China - New Superpower.

[Dan 4RR]

If China overtook the USA to become the worlds largiest superpower in a few years time, would this be a good thing or a bad thing to happen, with such things as trading and metal resources and the price of stuff go, etc?
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[gavin]

its a case of when not if.
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[bennett211085]

it would be a good idea to start learning chineese in my opinion.
I hate americans anyway so in my mind it would be a good thing.

[Mister James]

If?

I remember one of my first intelligence briefings in the navy, back when I was on the operations staff at PJHQ in 1998. It was a 'world threats 101' lecture, and it identified two rising threats to the western world in the next 25 years:

1) Islamic extremism and deteriorating relations in the Middle East

2) Chinese hegemony in the Far East, and their rise to superpower status.

Both are now coming to pass, and while the mad mullahs have got a few sneaky jabs in at us before the inscrutable commies, China is very much playing a 'slow but steady wins the day' game.

China is in a vastly favourable trading position in relation to the US, and will probably be in a position to dictate economic terms to the rest of us within another decade.

China is quietly updating its massive forces, changing them from the comically inept conscript army of peasants, to a well-equipped army with workable logistical support.

China is involved in a long-running and enormous espionage program, aimed at securing superior western technology to erode our natural advantage against their numerous but last-gen forces.

China is involved in an on-going 'cyber war' against western interests, and is believed to be one of the leading players in this particular field of conflict.

I'm not actually that bothered, because I love oriental women, and I've got one who wants me to move out there with her - I'll be a cheerful collaborator!
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[Itchy]

Get some coffee , this is another long one...

Its not going to continue forever , ie economic growth , currently they get all the shit manufacturing jobs , corps pay the people there very little there is rampant corruption and wages are often paid ONCE a year , (with many bosses closing down factories and running off with the wages).

there are two schools of thought:

Race to the bottom - where everybody works for a bowl of rice a day,(this can't be sustained indefinately as people being people want for more)

Race to the top , ie the use of value adding non transferable technology.

China is playing the game race to the Bottom which means once greedy industrialists find a cheaper country they lose their power , jobs move elsewhere. They are also HIGHLY vulnerable to our economics , we have an economic downturn we don't buy their stuff they have no market.

EU+USA play race to the top AND bottom , ie we can make hard to copy innovative products , and either use robots to build them like the BMW plant which employs less than 100 people , or place manufacturing bases elsewhere.


Think about it! , the EUs most advanced fighters are the Typhoon and the F31 ,JSF

The US is the F-22 (which costs wayy too much)

While China is still churning out Mig21s which have been modified by designers in Israel up until '89 for obvious reasons. the SU27's are Russian exports. the Mig21 was obselete in Vietnam ,


This also highly depends on another premise that China does not have a civil war in the next 10-15 years. Economics and Risk theory yet again , the Commie government says we have a new middle class of 200 million people. Ok ,

but China has 1.35 billion people which means 1.15bn poor exploited people and I mean exploited (slavery happens where they do get guys with guns pointing them at children ,internal migrant workers jump from job to job with just a bag of belongings there are no rights).

Such that there is a HUGE societal divide, huge societal divides when they get too big are very very bad. Esp when you get sneaked out videos from China where the council leader thinks its cheaper to hire a mob to steal land rather than buy it (when they refuse to sell).

Ok in the UK we also have huge divides but there is at least a minimal standard of living right? , even dolees get a roof and food to eat , China is absolute capitalism and there is no such safety net.

2 things can happen:

they want for more......

I don't know you but I think you are around 20ish? , go ask you dad what his aspirations were , then if he is still around ask your grandad what his aspirations were. You'll notice with each generation wants for more,

In the age of mass media you can see better things and thus want them , while in 1915 mass media was heavily controlled by the government and thus people did not demand or want more than their lot (in N Korea the government portrays life there as paradise hence there is no uprising since they know no different) , and are unwilling to do the shit jobs they are doing now , sort of like in the UK where we have a glut of unemployed who won't do £5.35/h jobs as they think it is beneath them.



or

Civil war/coup/societal decay breakdown

Considering poor people form the army there have weapons and that desparate people have no fear...





bottom line:

when they become #1 they will face the same problems as our societies do , somebody will eat into their core economic activities (like China does with our manufacturing) , and they will have to diversify into other areas , you'll notice when they pour trillions into research and have native designs not just copies of other peoples stuff.

the man in orbit used Russian Tech , the aircraft use Russian Tech ,

This causes problems though since they are not as labour intensive as manufacturing , back to the societal divide question.

However there is a BIG paradox if you are #1 in all areas whos gonna have the money to buy your stuff? (almost all industrialised nations have HUGE trade deficits).



To answer YOUR question , depends what you mean by good or a bad thing , supply + demand, HK airport required an obsene amount of concrete , the price of concrete and resin for moulds went through the roof.

