Uh oh , Harare here we come

[Itchy]

Uh oh , here it comes...

Link

Precis Bank of England has formally agreed at a meeting to ask the government permission to print money.

On GDP:

* 1.5% fall in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008 alone equating to 6% annualized loss or a $72 billion loss in national income

* Compare this to the government's grossly underestimated forecast of a 2% fall in GDP for the whole of 2009

* British GDP has already collapsed by 30% in real terms if you take the sterling's collapse against major global currencies into consideration, i.e 2007 GDP of $2.7 trillion has now fallen to $1.8 trillion



On deflation:

* $1 trillion committed so far torwards bank bailouts

* Set against estimated 30% contraction of the UK credit market or £1.2 trillion + £25o billion deflation of housing market + $400 billion deflation of stock portfolios equal to a total credit deflation so far of $1.85 trillion



On past history:

* UK economy (i.e. GDP) contracted by 10% during the 1930's great depression

* Unlike the USA, we did not have a boom during the 1920's -- it was a period of depression (1918-1925) and then stagnation so our Great Depression in fact lasted for 20 years (1918 to 1937)



On government:

* Labour government has purposely allowed the devaluation and hence the destruction of the purchasing power of the British pound in order to save 1-2% in the officially published GDP figures (i.e. in nominal terms)

* However, this is a price of 30% devaluation for a net benefit of 1-2% increase in GDP which will still not prevent a deep recession from occurring

* This is the madness of Quantitative Easing which sacrifices long-term growth for short-term benefit.

* Britain trending torwards hyper-inflation



On manufacturing:

* 30% devaluation of British Pound was supposed to help manufacturing, however fall in global trade and demand has scuppered this effort

* Manufacturing sector is tiny compared to the financial sector and any attempted rescue of the former cannot offset the depression in the latter

* Crash in oil prices has hit UK North Sea oil and depressed our foreign exchange earnings



On interest rates:

* BoE rates now at 1% on the way to a Zero Interest Rate Policy following US policy

* While base rate is at 1%, 3-month LIBOR stands at 2.14% and the real economic interest rate is at 3.54% adding to the banks reluctance to lend and instead, hoarding government bailout to fund their balance sheets and the continuing credit deflation



On banks:

* £10 billion HBOS loss coming after it's merger with Lloyds TSB shattering Lloyds TSB's balance sheet and ensuring the prospect of further bailout in addition to the £18 billion already stumped up by the taxpayers.
* 50% crash in Lloyds TSB's share price values the bank at $10 billion which in turn values the £18 billion taxpayer injection at just £4 billion, a 78% loss in a matter of months
* The idea of taxpayers making a profit on bank bailouts is an illusion!
* And 2009 is going to be a worse year because Lloyd TSB's loan book of $1 trillion cannot be defended against by £10 billion of shareholder equity -- a mere loss of 1% of the outstanding loan book equates to more than remaining shareholder equity.
* Systemic nationalization of most retail banks is on the cards and that of Lloyds TSB is inevitable as it is considered to big too fail. Shareholder equity will be wiped out and taxpayer money injections set to continue.
* Britain is trending torwards hyper-inflation



On money supply and inflation:

* A key driver of the 1930s Great Depression is that US money supply fell by 25%, hence its deflationary aspect
* The current ongoing deflation will be avoided at ANY COST in order to avoid a deflationary depression
* UK money supply (M4) has risen to 16.6% suggesting much higher forward inflation
* Real monetary deflation in the UK approaching -15%
* Government solution will be Quantitative Easing, aka printing money, therefore a period of rapid monetary inflation still ahead of us
* Deflation of 2009 will eventually turn to inflation



On employment:

* Official unemployment figure has hit 1.97 million, however real unemployment is nearly 6 million higher at 7.86 million due to heavy manipulation and under-reporting of unemployment figures



On Gordon Brown:

* Gordon Brown Bankrupting Britain to Win the Next Election as UK liabilities by 2012 will exceed £3.5 trillion from £1.5 trillion at the end of 2007
* This does not include $5 trillion of additional liabilities should the government be forced to nationalise virtually the whole banking sector
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Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.

[pigmo]

Im wating to see which idiot tells us it will all be ok within a year or two.

According to a Zimbabwean woman, $10,000,000,000Zim (10 billion Zimbabwe dollars) isnt enough to buy a box of tomatos.
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Europes a cummin' - Lou Bupp and Ben Dover

[Skudd]

Mars bar and a can of coke are still available for under £1.50.
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Famous last words of Humpty Dumpty. " Stop pushing me "
Petty Anarchists look at "1984".............. The Visionary looks at "Animal Farm".

[ThoughtContro...]

[Skudd]

[pigmo]

[Phoenix]

[Hetzer]

[Itchy]

[Itchy]

[ncrn]

Is there anything that can be done to stop this current governments drive to destruction of the whole country? Or are we trapped waiting for the next election and hoping that a change of gov will sort the problems (I doubt it somehow)?
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Past: 55 Sym Jet, 91 ZZR250, 03 NSR125R. Present: 97 ER-5.
https://www.nsr125.co.uk - NSR Owners forum.

[ms51ves3]

I'm fucked. I have £1900 in the bank, I better get spending.

[Skudd]

I wish someone would change their metaphoricals as sodomy, rape etc are very over used and have lost their impact. Also I have have never been into a HSBC branch to see a Gang anal rape of any customers, nor have I seen any such action at my local MPs surgery.

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Famous last words of Humpty Dumpty. " Stop pushing me "
Petty Anarchists look at "1984".............. The Visionary looks at "Animal Farm".

[Itchy]

[JonB]

I must say I am ever so slightly alarmed by the new Banking Act announced this morning. Allowing the Bank of England to inject cash into failing banks without us knowing as they have made it exempt from the freedom of Information act.
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Be careful whose advice you buy, but, be patient with those who supply it. Advice is a form of nostalgia, dispensing it is a way of fishing the past from the disposal, wiping it off, painting over the ugly parts and recycling it for more than it?s worth.

[Kickstart]

[Itchy]

[Kickstart]

[MinhDinh]

When I first had my RS125 petrol was 94 a litre. No way in hell did I ever think it would be over 1 pound.
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Hit the G spot.

[Phoenix]

Petrol was 94p when you started riding and you never thought it would rise over £1? That's a bit naive isn't it, considering petrol has gone from 73p a litre in 2002 (when I first started buying the stuff) to about £1 now. It's not logical to expect it to stay the same price forever unless it's forced out of use by the government or alternatives become available, it'll never go down by a huge amount because oil comapanies have the right to charge what they like and cut production to what they like.

[MinhDinh]

I'm just joking :p

My friend said a few months ago "Everything has gone up. Did you ever think petrol would be over 1 pound one day?"

I said: "Wait, didn't you just pass 2 years ago or something? Swear it was like 94 P a litre"

Then me and his bro laughed at him like he was a retard.
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Hit the G spot.