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Credit crunch and financial troubles

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Credit crunch - are you feeling it?
What are you talking about - times have never been so good
5%
 5%  [ 5 ]
Things are no different for me
44%
 44%  [ 40 ]
I'm feeling a bit of a squeeze
41%
 41%  [ 37 ]
I'm thinking about selling the bike
4%
 4%  [ 4 ]
The baliffs are on their way round tomorrow
2%
 2%  [ 2 ]
I'm bankrupt
2%
 2%  [ 2 ]
Total Votes : 90

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syl
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PostPosted: 20:59 - 20 Sep 2008    Post subject: Credit crunch and financial troubles Reply with quote

Are you feeling it? I know I am despite earning a good wage.

My house sale has fallen through (again), this time after we had exchanged contracts! I'm left paying for two houses and probably an uphill struggle with a large legal bill to recover my losses.
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Sparks!
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PostPosted: 21:01 - 20 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good for me at the moment, loads of overtime, not many outgoings, happy days.
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Ichy
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PostPosted: 21:06 - 20 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just had 2 weeks in Egypt and brought 2 new cars, looking for another bike. Ignorance is bliss.

Probably naive but I see it as artificial, just a way for the rich to make a bit more money by affecting share prices with the hype from the media boosting the general depression.
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 22:00 - 20 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

A blip caused by financial types who are like sheep and can't think for themselves.

One panics, they all do.

Mark
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 22:25 - 20 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

panrider_uk wrote:
A blip caused by financial types who are like sheep and can't think for themselves.

One panics, they all do.

Mark



I'm not sure I agree with that, ie a blip

But to simplify it somewhat , the banks all played a game of pass the grenade and it fell into somebody's pocket and nobody knows where it is.

I would be fine with a bank going kaput..

The problems are the bail outs by the government 50bn here 20bn there 5bn here and there , somebody's got to pay for it, guess who?.....
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 06:48 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

What other bail outs besides Northern Rock have the government paid for?

The Northern Rock bail out is effectively nationalisation so the money will come back long term and isn't a total write off.

Mark
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Icey
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PostPosted: 07:04 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't say we are really feeling it or are particularly worried about it.

Yes we've noticed the rise in fuel and food, but as long as you can budget around it and work out the must haves and the wants then there is no problem.

Or maybe we are just oblivious to what's happening around us?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 08:57 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Icey wrote:
I can't say we are really feeling it or are particularly worried about it.

Yes we've noticed the rise in fuel and food, but as long as you can budget around it and work out the must haves and the wants then there is no problem.

Or maybe we are just oblivious to what's happening around us?


How long have you got? , I keep typing up whats happening but keep going into tomes bigger than war and peace..

Here is my absolute precis:

Quote:
but as long as you can budget around it and work out the must haves and the wants then there is no problem.


Problem is ALOT of people can't due to over stretching themselves on loans (lies on self certs) or not being able to get new cheap deals, people go bankrupt , *banks balance sheets look bad, share holders get spooked by this they sell bank balance sheets look worse..

Government bails them out = printing money

Printing money = higher inflation

higher inflation = food+petrol+mortgages go up

This makes people who are barely making ends meet go bankrupt go back to*


This is linked to:

Government bails out banks = higher taxes
Higher taxes = people have less money and two things happen:

they are overstretched and some snap and go bankrupt (go to point * again).

森 They spend less, spending less means companies who loaned money to banks go to the wall, go to point * again

Companies going bust = less jobs and less corp + income tax.

This means government has less cash, which means tax hikes , which means people go bankrupt go to point 森

etc etc.
..

The utter horror is that once the banks have been bailed they will start yet again to loan out toxic debt, as there is no moral hazard.
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Last edited by Itchy on 09:11 - 21 Sep 2008; edited 1 time in total
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 09:08 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

panrider_uk wrote:
What other bail outs besides Northern Rock have the government paid for?

The Northern Rock bail out is effectively nationalisation so the money will come back long term and isn't a total write off.

Mark


The special liquidity scheme and the bond swaps for mortgage backed securities a few months back , all in all probably about 80-100bn in total....