A growing economy consumes more resources = Oil , Gas , Steel , Plastics , gold , paper , food , energy , water , fuel , electricity.

Hence demand goes up , supply is reduced , prices go up.

me and you being bikers --> Petrol + tyres + asphalt. = bad,

On the flip side China uses lots of bikes , China may one day build quality motorcycles to rival honda (not for a very long time), which would cost alot since their money would be very strong , which we would not be able to afford to run.

Bugger me that was alot of typing
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Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.

[Itchy]

[Handsome]

So basically what you're saying is I've got to get my arse back in gear and pick the Kung Fu back up.....
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[Dan 4RR]

[dransy]

Pearl harbour all over again
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[lilredmachine]

The US currently owes the Chinese over 2/3 of it's entire economic wealth. Where'd you think the money came from to go to 'war'? It cannot possibly pay it back. The chinese have already won, if they made a move tomorrow no one could stop them.
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Bikes: too many, too much for one man to maintain anyway.

[gavin]

[Dan 4RR]

So Itchy do ya reckon China will introduce some human/animal rights laws when they get to No.1?
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Humans....the largest form of cancer the world has ever seen!
Speed Cameras - Putting goverment revenue before public safety!

[Itchy]

[ncrn]

I think china is going to have massive problems in a couple of generations, due to the massive number of females being killed at birth as they are the parents don't want females. (china has a one child policy)

At the moment its something like 125:100 males to females, and that number is getting bigger in favour of the males.

It can't be long before china starts to see a population decrease that it will struggle to recover from.
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[m99dws]

[Kaben]

The child killing is nowhere near as prevalent as the media makes out.

One child policy is no longer such a strict policy, they just dont recieve certain benefits if they have more than one child.

Child killing in favour of males only takes place in rural areas anyway. Having visited China myself i can honestly say there are alot more men around than women, but there are also shed loads of girl toddlers out and about with their parents - the blanace will not tip in the one direction as strongly as you may think.

The Chinese government isnt so stubborn to enforce the single child policy so rigidly as to see their population fall through the floor just as they are getting into a powerful end game position.

Dont believe everything you read.

The Chinese government is going to have problems though. They are still a communist nation, with the "beliefs" of communism being pushed - they all still have pictures of chairman Mao in there homes for example!.
However the population, especially in the bigger cities, are becoming more and more a consumer population - wanting the capitalist life style, needing for improve conditions and way of life. (i witnessed many chinese walking around in gucci suits, living in tiny hovels - not immitation suits either real deal stuff in Shanghai) The chinese government is trying to cater for this whilst remaining communist - a situation that cannot work. They will need to do some massive rebranding and policy reform otherwise they are going to fall apart and the potential for civil uprising is high. (they are not just going to switch from communist to capitalist - they are far too invested in the one political method and would never be able to get all of the bigwigs to agree anyway)
The other Problem being that whilst the Big city populations have the voice of what they want, the rural peoples in central china are overlooked and will have the raw deal. These people farm the huge amounts of rice the country consumes and teh raw materials they use for their production. The rural communities will rise up if they dont get the few remaining percieved benefits of communism.

Anotherproblem is the chinese government officials are incredibly corrupt. In china if anyone speaks of the chinese mafia - they mean the government. They do look quite cool running around in convoys of completely blacked out Audi's though
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[ncrn]

[Kaben]

At the same time, we are taught things that our instituions want us to believe - and you can be sure that those facts were exagerated. It really wasnt an issue even a few years back. It was at its peak around 1996. Since then there has been relaxation on the punishment of having more than one child and im pretty sure there are even incentives on having female children.

Im not saying it doesnt happen now though. Its a more of a rural thing than anywhere else ( but then thats a majority of the population - so it IS a problem - just not such an iminent time bomb as made out by our fine A-level courses)
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[?]

[m99dws]

The world should adopt Chinas EVD instead of Blu-Ray

[Walloper]

Bad Thing.
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[CR]

China, what about India? And what about China Vs India?

One more question, the UK is supposed to be in billions of pounds of debt, I'm not really sure I want to ask this but who's the debt to?
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[Itchy]

https://www.bikechatforums.com/viewtopic.php?t=101500

the national debt , been raised before
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Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.

[Itchy]

[JonB]

Aye, India are as big a threat, however, they still face the same internal problems as Itchy pointed out for China. The recent Shilpa Shetty outrage in Celebrity Big Brother has ignited a class war in India as the separations in society are huge.

One thing India has over China is the relations with the western world, the UK at least. Hence all of the Indian call centres, it is cheaper etc.

One of these countries will theoretically become number one in the world, but I don't think they will ever be the force that was/is the USA, with the earths riches dying down e.g oil, there will be a point of the rush for new technology and renewable energy and although China won't necessarily lose (it has already got many Nuclear power stations) the Western world, hopefully has something more planned.

I'd love to go into this at great detail, however I have a lecture on the UK economic struggle and revival in the 1930's to attend too.
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