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st3v3
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PostPosted: 04:29 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: The Earth, Science and Global Warming. Reply with quote

I'm not sparking up another green-thread here, but I've recently watch a documentary about Atlantis the lost city and one 'fact' it mentioned is that in the downfall/sinking of this city, there was eruption of an age old Volano where 2 types of Magma joined causing a freak 150Billion tonnes of the stuff to erupt.

Can that be right?

I don't actually believe we're going through a Global warming phase due to our impression on the planet; whatevers happening is natural and we happen to be inhabitting at this time - we're overdue and ice age I hear so it's all kiking off sometime.

But, what science is there to use and shut these eco-freaks up? I mean, I dont turn my stuff off, I boil the kettle if i forget i did it and I want a warm bru.. add to that my Diesel car and 2t bike I'm doing my share to fuck the place up. Laughing

There's speculation the whole 'electric car' thing is another votes scandal by our dearest PM and backhanders are all too common.

But, really, what's the science and belief of it's validity here? I'd reckon it's happening, but not half as fast as they say. That said, how fast is it happening on the earth timeline compared to humans as a species? Then there's religious nut views on 2012 being a world ending year - Will we all be dead before we see real change?
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smegballs
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PostPosted: 04:33 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting article I read here about electric cars.

It looks at the constrains in terms of the rare metals used to make the batteries used in leccy/hybrid vehicles. The writer shows that for X amount of batteries, more hydrocarbon fuels are saved by having a large fleet of hybrids than one or two leccy onlys.
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doggone
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PostPosted: 09:51 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Those cars tata are starting to make even now driven by compressed air seem a better option than expensive batteries that might need replacing after 5 years with an estimated cost of £7000
You can compress air in a variety of relatively simple ways.

A lot of vested interests are pulling strings behind the scenes in the CO2/warming industry.
In particular the windmill and solar business gets huge subsidy to produce what is currently hopelessly uneconomic power, but we must start moving away from fossil fuel dependancy for obvious reasons.

There has been very little measured warming the last 20 years now, which is not what the computer models we were shown predicted.
This makes me think they are missing out significant unknown factors or more likely they biased the models from the start to produce the desired result.

'Climate science' seems to be dominated by a surprisingly small number of people who seems suspiciously more like activists than scientists to me.
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daemonoid
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PostPosted: 10:02 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Re: The Earth, Science and Global Warming. Reply with quote

st3v3 wrote:
But, what science is there to use and shut these eco-freaks up? I mean, I dont turn my stuff off, I boil the kettle if i forget i did it and I want a warm bru.. add to that my Diesel car and 2t bike I'm doing my share to fuck the place up. Laughing


None, because the overwhelming weight of evidence supports climate change. Sure you'll be able to find the odd scientist or study that doesn't agree, but the prevailing opinion is that of climate change and human affected climate change.

Take a look here https://www.badscience.net/category/climate-change-denialists/ (don't be put off be the shoddy website, Ben Goldacre is the Guardian's science columnist and also writer of bad science the book).

Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of money and power grabbers furthering their careers on the back of it but the underlying fact is true.

Not to belittle you (too much) but your post shows me all that is wrong with scientific understanding in the UK. You base your views on the odd news paper article and what Doug said down the pub. You've not done even the first bit of research/reading and you have 'opinions' on facts.

Solutions are tricky though, all this crap about saving the earth by turning lights off doesn't work. If everyone in the UK reduced their home energy usage by half and took magic wind powered milk floats to work the overall reduction would only be 25%. Then you compare that with China and out 25% saving is wiped out in a day. We need a new source of energy and could do with it fast.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 10:08 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi

Basic science is that higher levels of CO2 will increase the amount of some wave lengths of light that are trapped, and these will result in increased temperatures.

But it is far more complicated than that due to many feedback mechanisms. For example, warmth leads to more water evaporation, which reflects the suns light before it warms the earth (and to add complexity, the effect of clouds at different levels in the atmosphere are very different). The assumption at the moment appears to be that these feedbacks will be positive (ie, add to the temperature), hence the estimates for temperature increase are in the region of 3 times that which could be caused directly by the increase in CO2 levels.