And probably more to come since A&L & B&B are looking really shaky, to put this into context 2006/07 the income tax take was 157bn.


Thats not the problem though in that in isolation 100bn isn't that much its a 1:5 gearing ration vs the entire tax take or 1:13 vs GDP..

Unfortunately Gordo has been borrowing 50bn a year since 97 so debt on the books is + 550bn + 2008s probably 70bn shortfall.

Add ontop of that the 500-1000bn PFI liabilities.

Add ontop of that the 1-2 trillion unfunded civil service pensions and immediately it looks as if we are in trouble.....


We can't actually pay this back so the government will use inflation to erode the debt........

So that the debt is effectively less, the problem is the civil service pensions are index linked so if you inflate away the rest of the debt (PFI , current 1 trillion borrowing) the civil service pensions also grow by that amount...
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 09:11 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:


How long have you got? , I keep typing up whats happening but keep going into tomes bigger than war and peace..



What you keep typing up is absolute worst case scenarios presented as though they're likely to happen.

Mark
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 09:14 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not that I believe what politicians say but GB was on Andrew Marr's programme today saying that they'd cut borrowiing from 45% to 37%

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Last edited by panrider_uk on 10:10 - 21 Sep 2008; edited 1 time in total
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Polo
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PostPosted: 09:30 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am not feeling it financially but I work for RBS so don't have great job security at present.

No option for that on the poll.

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tatters
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PostPosted: 09:34 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bit shit for me for the last few months all overtime got cut and pay reduced by £300 per month so taking home half of what l was last year plus rent and bills gone up.
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ms51ves3
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PostPosted: 09:40 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not affected me really. The only thing I spend money on is petrol.

I'm just glad house prices are falling.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 10:17 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

panrider_uk wrote:

What you keep typing up is absolute worst case scenarios presented as though they're likely to happen.

Mark


Erm no that is actually what is happening now...

As said the least worst method is inflation , you just hope they don't fall off the knife edge and tip it into hyper inflation...

In that normally you can kill inflation with interest rates hikes , you remember the 1990s with 15% interest rates yes?.

They can't hike them as it will tip many over the edge and .25% increase on 5% is a much bigger wedge than .5% on a 15% interest rate.

Similarly they can't cut interest rates as it causes inflation as people dump the £ if you cut comodity prices go up since your £ is less valuable and you need more of them to buy the same amount of goods.


So the government have taken to holding interest rates inflating the debt away and fiddling the CPI inflation index and hoping nobody notices. The RPI and RPIX are fiddled and show it as higher than CPI, if CPI was correct my loaf of bread which I recall in 2007 as £1.10 should be £1.15 its not its £1.42. And thus again you are selling your children as per the Guv's post, which most people don't realise...


Plenty of worse things

Ie we could get Japaned ie 18 year slump

Even worse is we get argentina'd ie government toppling (probably the real reason for all the anti terror laws)

Even worse is if the government give a massive pay increase to the army and police.

And there are even worse things after that...
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 10:52 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well we'll see over the next few months but I'd bet on me not paying £10000 for a loaf of bread.

Mark
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WildGoose
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PostPosted: 11:00 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

No issues, just mild annoyance at everything getting more expensive, food mainly. Wage is reasonable, working for a company whose products could be considered essential to the upper middle class so unlikely to find myself out of work.

I live a fairly meagre lifestyle, don't eat properly (read expensive fresh meat and vegetables) work is a 10 mile commute either way at 50+mpg, don't buy much consumer crap, and don't go on holiday.
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MattHirst
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PostPosted: 11:31 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Things have never been better for me financially...was in hospital for 13 weeks getting full pay so managed to save a bit short of 4k.

However the result of that was i wouldn't be able to ride a normal bike again (won't be able to change gears) and now have to learn in a 1 legged car (auto) even thoughi had over 15 lessons in a manual car before my accident Evil or Very Mad
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The Shaggy D.A.
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PostPosted: 13:17 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

My main concern is boiled frog syndrome. Ever so slowly my income is being eaten more by basics - food, fuel, utilities, insurance etc., whilst my pleasures and savings spend is going down. At some point, all my income will be going on just living expenses, which is only a step away from not having enough for basics. Now if we were suddenly plunged into that state, (instead of the temperature slowly being raised) we'd be up in arms. If we were allowed arms, that is - we'd just have to make do with pitchforks and flaming torches now.

