrol, hydrogen, etc.) then who knows what might come along? Ultra-capacitors, quantum flywheels, the fusion reactor from Back to the Future Laughing


Synthesizing long chain hydrocarbons from atmospheric carbon dioxide utilising a low temperature chemical process which creates a proton gradient across nano-scale semi-permeable membranes?

That aside, there is a lot of active research going on to find a carbon neutral fuel a jet engine can run on. If a jet engine can run on it, by default, so will a diesel engine with a little modification as will an oil fired combi boiler.
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xX-Alex-Xx
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PostPosted: 08:11 - 22 Sep 2023    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:


How the fcuk can that work unless car companies actually refuse to sell petrol/diesel cars if they come close to their quota. So you can buy diesel car, if you can find someone who will sell you one? Jesus, the goernment is still comtrolling what you buy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66875554


But it's gone from "fuck off can you have one" to now "we've accepted your position, and you can have one as long as you can afford it. Oh btw they're now the same price as EVs due to the fees we've thrown on top".
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