To me it seems that these feedbacks are very poorly understood, as the whole system is hideously complicated. I am not averse to the idea that increased CO2 could increase temperature, nor that this might have happened / be happening. But I would like some real evidence (the real evidence we have is very poor quality, and we only have ~33 years of accurate worldwide temperature measurements since satellite measuring started, with older measurements being of very variable quality). Claims that X is definitely happening and anyone saying otherwise is a nutter / denier / some other insult just tend to make me thing the opposite as the evidence either way is so weak. Whether X is claims of warming or cooling.

All the best

Keith
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Hetzer
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PostPosted: 10:50 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who gives a fuck? The scum at the top don't, the only thing that motivates them into doing anything is whatever puts more money in their pockets. And that's all the climate-change BS is, a money-whoring scam.
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angryjonny
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PostPosted: 11:02 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Re: The Earth, Science and Global Warming. Reply with quote

st3v3 wrote:
I don't actually believe we're going through a Global warming phase due to our impression on the planet; whatevers happening is natural and we happen to be inhabitting at this time - we're overdue and ice age I hear so it's all kiking off sometime.

I don't think there is any question any more that human activity is having an effect on the global climate. However, as humans are earth's creatures, anything we do is "natural". People who say "ooh this goes against nature" are talking out of their backside because we are animals, we were born of this planet and we are part of nature. To suggest we're affecting nature is to suggest that we're above it.

All creatures have an effect on their environments one way or another. We're just the first to realise that we're doing it and that there may be consequences affecting our own survival as a result. "Save the planet" is nonsense - the planet will be fine. It might just have to kill us to survive.

As for electric cars. Well, where does the electricity come from? From burning lovely dirty coal. Electric cars just move the pollution elsewhere. And the battery packs they use are environmentally catastrophic to manufacture and dispose of as well. A good-ol' oil burning car is probably no worse for the environment, over its lifetime (I have no real science to back this up).
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GhostRider
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PostPosted: 11:50 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trying to predict the outcome of a whole set of different factors which all fall pray to chaos theory seems like an excercise in futility. If you can't accurately predict the weather day to day, then how can you estimate it's effects several hundred years into the future? But yeah, as long as everyones getting paid, just sweep those nuisance facts out of the way, carbon tax anyone??

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calyx
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PostPosted: 14:08 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

doggone wrote:


There has been very little measured warming the last 20 years now, which is not what the computer models we were shown predicted.
This makes me think they are missing out significant unknown factors or more likely they biased the models from the start to produce the desired result.


They can't calculate sun's seasons for example.
It changes every 40 years and we have been aware of it since 1950's... Laughing

Our technology is not advance enough to make assumptions regarding earth's fate. All we do is mobile phones and transportation.
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fatpies
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PostPosted: 14:20 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Re: The Earth, Science and Global Warming. Reply with quote

daemonoid wrote:


None, because the overwhelming weight of evidence supports climate change. Sure you'll be able to find the odd scientist or study that doesn't agree, but the prevailing opinion is that of climate change and human affected climate change.


Thats not the focus, the focus is on who's fault is it. Man or nature.

daemonoid wrote:


Solutions are tricky though, all this crap about saving the earth by turning lights off doesn't work. If everyone in the UK reduced their home energy usage by half and took magic wind powered milk floats to work the overall reduction would only be 25%. Then you compare that with China and out 25% saving is wiped out in a day. We need a new source of energy and could do with it fast.



The problem is many solutions actually exacerbate energy usage. For example more insulation in homes! You know to cut down on energy usage. Except this makes homes airtight. So the inside gets humid and you get foggy windows.

So what do people do? They either open windows and the heating (my dad does this) or they use dehumidifyers which hammer even more energy.