At what point will the average Joe notice, and do something about it?

Reading recently about the Great Depression, I came across the symptoms of an economic crash:-

Quote:
1. Credit mentality instead of paying cash. “Don’t spend money you don’t already have in your pocket.”
2. Rich grew richer at the expense of others. “Don’t pay someone else to provide something that you can learn to do or to make yourself.”
3. Abandonment of traditional values and frugality. “Never buy anything you can use – only what you can’t live without.”
4. Self-Indulgence and self-gratification by immediate acquisition of possessions. “Don’t buy anything until you have twice the purchase amount.”
5. High Expectations by gambling in the stock market. “It’s doesn’t matter how much money you can make, but how much money you can save!”


Admittedly it was on a God bothering site, so it's got a preachy twang to it, but the underlying message still holds.
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 14:11 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

To some extent the current crisis is a good thing in that it will hopefully make people think more about getting everything on credit.

Mark
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Kwaks
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PostPosted: 14:22 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not bad for me, started a new job earning 50% more than I did last year. Work away 6 months a year so have no living expenses during that time.

Only annoying thing is cigarettes are £2.80 a packet here and were only £2.30 on my last rig Evil or Very Mad

Do have to buy a bigger house due to the arrival of twins, but I think I'll change my current one to a buy to let mortgage until the climate improves to sell it. Thumbs Up
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Tristan.
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PostPosted: 14:27 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

panrider_uk wrote:
Well we'll see over the next few months but I'd bet on me not paying £10000 for a loaf of bread.

Mark


Thats a very clever bet, cos if you lose then you only have to pay a few pence worth of money.
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instigator
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PostPosted: 14:33 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not affecting me as such but I am selling my bike as a precaution so I can get out of my 5 year old overdraft and finally have a positive bank balance. I'm sure RBOS will send me a letter soon demanding that I get it sorted. Quite right too really.

I'll "maybe" buy another bike. Or maybe just put aside £500 a month for emmigrating in 2010.
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Al
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PostPosted: 16:17 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its not had a massive effect on me personally.

My old landlord did put the rent up but we were moving anyway, so didn't feel the effect of that.

My only real worry is losing my job, at the moment we're busier then ever and already booked up for the first couple of month of next year.
A couple of biggish local companies have already gone bust or cut right back, which in a way has sent some work in our direction.
I'm only really worried as it's a small company and I'm only an apprentice so if the work did dry up it would be a case of last in first out for me.

I'm a low earner but I seem to manage to control my money fairly well, I don't own anything that great or expensive but I still have enough money to do most things that I want, things would have to get a lot worse to cause me any real problems, for me its worth not having a flash car or bike and the latest must have items, just to have that financial safety

So many things are classed as essentials these days which is why a lot of people have got themselves in so much debt.
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Sparks!
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PostPosted: 18:41 - 21 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Al wrote:
So many things are classed as essentials these days which is why a lot of people have got themselves in so much debt.


So, so true. When I was younger I ran up a bit of debt getting new bikes, car, off road bikes etc. All stuff you don't need but really want.

Well I'm no different now, only I've worked like fuck this year and cleared all my debt and saved a considerable amount of money as well as getting 3 new bikes and a car as well as gadgets and shit Laughing most people these days aren't willing to work for things.

I've been working 7 days a week , 70+ hours most weeks non stop all summer, I don't want a medal but I get so fucked off when people assume my dads bought all my stuff!! MY dad hasn't bought me a single thing and thats the way I like it.

All things aside though, the above isn't really on topic as such. It's probably a hell of a lot harder for families trying to afford their mortgage, bills and feed the kids etc. They say food and petrol etc is starting to come down again, and Tescos etc are all fighting each other to get the cheapest prices, so hopefully things are on the up in that front Thumbs Up
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