Secondly, a lot of it is overegged. All this flooding we see is the result of stupidity. My geography teacher nailed it in 1992. She said they see that a river flood plain doesn't flood for 2-3 years so they build houses on it. Then when it does flood (it ain't called a flood plain for nothing). They all claim MMGW!
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 14:21 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm almost offended by you raising the issue of global "warming" after being outside when it's anything but "warm". Stop getting my hopes up, it's not fair Sad

Also, as part of the "big society", everyone should drive a big powerful car or motorbike to help warm the place up a bit.

As for global warming statistics, weren't these being manipulated by some Universities a year or two back? Oh, and I agree with most of renewable energy industry being a scam, it's just a scam for hippy/liberal/greeny types and so somehow acceptable to some? Similar perhaps the the way environmental campaigners chug around a great big old oil burning ship, or how (Soviet funded) CND campaigners turn fields in to virtual sewers?

smegballs wrote:
Interesting article I read here about electric cars.

It looks at the constrains in terms of the rare metals used to make the batteries used in leccy/hybrid vehicles. The writer shows that for X amount of batteries, more hydrocarbon fuels are saved by having a large fleet of hybrids than one or two leccy onlys.


I'm all in favour of developing much better batteries, but they should be applied to phones, laptops, mp3 players and other useful applications.
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Robby
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PostPosted: 14:34 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whether or not MMGW is true, it makes a good excuse to work on getting solutions in place that do not rely on fossil fuels.

Developing, building and testing these solutions is expensive and time consuming. Most green electricity generation is currently mostly a large and costly experiment, to see what works and what could be reasonably improved to be useful. This is starting to show some promise - wind turbines were the big thing for the last decade or so, but found to not perform too well. Offshore wind looks more promising, although it will need more efficient turbines and sturdier structures to be really worthwhile. Solar, which for years was a real waste of time, has shown strong development in recent years. Wave/tidal makes the most sense to me - water is always moving - but it is very expensive to build. Try building an extremely solid structure, under water, in a place where the tide is very strong.

The same goes for battery technology. Currently batteries are a bit crap. The energy density isn't good enough, they cost far too much to make, and cost too much to recycle. Development over the last decade have mostly involved gradual improvements in existing tech, rather than new breakthrough tech. If someone had told you 10 years ago that your mobile phone in 2012 would still need to be charged every couple of days, you would laugh at them.

A few breakthroughs will make a big difference, but they won't happen without massive investment, which won't happen without a MMGW agenda. A working solar-steam array that can be manufactured and operated for an equivalent price/KWh to an existing gas-fired power station would be such a breakthrough. A battery or fuel cell tech that uses something seawater and graphite or cardboard would also be useful. Nuclear fusion would solve a lot of problems, providing enough clean energy to make hydrogen from seawater a practicality, but that is a long way off yet. We may see a working prototype by 2050, some of us may see it rolled out globally during our lifetimes. Something needs to fill the gap between fossil fuels getting too expensive, and that sort of tech happening.
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daemonoid
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PostPosted: 14:55 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Re: The Earth, Science and Global Warming. Reply with quote

fatpies wrote:
daemonoid wrote:


None, because the overwhelming weight of evidence supports climate change. Sure you'll be able to find the odd scientist or study that doesn't agree, but the prevailing opinion is that of climate change and human affected climate change.


Thats not the focus, the focus is on who's fault is it. Man or nature.


Made bolder for your reading pleasure Wink

fatpies wrote:
The problem is many solutions actually exacerbate energy usage. For example more insulation in homes! You know to cut down on energy usage. Except this makes homes airtight. So the inside gets humid and you get foggy windows.

So what do people do? They either open windows and the heating (my dad does this) or they use dehumidifyers which hammer even more energy.

Secondly, a lot of it is overegged. All this flooding we see is the result of stupidity. My geography teacher nailed it in 1992. She said they see that a river flood plain doesn't flood for 2-3 years so they build houses on it. Then when it does flood (it ain't called a flood plain for nothing). They all claim MMGW!


Right about both of these. The second point doesn't discount the fact that there are clear signs of generalised warming - the ice shelf collapse and reduction of both polar ice caps being the biggest sign.
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st3v3
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PostPosted: 14:58 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Re: The Earth, Science and Global Warming. Reply with quote

daemonoid wrote:


Not to belittle you (too much) but your post shows me all that is wrong with scientific understanding in the UK. You base your views on the odd news paper article and what Doug said down the pub. You've not done even the first bit of research/reading and you have 'opinions' on facts.
Not at all, the thread is for self enlightenment as much as opinion casting.

I've grown up watching Richard Dawkins etc, and got a fair idea of the universe, planet and how things work, but true enough only as much as the next man.

Johnny was right; I see lecky cars as a waste of time, on the idea that 'they're cleaner' - how so? my car converts fossils to movement via it's engine, these new age cars do it at the powerplant; there's no real difference except efficiency and that hasn't matter for over 50 years until 'now'.

If it was such a big deal why are car manufacturers claiming 'it cant be done' on a commercial scale but the old codgers on Youtube under "EVTV" have done seriously quality electric conversions for over 15 cars (watch the power from the AC Cobra). The real answer is it's not a money maker so they (manufacturers & g'ment) won't officially back the concept.

Las Vegas, Times Square and China are 'turned on' 24/7, me forgetting the living room light overnight won't do anything Rolling Eyes Laughing but thousands are spent on advertising drilling this point home.

what's the true likelihood of us being killed off in the next 50 years, or is that as preditable as the wind changes?
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mistergixer
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PostPosted: 15:17 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Global warming = ice caps reduce, sea levels rise.

Problem?

Nope. What do you want to do on a nice hot day? I like to go to the seaside. Thanks to global warming you'll have more hot days and the seaside will be right on your doorstep*.

Thumbs Up

* Shamelessly stolen from Johnny Vegas.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 15:20 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

The issue is this: even if you and I beggar ourselves, in the time it took to read this, India and China produced another 7,438,593 babies and 2,394 coal fired power plants (more or less) and they Do. Not. Give. A. Damn.

The new industrial economies are a long way away from being rich enough that they can actually con their populace into wanting to be povs, so we should just buy some wellies and sandbags and get ready for the Flood.
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daemonoid
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PostPosted: 15:38 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
The issue is this: even if you and I beggar ourselves, in the time it took to read this, India and China produced another 7,438,593 babies and 2,394 coal fired power plants (more or less) and they Do. Not. Give. A. Damn.


What are you basing those numbers on?

Thinking about China, they have the one child per family rule but actually have a birth rate of 1.4 children per family (below the 2.1 that leads to a sustained population) - https://www.economist.com/node/18651512

2394 is a lot of power plants to build in a short time, even if I am an incredibly slow reader!
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Robby
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PostPosted: 15:46 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

The India and China argument is always a fun one.

They are rapidly industrialising countries with a high birth rate. They need more electricity and resources. They are not, however, all that rich in terms in GDP/capita. This means that they will do whatever is cheapest.

If a UK company has a breakthrough in any clean tech and copyrights it, they can sell it internationally. Combined wiith the ongoing international push to get all countries signed up to a legally binding agreement that will require clean tech, the UK can make a lot of money out of this.

Still, trying to explain the big picture to Steve is like trying to explain Newton's laws to my cats; all you get is a glassy stare until they go off and find some food.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 15:56 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Robby wrote:
Whether or not MMGW is true, it makes a good excuse to work on getting solutions in place that do not rely on fossil fuels.


Trouble is that partly through taxes supported by the idea of MMGW we have pushed the industries that might make a profit on these schemes to set up in other countries, and even jumped on idea as everyone else jumps off them (ie, all the hot air about making a profit on wind energy, when we only started to use them when Denmark, pretty much the heaviest supplier and user of them virtually gave up on further expansion).

st3v3 wrote:

If it was such a big deal why are car manufacturers claiming 'it cant be done' on a commercial scale but the old codgers on Youtube under "EVTV" have done seriously quality electric conversions for over 15 cars (watch the power from the AC Cobra). The real answer is it's not a money maker so they (manufacturers & g'ment) won't officially back the concept.


As to electric cars, the basics to produce one are easy. Having one that is a useful form of transport for the average user (who will often want to do 100+ mile trips) is difficult, and with short ranges and long recharge periods that shows no sign of changing. Having an electric car for short distance use if you also need another car for real use isn't practical.

If the makers could come up with a practical electric car (300 mile range, 10 minutes max recharge time without killing the battery packs, and batteries with a life expectancy of 10 years at an absolute min even when abused with 20 years being common) then they would easily make money on them (well, until the loss of fuel taxes hit the government and they hiked a tax on electricity). Current technology is so far from that level that there is no chance of it happening in any time frame that would show a return on investment to the investors grand children, let alone the actual investor.

All the best

Keith
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 16:57 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

daemonoid wrote:
Rogerborg wrote:
The issue is this: even if you and I beggar ourselves, in the time it took to read this, India and China produced another 7,438,593 babies and 2,394 coal fired power plants (more or less) and they Do. Not. Give. A. Damn.


What are you basing those numbers on?


Daily Mailmaths. Rolling Eyes

OK, it's not so much the birth rate, it's the thirst for energy and resources. We can't tell Indian and Chinese peasants that they're better off without fridges, washing machines and massive plasma tellys, at least not with a straight face. They're making them, they know exactly how many we get through.
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el_oso
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PostPosted: 17:19 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

the only way we will be able to sustain the power requirements we need is with nuclear power. nature figured this out ages ago, and is the thing that powers our entire universe.
Trouble is, our current understanding of the atom and the way it behaves is still largely unknown. to this day the only atom that can be fully understood is a single hydrogen atom.
There is so much energy contained within the atom that using atoms as a source of energy may become so cheap that no one would be willing to invest the time and the money needed to make such a low return if any at all.
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ThoughtContro...
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PostPosted: 20:17 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Considering the upset to TPTB and their corporations that mere digital duplication and the resultant "free software", "free music" and "free films" causes, I can't ever see "free (or even dirt cheap) energy" being let out of the bag. Mr Rockefeller may consider himself a "philanthropist", but I can't see him ever giving up the power and control that the oil monopoly brings. Dream on.
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waffles
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PostPosted: 21:15 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Re: The Earth, Science and Global Warming. Reply with quote

st3v3 wrote:
I'm not sparking up another green-thread here, but I've recently watch a documentary about Atlantis the lost city and one 'fact' it mentioned is that in the downfall/sinking of this city, there was eruption of an age old Volano where 2 types of Magma joined causing a freak 150Billion tonnes of the stuff to erupt.


Plato's account of Atlantis seems to point that the destruction of the town was caused by the eruption of Santorini, Greece. The island of Thera (or Santorini) is a caldera volcano, whats left of it looks like a C with a new crater beginning to emerge in the centre of it. Geological evidence shows that the island was literally blown apart by a massive eruption (like Krakatoa) which ejected 60km³ of material and triggered earthquakes and a large tsunami which removed everything on land for several hundred miles roughly in 1500BC. That fits in fairly well with Plato's description of multiple earthquakes and a large flood Thumbs Up There are a few different types of magam; silica rich magma results in large gas/ash eruptions, basaltic magma results in smaller lava eruptions. Different types can and do mix but it won't create a freak eruption.

Massive volcanic eruptions do happen fairly frequently and when they do they can actually cause a drop in global temperatures.
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ThoughtContro...
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PostPosted: 21:29 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Babba wrote:
I'll sign up to this solar panel bollox & claim my 43.3p kwh yet not actually fit any solar panels.

I'll just connect my normal mains supply into their infeed box, pay my leccy bill as usual & retire to my own island in the Carribean on the profits.


I do believe you've been beaten to the blag by either the Paella or Pasta mob. There was an EU scandal a year or so back. They were feeding cheap off peak eleccy back into the grid, claimed as solar powered, and pocketing the subsidy. Got to pay back their debts some how I suppose.
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